The Roar
The Roar

BrisburghPhil

Roar Guru

Joined August 2014

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Aiming to be the best horse analyst in the country! Keen student of times (Comparative), and any form angle that can produce a profit.

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Yes that was on a wet track with nearly everything in her favour. She also got beaten by Tuscan Sling not so long ago and has to do something no mare has ever done in this race. Second only to Winx… but at level weights she is probably 6L inferior. That puts it more into perspective.
She is a winning chance though no doubt.

Stradbroke Handicap 2016: Preview and tips

Sorry that was the Gold Coast actually. But he had no hope of winning the race trapped 4 wide throughout wherever it was. He didn’t capitulate to be only beaten 3.5L.

Stradbroke Handicap day: Group 1 preview and tips

Oh come on Cam Shamus Award as a Maiden got a run in the Cox Plate, our premier race- That was a disgrace and look what happened. . Maybe if Doomben wasn’t such a biased track this horse might have a Group 3 placing to his name. From what I understand he was the next in line for a start. Not as if the Committee chose it to run.

Stradbroke Handicap day: Group 1 preview and tips

The Virginian- Ouch! I’m going to have to disagree with you there. He probably wouldn’t have got a run had the race not fallen away so much. But he has a lot of potential and for me adds a bit of intrigue. He should have finished a couple of lengths closer to Takedown 3 starts ago so why shouldn’t he be allowed to take his place?

Stradbroke Handicap day: Group 1 preview and tips

Very true Nathan. Even a horse beaten 5-6 lengths on a Heavy track recently can win on similar going next start. Not sure if there are too many falling into that category tomorrow but once again value is key if you can find a few like that. I’ve left a few out that look pretty obvious tbh. Furnaces, Kaepernick, Target In Sight etc.

Eagle Farm Oaks Day 2016: Wet track preview

Yes Don I do think there is a higher likelihood of abandonement because it’s a new track, but weather the authorities will state that I’m not too sure. If I were in charge I’d be very reluctant to go ahead, but then again one or two of these races need to be run.
Getting in early on Fixed Odds? Personally I wouldn’t do that because you will be up for hefty deductions. And I’ve been burnt so many times before ending up getting far inferior odds Fixed, to what I would have got Best Price on the day. Anticipating what horses get through the ground 2-3 days out can find some big overs, but if there are too many scratchings then even that strategy becomes redundant.

Eagle Farm Oaks Day 2016: Wet track preview

Not sure about Sunday Razz. Really have no idea what the plan is if they don’t race tomorrow.QTC Cup is the main worry being a ballot free race for the Stradbroke. Realistically though probably only Kaepernick can win the Stradbroke out of that race and he might not need to start in the race to get a run.
Re Target In Sight- A slight doubt above 1300m on a wet track I reckon, though he is one of the better chances and does actually get through the ground.
I was on A Lotta Love last start @ $26+. Thought she had it at the 200m mark. This is obviously a lot easier.

Eagle Farm Oaks Day 2016: Wet track preview

Technically 2 Group One winners Michael given Azkadellia scored at that level against her own sex last start. I’d dispute that Beaded was better than Fell Swoop. Hard to say he is a year younger. He has a second to Chautauqua at G1 level and beat home a subsequent G1 winner in English that day. Not sure why people are underrating him. He covered 3L more than any other horse last start so should be a Group 1 winner in his own right. He can’t do much more than he has done in his career so far. Super consistent and it doesn’t matter what calibre his opposition are he still rises to the occasion. Dry tracks, Wet tracks. My one concern is the amount of racing he has had, and it might have been a gutbuster last start. If he wins this he is a very good horse and no real reason he can’t if he has maintained his form.

2016 Doomben 10,000 - History and analysis

Yes Cam. The chances of Hooked have improved again I reckon with the scratching of Divine Centuri. Less pace in the race now and probably a tougher ask for the likes of Azkadellia and Delectation.

2016 Doomben 10,000 - History and analysis

Are you guys kidding? Fell Swoop should have won last start and how is Azkadellia too classy for these? That might eventually prove to be the case but what do you base that assumption on?

Doomben 10,000: Preview and predictions

It’s a beauty Razz but I’ll just remind you UTL meets Sheidel 3.5kg better for a narrow margin last start. If only Zebulon hadn’t gone amiss too. He would have added even more interest to it.

The Goodwood 2016: Historically and analytically

Right weight Rob compared to UTL who is 3-0 and should be giving him 2kg not receiving weight. Anything can happen in this race but UTL is far better off at the weights.

Group 1 Goodwood and Doomben Cup: Preview and tips

What about Alpine Eagle first up a mile though? I couldn’t back it with all the injury concerns it has had.

