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Joined March 2015
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Nick, a good and provocative article.
I’ve been wondering about this for a while, and I agree with most of what you say.
My take is that DR has worked out that the chances of having Cooper fit for the WC semi-final are 49%. 51% he won’t be fit.
He needs a plan B.
His plan B has to be something the whole team understands.
After trying almost all of the alternatives, he realises that they are all so-so at best, but he is stuck with them. Their role will be to get the ball to Kerevi and sometimes kick. Foley and Lolesio are link players only. All other roles to be off someone else including but not limited to #9. Breaks to come either off fast ball from a Kerevi surge, individual brilliance from an outside back (eg Nawaqanitawase) or counter attack (eg Wright).
That’s it!
If the 49% likelihood of QC being fit occurs, he has faith that QC will ad lib within the game plan and create breaks.
I think it is all about mitigating his losses and not being caught short with no Cooper in a crucial game, because none of the alternative 5/8s are up to standard.
ANALYSIS: Quade would've been worried watching Wallabies' attack on Spring Tour - this is why
Nick I think that Japan is the right spot for Oz (and NZ) re money. I think though that they will protect their comp and only allow 2 or 3 teams to join it. Could be an NZ based one, an Oz based one, and perhaps a Pacific one playing out of Hawaii.
No more than that, and ideally teams based around a company. Eg Fortescue Metals (Twiggy Forest)
It is far too late to expect the return of a Japanese club to SR. That horse has bolted. SR to be the level below
Already 20+ Australian players in Japan comp
Rugby in Australia will die in isolation. The only cure is to break out of the circle of insularity, not reinforce it
100% right Nick.
There are plenty involved with running the game who want to retain their “old school tie” power and links, irrespective of the damage it does.
They make “decisions” ostensibly for the overall good of the game, but deep down all they want power for the “chaps”
Rugby in Australia will die in isolation. The only cure is to break out of the circle of insularity, not reinforce it
Heaven forbid.
I wish we could find away to get rid of McKellar
CONFIRMED: England pull the pin on Eddie's World Cup dream as assistant steps up as interim coach
Thanks Nick
Re Skeleton, why do you think that DR has used him so little in the periods he is available?
I do realise that DR’s comment a week’s ago about starting Skeleton in the 3 matches he was available for was probably a throw away line. However I think that it was obvious he should have started all 3.
Skelton’s style seems to me to be 100% in tune with DR’s “brutality” philosophy.
Could it be that DR had an “unofficial” deal with Shelton’s club to nor over-use him, or could it be that the coaching group don’t understand how to use him?
Coach's corner: The combination of 'brutality and intelligence' that makes Wallabies enforcer a RWC lock
Is Harrison still injured?
If not, he could start with Donnalson at 15 and Edmed bench.
I’m assuming Beale on bench with Nadolo and Goddard
ANALYSIS: Time to pray Australia, because it's Quade Cooper or bust for the RWC. And when he's gone there's no one else
The general consensus at NSW was that Harrison was the most creative of the u20 5/8s, so got the job with u20s and Tahs. Donnalson his back up in both teams.
Harrison injury and Edmed comming on muddied the waters.
IMO Harrison more like Cooper.
Interestingly in u20s there were 5 5/8s to fit in. Harrison got 10, Lucas’s got 15, Lolesio got 12, Donnalson got 22 and one guy missed out. Donnalson played 10 in a semi-final though.
Apparently in u20s each of these guys we’re suited to their position.
ANALYSIS: Time to pray Australia, because it's Quade Cooper or bust for the RWC. And when he's gone there's no one else
Lucas’s was one of the 3 Covid-19 walkouts.
Only Rodda invited back
ANALYSIS: Time to pray Australia, because it's Quade Cooper or bust for the RWC. And when he's gone there's no one else
Exactly!
5 is a nice round number I think
ANALYSIS: How positive Tate-Nic move sparked Wallabies and why Rennie must develop more combos
Not sure about that Nick.
I’ve assumed for the last few weeks that DR would change a fair bit from this game to the France game. I don’t know if I read it or imagined it.
My thinking was that where he wasn’t 100% about a position, he’d pick the contender he hadn’t seen much of lately, but that everyone else was his first choice . I reckon the not 100% positions were 9,12 and 15.
I think now that 10,11 could be on that list.
I’m expecting changed at 12 and 15, and possibly 10, and 11.
