AFL Power Rankings: Round 11
Power rankings are a strange concept when the rounds are so convoluted, but, I’m forging onwards. Back to a routine Monday positioning from next…
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Formerly AdelaideDocker (AD). Based in Adelaide. Live blogger, 2018/2019/2020 AFL Power Rankings columnist and Freo fan.
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There’s a reason I wasn’t upset about losing Lobb, not gonna lie.
On Freo’s run of wins, I think you’re kind of right. We absolutely produced some great footy over that month, but there’s no denying we got lucky in terms of opposition injuries. In saying that, that’s the incredibly frustrating thing about the club – we’re wildly inconsistent. I’d love to understand the mentality that goes into beating some very tough clubs away from home and struggling so badly against teams we should be beating. Drives me absolutely insane.
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I’m at a loss with Freo, though I’ve thought for months we were overrated in coming into 2023. We clearly outperformed last year – there’s no reason we should’ve made it into a semi final, let along – arguably – finals. And yet, the tough thing about overachieving was outsiders had incredibly lofty expectations coming into this season and we’ve failed virtually them all. It’s almost unfair on the players – expectations are high, performances are low, criticism impossible to dodge.
I mentioned it after the loss today, but for the first time I’m starting to really worry about Longmuir as coach. He seems to really, really struggle to adapt mid game. Far too often, once we’re down 20/30 points – often early in clashes – there’s almost a paralysis in the squad and it’s near-impossible for us to come back. It’s incredibly frustrating as a fan to watch, and leaves us far too vulnerable. Carlton maximised that today, the Doggies last weekend – a strong first term, and they can virtually take the four points and run. That’s how bad the Dockers are at flicking a switch once in a game setting.
Thinking aloud, it may sound perverse, but the one thing we have the benefit of is time. We’ve still got a very young core – our two leading goal kickers, as good as they’ve been, are only 19 and 20 – and contracts wise we’re doing well on locking down that squad. Change the captain next year – Brayshaw for me, as Pearce is deeply unimpressive in that role – and hope we’re simply in a (long, painful) dip.
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Good piece, though I have little qualm in the club extending Fyfe and Walters’ contracts for next year. There seems to be a big push in getting rid of veterans for the sake of the youth – which can make sense – but can be silly when said veterans can offer a spark still, which both of them can.
I’ve never been entirely sure of Pearce as a captain. He admirably featured in a great piece in the paper over the weekend talking about his mental health journey including depression as he was getting the captaincy role + earlier on in his career, and while there is absolutely nothing wrong with that, I’m wondering if he never fully adjusted to the role and has struggled since then. I’m definitely in favour of either Serong or Brayshaw getting the role next year – both seem tailor-made for the role.
As I mentioned in Tim’s piece last night, the loss on the weekend was awful but I’m more keen to see the response. We have Essendon and the Blues over the next two weeks, so good opportunities to see how Longmuir can rally the troops against two quality sides (or one quality side and Carlton). We’re going to have to thread the needle to make the eight, so I’m thinking it’s unlikely, but a strong finish to the season is what I’m needing to see.
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Regarding Carlton’s win, there’s two things that can be argued here: one, yes, the Blues were phenomenal, but there needs to be more evidence than one win over a disappointingly flat Gold Coast. They’ve got a few good chances to display more of that post-bye (Hawks and a very vulnerable Freo) before facing the Power. Let’s wait a few weeks before declaring them back.
I’d also suggest that every take a beat before declaring Dew’s reign has ended. Today was awful, but he’s clearly developed a strong side that can produce some good footy, and for the first time in ages the team seems cohesive – a lot of that due to Dew’s work in bringing them together. Ridding the club of him is a silly idea – even with a coach of Hardwick’s calibre, I don’t think the team can afford to be making rash changes just when they’re beginning to legitimately gel.
On Freo, they were bad. Very, very bad. So frustrating to see – but call me a ridiculously optimistic, naive person, I want to hold back and see how we respond before getting properly angry. Essendon next week, Carlton the week after. Great barometers to see how Longmuir and the side can recover – even if, yep, finals are unlikely.
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I got three. Was lucky to have got that, given I was the only one to back the Blues!
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We’re evidently not a stronger team than Collingwood or Port Adelaide.
Brisbane, St Kilda, Fremantle and Sydney off the bye: Are they contenders or pretenders?
Haha, yeah, not a chance we’re making the top two. I’m thinking we’ll land somewhere in the 7th to 11th range.
Brisbane, St Kilda, Fremantle and Sydney off the bye: Are they contenders or pretenders?
