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Coaching Queensland and coaching New South Wales might look like similar jobs, but are actually vastly different.
The Maroons boss tends to work off a more limited layer pool but benefits from a more supportive environment, whereas the Blues equivalent is presented with a plethora of options and a host of people immediately looking to get stuck in if their preferred one doesn’t get chosen.
It’s the blessing and the curse, and one that Michael Maguire is currently grappling with. He’ll be pencilling in names now, and if he’s smart, he’ll be starting from 1-17.
That’s because the fullback is where a footy team begins these days, not least because the style of 1 picked goes a long way to defining how the side will play.
Moreover, when you have the other vacancies that NSW do – wing, centre, five eighth and backrow – the way you want your fullback to play really sets the tone.
Queensland don’t have this issue. They have a creative fullback, Reece Walsh, and should anything happen to him, they’d immediately throw in Kalyn Ponga, a very similar player.
Ditto at five eighth, where Cam Munster could be replaced by Tom Dearden, also a big-bodied runner, or Ezra Mam, a similarly direct player.
At halfback, if wily old veteran Daly Cherry-Evans were to go down, wily old veteran Ben Hunt would step in.
Realistically only at hooker, where Harry Grant would likely give way to Reed Mahoney, would any stylistic change occur, but even then, they could keep continuity by calling up Billy Walters.
For NSW, however, anything goes.
Much as there are calls for James Tedesco to be replaced, he is in decent nick and represents the best all-rounder in terms of safety, yardage and attacking threat.
Were he to be dropped, it would likely be a powerplay move from the coach to signal a new era rather than form, because his form is better than it has been for several years.
There would then be a clamour for Dylan Edwards to get the gig, but that would force the Blues to go into the Panthers-lite style of football that they should be trying to get away from, because good as the Penrith 1 is, he really only works in that system.
There won’t be much campaign for Tom Trbojevic to get the role, given how well he transitioned to centre in previous appearances, though he’s probably the next best after Tedesco, if he isn’t straight up the best fullback available.
Edwards backers love to quote his enormous running metre stats, but like most people who don’t understand how stats work in rugby league, there are two fallacies at work.
First is the lack of understanding of where stats fit within a team system and the second is using volume data – big numbers sound better, right? – when incident data is far more relevant.
Tom Trbojevic. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Edwards is second only to Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad on average metres per game with Brian To’o in third place. Turbo is fifth, Tedesco 13th.
On post-contact, however, Edwards is last of the three NSW options and his pre-contact metres – aka the free ones he gets – tell the tale.
Take out the kick returns and suddenly it’s Tedesco first, Turbo second and Edwards last in the ranking.
Tedesco and Trbojevic are essentially the same as a yardage prospect, while Edwards is actually the worst when you control for the structural advantages that he gets by dint of playing for the Panthers.
Perhaps at better way of thinking of it would not be how much Edwards gains, but what Tedesco and Trbojevic lose: how many more metres would they get if they taking runs from behind a dominant pack that forced an opponent into a long kick?
Turbo is already third among fullbacks, and that’s from a Manly side that is conceding far more ground, which means opponents get better kicks, which gives him less chance to return them for free metres.
In Origin, where you’d expect the battle to be a lot more balanced than the average Panthers game is, who would you rather have?
That’s the question Maguire has to answer, because on the other aspects, Edwards is a clear third best.
He creates a break once every 51 possessions, compared to every 32 for Turbo and 27 for Teddy.
He makes a break himself once every 102 possessions, compared to 49 for Teddy and 40 for Turbo.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
The only area Edwards is a clear statistical leader is in errors, of which he has the fewest, but that is a double edged sword as far as fullbacks are concerned.
His defensive error rate is very low – he defuses bombs at the highest rate and catches the most kicks on the full – but his attacking error rate is also very low, which is not a good thing.
There’s a pretty much straight line correlation between attacking errors and attacking success, with the current top five in the comp for mistakes being Zac Lomax, Turbo, Hunt, Izack Tago and Reece Walsh. It’s a club you want to be in.
It’s a philosophical question for Maguire to answer.
Invariably he’ll want to do the usual complete high, keep it tight game plan that Origin coaches love, but he’ll also want a player capable of breaking open a tight game when the moment comes.
Is that Edwards, Trbojevic or Tedesco? The stats are pretty clear.
There is also the flow on effect that comes from who your fullback is.
We know that Nathan Cleary will be the 7 and, given Cameron Murray’s injury, it would be amazing were Isaah Yeo not the 13. Api Koroisau, if fit, will almost certainly be the 9, at least to start the game.
If Edwards then comes in at 1, you might as well pick Jarome Luai at five eighth and go back to being the Penrith Blues that has lost the last two series, but with another extra part.
To’o, Stephen Crichton and Liam Martin are all in too, and you might end up with Matt Burton at centre, which would be nine from the Panthers system of the 17.
Matt Burton. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Alternatively, if Trbojevic was picked at 1, Madge could dial into the big, ‘orrible lot style of play.
Stick Edwards on a wing, like the Kangaroos did, or give it to Zac Lomax as an even bigger option.
Throw Jack Wighton into the centres alongside Crichton, move Burton to five eighth and you’ve got a 1-6 that is all yardage, running power and size, plus a left-right kicking combination with Cleary.
That would allow for a hooker and three forwards on the bench, which in turn likely enables Madge to pick both Jake Trbojevic and Cam McInnes as specialist defenders and rotate high impact, low minute props. Power game, anyone?
What about speed?
Teddy at the back, Turbo in the centres, Josh Addo-Carr on a wing and Nicho Hynes in the 6 opens up that expansive kind of game, more in keeping with what the NRL has looked like in 2024.
If Madge things Origin will be like that, he could use the likes of Hudson Young, Haumole Olakau’atu and Keaon Koloamatangi all strike backrow options.
All of it, of course, starts from the back. That will dictate how the sets start, where the threat lies and how NSW think they will win. It’s Madge’s biggest call.