Tom Melbourne scratched … 🙂

i don’t know what the race used to be other than a handicap probably on par with England’s Ebor. Some years good, most years = v.ordinary and downright terrible on an international standing.

Remember, this year, 2 Australian bred horses Q’d the Caulfield Cup in a very fast time, beating home the MC second place.

Concerning TDN and BH, I should have said … they are international publications – published across all forms of media, from the united states. You can subscribe to them and they show up in your mail-box every day. i think Bloodhorse has over 4 million website users – web metrics for TDN is over 3 million. They are both benchmark publications in both their coverage and quality.

By the way, Australia has an excellent Industry publication (free online) called Breeding and. Racing.

What an impressive raceday to finish the carnival.

You right about Tom Melbourne. He is flying and he has been trying so hard. I’ve always thought of him as a fast middle-distance stayer. Many forget this day last year he ran third in Queen Elizabeth after finishing 2nd in the Lexus and Coongy.

Wonder if Walker will send him along if they try and drop the pace, maintaining a good clip – make ’em stay … but then he’ll have things like Taj Mahal to worry about. The O’Brien horse has finished within a cooee of some v.good horses that would start long odds-on to win this. shaping as a great race on first look.

The reprogramming of the carnival is working out great for my money.

Well said Pat. The tired, brain-dead, negative journalism and commentary from those whose lives must be a living cliche.

Just ask them what they were doing at 3pm on the first Tuesday in November?

And to ‘Not so super’, ‘nugget’ and … i’m sure ‘kangajets’ will be here shortly …

The Melb. Cup was front page news on every major racing paper in the world. Within 12 hours there were several half and full-page adverts in the United States two major ‘daily’ breeding magazines using the Melb Cup result as promotion for yearlings and older stock that are sold at the Keeneland sales, one of the world’s major yearling sales … why would they do that for a race of irrelevance.

And if you were wondering the international coverage of our spring carnival has been extensive and positively reported in Europe, Americas and the racing jurisdictions in Asia. Australasia is well and truly on the international scene.

Also, the Cup result drew a public congratulatory response from the president of ireland, As for coverage, Racing.com seemed to move along at OK pace. Also the betting? 8/1 the field ?

The sire High Chapparal’s offspring won the VRC Derby and the other the Cup – one bred in Ireland the other in Australia.

So NSS, Nuddet and Kanga (soon to be here) … you know living in a closet is not good for you, you should venture outside occasionally.

Sorry Razzar, i’ve never heard of the person you speak. As i said i’ll listen to trade interviews but i don’t listen or seek out ‘tip’ shows … i’ve got other things to do

a friend read your comments and sent an email this morning saying he found and watched the show you mentioned and ’22 mins’ into it they basically gave Rekindling a mid-range chance?????

He said you might have confused it with some ‘mailbag’ show that has three or four young blokes doing a similar type show and apparently one of them was as keen on him as i was. Good-on him, i say 🙂 . He further said the young blokes weren’t too bad. so maybe it was them?

Mate, i’ve only ever publicly posted here, onTheRoar and i’ve been a pain in the butt to the editors, ‘experts’, significant contributors. But i must respect their opinion otherwise i wouldn’t bother, at all. in fact, i didn’t post during the last autumn as their commitment to our great sport seemed to becoming marginalised.

PS don’t worry Razzar, your turn is coming 🙂 …

v.hard to argue against Aliosa but surprised you left Pinot out of your T4. hasn’t done a lot wrong. She has a seriously good pedigree. If she were to win this i can’t imagine how much she would be worth … probably as much as Aliosa. I think we’ll get a good contest off a solid pace.

Has the Quarterback trialed somewhere after his last start shocker? what went wrong with him? is there a steward’s report … off. vet certificate? where do you go to look at trial-form in Vic? NSW has all trial-form easily accessible and ‘post’ vet-reports are included in stewards reports … all of which are on the RacingNSW website. Victoria – Australia’s leading racing state … really?

Anyway back to business … always liked the tues and thurs were the astute find good value. Nice to see the Ellerton/Zahra team firing, always one of the first teams i look at when they race at Flemington.

Mike Moroney usually warms up around this time. Suppose Pat Carey hasn’t produced his longshot chance yet. Robert Smerdon is yet to strike a blow … very unusual during this week.

Lindsay Park, Weir and Waller have sent some promising contenders into the fight today. Should see where those gallopers future lay after today. The second half of the card looks really good, full of promising types.

All-in-all, a v.good days racing. Good Luck.

