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This is the final article in a five-part series that looks at graphical representation and assessment of AFL club list age profiles and features…
The first three articles in this five-part series have focused on the age distribution of senior AFL players – those who participated in 75…
This is Part 3 in a five-part series that looks at graphical representation and assessment of AFL club list age profiles and features a…
This is Part 2 in a five-part series that looks at graphical representation and assessment of AFL club list age profiles and features a…
In the AFL more so than ever performance is judged in the context of a club’s age profile. Old teams are judged harshly and…
When the frenzied media speculation on the future of free agent Stephan Coniglio ended abruptly with his re-signing at GWS, Hawthorn largely receded from…
The entry of premiership cycles and stage-appropriate list management into the mainstream consciousness of AFL fans has roots in the Alastair Clarkson-led revival of…
The addendum to any discussion of Hawthorn’s 2019 list is the injury to Brownlow medalist Tom Mitchell. Hawthorn struggled in his absence early, with…
I disagree with your opinion on COLA, but I don’t like any ‘equalisation’ measures in the AFL (aside from ladder position/draft pick) no matter the rationale. I’m a Hawks supporter and I don’t like that they were given priority picks in 2004-5.
AFL list age profiles: Statistical representation of premiership lists (Part 3)
That’s Part 3
AFL list age profiles: The teams setting themselves for future success (Part 2)
Effectively yes. I was just trying not to use too much maths terminology. In retrospect ‘histogram with a colour superposition’ is probably more confusing.
AFL list age profiles: A statistical representation of 2020 sides (Part 1)
yeah exactly, the AGP score values each player by their 2019 season. I started with this way of valuing players simply because the data is easily accessible. It means injuries have a strong influence so you’re not necessarily looking at a list at its very best. However, it is impartial, i.e. you’re not speculating on whether players will or won’t recover from injury. Tom Mitchell, Jon Patton, Joe Daniher etc are all valued at 0 in this system. In part 5 I look at other variables, and come up with a way of visualising teams at their best.
AFL list age profiles: A statistical representation of 2020 sides (Part 1)
Thanks Paul, this is why I included every team- so readers could have a crack at what each Earlgram says about each club’s future. I give my own interpretations in Part 2. Re. Lance Franklin, he played 10 games in 2019, so 10/22*100=45%
AFL list age profiles: A statistical representation of 2020 sides (Part 1)
Thanks Rissole, re. Melbourne’s low number of 76-100% players- this aspect of Earlgrams is discussed in part 4.
AFL list age profiles: A statistical representation of 2020 sides (Part 1)
Part 3 shows Premiership team Earlgrams, and looks at how current Richmond looks compared to recent Hawthorn and Geelong dynastic teams.
AFL list age profiles: A statistical representation of 2020 sides (Part 1)
It’s clearly not so simple to assess if well-funded, professional organisations have evaluted the injury risk of Scully and Patton differently. If teams are to retire any ‘injury-prone’ player as you suggest, they’d need to consider what exactly that means in terms of games missed, impact on performance when the player does play, versatility of the player to see if they cannot add value in a less taxing role, with all this indexed to the type and severity of injury that was sustained which might not have a huge amount of data to support an informed decision. The talent pool available to the AFL is very small relative to list spots available, removing a proven performer from the list is a big decision.
A clear view of the Hawks in 2020
There is the counterargument that Birchall’s time out from the game will prolong his career, though I have no idea if this has any statistical or medical basis. I just don’t see how you definitely rule it out.
A clear view of the Hawks in 2020
I don’t know much about injury susceptibility nor have I ever tried to compile any statistics. I would have thought its a very difficult thing to make definitive statements about given it is a science that is constantly progressing.
A clear view of the Hawks in 2020
Not necessarily the most crucial need in terms of best 22 performance but there is (or at least was) next to no ready coverage for Frawley and no valid succession plan for his retirement which is not too far off. Yes Hawthorn played ok in Frawley’s occasional absence, but if forced to play without a KPD for an extended period there is a high chance this is eventually exploited by opposition – which we saw plenty of in Clarkson’s early years. Luckily this never happened. There were other weak components to last year’s list, but nothing so vulnerable as this. Certainly, Hawks fans would be disappointed to see Schoenmakers in the best 22 again, but injury-free he could still have been use-able insurance in the VFL- but ultimately there are now enough better options in this space that he was released.
A clear view of the Hawks in 2020
Definitely they’re a team that needs to be settled to perform, and clearly losing Mitchell took a while to get over. Frost, Patton and Hartley might not be high-profile players but they are structurally significant and their recruitment might signal further tweaking of game style. There may well be delay again this season until we see the Hawks at their best.
A clear view of the Hawks in 2020
Thanks Presti, the article is intended to discuss changes to the roster specifically rather than potential improvements from within the 2019 group moving into 2020- be that the return of Mitchell or improvement from younger players. That could be an article unto itself.
