Sebastian Vettel on a hiding to nothing
Sebastian Vettel contested his first Grand Prix for the 2022 season in Australia, but the German must be contemplating his future in Formula One…
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Journalist. Formula One fanatic since 1998. I also enjoy running - nineteen marathons and a 2h 34m PB at last count, always looking to the next one! Twitter @BaydenJW
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I wouldn’t dismiss the prospect of Hartley contesting the balance of the season if he impresses this weekend, and the remaining WEC events don’t clash with F1. Certainly if he’s being weighed as a full-time prospect in 2018, it’d be sensible to give him as much time in the car as possible.
Kvyat being demoted once more is a sad reality, albeit it would be more humane to make the cut now rather than keeping him on in some sort of purgatory with no future in mind. At least Verstappen can rest easy in the knowledge he’s on course to prevail at Mexico based on the previous two instances!
This being realised would almost be cathartic for Red Bull, it’d be a roundabout vindication of its program to see one of its clan fulfil their promise following years in the wilderness, yet it would prove that outsiders are worthy of an opportunity – which Hartley has now been for some time, and allow it to reassess Toro Rosso’s purpose.
Why Brendon Hartley must prove Red Bull wrong
Ricciardo would need a guarantee that Aston’s entry is happening for him to commit, and to wait a further two or three seasons to be in a title contending car. It’d be unfair to expect him to sit around until that’s possible just to say he’s loyal when he is already in the prime of his career whilst others have enjoyed the opportunities for championships by being in the right place at the right time at a much younger age.
What next for Verstappen and Ricciardo?
Ocon is certainly favoured within the Mercedes family, with a strong claim also from Renault which has played a large hand in his development. Yet Verstappen is the huge carrot dangling which could supersede the Frenchman, the Silver Arrows would love to have him having missed out last time.
Ricciardo would in many respects be a better fit at Renault if they are firing in twelve months time, as he’d enjoy unquestionable leader status unlike at Ferrari, where Vettel rules the roost, though it would make for an undeniably formidable combination if it came to pass.
What next for Verstappen and Ricciardo?
It’d be a huge boon for Enstone if they can reap the extra income towards the future, when it can be envisaged that victories are on the table from 2019. Sainz still has a personal point to prove, so he has his own incentive for delivering. Kvyat has hardly held a candle to him for the past eighteen months, so Hulkenberg will be great stimulation for him.
Carlos Sainz must hit the ground running at Renault
Liberty would be loath to squander the local market, so you have to assume that OTT is coming sooner than later, and its move to restructure the present arrangement was immediate term damage limitation from Ten’s woes, regardless where the latter shakes out once the CBS acquisition is concluded.
Hopefully once this comes to pass, there’s an opportunity for a greater FTA presence to resume with any of the networks, as Liberty brass have mentioned the need for a hybrid offering across the mediums, and foremost a visible incentive to sign up to its own service.
Can Formula One survive a post-free-to-air world?
Interesting that reports have surfaced of Hartley competing in the balance of the season with Toro Rosso should he impress this weekend, with Kvyat returning to the sidelines immediately.
The WEC doesn’t clash with the remaining events, so it’s a feasible outcome. This would be highly indicative that the Kiwi is being groomed for a full-time berth in 2018, which would be a popular decision. Kvyat has had his opportunities, and hasn’t moved on from his Red Bull demotion some eighteen months later.
A left field decision for Toro Rosso in 2018
So long as all parties don’t assume success a la Penske is a formality, you can anticipate a relatively swift return to the pointy end of the field. If everybody knows their role and there’s no clash of ideologies, it seems like a very smart collaboration.
Walkinshaw's salvation lies with Andretti and United
Ferrari is the obvious answer, though Mercedes is a smoky considering his solid rapport with Hamilton and Wolff. Renault would also be extremely keen to get its hands on him if they’re on the verge of breaking through in twelve months.
What next for Verstappen and Ricciardo?