Thx Max … but no. Concerning the a best-seller … it has already been written 110 years ago. Here are 4 quotes that governed my lucky stab at this year’s Cup …

1. Successful handicappers know every detail in regard to the horses upon which they are intending to place their money.

2. Special knowledge is not a talent. A man must acquire it by hard work.

3. Watch all the horses racing closely. You may see something that will be of benefit later on.

4. Time enters into the argument under certain conditions but if depended entirely for a deduction it will be found wanting.

Reading through the comments most have missed the ‘controlling factor’ that determined the outcome completely. I’ll post to the other thread or write another small piece that may explain it to the interested. a little hint … it mainly concerns point (4) but i would have worded it differently.

For me there were a few of standouts – Max Dynamite and Big Duke were terrific … and Joseph Patrick … what can you say … training his 2nd Group One winner in an International at the age of 24.

I’ve just realised that I didn’t think about JP O’Brien’s training inexperience at all. His father is already one of the game’s all-time legends at 48 years old.

Imagine a youngster growing up in the Ballydoyle environment … surrounded by superb horsemanship, supported by impeccable, tried and true systems and a passion for the game. He worked hard at making himself an international G1 jockey … never occurred to me that he would be anything other than capable as a trainer.

If you doubt Aidan O’Brien’s numbers, here are a few to think about — Aidan O’Brien started out training as a 24 year-old before being asked to takeover at Ballydoyle a few years later. He has trained an average of 12 Group One winners a year (nearly 300 in all). His Group race tally is over 650 and he is only 48 years old. Remarkable beyond imagination.

But he still hasn’t a little Melb. Cup trophy and Dermot’s got two. Maybe Joseph will let him have a look at his 🙂

Hour away from the off and i’m starting to get toey. Maybe, Chris Waller will lend me Winx’s ear muffs. Another funny thought occurred to me and i hope Ballydoyle and Terry Bailey take it in the humour it is meant. … Clan O’Brien send over 3 horses … sound fimilar … BUT not a pacemaker among them 🙂 .

Thanks all the kind words. Doing ‘form’ is fun. V’landys should see if can get incorprated into the primary school math curriculum.

Good Luck.

🙂 … it is just about done. But i have a few things to do right now so i’ll send it in to the editor in a couple of hours. if it gets published … we’ll all know lol

real interesting weight scale the way it has turned out. originally there was a ‘handicap’ discount of 5pts when Order of St. George headed the weights. He went … and the modification reduced the discount to 3 pts … but low-and-behold with the strength coming through from top to bottom of the weight range the 3 pt discount has been recaptured …

… sounds gobbledygook but it means this is a seriously strong Melb Cup … really tough … can’t wait to see what they run on a G3.

PS good luck … it’s a value card — Cup day card is always great value …

Top-class overview Tristan. Congrats.

I figure most are on with a tighten from 30/1 to 13/1 over the last week or so … Rekindling … “he could prove capable” … oh yeah … you bet … only bad luck or inept ride with get this little bloke beat. Please Cory, not too close, just worry about getting him into a position where he gets clear air at the 300m … and watch him go 🙂 …

Actually, Lloyd and his team of owners have a real chance to trifecta the Cup with three different trainers.

might write a handicapper’s guide to the cup if i get time. 5 horses including 2 that are v.interesting have ended up major advantaged at the weights.

“Wow” is right. But you did write about Qwey’s prep and should remind roarers Tristan was talking seriously about WoFire two months ago. Good call. It’s already looking a Cup that will be decided by the race-pressure giving the advantage either to the fast-stayers or conversely, the endurance stayers. Worry about that later. Although, I’m pretty happy with my shortlist.

Lexus is a real compliment to the card this year … be back after i put the fields through their second sift 🙂 .

terrific race. anytime they get under 2:28 for the 2400m things are good and for them to track record in such great style added further merit.

he can put a horse together that Appleby fellow 🙂 .

Have been very impressed with the Weir horse, Kiwia. Big Memory was good at Moe. So we might see a race that shows us where Qewy is at?

Like you’ve hinted Tristan, maybe there is a few weak links in the amour.

Amazed they put the Japan Cup on the agenda in the first place for the reasons you have mentioned. But there are a few other considerations on a Japan trip …

the full fields will consist of mostly stallions.
she has never have witness a racetrack environment like it, packed to the rafters, noise etc.
which training centre does she go to?
to be run at the Tokyo course – calling it a testing track would be an understatement.

