Bledisloe Groundhog Day: Is it time for changes?
The best-of-three Bledisloe Cup format has never produced a grand finale blockbuster. Not once. Here’s the full list of years the format has failed…
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AndyS,
We look at individual games because rugby, and live broadcast media, are both events businesses.
Look at something like State of Origin, or AFL Grand Final, these are big events. The big events are what bring massive Australian audiences and spike revenue for commercial partners beyond the predictable round robin.
Rugby used to posit test matches, and then the Bledisloe Cup, as equivalent events. And that’s where most of the broadcast value was for News Corp. SR was more of a way to spend the money!
Anyway, achieving 400,000 Australian viewers for the SR AU final shows, something of significant broadcast value is brewing for RA and Nine. Comparing the finals figures illustrates that.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
It is a valid comparison because both tournaments proposed their finals would be appealing Australian TV audiences and great business for Nine.
Let’s remove our bias – things what we want to see – and look at the cold hard numbers. What do they tell us?
This is urgent information because RA had stated a 2022 plan to increase commitment to TT, and potentially do away with AU completely. Although, I must acknowledge, the messaging has improved in recent weeks as the dismal failure of 2021 TT with Australian audiences would have become apparent to everybody, including the broadcaster.
There should be no hiding from the facts.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
I’m working with all information I have. I do not have a breakdown of Australian viewer numbers game by game, and I hope they are made public for our consideration. If anyone can share a link to the data I would love to look at it.
The other piece of information I do have is this –
“The 2021 Harvey Norman Super Rugby AU season has recorded average domestic television ratings up an average of 144% across the regular season year-on-year.
The ratings do not include the numbers for the Stan Sport platform, and come ahead of the Finals series, culminating in the Final on Saturday 8 May at Suncorp Stadium.”
https://ministryofsport.com.au/2021-super-rugby-au-season-records-144-broadcast-ratings-increase/
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
“For those who want to shotgun my argument to catastrophe like not playing New Zealand at all, that’s not what I’m saying.”
Yet, John Brown says, if Australia commits to a national rugby championship it will be a catastrophe!
Yeah, nah. It will not. It’ll be great.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
Thanks mate.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
Great points Peter.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
I think you’re right JamesD the expat kiwis boost the numbers for those games.
So what do we need to do to get more Australians turning up?
I know! Keep developing national tournaments like AU and/or NRC.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
I agree with every point you make Puff, except for the conclusion. NZ doesn’t have to be a “big part” of the solution. They’ll be in the mix, sure, but we’ve leaned on the kiwis too much already.
We must grow our sport in Australia: and one way to do that is with an inspiring national competition like Super Rugby AU.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
Yep. I think it’s only expat kiwis who object to us taking control of our own rugby destiny.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
The sixth team should be either
a) Fijian Drua
or
b) Presidents XV based in Western Sydney and/or NSW Country.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
Yep. We’ve been playing NZ in Super Rugby for 25 years and slowly getting worse results.
What do they call it when you do the same thing over and over and expect a different result?
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
Brett, when you cherry pick numbers to support your own argument you are being non-scientific.
Bad!
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
Irrelevant.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
You should not remove the outlier event Brett else you invalidate your findings.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
Hi Brett, we don’t have the full numbers for every game yet. I hope they are publicly released.
Knowing a bit about statistics, yes the AU final was an outlier, but that’s what we statisticians are looking for. The upside outliers are stuffed with money.
AU can guarantee games with massive audiences. That’s proven now.
TT probably also can, if an AU teams makes the finals, but it can not do that as regularly as AU.
Thus, we move from statistics to probability.
Q: Which tournament offers the most potential for consistent super linear outlier events?
A: AU
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
What utter nonsense JD.
NZ’s population is smaller than Melbourne and your economy is smaller than NSW.
There is a 25 million person potential TV audience in Australia which RA can grow into be delivering what Australians want to watch – a national rugby competition.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
Hello Bluesfan, let me just copy and paste a line from my article, because clearly you either haven’t read it, or didn’t understand it.
“For those who want to shotgun my argument to catastrophes like not playing New Zealand at all, that’s not what I’m saying.”
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
That’s very well though through Ken’s other leg. A lot of details there. Good ideas. This is a profound observation –
“we may need to confine our planning projections to 12 month periods.”
Exactly! RA shouldn’t make decisions that bind us to any scenario for a decade. RA should be more agile and iterative. Based on what happened this year, what nudges would improve things?
1) Introduce an NRC
2) Include a 6th team in AU (Drua, Presidents XV or whomever)
3) Add two semi-finals to AU
4) Completely revisit TT: invite Japan and make it a 16 team knock out tournament hosted in 1 country.
Etc.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
Yes. I agree. RA should do all that via AU or NRC competitions, or both.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
I’m a data driven amateur analyst. I’m hopeful that Nine / Stan will release the full Australian audience numbers for every game of AU and TT publicly so we can know for sure.
My instinct though, is if you drew a line chart for each tournament’s audience figures for comparison…
AU would start low and slowly build up each week before spiking in the final.
TT would start high in round 1, still be relatively high in round 2, and then drop away the longer the tournament went on.
I also predict, if you play more of each, the trend lines will continue in the same directions.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
Melbourne has 5 million population. That’s more than all of NZ, let alone one of their franchises.
I would like to see how many TV viewers Nine would get if the Melbourne Rebels made the finals against any of their traditional AFL rivals eg WA Force.
That’s exactly the sort of question RA and Nine should be asking.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
I appreciate the effort and consideration you have given this, but I think that’s way too complex for the casual sports fan.
Rugby union is complicated enough on the field.
Keep the tournament formats simple.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
2 or 3 games of AOT plus 3 games of AU each weekend is the same as 5 games of SRTT. Same same.
I’m not arguing to get rid of TT either. I’m asking RA to firm up a commitment to AU or NRC.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war
Hey Conor, thanks for your thoughtful response.
Of course, we should keep playing the kiwis. We agree on that.
We disagree on what the potential of AU is for Australian rugby. What could it become in 5 or 10 years? I think, really important.
There’s a few comments now that it’s not valid to cherry pick the finals for comparison. I’ve given that some more thought, and I’m going to reply as general comment to everybody.
Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war