I’m not locking anything in nor taking the winning streak for granted (I’m not even confident enough to say we’ll make finals), though you can’t deny our Geelong and Melbourne wins were very, very good.
I feel confident this weekend against the Tigers, but the rest are tricky to navigate. Optimistically Cam’s right about our next five games – if we keep up the form, we should win most of them, but the two that are giving me nerves are against the Doggies (your boys!) and Carlton.
Brisbane, St Kilda, Fremantle and Sydney off the bye: Are they contenders or pretenders?
Just a quick editorial defence, a lot of these would’ve been written before Walters was ruled out last night.
The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions Round 11: Why this could be the weekend of upsets
Losing Sonny Walters hurts, given when he’s on, he’s really on. But – unusually for Freo – our forward line has been relatively strong in the past few weeks so I’m too worried.
The fun thing to remember is we’ve beaten them in a similar fixture last year – which a better year for us but we played arguably a worse selected squad. Was my first time at the ‘G and the most fun at the footy I’ve ever had, that win.
The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions Round 11: Why this could be the weekend of upsets
Two weeks in a row you’ve gone Freo for the upset!
I’m back on board the Doggies train this week, made a mistake not backing ‘em against the Crows.
The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions Round 11: Why this could be the weekend of upsets
Breaking: Carlton to sack Michael Voss…
Only kidding. I think.
It’s a massive surprise, Hardwick leaving the Tigers. I’ve read it’s burnout, which makes sense – he’s been there a helluva long time. Probably deserves a break outside the industry.
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I’ve sat through many, many Freo losses (usually any and all of our Adelaide games between 2016 and 2019) and I’ve never left early. I was in Melbourne over the weekend and last night, had to double check the time left in the game by noticing Carlton fans wandering the city/coming into the same bar I was in watching the end of the game – sucks to see them leaving early.
I do admire the many fans this morning still wearing blues colours around my hotel (in the Docklands) – guess the allegiance nevertheless remains super strong with some fans through thick and thin…
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As a Ferrari fan in the F1, Carlton = Ferrari isn’t something I’d thought of until now but it’s surprisingly apt. As an aside, Drive to Survive is definitely a bit of an Americanisation of the whole sport, but it’s still worth a watch and glad to hear you liked it.
As much as I’m admittedly enjoying Carlton’s struggles, it’s impossible to shake the feeling they can bring it all together very very quickly. You’ve got a fascinating run to the bye though – Pies, Swans, Dees, Essendon, Suns. Your best can compete with them all but a worst case scenario is a run of losses, which it’s also hard to rule out sadly.
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I’ve confused myself by tipping for your boys. Didn’t realise I’d be the only one to do so – oh how sweet it (might) be to get that right!
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Re: the upset, definitely hyperbole on my behalf, don’t worry. Very much in the same vein as me suggesting the Blues “should” beat West Coast.
Both are close to forgone conclusions, but what’s the fun in tipping if it isn’t dramatised.
😛
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If that was the case, I’d be tipping Freo every single week.
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A ‘Gather Round’ in Melbourne would simply be Round 5
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Without the awful dissent decision, that becomes a narrow four point with with 10 more scoring shots – not a flattering scoreline and would open up more questions.
Not like you were the only culprit – both teams were pretty awful from what I heard! Kind of a bank the win and forget about the game kinda situation.
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I see your Tom Papley point and raise this Michael Frederick backflip celebration
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I was thinking this – but had already done my risky tips of Adelaide and the Saints, couldn’t afford to be silly and back GWS too!
In all seriousness, you’ll win. The Giants just aren’t a particularly good team this year.
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More intriguingly, Tim, reading between the lines makes it evident you think a team placed 13th or above last year is gonna be the wooden spooner this year.
By process of elimination, I’m thinking: Hi, Hawthorn….
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I wouldn’t mind that. Even if games against your lot still terrify me.
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For all the very good points you raise Dem, it’s the small things that most excite me about Freo and Fyfe looking superb in the practice matches is definitely one of them.
No captaincy, better pre-season = a strong, raring-to-go Fyfe. And jeez it’s awesome to see.
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Can speak from experience, careful to read too much into the wins. Not saying this from being salty about today (you guys were great), but I’m not fully reading into the Carlton for finals angle. Way too tough a run home for me (similar to Freo’s).
If you compare Freo’s month of wins to get us back into the eight/finals contention a few weeks back (Hawks, Sydney, Cats, Demons) and Carlton’s (Suns, Hawks, Freo), you’re doubly susceptible to the “they’re winning but against flawed opposition” trap.
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