The Roar
The Roar

Bell31

Roar Rookie

Joined August 2019

446

Views

2

Published

60

Comments

Published

Comments

PS don’t know why my response isn’t broken into the paragraphs I set out!

The absurdity of NBA GOAT debates Part 3: What if?

As always, good to debate GOAT topics with you 🙂

I sort of know what you mean by people sometimes over-rating rings, but I’m not sure the 2 examples make your point enough — I think many see Horry for ‘who he was’ — a career 9 point, 4 rebound player (or thereabouts), who just had a special quality of stepping up in the big moments to make one magical play — I think he had something like 7 such moments in his career which were pretty special.

Also I’m not sure Barkley is under-rated – he was probably under-rated outside the US at least pre the dreamteam olympics but raised his profile considerably post that — career average stats of around 23 ppg, 12 rpg, 4 apg, 1.5 spg, and 1 bpg, put him in illustrious company (NBA top 20). Wonderful stats, but without commensurate team success, it’s hard to see him breaking into the top 10, contrasting mainly with players with 3 rings plus.

KG is a valid point as he seems to have wasted away in Minnesota, but I think that LeBron and MJ both waited similar years to have good teams around them to win a title (that Bulls team didn’t really come into their own until 90-91 when Pippen/Grant found their groove).

Generally, I kind of see nuance with team stats as relevant when trying to split the difference (eg, resolve tie-breakers between similar level stars) — I think the balance of individual (raw averages and advanced metrics) and team stats provides sufficient nuance — but you know I think that already! Personally, I don’t knock Le Bron for his finals legacy – he has 4 titles and that’s the main thing and also made 10 finals series — the only real relevance for me in that sort of stat is splitting the difference with the likes of MJ and Jabaar in the GOAT debate.

The absurdity of NBA GOAT debates Part 3: What if?

Thanks for your GOAT series – you know I like a good GOAT debate!

You also know I like ‘stats’, so you can probably guess I’m going to say ‘what if’s’ are slippery slopes and can also become circular arguments. For instance, I think it’s a stretch to say MJ has ‘elite team-mates’ — I’m ok with ‘elite team-mate’ (Pippen), and then you could probably put Grant in the ‘very good / all-star category’, along with potentially Rodman (albeit 1D). Harper was not really elite by the time he reached Chicago, and Kukoc was ‘good+’, but not elite. Then you can mount the ‘LeBron had Bosh and Wade’ argument for 4 Finals in a row, but only won 2 titles (if I recall correctly), as saying he didn’t lack for elite team-mates to get more titles.

Also, I think NBA is one of those rare sports, when the link between individual stardom and team success is probably clearer than other team sports due to numbers on a court at any one time, and so I think it’s reasonable to judge GOAT based on individual + team stats.

The Horry vs Barkley reference — can you clarify why this comparison? Whilst horry is ‘big shot rob’, he is not recognised as a ‘star’ (or team leader), whereas Barkely is clearly recognised as a star (and team leaader) – he has been ranked in the top 20 all-time (albeit his lack of career team success probably prevents him from being ranked higher).

The absurdity of NBA GOAT debates Part 3: What if?

Hi PTS – been sitting quietly on the sidelines watching this all unfold and reading all the commentary – Les Zig has certainly had a way of passionately depicting all the issues. I think there’s two distinct issues going on – the first issue is whether or not their trade decisions have been the right ones — I’m not privvy to the inner workings of the club, so although I can’t fathom moving on Stevo in particular, I’m prepared to bide my time and see what the club has in store. The second issue, however, which I think is more concerning than the decisions themselves, and has been covered in numerous articles here, is what appears to be an incoherent approach to how they’ve handled the ‘change management’ aspects of the last few weeks — it’s been a concern to see the lack of consistent messaging from the key people from the club (Bucks/Ed/Ned etc) which has just fuelled frustrations, and one can’t help but feel that the reliance on ‘football is a business’ doesn’t sit comfortably with the ‘side by side’ ethos in how they’ve managed the likes of Treloar/Stevo. It does remind that overall, they’re ‘just’ a football club — I’ve seen much larger businesses, with much larger HR / specialist change departments struggle to enact change effectively, and so it’s probably no surprise (although no excuse either!) to see a football club struggle with it. I’m going to stay-on as a member – to me, this is probably less troublesome than some of the other issues the club has faced over the years, BUT I think it can’t help but reflect serious leadership challenges at the club going forwards – they just don’t seem to be on the same page (and we can only judge them from what they say). It WILL be an interesting year ahead for the club.