Sure, Clarkson has a systems-based approach but he does need talent to do this. What talent actually means in this context is where Hawthorn departs from many other clubs, I feel that moreso than other clubs Clarkson judges players on their baseline efforts rather than what their best might be, we see this in the way he translates Box Hill form to senior selection/debuts; he never rewards single big games at VFL level with senior selection. Players that consistently don’t do the wrong thing are rewarded more so than those that do exceptional things. Clarkson’s ‘long apprenticeships’ are a bit of a myth given that certain draftees do play seniors very early, his aversion to playing draftees early comes from their typical inconsistency/low dependability which makes coaching to a system more difficult.
A clear view of the Hawks in 2020
haha, nice nitpick. My overall point was that he wasn’t a part of the sustained success, though your point is valid.
Think Clarko's a draft genius? Think again
Thanks Dave. I’m not sure what the McEvoy move means for Hawthorn in future and whether it can work long-term, it certainly caught out WC on the night. I felt it may have been more a statement about Ceglar than it was about at McEvoy. Brian Lake was an amazing player, a lot of current-day marking defenders get called-out for playing the easier third man up role, but you can’t say that about Lake. His ability to out-mark key forwards in 50-50 contests was demoralising for the opposition. Your favourable view of Robert Campbell’s stint in defence is probably clouded by just how weak Hawthorn’s key position defenders were at the time – think Dawson vs Rocca. Campbell was still easily beaten but at least his strength meant fans didn’t have to deal with the poor aesthetic of their defenders getting rag-dolled. I like what I’ve seen from Kosi. If it makes any sense, I like the way he gets beaten- there’s no panic and no rag-dolling and he doesn’t seem to be phased by losing out sometimes like some defenders do. He seems very self-assured and that’s what the best fullbacks have in common.
Why Hawthorn need to axe more of their ageing stars
I’d estimate there were 30-40 in the 2019 season? The point is, can this be improved and in a league where elite talent is now spread very thin, getting an extra few years out of your A-graders could make a significant difference. Maybe you’re right and 32 is a general physiological limit that will shift only minimally even as player management improves, but I’d hope teams are investing in research in this area.
Think Clarko's a draft genius? Think again
Agreed, more sophisticated ways of determining when a player is in decline (as opposed to just referencing the player being ‘over thirty’) are surely a priority for AFL-focussed sports scientists. It has the potential to be the next big list management advantage to whichever club works it out, similar to the way Hawthorn profited from undervaluation of high draft picks in the early 2000s.
Think Clarko's a draft genius? Think again
Yeah definitely interesting to see what they do in terms of tall forwards. Ceglar and McEvoy are only effective in very small spurts. When they spend too long forward they’re easily coached out of the game. Lewis, Nash and O’Brien together was most effective in 2019, and I suspect the Patton talks started before these three started to click. The potential up-side of Patton makes the risk still worthwhile, even if he’s structurally less significant now. If all four players hit their straps at once its an issue, but this rarely happens.
Why Hawthorn need to axe more of their ageing stars
Good points, but Jed Anderson and Ryan Burton probably only saw Hawthorn break even in re-sale value. They are interesting cases because they both looked very promising early. I suspect there are subtle issues in their games that Hawthorn felt would be difficult to change, so they cashed out early. One thing I don’t like about Burton is his slow, winding kicking style that comes unstuck when under pressure. When given space, his kicking is elite though.
Think Clarko's a draft genius? Think again
I feel that Hodge and Mitchell were moved on largely because they were too big characters at Hawthorn to play supportive roles, making it hard for the next generation to become on-field leaders. They obviously did it elsewhere, but the context is different coming into a new club where you haven’t once been the big dog and you’re there simply to be a mentor. In the least critical sense of the word, ego is a factor. Burgoyne strikes me as that perfect blend of being able to be a quiet role player and listen to the official leaders, but has the presence to be able to take over when things aren’t going well. This is exactly what you want from veteran players. Roughed, I can’t agree on. His time was up, but the boldness of Hawthorn to move on it early was commendable.
Think Clarko's a draft genius? Think again
Just to clarify, there’s a bit about 87 players being selected and only Suckling being a success. An edit there didn’t work. What I said was he is the only player that wasn’t at least top performing in the VFL by his second season yet still went on to have a reasonable career. The point being, that is a reasonable cut-off point for delisting. Hawthorn held on too many players much longer than this that never made it.
Think Clarko's a draft genius? Think again
Sorry, I’ve edited my previous comment because I realised you’re talking about 2016. The final part of my article is about good late pick-ups during and after the threepeat being cause for optimism. You’re being thrown by the title that this website put to my article, the content is only mildly critical and fairly optimistic.
Think Clarko's a draft genius? Think again
Hawks are old, no doubt, but again there’s more to the story. I think Hawks fans are a little tired of analysis that just reels-off ages. I also don’t think people acknowledge that Clarkson phases players out of team responsibility, well before they are phased out of the starting 22. Its no coincidence that the Hawks seem to cope well with veteran players coming out of the side on gameday.
Think Clarko's a draft genius? Think again
You may well be proven correct, but there’s a more interesting and textured story in Hawthorn’s current state and that’s what I’d like to discuss with other fans.
Think Clarko's a draft genius? Think again
The Freo Earlgram is included at the bottom of part 1. They have a spread of senior players and not a well-defined core group of players. In my model this is not what you want, but that is just my model.
AFL list age profiles: The teams setting themselves for future success (Part 2)