Cheers. While you would love to win this but if it is a even 100 over pitch – and toss is thus not relevant, Eng like Aus last time are as much of a favorite one can (when 2 good teams are playing).

Here is my argument of keeping Maxwell and (Oh god, Stoinis) – I don’t think Maxwell or anyone replacing him and cost Aus a world cup or for that matter win them from a dire situation. The performance of the order and the bowling will dictate that.

Guys coming lower down are the support cast – they could provide a late burst to add a few runs or handle their head and win from a decent position but the likelihood of such players making a defining contribution is limited. We all remember such performances in meaningless games but please name a few in crunch matches – a one-man show types! The very nature of the knockout pressure renders a one off performance hard to be a defining one.

So which players you pick for the support cast – well who are unselfish, who do what is asked from them, who are multi-skill, who have performed, who have faced tough siutations in test matches and have been playing at the highest level. Would you pick Wade in the 11 for a semi, considering the above?

For Stoinis, unlike Marsh brothers – I have no reasons to think that a few sexy performances are dictating his “potential”. Maybe the guys who do this for a living know that he fits the support role they need from him perfectly and although Marsh could very qualify, he has been out of the team for a long time now. If a number 6 is needed to build an innings by chewing up 18 balls for 0 – then the top order has cost one a game.

For all the talk of over reliance on the top order, the best players are given opportunities to hone their skills in the top order. When they go to A tours or away from their national sides, the teams still use them out of position. And barring few once in a generation teams where you get 5/6 top players, teams at most have only 2/3. An easy way to check that is their performance in test matches – I would claim the performance of a one day team in knock outs is most correlated with the players playing good test cricket. Knockouts generally don’t end up being 330 plays 300 – and a very different beast from run of the mill bilaterals.

And this is the reason the English team at present is remarkable – yes, they prefer batting tracks but even on good pitches, their middle order is more accustomed to facing tough situations (in part due the high-risk play of their top order). The same middle order has bailed them out on multiple occasions in test matches. Which is unlike say India where the top 3 calculatively beat teams in low stake games but have not performed thus far in crunch games. And the middle order is noway close to test quality.

To end, Maxwell has performed in tough situations in tests and has won Aus matches from seemingly unwinnable positions – this is not to say he will do so in semis or the finals but that this is the kind of player one needs as the support cast.

Dude, I am not an India fan or any other, I like to reason. I gave (similar to bookies) 1 in 3 chance to NZ. But unlike them I presented the readers the reasoning how they arrive at such odds. https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/07/06/which-way-is-the-world-cup-headed/ All the points that could go wrong for them, did, it was never a certain event.
Remember the last world cup – NZ had a 1 in 3 chance and 1 in 2 chance of winning the finals and semis respectively. Just because something happened, makes it a certainty only in hindsight. Extending your reasoning, you might have thought NZ had no chance at MCG and a 100% chance of beating the eventually fluffing, might I use the c word SA? But those were the odds by the experts, who make hundreds of millions doing this.
If you think 67%, place a bet on any site – the whole world is considerably wrong and you would be rewarded in a big way.
I don’t buy your opinion my opinion, all equal blah blah… Or writing from my “gut” or whichever body parts does the reasoning for one.
By the way probability and chance are pretty good life topics – if you like to learn – helpful in making key decisions in life, not just cricket! Few others who are commenting, I don’t think they ve the capacity or inclination to get it.
PS – The odds change as per toss/pitch conditions, weather etc. So yes a 240 was a good score in a knockout, under those conditions. But Kohli in particular panicked and tried to disrupt Boult while all that was needed to bide time and get to 80/90 in 20 overs, see off the new ball. I would think they had a day to plan this chase – the top 3 are making a habit of choking under pressure, while not giving anybody a chance in relatively meaningless matches in bilaterals and league games.

Jeff, I don’t take to the opinions which are written just from one perspective without even lip service to contrary opinions. And while I acknowledged in one of my articles that the 4th semi-finalist should have been in better form but extraordinary opinions/claims like robbing someone of their spot/purposefully losing a match etc require extraordinary evidence/well-researched perspectives.

@Deepak Ashes is a 2-month long series followed by ODIs and preceded by warm-ups. It can’t be sandwiched just like a short ODI series. Also, T20 leagues make it quite hard to find a 2-month window. And last year was one of the driest summers for England, even one before that and this year it is even raining in July!