… and ultimately it will prove very little if she is successful. There will be no ratings bump. Going to Dubai … same difference … winning will prove very little …

Going to England, she will be taking on horses in her bracket on tracks (Ascot/York) and distances that suit her … the training environments of either Lambourn and/or Newmarket are perfect … she would think she was on holidays. And if she wins, as i think she would, her place would be enshrined in the elite of world racing history. if she is defeated her current standing will be undiminished.

anyway she has to get past tomorrow … and i’d be thinking about the Emirates Mackinnon too.

wow, what an appraisal of a legend (Winx), sheek. I’m flabbergasted. Although obviously erroneous, it really insults racing history.

i do agree the quality of opposition is the discerning criteria. so sheek how many individual G1 winners has Winx defeated in her 15 consecutive G1 wins (equaling BC) let alone her streak … you must know surely? you’d probably have an idea of the international benchmark of her defeated? how far they were beaten by etc? for you to suggest … “Winx hasn’t beaten nothing good”.

I’ve seen that novelty list of the roar’s 50 best horses. they are all great horses. Wondering, how many genuine G1 horses did Bernborough beat in his 11 months of fame to make the top 10? Excluding his early Toowoomba runs … Bernie only raced serious company for 11 months in his 15 consecutive wins, they were just wins not 15 straight G1s.

Bernie pretty much beat the same horses again and again – not his fault, the war reeked havoc and boy did people need a champion and they got one … by what criteria other than crowd-buzz did he make the top 10? Finishing speed? Ability to carry weight regardless of the opposition? Interested to know.

i see Gloaming is on your list but not Beauford, the Newcastle champ that halted his winning sequence and then beat him again. he isn’t there. Ajax is there but not the late maturing champ Beau Vite who beat him halting his sequence? … Amounis is there but Limerick isn’t? … thought High Caste winning today’s equivalent of 19 G1s from 35wins and only 11 unplaced efforts in 72 starts might have got a little mention. WWII champ-mare Tranquil Star (23/111) shows up on the your list although she finished on the negative side of the ledger to both Beau Vite and High Caste. Anyway a good list for the pub not for a serious student of racing history.

also, using a stable foreman as your reference to what counts as great — that really is a novelty … but to hell with facts … my counter reference to enshrine Winx’s greatness is mrs ida jones of 14 the crescent, willaboota, who says winx is the bees knees and reckons she remembers every good horse from the last fifty years and winx would have beaten everyone of them, so there.

cheers guys.

Really good piece, Justin – Cam. These pub debates are always good fun.

From day one when i seen winx clearly beat felines in 63.5s in a warwick farm 2yrold 1100m in her first start … coming from the last few, and a mile back at the 700m, on a G4 … she had me in, like nearly anyone who seen it.

in all her race starts, i’ve never bet against her, one of the smarter evaluations i’ve made.

the other 3 champs have made me money as their greatness was plain … and yes i did favour Hay List to beat BC the first time they met … lesson well learnt … never did it again 🙂 . As for Makybe Diva and Sunline, i profited from being on both sides of the book, as nearly all champions show their strengths and their weakness.

As for weakness concerning the street cry … Winx has none. She is the best Australasia has ever had.

really enjoyable read. Good work. it’s funny how a few judges are suggesting winx’s age is a current prob that she is or soon will be on the wane, arguably sunline’s best season’s were as a five and six year old. Actually, Sunline would be competitive, but i couldn’t see where she would win one.

For me you are comparing two legends to two champions – the difference between a legend and champion … at least 2.5 lengths :-).

Look forward to part two.

on the right track or should i say lane, matt, and the implications are obvious. Concerning the finishing quinella in each race (20 horses) … 40% (8/20) were the same rank in both morning mrkt and SP. at the end-of-play, the morning market (inc 40% same) was right 85% of the time(17/20) … conversely, the SP could only get to 55% (11/20). That is over 50% more accuracy in comparison favouring the early market or pre-bias buzz.

What it means is that those that did their form well and believed it, or wore ear-plugs, probably had an absolute picnic whether they were players or bookmakers.

Most punters are hazy about what creates meaningful form. you don’t have to be a form expert. there are plenty of simple, useful, logical strategies that can be employed by the recreational punter. BUT there is sooooooo much voooooodoo magic getting around mesmerising the great unwashed that you have to be very discerning to what you give importance.

Pace-Bias has more to with continued race pressure brought about by the better/consistent horses. many ‘better’ horses usually settle in the first two race segments and generally near the fence or the race pressure finds them out regardless.