Group 1 Goodwood and Doomben Cup: Preview and tips

Interesting thoughts Razz. Re UTL I think he has been put in the wrong races a lot of the time. He is better served fresh and in 1100-1200m races. I think he is worthy of one more chance and at the weights he should be favourite. He is 3-0 vs FNR and should have at least a kilo more weight than him. He has less.
Re Supido. Just checked his time at M/Valley with 60kg. That would have won the last 2 William Reids, The Australia Stakes this year and the Manikato won by Lankan Rupee. And he drops to 54,5kg. Hard to knock six wins on the trot despite not beating much.
But where does that put Admiral who I have had in the BB since one of his first wins in Tassie? And how do you let Flamberge go around at $17 without you. Intriguing race.

The Goodwood 2016: Historically and analytically

The key with POP Nathan is that he has the Blinkers on still. He wouldn’t have won the Melbourne Cup without them and they went on before the M/Valley Cup. He is a far better horse with them on if you look at his form.

Group 1 Goodwood and Doomben Cup: Preview and tips

I disagree slightly with your assessment of Charlie Boy Cameron. He was only just beaten in last years 10000. I think he is up to winning, just a matter of whether he can be close enough in the run over the 1200m.

I thought Arcadia Dream was a better run than First Impressions last week. The Bar Plates still on her is what worries me. Very surprised they went on her last week. If she has feet issues why is she there?

BTC Cup and SA Derby: Group 1 previews and tips

I did Nathan and really a saver bet at that price just ends up giving you a very decent profit on the race. Also bagged a massive overs double there into Takedown ($160!). The scratching of Sir Moments only really left me with the 2 bets and one of those was Leebaz @ $41 Each Way.
Not sure why Sir Moments was scratched but you’d have to think he would have gone very close to winning the race had he gone around.

AD Hollindale Stakes: Preview and tips

Well actually she doesn’t. Didn’t race against all sexes last start. I think I would have to go with SHEIDEL and hope the inside barrier isn’t a negative for her.

Morphettville: Sangster Stakes and Australasian Oaks Group 1 preview and tips

Hi Cam. I could have done a historical article on the Sangster Stakes too, as I did last year. These are the stats I came up with then;

The most relevant historical statistics are weighted, and collated in the table below;

A) 10/13 drew barrier 9 or wider- 3 points
B) 11/13 were aged either three or four – 3 points
C) 9/13 Placed last start- 3 points
D) 13/13 ran in a Group or Listed race last start- 2 points
7/13 ran in a Group 1 race “ “ – + 1 point
E) 11/13 raced between 1000m and 1200m at their last start- 2 points
F) 10/13 raced against all sexes at previous start- 2 points
G) 12/13 raced on a left handed (anti-clockwise) track last start- 2 points
H) 6/13 either led or were in second place in the early stages of this race- 2 Points
I) 9/13 started $8 or less- 1 point.

I had a brief look earlier and DON”T DOUBT MAMMA fills absolutely all the criteria. Not far off though are Sheidel, Sabatini & Tempt Me Not. They are all younger fillies/mares though.

Morphettville: Sangster Stakes and Australasian Oaks Group 1 preview and tips

Okay Raz thanks for that. I kind of gave up on Puccini some time back but he is another you can’t dismiss (although I didn’t mention him at all). I was interested to find out a bit more about Sakhee’s Soldier and what sort of regard he is held in by the stable. I like their description that he is “high class” and the formline has been well and truly franked from last start ( I tipped the $16 winner of that race).http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/racing/79645514/baker-and-forsman-have-sakhees-soldier-at-best-for-hollindale

AD Hollindale Stakes: Preview and tips

Thanks Scuba, you could well be right re VSB. I think it’s a horribly difficult race but trying to find an angle I think it’s wise to go with the fitness one. Maybe a few of these preparing for the Doomben Cup and not quite at their top, or so I’m hoping.

AD Hollindale Stakes: Preview and tips

Undoubtedly the greatest sporting achievement of all time.

Leicester City win EPL title in one of the greatest underdog stories in sport history

Pretty good effort that Andrew. I make it 28 returns for 14 invested taking 3 of your selections Each Way. That is too good to have hidden away where not too many people can see it. I don’t always check out your results or selections but when I do you always seem to come up with a couple of winners and they are generally decent prices.

Chairmans Sprint Prize: Buffering and Chautauqua take on the best in Hong Kong

Don’t be afraid to get it wrong. Ir happens to me quite often. Same with this race. Speed a lot quicker than I anticipated.
People can see you put the time and thought into it and will appreciate it.

Chairmans Sprint Prize: Buffering and Chautauqua take on the best in Hong Kong

Andrew,

Why don’t you do this write up for the Roar each week instead of in comments? They are always looking for contributors as far as I know, especially in the horse racing section.

Chairmans Sprint Prize: Buffering and Chautauqua take on the best in Hong Kong

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