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Josh Elliott

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Joined February 2014

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Josh Elliott is a rusted-on North Melbourne tragic with a penchant for pun headlines - and also abnormal alliteration, assuredly; assuming achievability. He once finished third in a hot chilli pie eating contest. You can follow him on Twitter @JoshElliott_29.

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(Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Bulldogs don’t appear due to not losing anyone who played at least 11 games for them last year).

How AFL lists have changed ahead of season 2020

On those raw numbers it definitely looks like a nice enough position. The issue is that some of the reason for good experience numbers is guys like Rockliff and Motlop who they brought in but don’t really fit that well into the team.

How AFL lists have changed ahead of season 2020

I’ve looked into this a little, but not a lot – it might be more interesting as a measure of depth, but the fact that a lot of clubs have different numbers of players on their lists makes it difficult.

How AFL lists have changed ahead of season 2020

For an example of how that might look, here’s the total career experience lost by each club counting ONLY players who played at least 11 games (half a season) last year:
AD 544
BR 431
GW 415
ME 410
PA 384
ST 343
CA 259
NM 241
FR 217
WC 215
RI 176
SY 90
CO 82
ES 70
GE 48
I can change that to whatever game requirement anyone suggests if they’re curious about the numbers.
Makes a huge difference for Sydney – suggests that despite a massive number of games of experience coming off the list, they’re not necessarilly losing a lot out of 2019’s best side. Adelaide not losing as much as the whole figure would make you think, either.

How AFL lists have changed ahead of season 2020

The difficult question there is how you rank a team’s best 30 players. There are a few different ways one could explore that but I figured going broad picture was, for now, the best way to remain unbiased.

How AFL lists have changed ahead of season 2020

Jasper Pittard > Jake Lloyd

What the one-off AFL State of Origin teams could look like

Geez, I let you guys run things on your own for a few weeks and all of a sudden there’s no North players in the Origin teams… for shame 😡 😛

What the one-off AFL State of Origin teams could look like

It’s a reasonable concern – I’m bullish that he’s going to find that fitness and make a solid contribution, but that’s only my own gut feel/optimism!

A new season offers second chances for 2019's recruiting flops

Before last year he had two All-Australian guernsey and they had just the one between them. If only assessing raw talent I’d pick him out of those three (though only just barely over Lynch).

A new season offers second chances for 2019's recruiting flops

Didn’t wind up mentioning Scully in the end but he could be in the conversation of this article too, though the Hawks didn’t pay any kind of high price for him. Got on the park last year but didn’t have nearly the same impact, curious to see whether he can get back there or if his injury will limit his running power.

A new season offers second chances for 2019's recruiting flops

I think Jaeger’s knee issues have probably robbed him of the pace he needs to be a genuine inside-outside mid, and he’ll probably be mostly an inside mid going forward, a bit like Chris Judd in the latter part of his career. A very good player but I can’t see him reaching the heights we once thought he would, though it would be nice to be proven wrong since I’ve been holding him in fantasy team for many years.

A new season offers second chances for 2019's recruiting flops

He’s played 20+ games three times, I know it’s not techincally 100% but I would probably consider that a full season (except probably 2018 where it was out of a potential 25).

A new season offers second chances for 2019's recruiting flops

One stat that didn’t ultimately get into the article was that Shiel had a career-low disposal efficiency in 2019, and by no small margin. Seems like GWS were able to hide that a bit better than Essendon have been so far.

A new season offers second chances for 2019's recruiting flops

I did consider putting McGovern in the conversation as well, agree he’s got good room for improvement this year and in the future.

A new season offers second chances for 2019's recruiting flops

I don’t think Hannebery’s contract will be too much of an issue, there’s only three years of it left (and a trigger for a fourth) and I reckon a lot of it would’ve been front-ended into last year too when they had plenty of salary cap space clear.

I like May but not sure he can make the impact people seem to feel he will. Only ever been an above-average player and has never managed 20 games in a season.

A new season offers second chances for 2019's recruiting flops

It does feel 50/50 whether he plays a game again.

A new season offers second chances for 2019's recruiting flops

The backs are a strength definitely. Mids not so much, a lot of the inside types are one-dimensional and though they’ve got some good developing dynamic players in there, it’s probably too early to rely on them a lot. Forward line I would call one of the worst in the league – Dixon has always struggled to get on the park and is 29, Gray will be 32 at Round 1. They addressed this during the draft but it will take a few years before that comes through. I think if they’d had a consistent list strategy over the last seven years or so – rather than flipping back and forth between hitting the draft and targetting mature recruits – they’d be in a much better position than they are now.

Seven big questions for the AFL in 2020

True, they might have to lose a ‘best 22’ player though, and given his injury history you’d have to consider it.

Seven big questions for the AFL in 2020

Yeah I’d agree with that, I think guys like Varcoe, Scharenberg, Cox, Greenwood, Mayne, Reid could all either finish up or take big paycuts at the end of this year which will create at least a little room. They might have to lose someone like a Tom Phillips as well to make the numbers add up, or maybe not. I was a little surprised they didn’t just allow Jamie Elliott to walk last year as he seemed like a good opportunity to free up some space.

Seven big questions for the AFL in 2020

Both interesting topics definitely.

I think for both clubs it will be a step backwards before going forward again in 2021 this year, but you can never be quite sure. Lions will have a much tougher fixture and unlikely to have as good an injury run this year, I see them finishing 5-8 and winning an elimination final, which would be progress of a sort given they didn’t win one in 2019. Giants are just waiting for a clean injury run one year to dominate the comp, and you never know when that could come up for them. I would probably tip them for top four and a prelim this year but be a little surprised to see them back in the GF.

Tassie team will definitely be one to follow, there’s a bit of talk going around about North playing 10 home games in Tas and then having 11 matches in Vic (one home, ten away), with only two trips outside those two states. Not a fan of the idea personally, so will be interesting to see if it grows legs.

Seven big questions for the AFL in 2020

The list is definitely a problem IMO. They’ve changed direction about four or five times under Hinkley’s tenure and for mine that’s a big part of why the side has frustrated fans over this period of time. They’ve got a lot of good kids in over the last two years, but that’s not a reason to believe they’ll be good now.

Seven big questions for the AFL in 2020

Not anyone can be 200cm tall, though.

Seven big questions for the AFL in 2020

Pendles is actually OOC too this year, no risk of not being there in 2021 though and you’d assume probably at the stage where he would be OK with taking a paycut. They can back-end those contracts definitely especially if they’re long ones, and that’s what I think will happen, but that postpones headaches rather than solving them.

Seven big questions for the AFL in 2020

One has an All Australian guernsey (and a great stache), one doesn’t. Though playing for a big Vic club doesn’t hurt either.

Seven big questions for the AFL in 2020

He does have a good face though.

Seven big questions for the AFL in 2020