Calves can be pesky, the recovery certainly can’t be rushed which isn’t ideal with a marathon around the corner. Sometimes you just have to participate in the knowledge that a longer-term objective is unrealistic, and it’d be foolish to push yourself regardless. The Comrades’ caveat at least gives your run some purpose without having to break yourself.
I don’t have fond memories of last year’s conditions, the humid wind and the flies! Though current forecast for Sunday is promising.
Good luck!
My road to the 2017 Melbourne Marathon
Thanks Bill.
There’s nothing to stop you from going around again, people of all ages are out there each year. To have run a marathon in the first instance is something to be proud of, and to break the three hour barrier, especially so. It was certainly a moment of immense satisfaction when I did following years of perseverance.
It would be nice if they restored the original course sometime in the future, even for a one off. My grandfather also participated in the run in those days, and he was quite handy – his best was apparently 2h 26m.
My road to the 2017 Melbourne Marathon
The fabled Ferrari pressure has surely taken its toll on Vettel in some of his actions, extending to last season at Mexico. Mercedes’ cumulative application of pressure has broken its’ back, and they have always been there to capitalise – as you alluded to last week, in that their worst is still extremely efficient.
Where the wheels fell off Ferrari's title bid
It was a slow burn in the opening half similar to 2016, though the downpour certainly introduced the unpredictability lacking twelve months earlier until the closing stages.
As is so frequently the case, pole counts for little and Erebus’ consistency across the weekend whilst maintaining a low profile means the result isn’t as much of a surprise as it might be to some.
Bathurst 1000 key talking points
You could claim that Vettel’s brain fades at Azerbaijan and Singapore directly contributed to Ferrari panicking with its component upgrades and thus the past two weekends have resulted. It doesn’t excuse the team, though clumsiness breeds desperation, so it isn’t an entirely surprising outcome.
It’d be remiss not to mention that Mercedes has always been waiting to pounce on the slip ups, which were much rarer in the first half of the season. Now they’re turning the screws, whilst Hamilton has notably lifted his consistency since Baku – none of his synonymous ‘gone fishing’ weekends following Austria, even at Hungary he applied pressure to the Ferraris, whilst he required no invitation to turn a likely average Singapore outing into a maximum haul.
The title's in tatters, but don't blame Ferrari
The fickle nature of the race, it doesn’t matter if a car dominated for the opening 140 laps, it’s as though the race is only commencing as it enters the final hour.
Whoever is running anywhere in the top five or six at that point has reason to be confident, one safety car turns the equation on its head, so it’s purely about staying out of trouble until that stage.
There’s a good chance that this year’s victor will be a different combination to past years. Apart from Lowndes & Richards in 2015, it’s been a while since we had a repeat winner, so it’d be no surprise for McLaughlin or Waters and co to emerge.
Bathurst 1000: A clash of old clans
I can’t see Vettel retrieving a 40-point deficit if Hamilton emerges with another extended lead this weekend. Another victory to the latter in itself would be a devastating blow. It’s true that the German overcome similar adversity in 2010 and 2012, though Mercedes isn’t displaying any indication of suffering reliability issues, it’ll take some unforeseen misfortune at this rate for them to drop a bag of points.
It’s crazy to consider that Vettel led the standings undisturbed until Italy, yet his campaign has rapidly come undone since then. This weekend really is the point of no return if it’s another calamitous one. He doesn’t have to win the race per se, but at minimum he must take points away from Hamilton.
Is this the defining moment of the 2017 championship?
At the height of Mark Webber’s success, Ten’s coverage was quite excellent – they had a 60 minute buildup for some time,
Inexplicably, its commitment since his retirement has gradually diminished, to the point of halved coverage from 2015, to commencing transmission as the cars were on the formation lap, and now to a non-existent presence. This despite Ricciardo’s broad appeal and the generally accepted wisdom that he is superior to his countryman.