Buckley explains Treloar's Magpies exit

Indeed we are – 34 years and counting 🙂

Dynasties that didn't deliver

I don’t have a good answer for that question – I think as long as they won 3 flags within a ‘reasonable’ period of time with what is likely to be considered a similar base of players – if you refer to my article on my opinion on greatest vfl-afl dynasties there are a few around the top 10 (eg, 2000’s Cats) that won 3 in 5 years and I’d certainly consider them a dynasty — https://www.theroar.com.au/2020/06/11/the-ten-greatest-vfl-afl-dynasties/

Dynasties that didn't deliver

He read my comment and agrees with you 🙂 — it was at least a few days later, but not sure that gives me a pass though 😉

Dynasties that didn't deliver

maybe the title could’ve read ‘Could’ve been dynasties’?!

I think dynasties really start at 3 flags, although that partly based on my bias of looking at VFL/AFL history and wanting a dynasty to have a chance of being considered in the top 10 teams of all time. I tend to see 2 flags as ‘just’ a very good team (I would be delighted btw if my Pies could produce one of ‘such’…)

Dynasties that didn't deliver

I vividly remember calling one of my close mates who is a life-long Saints supporter after the 2010 replay GF (he was born in 1971 for context given their only flag was 1966) to good-naturedly revel in the Pies’ flag (after all, not many of them in my lifetime yet either!) – he actually sounded a bit traumatised, esp after the 3 years that had just been, so i quickly stopped that topic!

Dynasties that didn't deliver

Nice article Samuel – I think we’ve had some recent debates on either the NBA or tennis forums here and I really like the way you weave together multiple sports to make your point in this article. I especially like the MJ point – I remember watching the NBA finals in the mid to late 90s (when there was barely any TV / internet coverage unlike today!) and MJ just felt ‘inevitable’, even during the Flu game. Whilst an individual’s impact is more limited in a sport like AFL vs b’ball, Dusty feels similar in an AFL context – the way he regularly shrugs off tackles is mind-blowing and seems to be core to his unique success. I’m not sure if I’m mistaken, but I think I heard a commentator say he’s been BoG in 9 / 11 finals, which if that’s right, is unbelievable.

The inevitable truth: No-one had a chance against Dustin Martin

Good article Pete and insightful comment Dexter. From an outside perspective, this doesn’t bode well for what it says about the Pies’ culture. I understand if they need to take drastic steps to try and manage some complex salary cap issues, but they just don’t seem to have thought it through in terms of how to best handle this situation, including whether they are perceived as actually ‘caring’ for their players in practice, especially given Treloar’s well-documented mental health issues. I have no inside insights, but it doesn’t feel like the club has done a great job of managing its salary list for a few years now (eg, grundy’s contract, degoey’s situation) whilst simultaneously not appearing to make sound recruitment decisions (eg, wells, beams)

Collingwood and Treloar - sorry for the three flags you missed Ads but we seem to have overspent

I thought it was a really exciting intense game – 2 or 3 points in it at the last break and dusty ‘going off’ – can’t ask for more if you’re a neutral observer and football fan (but can we avoid all references to 2018…. Not sure I’m over that yet)

It's Tiger time again: Richmond topple Cats in AFL grand final

Well played Tigers – what a game style – holds up so well in big moments – and even as a neutral observer, I got loud when Dusty kicked his goals – what a generational player.

It's Tiger time again: Richmond topple Cats in AFL grand final

I think the tigers by 22 as I think their system will hold up best on GF day in the conditions but if Geelong gets hold of the game like they did against the pies… I just struggle to see it happening for a full game in the GF against the tigers

Today Richmond are the AFL's bad guys - but the bad guys are going to win

Yep, you are BLOODY luck to follow the Hawks – as a Pies supporter, I can only envy your GF record – I think it’s 12 flags out of 18 attempts, which is remarkable. I was a teenager in the 1980s and my best mate was a Hawks supporter, and that wasn’t fun… I can only dream of back-to-back flags, let along a three-peat. Loved the David Robinson – Dunstall comparison – very nice and apt. I agree – Dunstall was a legend and is probably under-rated in some quarters. I’d have to go back and look at their stats, but honestly, I would have a tough time if I had to choose between Lockett and Dunstall (which may be sacrilege I know).

I've lived a lucky life supporting Hawthorn

Lol, that’s probably right — although I think I had a similar debate on the Tennis section re GOAT there too ???? — interesting re steering clear of stats when comparing NBA legends — my perspective is that the NBA is one sport where stats are probably easier to rely on to help distinguish performance b/c of the disproportionate impact of stars in basketball vs say AFL, given the small no of players on the field. Of course, if don’t agree with that, then the whole GOAT argument really does become subjective, as so many nuances creep in. Re finals records – unlikely others, I really don’t ‘hammer’ LeBron too much in that regards – I’m more interested in championships won — I agree that his 2015/18 performances were impressive given lack of support he had. Look forward to our next debate!

