The Roar
The Roar

Ben Darwin

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Joined November 2009

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Ben is a retired former Wallaby front rower who has been asked about his neck injury more than a million times by his reckoning. Yes, it's fine, thanks for asking. Ben was lucky enough to be involved with, mainly as a hanger on, some wonderful sides at the Brumbies and Wallabies. He works in coaching, analysis and media and has started his own analysis company Gainline. Ben's company tracks teams recruitment of players and how it impacts on their results. Follow Ben on Twitter: @bendarwin and @GLAnalytics

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I am thinking about how as we are in 2014 , where were Australia in 1997-1998? 1998 being such a watershed year for the aussies.
1997 however we lost every game to nz, and had the nightmare in pretoria. We started with a new coach then had a moderately good
EOYT to Argentina, England and Scotland. Sound similar to 2013?

Predicting the 2015 Rugby World Cup bracket

Thanks richard
, i am trying to not to use favouritism but projecting using the data that my company uses for predictive analytics.
Can you tell me the generalisations and i will try and refine them for you .

ben

Predicting the 2015 Rugby World Cup bracket

Strange , how that turned out , i tried to keep an open mind on the way through. I really like ireland at the moment.

Predicting the 2015 Rugby World Cup bracket

Thanks Chopper,
Whilst I think geography has some really strong drivers in the end people follow people. If you ask people why they follow certain teams it won’t be because they live somewhere but more based around a family connection or admiration of a player.

What can drive this is contractual stability. I don’t really know where green bay is but i know who Vince Lombardi and Brett Favre are.
The more consistency you have in a lineup the more people are likely attach themselves to the team its identity.

Emotional investment key for clubs to win over fans

Pickett , thanks for response.
i would say that this year barcelona were able to field a team entirely made up of academy players and were up 6-0 at half time.

Local many of them were not ,however many were very young upon signing. Is a player local if he moves with his family at age 12?

Ben

Emotional investment key for clubs to win over fans

Great points julian , the issues your talking about is what we have been studying for the past year . looking at all clubs around the world and which ones have been the most successful and at the same time not had to break the bank.

My question to people is this, how many clubs have one titles by importing players and still been able to turn a profit within a couple of years. What happens if they dont win?

We know that importing players costs more so lets say club a spends 20% more than the market to win a title. are the fans happy and proud then?
What about if its 50%? Where does buying a title get you in the 10 or 15 years after that? These are the questions we are looking into.

The rooster did have 21 players in their squad for who the rooster were their first professional club in the nrl. Whilst local juniors helps i think it is unrealistic in this day and age..

Winning attracts crowds loyalty keeps them when your losing.

Emotional investment key for clubs to win over fans

Jim i do agree the that the notion of the potential of something happening was sometimes the most exciting thing at the State of Origin in the 80’s 90’s. My brother was at Lang park though when the crowd threw beer cans on the field and he was with 30 other 14-16 year old kids dressed in blue fearing for his life.

Emotional investment key for clubs to win over fans

Boris , cant agree with you more.

Emotional investment key for clubs to win over fans

Thanks Bakkies , i am working on an article on the Melbourne Heart situation. i like a name to be organic. I found some amazing name yesterday on Philiipino basketball.
Talk ‘N Text Tropang Texters
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
San Miguel Super Coffee mixers
Whats going on there?

Emotional investment key for clubs to win over fans

Sideline Comm. , thanks for comment , i think so as polynesia is a group of countries rather than a specific one. I have just discovered through the wonders of google that Fiji is part of Melanesia. Who knew.
Maybe we would call it Australian xv vs Pacific allstars although i dont really like all stars. The reasoning for is it feels like state of origin is missing quite a few of the games stars.

Emotional investment key for clubs to win over fans

What about playing Australia vs a Polynesian side. A non test so you could include Australian resident Polynesians .

Emotional investment key for clubs to win over fans

Correct Train, i was coaching him at norths at the time. Good bloke.

Read this before signing: The clubs

Hi calum
We would take some general output figures such as tackle execution , linebreaks, then look at the previous seasons etc . There is two things that need to happen at a new club, the player needs to adapt to the new skill set and the players at the new team need to get to know him.

Read this before signing: The clubs

Hi muzz
They did bring on signings into the roosters , there are a couple of factors with every team but the key is the roles of player ie leadership or more simplistic and how settled the team is your moving into . The roosters have been pretty settled in their lineup. At man united ferguson never liked to add more than one player per year over 23.

Read this before signing: The clubs

On your above point those 108 were new to pro rugby .
so began super rugby post arc.
there were 231 players in the comp and 142 of those had previous super rugby experience.

