The Roar
The Roar

Michael DiFabrizio

Expert

Joined October 2008

830k

Views

381

Published

2.1k

Comments

Michael DiFabrizio is based in Mildura, Victoria. He has been an expert columnist at The Roar since 2009, leading to appearances on ABC News 24 and in the Age. Follow Michael on Twitter @MichaelDiFab.

Published

Comments

You could be right Pete, and certainly I wasn’t expecting some of the swings we’ve had here, but I guess I look at it as a sign of how even the comp is. And there were some unexpected results this week, which is obviously going to change things around a bit. Recent weeks have been more stable than this week.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 20

Andrew, I wouldn’t say that result has been ignored. It counts. But in that situation, North losing six of their last eight counteracts that individual game.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 20

Fixed, thanks JB.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 20

I hate pies, I’m inclined to agree but they did play each other two weekends ago and the result was a 37 point win to the Lions. So that can’t be ignored.

In any case yes, they were very close to swiping places again. Not much has separated them all year.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 20

Cheers for the comments guys. Think people are forgetting that prior to the past fortnight, which has been impressive, the Saints allowed Essendon to get within two goals. The week before that they lost to Gold Coast (!) by 40. You’ve got to weigh up their good and their bad.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 18

Simple Rick — both the Dogs and Power lost by similar amounts (15/19) but the Dogs were playing a lesser opponent while Port were playing a pretty respected opponent (in the four on the ladder, fifth in these rankings). The Dogs subsequently took more of a hit to their ranking, enough to fall below Port. Both teams went backwards, but one team more than the other, hence the (admittedly lucky) +1.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 18

I’m confused? I have two of those sides above West Coast?

AFL Power Rankings: Round 16

Peppsy, not all +1s are created equal. West Coast had a few teams above them drop a bit, so they got a bit lucky on the way up. It’s fair to say both teams improved their standing by a similar amount.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 16

Hey Paul, they swapped places last week. Should’ve had a +1 and -1.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 16

Thanks Lamby. It’s not that sides can’t improve playing against those teams, but if it’s a narrow win against a weak team that will cost you. The win over Port was the most impressive of the current win streak.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 16

Cheers for the comment, I hate pies.

As to the question, “Are you suggesting that, on form, West Coast are the third best team in the comp at the moment?” — Yep, I am. There were three sides I had ahead of them last week that took steps backwards at the weekend. The Eagles, whatever your thoughts on North, did not take a step backwards and if anything grew in standing. This is an assessment of form right now, as you describe, so therefore it shouldn’t be all that controversial the Eagles moving to the top of that pack.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 16

Hey Dan, thanks for the comment.

On point 1, the rankings aren’t a premiership predictor. It’s about assessing where each team is at right now. Hawthorn may well have better odds for the flag but I’m more concerned with their performances, wins and losses aside, factoring in who they’ve been up against.

On point 3, I can assure you West Coast didn’t gain major ground from the Essendon game, even with the 78-point final margin. The same effect happened when Hawthorn also posted a large win over Essendon a few weeks ago. In both cases, not much was gained from the result in these rankings. It’s factored in that big wins against poor teams can only mean so much.

As to the Gold Coast point, this could boost Hawthorn’s ranking in coming weeks, if GC keep showing good form. At the moment it would be premature to declare them as performing in the top 13 teams, I don’t see that as being controversial. But if they keep up what they’ve shown in their past two matches, hindsight will mark up that result for the Hawks.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 15

Thanks Pete. I’d put the North thing down partly to the higher priority given to recent performances. The wins over Adelaide and the Bulldogs don’t play much of a role any more at this point. If we were assessing their season as a whole rather than where they’re at right now, there’s a good chance they would be ranked where you describe.