The absurdity of NBA GOAT debates Part 2: Comparing apples with oranges

Thanks Kane – interesting analysis. I see these kind of stats as ‘tie-breaker’ stats – ie, all else being equal, then stats like these would possibly swing the argument towards LeBron – however, as of right now, ‘all is not equal’ in the GOAT argument. If, however, I was selecting a team from scratch and I could choose any player who has ever played, I’d actually choose LeBron, not b/c I rate him over MJ, but just that there’s a greater chance that he’ll gell with the other players I’d choose, as he’s the more team-oriented of the two!

What does LeBron's Lakers title mean for the GOAT debate?

Have a look at the stats I quote above – Le Bron definitely impacts as the better all-around basketball player by the ‘eye test’, but when you look at the stats, it’s really not that definitive – his individual stats are better than MJs, but only just – and the advanced stats say it’s basically hard to separate them in that regard. I find it hard to fairly judge the ‘who played with better teammates’ argument and ‘MJ played in the weaker league’. I assume you mean ‘MJ rarely beat some of his greatest opponents’ – again, hard to argue this point, as the counter-argument is that his supporting cast (Pippen, Grant) didn’t really come into their own until the Bulls eventually beat the Pistons and Lakers.

What does LeBron's Lakers title mean for the GOAT debate?

Great reply Steele. I agree that it’s probably hard to argue that LeBron is above MJ right now, although I don’t think it’s impossible (although unlikely) that he reaches MJ depending on his success in latter years of his career. I feel like you’re a bit tough on LeBron though, as his individual stats are just better than MJ’s and the advanced stats are close too. Also, whilst MJ’s 6 / 6 finals is amazing, it’s not the whole story, as he took about 8 years to reach a final series (and got knocked out by the Pistons 3 times in a row if I recall correctly). Interesting comments re Bird’s career – I wasn’t following the NBA then, but I have Magic at 4th all-time and Bird as 8th all time (with Wilt, Russell and Kobe in between them) – it’s possible career stats and individual / team achievements don’t quite do justice to Bird’s brilliance.

What does LeBron's Lakers title mean for the GOAT debate?

Like you, I don’t really buy into the Le Bron doesn’t have a killer instinct view – I can’t recall where I was reading it, but Le Bron’s stats are really good in close-out series games for instance. However, I’m not sure what you mean by MJ having his Wizards’ series removed from his CV — they’re part of his career individual stats and overall career. I probably just cut him a bit of slack not making the All-NBA team at 41, 3 years post retirement! I do think it’s pretty reasonable not to really count the year he returned from baseball in terms of his legacy – he only played 17 / 82 games. I agree though that he should be judged on his overall career – it’s just that those 6 years of championships are incredible.

What does LeBron's Lakers title mean for the GOAT debate?

Good Part 2 – I like the article and agree with the commentary on the differences between eras, but as you know from my GOAT article, I still think it’s a legitimate comparison, if you’re willing to look at multiple stats / awards to reflect ‘achievements’. Btw, I’ve always found the eg ‘MJ would be a 50 point scorer in the current era’ pretty spurious – the argument just goes around in circles doesn’t it.

The absurdity of NBA GOAT debates Part 2: Comparing apples with oranges

Really pleased for Dwight – a nice redemption story.

Dwight Howard is the real Finals MVP

I recall reading that article, although correct me if I’m wrong, I think it also argued for MJ as the GOAT based on playoff context. Whilst there are always differences between eras, which makes across-era GOAT discussions more challenging, in this particular comparison, there’s considerable merit in using objective criteria across the 4 categories I’ve listed to make a GOAT comparison, despite other variables. Also, the eras are not really that far apart, albeit there are some differences in how the game was/is played. However, it sounds like you’re not much of an ‘all-time’ list kind of fan (I have Kareen at 3, Wilt at 5, and none of those others in my top 10 🙂

What does LeBron's Lakers title mean for the GOAT debate?

I don’t recall much about Jetta’s previous performances, but a reported multi-year deal for a 30 year old – I struggle to understand the logic unless it’s a budget-friendly deal?

Breaking down the Magpies in 2020

Hope they keep WHE — he’s not ever going to be a star, but he’s a quality B+ type player who has a bit of an X factor — if we get the rest of the team balance right, I think it makes him even more valuable.

Breaking down the Magpies in 2020