Wallabies v Springboks: preview and analysis
The Wallabies and Springboks meet at Suncorp this Saturday night and I am really struggling to pick a winner. The Boks have form on…
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100% we should have more of our better players off shore, earning what they are worth without bankrupting ourselves.
We just disagree there aren’t any already o/s demanding selection.
Take Quade Cooper vs Ben Donaldson last year.
Whether it’s financial metrics of cost – RA spent more on Donaldson last year than QC
Revenue – more people will turn in to watch QC than Donaldson
Or rugby – last year, QC was more ready to play a leading role in tests (pop quiz , who was the 10 in the only game the Wallabies backs scored 4 tries against top 10 opposition?)
Would I pick QC this year? No. But last year, for the World Cup, absolutely. Him basically being dropped after the Argentina game was ridiculous, he didn’t lose us that match.
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
Yeah, I’m not buying that os players are the cause of last year’s woes.
Leave the team in Rennie’s hands and give him the same open selection (which he asked for) and I bet we would have gotten better results
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
Gee letting him go was a good decision.
Bealham story is the one that is most similar, although for me even worse.
Oz schools and a Canberra born and bred player. Didn’t get a look in at the Brumbies while they signed Sio, Alaalatoa and the Smith brothers.
40 tests for Ireland and hasn’t looked back.
Aussie-born England capped rake Nic Dolly signs with Force ... and he'll soon be eligible for the Wallabies
How is allowing between 2-5 players from offshore – picking the best wherever they are? The only coach that has had carte blanche is EJ.
“oh we aren’t good picking domestic so let’s pick overseas and that will solve everything”. That’s a lovely strawman.
OS players have seldom performed as they are built up to. A huge factor is time with the team which cannot be overcome. making absolute statements doesn’t make them true.
Weird how the Boks keep winning world cups, apparently it can’t be done with the squads they are picking.
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
Weird comment Jed.
Slipper was injured at the WC, I think a fit Sio might have given us better value. He played good rugby in his last season in Wallaby colours and since.
You comment on a number of guys that are offshore, or have been offshore and say they were good – yeah, that’s basically my point.
I agree Nela can and should still be picked – that’s not what the domestic only crew want though.
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
Looking at guys like Finlay Bealham and Mack Hansen, pretty telling for the Brumbies too.
Sione Tuipulotu/ Rebels and the likes of Jack Cornelsen/Reds.
Maybe it’s a message for all Australian rugby.
Aussie-born England capped rake Nic Dolly signs with Force ... and he'll soon be eligible for the Wallabies
Hours, with a single glass? C’mon Mo! You can do better than that.
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Lordy leaves a legacy that modern journalists will find nigh impossible to match.
Always enjoyed sparring with him on these pages. Very much appreciated his contributions even if we seldom agreed.
Condolences to his family and friends. Vale David.
RIP, David Lord: Australian sports journalism icon was 'always thoughtful and thought-provoking'
My position is pick our best wherever they are.
If we need to get better at integrating overseas players to get the best out of our best, let’s do that.
For me it’s very wrong to say, we’ve not done well dipping our toe so let’s stop there. It’s a false argument.
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
Nice. Some good depth growing at the Force.
Have they finally been allowed to spend a bit of money? Fantastic if they have.
Aussie-born England capped rake Nic Dolly signs with Force ... and he'll soon be eligible for the Wallabies
RA are going broke trying to keep players good enough to win onshore.
Going broke and failing to win.
Despite selecting the majority of the team from the domestic pool you want them to focus on.
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
Yes. Agree the stats of counting win/losses where os played or didn’t is pointless without context.
Don’t think you captured both sides of the argument.
One side of the argument says pick our best players, wherever they may play.
The other says, no, pick domestic only.
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
But still relatively small numbers. I’m guessing the average is two per twenty three.
Maybe we need to try a larger number of offshore players.
We’ve seen what 100% domestic and 90%+ looks like.
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
Farthing your statistical analysis is not worthy of the name.
You count a match against the world number one, at their home, that we lost by 3 points as statistically relevant to your argument when overseas players played 3.17% of all minutes by Australians in the match.
Then you cite a match with purely domestic players as equally relevant the other way. A match we were losing against a side that had just lost to Georgia, that were beating us convincingly until they lost their 10 and we came back.
There is no analysis, no examination of the actual key influences on the results.
If the team that lost to Ireland in 2022 was able to play the team that beat Wales on that tour – I know who I would back to win. Hint, it’s not the purely domestic side that was missing a heap of players to injuries.
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
I mean obviously guys like Scott Sio, Brandon Paenga-Amosa (until he get’s back), Matt Philip, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto (before he got back), Pete Samu are all terrible (at least for the time they are offshore).
Won’t mention Skelton or the Arnolds as I know they are triggering for some.
If Nela does go to Leinster or to France, obviously Nonggorr will immediately become a better pick.
If any single one of these guys is even on the bench and the Wallabies lose, it will be proof that we shouldn’t be picking overseas players (at least that’s the level of argument that’s been presented)
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
Pretty simple – Australia’s best performance of recent years was the 2021 winning of the Mandela Challenge Plate.
A performance spearheaded by overseas players in Cooper, Kerevi and Koroibete.
I’ll give you another, recent John Eales medal winners have been dominated by overseas players Koroibete’s 2022 win and Michael Hooper’s 2021, that is two of the last three.
Wallabies players obviously see that overseas players are adding to the team and outperforming domestic selections.
I’m guessing overseas selections have been less than 9% across that three year period (on average 2 of the 23). Yet two thirds of the players players awards have gone to them.
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
Is correlation causation?
We argue from the same data set that continuing to select so many domestic players has led to the decline.
It would be just as flawed an argument but can easily be made.
As we can see the Bokke have had increased success with more overseas picks.
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
Sure but among lies, damned lies and statistics – your stats are not even a bikini
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
Still TWAS, as much as I rate Dan Palmer as a scrum coach, at least Parling was a jumper/caller. Has to help
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Sure but is it a reasonable inference, that having a single os player come off the bench only for us to lose by three points to the world number 1 ranked team, that if only we’d had a domestic player come off the bench we’d have done better?
You count a game with a single os player off the bench as supporting your argument.
Maybe we need to see a squad of 40 with majority overseas players and then judge?
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
Your position remains completely unproven though.
You’d need to rank quality of opposition, show number of os players, reference the quality of players we had in a particular match given some missing. Show some actual detail and a bit of nuance before you can extrapolate.
At the moment, Oz losing to Ireland 13-10 in Dublin is a a game we only lost because Will Skelton played 38 minutes? It’s possible we only got that close because of him.
His presence in the side and the result actually tells us nothing.
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
So the 100% win rate with domestic only (being the 2022 Wales game) suggests that overseas players are why we are losing other matches?
Is that really what you are trying to argue?
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
Hope the comeback goes well. Can be an important player for the Force and Australia if he can stay on the pitch.
Wallabies star set to make timely return against Crusaders in must-win clash for Force
I get what you are trying to show but don’t think you are successfully doing so.
Can you show increased performance when there have been less overseas players in the team across the same period? (While playing similarly ranked sides?)
If you could show that you might have something, right now I don’t think you are showing anything.
Scrap the Giteau Law: Rugby Australia should look to Rassie's 'Boks RWC recipe if it wants to re-join the big boys' table
C’mon Fezza. It’s a new era! Tahs are a struggling side trying to find their way.
Let’s save that attitude for the Brumbies!
Nice win for your lads.
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