The Roar
The Roar

Loosehead Greg

Roar Rookie

Joined August 2011

27.3k

Views

9

Published

183

Comments

Published

Comments

It is a valid comparison because both tournaments proposed their finals would be appealing Australian TV audiences and great business for Nine.

Let’s remove our bias – things what we want to see – and look at the cold hard numbers. What do they tell us?

This is urgent information because RA had stated a 2022 plan to increase commitment to TT, and potentially do away with AU completely. Although, I must acknowledge, the messaging has improved in recent weeks as the dismal failure of 2021 TT with Australian audiences would have become apparent to everybody, including the broadcaster.

There should be no hiding from the facts.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

I’m working with all information I have. I do not have a breakdown of Australian viewer numbers game by game, and I hope they are made public for our consideration. If anyone can share a link to the data I would love to look at it.

The other piece of information I do have is this –

“The 2021 Harvey Norman Super Rugby AU season has recorded average domestic television ratings up an average of 144% across the regular season year-on-year.

The ratings do not include the numbers for the Stan Sport platform, and come ahead of the Finals series, culminating in the Final on Saturday 8 May at Suncorp Stadium.”

https://ministryofsport.com.au/2021-super-rugby-au-season-records-144-broadcast-ratings-increase/

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

“For those who want to shotgun my argument to catastrophe like not playing New Zealand at all, that’s not what I’m saying.”

Yet, John Brown says, if Australia commits to a national rugby championship it will be a catastrophe!

Yeah, nah. It will not. It’ll be great.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

Thanks mate.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

Great points Peter.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

I think you’re right JamesD the expat kiwis boost the numbers for those games.

So what do we need to do to get more Australians turning up?

I know! Keep developing national tournaments like AU and/or NRC.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

I agree with every point you make Puff, except for the conclusion. NZ doesn’t have to be a “big part” of the solution. They’ll be in the mix, sure, but we’ve leaned on the kiwis too much already.

We must grow our sport in Australia: and one way to do that is with an inspiring national competition like Super Rugby AU.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

Yep. I think it’s only expat kiwis who object to us taking control of our own rugby destiny.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

The sixth team should be either

a) Fijian Drua

or

b) Presidents XV based in Western Sydney and/or NSW Country.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

Yep. We’ve been playing NZ in Super Rugby for 25 years and slowly getting worse results.

What do they call it when you do the same thing over and over and expect a different result?

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

Brett, when you cherry pick numbers to support your own argument you are being non-scientific.

Bad!

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

Irrelevant.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

You should not remove the outlier event Brett else you invalidate your findings.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

Hi Brett, we don’t have the full numbers for every game yet. I hope they are publicly released.

Knowing a bit about statistics, yes the AU final was an outlier, but that’s what we statisticians are looking for. The upside outliers are stuffed with money.

AU can guarantee games with massive audiences. That’s proven now.

TT probably also can, if an AU teams makes the finals, but it can not do that as regularly as AU.

Thus, we move from statistics to probability.

Q: Which tournament offers the most potential for consistent super linear outlier events?

A: AU

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

Exactly.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

What utter nonsense JD.

NZ’s population is smaller than Melbourne and your economy is smaller than NSW.

There is a 25 million person potential TV audience in Australia which RA can grow into be delivering what Australians want to watch – a national rugby competition.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

Hello Bluesfan, let me just copy and paste a line from my article, because clearly you either haven’t read it, or didn’t understand it.

“For those who want to shotgun my argument to catastrophes like not playing New Zealand at all, that’s not what I’m saying.”

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

That’s very well though through Ken’s other leg. A lot of details there. Good ideas. This is a profound observation –

“we may need to confine our planning projections to 12 month periods.”

Exactly! RA shouldn’t make decisions that bind us to any scenario for a decade. RA should be more agile and iterative. Based on what happened this year, what nudges would improve things?

1) Introduce an NRC
2) Include a 6th team in AU (Drua, Presidents XV or whomever)
3) Add two semi-finals to AU
4) Completely revisit TT: invite Japan and make it a 16 team knock out tournament hosted in 1 country.

Etc.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

Yes. I agree. RA should do all that via AU or NRC competitions, or both.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

I’m a data driven amateur analyst. I’m hopeful that Nine / Stan will release the full Australian audience numbers for every game of AU and TT publicly so we can know for sure.

My instinct though, is if you drew a line chart for each tournament’s audience figures for comparison…

AU would start low and slowly build up each week before spiking in the final.

TT would start high in round 1, still be relatively high in round 2, and then drop away the longer the tournament went on.

I also predict, if you play more of each, the trend lines will continue in the same directions.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

Melbourne has 5 million population. That’s more than all of NZ, let alone one of their franchises.

I would like to see how many TV viewers Nine would get if the Melbourne Rebels made the finals against any of their traditional AFL rivals eg WA Force.

That’s exactly the sort of question RA and Nine should be asking.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

I appreciate the effort and consideration you have given this, but I think that’s way too complex for the casual sports fan.

Rugby union is complicated enough on the field.

Keep the tournament formats simple.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

2 or 3 games of AOT plus 3 games of AU each weekend is the same as 5 games of SRTT. Same same.

I’m not arguing to get rid of TT either. I’m asking RA to firm up a commitment to AU or NRC.

Super Rugby AU thrashes the Trans-Tasman competition in rugby's ratings war

Yep. I think the quality of rugby has been pretty good actually, across all this year’s tournaments. I have enjoyed watching it all, even the Tahs have scored some great tries.

Players and fans deserve better tournaments though.

Over the years administrators have made a string of bad decisions about competition formats. And as a result, we’re still arguing about the best SR format 25 years after inception in 1996!

Fortunately, the pandemic has snapped the administrators out of their coma. We’ve seen the potential of AU. Let’s hope the administrators seize on that, and grow it over time, and keep other competitions short and sweet.

What the Australian teams can learn from the Blues and Highlanders

It’s true the Australian style of play isn’t fully developed. But then, we’ve only had two seasons of AU to nurture it, while the kiwis have had their NPC since 1976.

An Australian style will become clearer the longer AU / NRC is played. Hopefully we’ll see regional styles emerge too, as they have in NZ to some degree, with the South Island teams the most exciting to watch.

What the Australian teams can learn from the Blues and Highlanders

close