On Port, I can see the confusion given like you say they haven’t beaten a top eight side. But also remember they haven’t had the opportunity to beat Hawthorn and North Melbourne (the two lowest ranked top eight sides according to these rankings) or Sydney (two spots up). The side in between those teams is West Coast, and Port only lost to them by 8. Go up another spot and you’ll find the Western Bulldogs, who they lost to by three points. I think you’ll find Port’s record against the eight is defendable.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 15

We’ll see, TomC. Expect is the wrong word given Port Adelaide have been prone to disappointing this season. There’s a gap between their consistency and Hawthorn’s, put it that way. But I’ll be watching eagerly.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 15

Vig, if Freo keep playing like they did against Colloingwood every week, they will be competing for last spot here in no time.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 14

Thanks for reading Brian. It’s a fair question, but if you look at Geelong, they’re hardly beating up on poor teams at the moment and they are still ranking in the top 3. I look at the good games and the bad, adjust for the quality of opposition, and if there is a big thrashing, it gets watered down a bit as we know the difference between a 1-point game and a 21-point game is more significant than whether a team wins by 81 or 101.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 14

Paul, fair comment. I’ve said myself in recent weeks I’ve been a bit sceptical of where the Eagles were landing so I’m watching it closely. One thing that’s worth pointing out is that the biggest gap between team this week is between 3rd and 4th, and beyond that it’s pretty tight (hence Hawthorn dropping after a win). So it’s not like West Coast are a runaway fourth.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 14

Andrew, thanks for reading. There isn’t a “starting point” as such, in that where a side was ranked in round 1 has nothing to do with where they are ranked now. Each week teams are assessed on their recent games up to that week. So think of it like one game’s worth of data is added, while another way back game is taken out. And the strength of opposition part of it also gets updated. So if a team beats Adelaide by 10 but the Crows go on to win their next five, you can expect a bump to come from that.

As for the round 1 article, the way we do early season rankings will be subject to review going forward. It’s tricky because there’s less data to draw from. The feedback on that article suggested there was some work to do so I’ll take that on board.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 12

Just games that have already happened.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 12

Thanks for reading, Martin. The rankings look at where a team is at right now, so the overall form of North matters less than how they’ve performed in recent weeks. Some of the calls may look odd, but I’ll note there were plenty of comments last week against certain rankings that were well and truly refuted during the weekend’s results.

To illustrate… Apparently Adelaide were too high last week, they ended up beating West Coast at Subiaco (no easy feat).

Apparently Sydney should’ve been on top last week, they ended up well beaten by a side (GWS) I had two spots higher.

Apparently Fremantle were way too high last week, there was 83 points separating them and Brisbane at the Gabba on Saturday.

Apparently North Melbourne should’ve been higher last week, they lost to a side two spots above them by five goals.

So, like I said, it’s about assessing where a team is really at, without going down the easy road of looking at the number of wins a team has. The ladder already takes care of that.

On Adelaide-versus-GWS for top spot, that’s absolutely a fair debate. I just think the Crows have had slightly more meaningful recent form, but I’ll admit there’s not a lot in it. Couldn’t go wrong with either at the moment.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 12

Thanks mattyb. It’s been very interesting to go through the names in the comments last week and see who hasn’t returned this week, that’s for sure.

The power rankings evolve based on recent form, so there will inevitably be some form of difference at the end of the year, but absolutely I think sides that have consistently been near the top are likely to be in the top four. GWS, as highlighted in the intro, in particular.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 12

richo, thanks for reading up to this point. I appreciate it.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 12

I did not say that Train.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 12

Cheers Paul. Funniest part of it was that I got out-tipped by my own power rankings!

AFL Power Rankings: Round 12

Train, another thing I’ve said repeatedly is that a team’s + or – can be heavily affected by the teams around them. Just look at West Coast’s +1 today. Did they do anything to deserve that? You can easily argue no, but a team that was above them fell further and so they got bumped up. Not all +1s are created equal.

To Dalgerty’s comment, yes the formula has remained fairly consistent. There have been tweaks along the way due to feedback in the comments. One complaint was that big wins against lower opposition were having too much say (generating +4s and the like) so steps were taken to limit the gains from such matches at the same time as acknowledging a big win.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 12