Few points to add-
1. Roy and Bairstow will come out all guns blazing – nervousness will get them to do it even more so. It is imperative to hold on to catches. Now with the good weather and hence with decent preparation, the pitch is expected to a flat beauty – Starc aside the other 2 pacers don’t induce much confidence in me. Starc has to do WC-15 Encore!

2. Root coming off in first 5 overs is very different from the one coming in 15 overs+. He tends to play a flashier game early on and can be nicked off. As far as fab 4 goes, his temperament is the weakest by far.

3. Cummins will have to pick up his game, too many hit me balls in last few games. I would not pair him with Starc early. Pace on the ball without the meanness to back it would only play in the hands of the openers.

4. Lyon would be key (can’t even think of playing Zampa) in the middle overs. Stoinis/Marsh and Lyon will have to think about containing, being proactive and not as much go after wickets- with variations to lure mishits. The patience of the English middle order bats in pressure is not something I would bank on, something we regularly see in tests, bide your time phases in ODIs.

5. Maxwell will be better used in back 10 overs. Clear mandate not to target Archer but everybody else.

6. See off Archer. Steady on in the first 10 overs – the new ball attack from the English has been very good. Finch and Warner to follow the template of conserving their wickets. Only then they would be in a position to attack Wood, Stokes, Rashid. Target conservative, let the english nerves take you to par plus scores. Expect nerves from English while chasing – don’t overestimate their batting.

7. If batting second – target the 10-25 overs with tons of intent. Then play safe cricket to get Maxwell & Carey in the last 10. They use different plays to negate any slowness in the wicket.

8. Finish off Doff overs by 40, if it is an even pace wicket. If not a flat wicket, rather use Starc more in the middle instead of Doff. Start with Doff, so as to not give much pace on the ball, attack with variations in the middle overs.

The probability that I while writing this comment will be crushed to a pretty painful death by a meteorite is tiny but anything can happen! What in 1 in 3 chance of winning (on the basis of the present form of players) a match did you not get? – Probability definition of this statement is – if NZ and India were to play 3 semi finals – NZ is expected to win once, but nope they get to play only once – so yes they can win!

Washouts happen, get over it. The schedules of matches are decided well in advance and there is a risk to reward ratio. Every country has a finite window to schedule matches. Champions Trophy 2017 – Aus were knocked out after rains, India-Srl shared trophy after it rained on the reserve day too a few years back.

You, the comment shooting, nonsense critics are not the authority – people who are paid to do it, are professionals who have the experience, who use statistical models and who would be appraised on it have said they took the weather into consideration (and nobody can predict the weather 4 years before). They also have to balance the risk with disruption of other matches that will be played after the WC.

If a team, who has been playing in England for 2 months before the WC can’t play better cricket over 9 games, they (their foolish supporters, mostly) can’t blame the agreed upon method of tiebreak for their loss. Can’t field well, batters can’t handle and work out advantageous situations, bowlers playing for miracles, a captain who berates each of his players while setting poor examples himself!

Point of reference for future – if you think people will laugh at you, think about what you are writing, give some time, or rather not post the comment.

So India who hadn’t yet qualified lost out on purpose vs the no1 team so as to bundle out Pak. Who would you rather face in the knockouts- the no 7 Pakistan, the hopeless, the batters showed such little intent vs Bang on a pitch which didn’t spin or seam or the English, who have beaten India time and again in last 3 series? Pakistan – this attitude wouldn’t take you anywhere, in sport or in the economy, or in geopolitics.

There are logistical realities around the organization, ticketing, security among others – which are prohibitively expensive and impractical. While they could start with covering the whole ground so as to start quickly from rain interruptions, having reserve days for each game is rather impractical. Also, the world cup schedule is fixed 4 years in advance and the weather is quite fickle.
The debate around NRR to break ties is interesting (we should come up with a better method, but it will always remain somewhat flawed) but Pakistan started shoddily despite being the most prepared team this WC. And it is fair – luck plays its part in sports – be it tosses, umpire call decisions, few millimeters here and there but a team is given enough chances to make a come back in this particular round robin format. When they had the chance Pakistan didn’t take the initiative – be it seaming conditions vs Aus, attacking the part-time bowling when India was a bowler down, fighting it out vs WI, convincingly beating Afg, etc. So yes NZ is flawed too, but saying Pak were robbed is like politicians seeing fault in everything else after a defeat but themselves.