Read this before signing: The clubs

Good chat .
A few more numbers on the ARC
Of the 108 guys new to pro rugby.
51 never played pro again
The below numbers will have some duplication
41 played super rugby
13 to japan
12 to france
10 went to ENG/IRL/SCO/WAL
1 went to the NRL (Who?)
8 played for Australia
I will write an article on ARC later with some more numbers
ben

Read this before signing: The clubs

Thanks Casper I would say the above list are guys who found it hard but overall just to promote discussion. Again i dont really point the blame at players , i think it is just a lot harder than people imagine. plus a lot of people remember the good converts but not the ones who found it really tough going.
Most agents are on 4-7% from my understanding.
I think an important point as well is this. If a player comes for 2 years , does well but the club doesn’t progress ie loses a good young player as part of the process. Is it a success?

Read this before signing: The clubs

Thanks Johhno a really key point in changing sides we find is how settled the teams are and the role of the player.
With Lazarus there you have the 2 components of the position and the teams.

Read this before signing: The clubs

Thanks Redsback from a cross code perspective i was referring to between all codes. I think the guys who do it well either have back ground in the game or do it early.Let me throw a few names out there.
Adrian Barich.
Karmichael Hunt
Peter Ryan (did very well but almost impossible given the role of back row)
Mark Gasnier
Nathan Blacklock
Ben Macdougal
Henry Paul
Iestyn Harriss
Brian Carney
Willie Carne
Timana Tahu
Clinton Schifcoske
Stephen Myler
Paul Franze
Willie Mason
Setaimata Sa
Garrick Morgan
John Kirwan
Tony Melrose
Scott Quinell
Brian Smith
Gareth Thomas
Brett Papworth
Nigel Heslop
Scott Gibbs (Far too short)
John Gallagher
And there is nothing these guys did wrong it is simply a very hard thing to do.

Read this before signing: The clubs

Guys lots of great comments.
Especially you Johnno and yes i saw your suggestions.

A lot of people have talked about certain players who have done well.

I once asked Sam Cordingley who he played best with at 10. Now he played with Larkham, Knox, and a host of other great 10’s.

The important part is the way in which i asked. “played best with”. His answer Nathan Spooner.
His reasoning was “we understood each other so well as we played so much juniors and club together.”

The key is that one some players will be successful wherever they go. However it has taken for most guys a period of adjustment.
This adjustment sometimes means they never reach their best again. Some never get the chance. On average it represents a risk and i don’t think a lot guys think all of those risks through.

There is no question for some guys changing clubs is the best thing they ever did. I did it but found it harder than i ever thought it would be and certainly found the same in coaching. I have listed huge rafts of examples of guys who have committed career suicide by chasing the dollar and then bounced around from club to club but it does do us much good to list guys publicly in this way and its not something i am comfortable doing.

i will make this my last comment on this article as my wife has already accused me of having an affair with “this roar person”

thanks for the great feedback and questions.
ben

Read this before signing part 1: The players

Hi rob the sort answer is yes .
We are working with teams now to create the best combination of teams.
We use a number called a twi which indicates the best available combination
For success in the long and short term . I will be publishing lists for this on here if they let me.

Read this before signing part 1: The players

thanks Chivas .

I dont necessarily think there are exceptions. Let me give you an example.
How would Beale have gone if he had stayed at the Tahs. We simply dont know.

So we can look at it player output prior to changing clubs and whether they get picked .
And on average we know performance drops off. And that players who are one club players have longer careers.

The french top 14 is a very lengthy discussion but there i a lot of evidence that despite budgets up to 5 times that of say a leinster of munster that is is not working.

A key point in all this strength of relationships. And leaving guys who know how you play is a risk.

Read this before signing part 1: The players

thanks Tane why is that ?
Happy to discuss but need to understand your reasons.
ben

Read this before signing part 1: The players

Thanks Johnno
Carl Hayman is greatly missed but struggled for a long time at newcastle and it took him a long time to settle in at Toulon.
I was coaching in Japan when SBW and Maa Nonu were there.I will leave whether they played well to your imagination. We found in Japan the guys who were dominant were guys you have barely heard of but are able to understand their role .
I certainly know panasonic played at their worst when delaney and SBW where new to the team.
Wingy left league as well as anyone could of. He came to my club at NTT and left for Kobe.
The reason Craig left from my discussions was that he was playing reserve grade at Souths and felt that japan would give him a different opportunity.
My Feelings on SBW is he is the best footballer in the world. But i wonder if we will be talking about his legacy in the same way we talk about Dan Carter or Richie MCCaw. But being talked about is not why we do things. I dont think he will get the best out of himself if he keeps changing teams and certainly our evidence supports that.

Read this before signing part 1: The players

Thanks guys
Some good points. The key issue i am looking at is professional sport.
I wanted to see if performance is effected. we certainly know now performance is effected in the negative on average when a player moves to another club.
To see the world and take those great experiences when the time is right its worthwhile.

Read this before signing part 1: The players

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