Ten's decision to cut F1 is shocking yet unsurprising
This is where the debate over piracy hits the spot. If something is available legally and in timely fashion most will settle for it. At least Ten was screening its races in HD so it had something going for it, yet if a product is taken away – immediately, with the only legal option to pay unreasonable costs for most, you can’t be blamed for sourcing alternative ‘means.’
Ten's decision to cut F1 is shocking yet unsurprising
Fair enough that FOM wants to protect itself, though you can only hope that they’re working on a solution in the medium term unless OTT arrives sooner than anticipated at a friendlier price than Foxtel.
Ten's decision to cut F1 is shocking yet unsurprising
Kubica would certainly be the likelier of the pair for any Toro Rosso berth, though you make a good point regarding Buemi – whose reputation is quite high following his exploits in WEC and more recently, Formula E, having retained his Red Bull ties throughout his absence from the grid. Wehrlein at Williams would be logical if Mercedes still envisages a future for him, though Kubica remains the perfect fit.
Is Felipe Massa the right man to lead Williams?
That’s the worst factor in the outcome, which can be argued had been coming for some time – to have the rug pulled without notice. The enthusiasm from those who are die hard fans sadly isn’t met by FTA in this age, you’d hope Liberty sees the need for a base level of coverage which functions in tandem with pay television and soon enough, over the top coverage.
Ten's decision to cut F1 is shocking yet unsurprising
For those who can enjoy Foxtel’s Sky simulcast, there are no concerns, yet it’s hard not to sympathise with those who have a passion for the sport without the means to invest, and are now left with negligible coverage.
Ten's decision to cut F1 is shocking yet unsurprising
The overriding bitterness comes from how immediate the changes were, Ten didn’t even have the decency to broadcast the weekend in question, much less the few remaining commitments this season. Whether another network would be willing to become involved in the future is something Liberty will have to consider, though OTT is surely the only alternative to pay television moving forward.
Ten's decision to cut F1 is shocking yet unsurprising
Kubica, or even Wehrlein, who have now both been linked to Williams and Toro Rosso, would be reassuring choices for either berth. The latter particularly has been underrated, and his return from the pre-season dramas to outshine Ericsson hasn’t received the credit it deserves.
In some respects, a Toro Rosso seat might be a more discreet way for Kubica to feel his way back into the sport without disappointing if he falls short. At worst, he’d plug the gap until a viable alternative is prepared to step up, or Toro Rosso sells up. Alongside rehabilitating Honda’s image, you could daresay it opens a window to a future drive with Red Bull in whichever guise it assumes beyond 2018.
Williams might as well retain Massa for continuity if they’re leaning towards di Resta as there isn’t much separating them on the surface, otherwise they have nothing to lose by opting for a youthful alternative if the Martini clause can be stretched – particularly with a little prodding from Mercedes if Wehrlein becomes their preference.
Is Felipe Massa the right man to lead Williams?
It’s chilling to consider that Mercedes is raising concerns – which again must be taken with a pinch of salt, when they are extending their lead each weekend. They’re in a position already where they can afford to take a back seat and avoid risks – as Hamilton did at Malaysia.
Further errors from Ferrari wouldn’t be surprising, and it will only realistically require one more slip up and Hamilton’s lead will be unassailable. Their ability to evolve and maximise opportunities without falling off a cliff as many have in the past is laudable.
Mercedes at its worst is still better than Ferrari
The Australian commentators are, or more accurately, were thankfully relegated to anchoring and post-commercial break recaps, and now it’s solely the direct simulcast from the UK whether through Ten’s highlights or Foxtel’s Sky feed.
Mark Webber has been a revelation as a special comments pundit for Channel 4, though there aren’t too many other locals, perhaps Leigh Diffey, who are world standard. I wouldn’t mind a handful of British commentators on the streaming service, though a blend of nations being represented – notwithstanding language barriers, would be far more insightful rather than the conspicuous love in for Hamilton through Sky.
F1 set to unveil streaming service, but will things really change?