Think people have to start giving credit to selectors who didn’t value runs from Wade enough to justify his inclusion till now. They have been doing a pretty good job till now – Aus has come a long way in the last 6 months. I would respect their judgment if Handscomb comes in ahead of him given how he has performed at the world stage.

As Ronan indicated, the opposition was pretty mediocre, the scores indicate that the pitches were quite flat with the county teams putting up decent scores against a decent Aus attack. People play different roles in a game, Handscomb ensured that Aus A won those games, after explosive batting at the top from Wade, against pretty mediocre attacks, on flat pitches. These runs are meaningless vs runs against intl quality bowlers, which Handscomb has!

For those looking for a magic potion to win this WC – it doesn’t exist. Bringing players who have not have played international cricket in ages for knockouts is just a lazy bet. And that I think is the reason behind Stoinis – he is bowling ok and although he keeps providing middling returns with the bat. Maybe the think tank knows more than us about him and Handscomb.

Also, those who are in favor of dropping Maxwell underestimate his value with the ball – he hasn’t picked up wickets but he has been reliable and with some luck could have provided wickets as well as runs. The think tank could use him better by playing him only in last 10 overs. When the team was without Smith and Warner – he played quite a few responsible innings but now the mandate of irresponsible acceleration in a few games seem to have muddled his thinking. Every other game, he has been asked to go for it from get go and every second games, one expects him to play responsibly. Going after Rabada there although natural wasn’t smart. And they got to talk about it. Kind of making the same mistake they did with Finch a year back.

Simply put – they have not beaten any top 5 team barring SA! They have lost series away and at home to all semi-finalists – each convincingly. That makes a 2-1 series loss for NZ the most favored outcome for any 3 match series- hence the 1 in 3 chance! Math not bias.

The commercial viability comment is related to the fact India makes 70% of all cricket Revenue directly or by playing in the bilateral series. England’s doesn’t even have a free to air for world cup matches and editors on cricinfo have openly stated how regressive their policies for broadcasting the games have been. So yes, eventhough an English win could have potentially started a generational change, the lack of awareness among kids and outside of usual fans is disconcerting. While India on the back of the population spins out so many new fans, that a win for them generates far more financial gains. Which then translates into resources for Afganistan team – though I wish India does more to expand and help the game.

Any decent team that reaches the semis in this format has a 1 in 3 chance of beating the more fancied team. So over two games, NZ has a 10% chance of winning the WC.

All the talk about being good for the game etc is hogwash. The cricket boards and ICC have been doing a shoddy job of marketing the sport in countries where cricket is played and the even poorer job of spreading the sport – overall if India wins, at least it makes the game commercially more viable, that is sadly what one can aspire to!

It’s close among the top 3 with England edging out Aus and then India. If Aus somehow lose to SA then they will swap odds with India. But SA beating this Aus is a very long shot.

Didn’t he also injure Dhawan? Sir Patrick is on fire left and right.

Those who are surprised at this Warner 2.0 – He has been playing like this in all T20 league games – just look at what he was doing in Bangladesh before the injury and then in IPL. Yes, there were games where he got to a flier because of the weak opposition or an awesome pitch but in between, he was playing at 100 SR in T20s and costing his team the matches.

The quality of bowling is obv much better in WC and he is trying to take ownership of games, just like he did in IPL. It may not come off every now and then but he will come good – no doubt in my mind. His footwork is not that of the old Warner but he will sort it out but the time off the game will make him a better, consistent, mature player.

Good call Ronan. More than stats even in the warmups – the WI guys, otherwise batting serenely were relatively struggling against NZ spinners. In their matches against Eng – Moeen struggled but Tahir albeit expensive got wickets – which is the only defense. Lyon has the chops to take out Gayle, Lewis/Bravo – if at all they last so long! I will go with Starc (4), Cummins (5) with one over for Maxwell/Lyon in the first 10. Yes, there will be few edges and boundaries but with that pace, they should get past the openers.

Also, to budget 3 overs of Zampa in 40-50. And 2 each of Starc, Cummins. Things change ofc if Dre Russ comes out. Predict a pretty typical, heavy defeat of Windies.

It might have come off as such but I have reasons.

The form of openers – Rohit and Dhawan are both hit and miss and while they are made out to be a very good top 3, they aren’t close to reliable against quality pace, 10:30 starts – there first 4 opponents have quality.