I reckon Foketi will play
ANALYSIS: How positive Tate-Nic move sparked Wallabies and why Rennie must develop more combos
DR has already said that Skeleton will start in the next 3 Nick
ANALYSIS: How positive Tate-Nic move sparked Wallabies and why Rennie must develop more combos
Thanks Slim.
Mind you it only improves the quality a bit
ANALYSIS: Wallabies need three wins to be taken seriously, and everything points to a dogfight in week one
True
ANALYSIS: Wallabies need three wins to be taken seriously, and everything points to a dogfight in week one
Nick, no-one added to squad.
That means that for Scotland game we’ll play our 7th and 8th best locks.
The 23 will have 3 of Neville, Frost, Hannigan, Holloway. The H not down for lock will be at 6 or 20.
Counting injuries, suspension and OS unavailable, Rodda, Phillip, Swain, Arnold, Skeleton, Simmons all unavailable for Scotland. Improves a bit after that
ANALYSIS: Wallabies need three wins to be taken seriously, and everything points to a dogfight in week one
Agree
But, maybe replacing the #6?
ANALYSIS: The Pete Samu weakness that makes Hoops a must start when he's ready to reclaim Wallabies' No.7 jersey
Rumour that Australia A coach might get it….temporarily
ANALYSIS: The Pete Samu weakness that makes Hoops a must start when he's ready to reclaim Wallabies' No.7 jersey
I agree Nick, and these stats don’t lie.
I’d have Hooper any day at tackling time.
I think another factor in the most recent Wallaby games is what looks to me like a crumbling defence strategy. In the second last game our backline defence was awful out wide when NZ spread it quickly. In the last game this was even worse, exacerbated of course by Fokete going off.
I think that the absence of a defence coach is getting more and more obvious as each game goes bye since Taylor left.
Apparently Laurie Fisher is acting defence coach. He is supposed to be a “breakdown whisperer”, but that didn’t work either.
Could coaching deficiencies be contributing to Samu’s woes?
ANALYSIS: The Pete Samu weakness that makes Hoops a must start when he's ready to reclaim Wallabies' No.7 jersey
Good points Nick.
My evolving theory is that turnovers are easier to get later in the game (after 30 min) and tackles more crucial later in the game.
Perhaps a way is to start Samu, and have him go for broke, then replace him with Hooper after 30. Hooper to get any turnovers that are on offer and tackle much better than a tiring Samu
ANALYSIS: The Pete Samu weakness that makes Hoops a must start when he's ready to reclaim Wallabies' No.7 jersey
Actually, DR has already said that he’ll pick Vulavalu
UPDATED: Project Suli - Plan revealed for former NRL star, nine Wallabies picked to play Test strength Japan XV
Nick, I intimated in your column during the week that it might have been a deliberate ploy to bring McReith on in the 2nd half, because turnovers are more possible then, than earlier in the match.
Do you think that he got those 4 turnovers because it was in the last 30 minutes, or because he (McReith) is especially good at that?
ANALYSIS: How Wallabies' big body theory panned out at Marvel, and what to do with Pete Samu after stunner
The team selected suggests to me an abrupt change in tactics at either 50 minutes (probably) or even 30 minutes (possibly) following an all out onslaught on our ball to start the game. I can see us trying to slow their ball, and attacking via set moves off set pieces. Kicking will be mostly contested bombs.
I don’t have any stats to back this up, but I think that turnovers are more likely at the end of the first half, and in the second half.
I think that that is when McReith comes on to get turnovers and possibly Hodge to kick for distance. An abrupt tactical change.
What do you think Nick?
ANALYSIS: The biggest challenge facing Dave Rennie if he's to avoid another Bledisloe blow
I think Nick that DR has as tactfully as he can acknowledged that Lolesio isn’t up to it.
It happens!
Probably another guy (Donnalson or Edmed) in the squad when they get home.
According to stats someone put in a post this week, Lolesio hasn’t made a break or produced an offload against any opposition all year. I certainly haven’t seen one. He is a link man at the Brumbies, but (unfortunately), not much else
Coach's corner: Quade traits JOC must replicate, proof ref had a shocker and Cane's brutal reality check
But so might 6 Savea, 7 Papelli/Blackadder, 8 Hoskins Sototu.
Sototu a genuine 8, with all the skills of an 8, not just some of them.
Frizell on bench to come on early if necessary.
None of this to happen too soon!..ha ha
Coach's corner: Quade traits JOC must replicate, proof ref had a shocker and Cane's brutal reality check
He picked Harrison as the bench #9 early last year, but it didn’t eventuate, because a late injury say Harrison move to fullback
Picking the ideal Waratahs list for 2023