The Roar
The Roar

Kandeepan Arul

Roar Rookie

Joined August 2018

3.2k

Views

4

Published

64

Comments

Published

Comments

Hi Gurlivleen
Any chance I can get your email address. I am curious to learn how to beat the bookies. Given your experience I thought I might be able to run a few questions past you.

cheers
Kandee

Don't despair cricket fans, time is a flat circle

Thanks James. I was just using statsguru.

Maxwell's bowling can shape Australia's World Cup campaign

Ronan which database do you use to extract economy rates. I can’t find anything on cricinfo that gives me economy rates.

Maxwell's bowling can shape Australia's World Cup campaign

Teams are getting better at reading Mujeeb and Rashid Khan’s variations. Ireland recently beat them. Mystery spinners only stay mysterious for so long. They’ll probably win a couple of games. By expectations I meant that of a neutral cricket fan like myself.

India, not England, should be World Cup favourites

It does give a benchmark of expectation to compare actual performance against. For India anything less than a world cup victory would be seen as a fail. For Australia anything less than semi-finals would be a failure. For Afghanistan winning a game would make the tournament a success.

India, not England, should be World Cup favourites

Hey Gurliveen
Not disputing the soundness or accuracy of your calculation but your assumptions appear to be too heavily weighted in favour of the top 6 sides. Currently sportsbet have Windies at 15-1 to win the world cup, implied proabability of 6.7%. Hence not far fetched to say they have at least 10% of making the semis.

The Cricket World Cup favourites are shaping up, but does it actually mean anything?

To confirm your point 3 out of the 11 cricket world cups have been won by teams that would have been ranked in the bottom half going into the tournament. India(’83), Australia (’87) and Sri Lanka (’96).

The Cricket World Cup favourites are shaping up, but does it actually mean anything?

I tend to disagree with your comment on the Windies. They used to be a team of individuals playing million dollar shots but Jason Holder has finally go this team gelling together quite nicely. Their bowling is their weakness and it will eventually hurt them. The probability of them making the semis would have to be at least 10%.

The Cricket World Cup favourites are shaping up, but does it actually mean anything?

Ryan I tend to agree with you that Adelaide will be a force this year. I can’t help but feel that the so called “camp” was the cause of their downfall last season. I wish someone would write a book or make a documentary on exactly what went on in this camp and the aftermath.

Are the Adelaide Crows winning the Patrick Dangerfield trade?

If the curators prepare roads then West Indies could be the dark horse. They tied the series against England without Evin Lewis and Andre Russell. Don’t think they have the discipline to go all the way but certainly will be entertaining to watch.

India, not England, should be World Cup favourites

I will sit on the fence when it comes to Handscomb. Hard to make any sense of his form. Looked good in the one-dayers against India but his shot-making in the BBL semi final and final was………well let’s just say he either temporarily lost his brain or he doesn’t give a hoots about the melbourne stars or the BBL. For Australia’s sake I hope it is the latter.

Peter Handscomb can play a key role in T20s against India

Tend to agree with you that there is a flaw here. During the last 2 years Jadeja has played in just 15 out of the 25 tests that India played and averaged 23. Lyon played in all 23 of the test matches that Australia played and averaged 28. India tend to use Jadeja selectively on pitches that will suit him whereas Lyon is expected to toil away on all pitches. Bit like comparing a fast bowler who only plays on green pitches vs one that plays on all wickets.

Cummins first Aussie ICC top Test bowler since McGrath

oops.. sorry I only realised he’s been playing for 12 months after I typed my comment

Cummins first Aussie ICC top Test bowler since McGrath

Surprised Bumrah is not in the top 5 considering what he did in Australia.

Cummins first Aussie ICC top Test bowler since McGrath

The way he walks around holding his bat reminds me of Chris Hemsworth holding his hammer in Thor.

Australia need a bowling all-rounder in ODIs

I agree with your thinking but might be reluctant to play two spinners against the sub-continental sides. Definitely worth looking at against the Poms and the south africans.

Australia need a bowling all-rounder in ODIs

If Handscomb doesn’t want to keep what about Josh Phillipe. He looked good even before the start of this year’s BBL.

Australia need a bowling all-rounder in ODIs

I agree with you that we could do with a bowling all rounder. Not sure who is the answer. Agar/Marsh/Faulkner have all gone backwards in recent years. I know BBL is totally different to ODI cricket but the only player with any X-factor worth punting on is Dan Christian. He would be a huge gamble give he is a pure t-20 specialist.

Australia need a bowling all-rounder in ODIs

Good read Ryan. Just one observation about the hot and cold streaks in close wins. For the long run regression rule to apply we need to assume all things are equal. If teams like Geelong and Hawthorn stay a final-8 side they will continue to win a disproportionate number of close games. Self belief is a big factor in these close games. Something that we can’t quantify.

Numbers Game: Which teams will rise and fall in the AFL in 2019?

The selectors also need to look at the opposition they are playing against. The final test match of the summer is against Sri Lanka, a team that is loaded with off spinners. I’d be curious to know who has the best stats against spinners in the current domestic summer.

Who’s most likely to get the Shaun Marsh Test call-up from the BBL?

Agreed. Taking Smith and Warner out is like taking Kohli and Pujara out of the Indian team

The Australian cricket selectors caught between a rock and a hard place

A suggestion from left field. Given that Head was clearly Australia’s best batsman yesterday it can’t be a coincidence that he was the only local guy (south australian) in the side. Going forward have a core group of batsmen and then fill the remaining 2 spots with batsmen who have the most familiarity/success with the ground/pitch.

The Australian cricket selectors caught between a rock and a hard place

Also I tend to think that Indians’ biggest weakness will be their inability to adjust to the extra bounce on Australian wickets. Siddle doesn’t have the height to trouble the Indians with bounce. If Cummins is underdone Tremain with his extra height would be a better choice to replace him.

Langer confirms Test debut for Marcus Harris; doesn't guarantee a spot for Marsh

Pretty good second XI. Maybe Ferguson and Kurtis Patterson unlucky to miss out.

Langer confirms Test debut for Marcus Harris; doesn't guarantee a spot for Marsh

My guess for the continued selection of Mitch Marsh would be due to the insistence of the coach, captain, and so-called sports scientists who are responsible for managing the bowlers’ workload to minimise risk of injury. Finding a no.6 who can also share the bowling work load isn’t easy. I actually thought labuschagne’s leggies in the UAE weren’t shabby. Had a good wrong’un to go with his leggie.

Why Australia needs some new selectors