‘better’ horses force a consistent increase in pressure throughout until usually the last 200m or so when only the brave are left standing. usually, only capable horses can make ground as they have proven in the past efforts.

A recent example was the Everest (Redzel) and consolation race (In Her Time). In Her Time ran a quicker 1200m. Although, the real story lay in the 200m splits – much quicker splits for the first 1000m in the Everest – a race of great quality – only the best were left … Brave Smash at a mile 🙂 .

i was pleased to see Darren Weir question the dumb-a race riding tactics of his jockeys.

Also, maybe wrong but didn’t hear of Marmelo’s change of tactics mentioned … checked twitter and no stewards notification that natural pace-horse Marmelo was going to be dropped out … no official questions post race from Bailey … no vets report … obviously things have changed from previous years 🙂 .

Cop this for a racehorse. Able to find online for your pleasure … yesterday’s Japanese St Ledger 3000m… winner is Kiseki (Orange cap / green-white hoops) – his 8th race start …

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YdGU9POW40

Seriously, some of these japanese stalliions are wonderfully scary – what ever you throw at them, they just chew-it-up and spit it back.

I thought the day would yield a pace bias. some players like to check their own race rankings whether expressed as and also with the books final S.P.

Sometimes a significant change in Morning Odds to SP indicates all sorts of stuff like unanticipated track bias’ – change in weather conditions … you know all the sorts of stuff that can filter into a day’s racing crowd psychology / buzz.

The correlation (close comparison) of morning odds to S.P for the Caul meet was about a standard 92% … in short what the rank they were willing to bet you in the morning was there at the end-of-play. What follows is the relationship for the first 4 over the line at the CC meet … first number = Morning Odds Rank / second number = SP Rank (1 = fav etc). …

Race 1  1/1 2/3 2/2 5/8
Race 2  6/6 2/2 8/8 2/3
Race 3  1/1 8/11 3/4 1/1
Race 4  1/3 3/1 2/1 7/8
Race 5  3/3 1/1 6/6 4/3
Race 6  6/5 3/4 8/7 1/2
Race 7  1/1 4/3 3/4 2/1
Race 8  13/13 11/12 1/1 9/10
Race 9  3/6 11/12 7/3 2/6
Race 10 2/2 5/6 1/1 6/4

Interesting i thought.

i was quite impressed by the first 4 over the line. Boom Time proved to me at his mark (with no penalty in Cup), he was an outstanding fast stayer. Twice in a week he has run a 2:28 Caulfield 2400m. Actually the Caulfield Cup and Herbert Power were run in exactly the same time.

Boom Time is undefeated over a trip at Flemington.

Single Gaze was tremendous as was Kath O’Hara’s ride – moving away from the fence? — damned if you do … damned if you don’t. No demerit points from me.

Love to see JVermeer go to the Cup. Originally, i doubted his staying ability. Not anymore. he was good. AO’B said after Hydrangea won at Ascot G1 2400m Sat night when her distance quality was also being questioned – ‘Galileo’s just keep going’. How right he is.

Going to the Cup, those that finished behind the top 3 have no interest for me. Lord Fandango was great too.

the main might have been average but the undercard was most profitable.

Just watched the opening Ascot race … How far does OoSG margin the MCup if he came … a Rain Lover margin.

Looking forward to Harry Angel in the next. Hydrangea and Coronet to challenge Bateel … interesting to see if Ribchester can confirm his mark Do i bet against Cracksman … hmmm … lets see how the track is playing by then yea maybe … the last is a deadset lottery but …

Nice overview Tristan and between you and Cam what more would an investor need … maybe some confirmation numbers … so here you go. Predicts an interesting CC set-up don’t you think?