I have concerns about Kuldeep too, while he has made impact against all batting lineups – off late his performance has dipped, whether it is players picking him well, loss of confidence? He might get into a rhythm but if he fails, he would be quickly jettisoned for Jadeja – which will weaken the team overall.

Then is the fact that the first 4 opponents would have played more top level cricket than India.

The no 4 is an obvious concern too.

To put it simply, if it were a stock market kind of situation, I wouldn’t buy India’s stock only if they beat SA in the first game. As I write their bowling attack restricted Eng to 311, with no Steyn, Morris.

9 matches are enough to avoid a hiccup or two but with India’s scheduling – I think it could end up like Australia in 92. With little ODI game time prior to WC, if they happen to lose vs SA (Who would have already played a tense match against Eng), Aus, NZ (all of whom will have a win and meaningful game time against lesser opponents) – it could be a tough road back.

Unlike England, I now don’t think India are a lock for the final 4. Tosses under overcast conditions add to the amount of luck too.

Exactly my point on Dhoni a year back but he has seriously improved since then.

Valid points Daniel. I think Dhoni, Hardik is settled with the form both have shown in the recent IPL. Many don’t respect IPL but Dhoni leading into it did show some form and carried it in IPL with some fine performances under pressure. Pandaya played the finisher role against pretty good bowlers. His bowling has improved too.

The main concern is of course the no4 and the form of Kuldeep. India has a pretty good backup for Kuldeep in Jadeja but an on-song Kuldeep picks 2/3 wickets each game and that in middle over is gold. I think Jadeja might play against the tough teams (the first 3 games for them).

The other problem is scheduling – India is playing the tough games right at the start – if it rains, there is cloud cover – it might just come down to toss against the new ball pairs of top 5 sides.

Just like everybody else. All top 5 sides have fast bowling attacks that can shut out the team batting 1st. But such overcast conditions and grass on the pitch aren’t expected for official games. The weather is expected to be hot and dry esp when we get into the later half of the tournament.

It doesn’t really matter what happens in this warm up – teams try their combinations, English batters will be playing without pressure. Also, Australia might open with NCN instead of Cummins.

I for one am looking forward to and expect England to struggle against the best bowling sides – Aus, SA, Ind – England are yet to play their brand of aggression against a very good attack. Their long batting line up could bail them out but it won’t be like that vs Pakistan.

Can’t say who among Bang, WI would finish 7th. So there’s a difference of opinion with the author. While WI has a better chance of causing an upset, they are more likely to have an off game against the bottom 3 too, balancing it out.

Braithwate – I don’t expect him to be in the team very often, let alone have a big impact. 100 runs and 3 wickets will be a big deal.

Their bowling is woeful, with scope of brilliance – say Oshane Thomas/Gabriel ripping up 3/4 on the bounce. No spin bowling to speak off. To back this up, their ground fielding is quite poor too. How would they win 5/6 games to sneak into top 4?

Gayle, Lewis, Hope, Hetmeyer, Pooran, Russel, Holder, Nurse, Roach, Thomas, Gabriel. It will take them some time to even discover this group – they will play Cotrell and Bravo instead. Yes, the batting has “hope” but the bowling and fielding would make up for any one-off brilliance. Their best shot is against NZ, Ind and Eng, unfortunately, they would be playing these teams deep into the tournament. Let’s see how they go against Pak in their opening game.

While SA has the strongest bowling attacks going around, the main threat to their chances is their approach to batting – stuck between the 2015 and the avant-grade English approach. On a side-note Ind, Aus, NZ are happy to back the 2015 approach with minor tweaks.
Faf advocates batters to go harder – akin to what Morgs did but the SA team has made so many changes and have tried so many batters – that they don’t feel confident in pulling that off in high-pressure situations. So their fortunes get dictated by QdK at the top – if he puts the pressure, the others follow suit, but even then his good 60-70s aren’t backed often enough.
The second weakness is the number of games some of the chosen ones have played. In the name of trying all the options for all positions till the very last moment, the selection was kind of a lottery with even Morris (who was pencilled in long back supposedly) not considered for first 15. Guys like Morris, Duminy, Amla as a result of that and injuries havn’t played top-grade cricket for a long time and all 3 will make the starting 11.
Coming to where they would finish – I think they are much likely to finish in top 4 rather than 6th. While the batting has problems like just about any other group, their bowling should see them get past NZ, Pak, and others in bottom 5. The batting is also strong enough to withstand the relatively weaker bowling line ups.