HUMI QR06 | bk04 | 106 [1.07] Br11 3.3/3.3/1.5 [42|57|1.10] hr -1
MARM QR05 | bk07 | 072 [0.82] Br08 2.5/2.5/1.3 [38|54|1.00] hr 0
JOHA QR08 | bk02 | 098 [1.00] Br16 3.0/3.0/1.8 [40|58|1.05] hr 0
JON QR06 | bk06 | 090 [0.99] Br12 1.3/1.3/1.8 [38|53|1.00] hr 0
HES QR02 | bk10 | 084 [0.89] Br03 2.5/2.5/2.5 [40|54|1.05] hr -1
SIR QR02 | bk10 | 086 [1.34] Br01 2.0/2.0/2.5 [26|38|0.70] hr -3
VENT QR03 | bk04 | 091 [1.03] Br14 2.3/2.5/1.5 [37|51|0.95] hr -2
WICK QR05 | bk10 | 032 [1.68] Br02 2.5/2.5/1.8 [38|54|1.00] hr 0
INFE QR05 | bk07 | 094 [1.03] Br07 3.0/2.8/1.8 [38|53|1.00] hr 0
SING QR05 | bk10 | 095 [0.99] Br06 2.0/1.8/1.8 [36|60|0.95] hr 0
BONN QR06 | bk03 | 100 [1.00] Br04 3.0/2.0/1.5 [46|54|1.20] hr 0
HARD QR07 | bk10 | 098 [1.04] Br10 2.5/2.3/1.8 [41|53|1.10] hr 0
BOOM QR03 | bk10 | 082 [0.92] Br15 1.8/2.0/1.5 [40|49|1.05] hr -1
ABBE QR03 | bk10 | 088 [0.85] Br13 3.5/3.8/2.8 [39|64|1.05] hr -1
HARL QR07 | bk04 | 102 [1.00] Br17 2.8/2.3/2.3 [47|55|1.25] hr 0
AMEL QR05 | bk04 | 088 [0.96] Br05 3.0/3.0/1.5 [38|54|1.00] hr 0
LORD QR07 | bk08 | 097 [1.07] Br09 2.3/2.0/1.5 [38|53|1.00] hr 0

The Caulfield Classic looks a good race. Should be able to work out where ACE HIGH sits. Although not convinced Tangled it a 2000m benchmark?

TANG QR06 | bk02 | 104 [1.05] Br04 2.5/2.3/2.0 [45|54|1.00] hr 2
CLIF QR08 | bk02 | 096 [0.97] Br01 1.5/1.5/1.5 [44|55|1.00] hr 2
ESHT QR04 | bk05 | 090 [0.87] Br03 2.0/2.0/1.5 [46|58|1.05] hr -1
MAIN QR05 | bk02 | 094 [1.01] Br08 1.8/2.0/1.0 [39|54|0.90] hr -1
ATAR QR04 | bk04 | 106 [1.00] Br02 2.3/1.8/1.8 [51|55|1.15] hr -2
ABER QR03 | bk10 | 083 [0.88] Br07 2.5/2.3/1.5 [43|51|1.00] hr -3
TAVI QR04 | bk02 | 094 [0.97] Br05 2.0/1.8/1.8 [39|58|0.90] hr -3
SWEE QR03 | bk10 | 083 [1.00] Br06 2.8/3.0/1.8 [34|49|0.75] hr -3

What a great race the Tristarc is … worth the price of a ticket by itself.

FOXP QR07 | bk02 | 109 [1.04] Br11 2.3/2.5/1.3 [49|56|1.00] hr 2
GLOB QR07 | bk05 | 092 [0.82] Br02 1.3/1.5/1.5 [55|57|1.10] hr 1
SILE QR08 | bk04 | 118 [1.07] Br01 1.3/1.3/1.0 [50|60|1.00] hr 2
ZANB QR03 | bk10 | 105 [1.00] Br12 2.5/3.0/2.5 [45|60|0.90] hr 1
SWOR QR03 | bk09 | 107 [1.02] Br14 1.5/1.3/1.8 [42|63|0.85] hr 0
SAVA QR07 | bk05 | 120 [1.03] Br03 2.0/2.3/1.5 [55|61|1.10] hr 1
NOW QR04 | bk03 | 118 [1.06] Br06 2.3/2.3/2.3 [50|61|1.00] hr 0
COOL QR04 | bk08 | 118 [1.04] Br08 2.8/2.5/2.0 [54|60|1.10] hr -1
EURO QR03 | bk07 | 098 [0.91] Br07 2.5/2.5/2.3 [47|61|0.95] hr 1
SHIL QR05 | bk04 | 107 [1.01] Br04 3.3/3.0/2.3 [41|65|0.85] hr 1
MERR QR02 | bk07 | 109 [0.95] Br05 2.0/1.8/1.5 [57|58|1.15] hr -1
SOLD QR06 | bk07 | 123 [1.12] Br09 3.5/3.3/1.8 [47|63|0.95] hr 1
SWAM QR03 | bk07 | 106 [1.04] Br10 2.8/2.8/1.5 [42|60|0.85] hr -1
PETI QR04 | bk05 | 108 [1.08] Br13 3.0/2.5/1.0 [41|59|0.85] hr -3

Are you doing any coverage of Ascot’s Champions Day?