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Michael DiFabrizio is based in Mildura, Victoria. He has been an expert columnist at The Roar since 2009, leading to appearances on ABC News 24 and in the Age. Follow Michael on Twitter @MichaelDiFab.
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Patrick Dangerfield isn't eligible to win tonight's Brownlow Medal. He should be. While Dangerfield appears unlikely to match Richmond's Dustin Martin tonight in votes,…
Prior to this year, three teams in the AFL era have had multiple weeks off during their finals campaign. It ended badly for all…
To say FIFA made some folks angry this week would be an understatement. The decision to expand the World Cup from 32 to 48…
They weren't meant to win three weeks ago. They weren't meant to win two weeks ago. They weren't meant to win on Saturday. How…
The Western Bulldogs are a well-coached football team. That much should be evident in the fact they've made the preliminary final after the injury…
Who's closest to the flag after the first week of finals? There's a big, big sound telling us it's the GWS Giants. Yes, that's…
Here's what we learned from Round 23 of the AFL season: while there are eight teams playing finals, the real interest surrounds the top…
Don't go marking in week one finals fixtures just yet. Though the AFL's top eight is now settled, the jostling over home finals and…
Disastrous wouldn't be the right word, but it was an underwhelming weekend for a handful of AFL clubs. Certainly, when both the Brisbane Lions…
It's all about percentage. The real winners and losers at the weekend appeared not so much to be the actual winners and losers, though…
It was a weekend for milestones in the AFL. Brent Harvey, Matthew Pavlich, Jimmy Bartel, Corey Enright - all players to have left quite…
Could the AFL's top four be settled? Hawthorn, GWS, Sydney and Geelong occupy the prized spots with five matches to play, and they may…
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We wouldn't be saying anything new by declaring it's tight at the top this AFL season, but here goes anyway: there ain't much breathing…
Adelaide's victory over Melbourne wasn't the most impressive of their six-game win streak. Indeed, you could argue it was the least impressive. But with…
St Kilda's record going into the bye was just a little too cute. Against the bottom nine they hadn't lost. Against the top nine…
Should Brad Scott be fined for his post-match comments about the umpiring in North Melbourne's loss to Hawthorn? Yes, that's obvious at this point.…
Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood, Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Gold Coast, West Coast, Fremantle, North Melbourne. That's the run home for the Greater Western Sydney…
It was a wet weekend of football, as more than 250mm of rain hit the Gold Coast in the 24 hours leading up to…
Let's talk about the f-word. Gold Coast coach Rodney Eade went close to dropping it yesterday. Actually, I'm certain he dropped it a few…
I’m with you, CatsFan. Definitely a bad loss for West Coast considering their home record.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 12
Cheers Tom, I think my response to R2k above goes some way to explaining the Swans/Eagles dynamic.
As for the first part of your comment, I’m honestly glad someone noticed. Thank you.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 12
Thanks for the comment, R2k. So the Swans -3 worked like this: Geelong were below them and understandably move up (hence -1). Hawthorn flexed their muscle enough to be in the position to overtake the Swans if they suffered a convincing loss, which happened (hence -2). The other side below them that’s now above them? That would be West Coast. This is trickier to explain. But basically, both played similarly-ranked opposition (GWS, Adelaide) but were defeated by different margins (42, 29), leading to the awkward scenario of the Swans falling further than the Eagles and seeing the Eagles actually bumped up despite a weekend in which they lost ground.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 12
CatsFan is correct, but the drop off isn’t as fast and it goes back further.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 12
Another thing I’ve been consistent about — it’s not about wins and losses. I care about performance and quality of opposition. And I’ve said that from the start. You can keep throwing up that a team is 3-2 or 2-3, I don’t think that’s the most useful way of coming to an answer to the question at hand.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 12
Happy to be back Pete. To answer your question, we’re assessing where teams are at right now. In that context, take Port. Like I say in their comment, they were three single-digit losses away from a seven game win streak. Though their draw in that stretch was somewhat light, there were some impressive performances (beating Melbourne by 45, and even to get within three of the Dogs is a fair effort). For this, they’ve jumped up to eighth. Right now, they are competing down to the wire with teams above them and putting away teams not that far below them. It’s a fair jump.
As for North, when you adjust for opposition their performances don’t look as impressive. In the last six weeks they’ve had a mix of narrow wins (St Kilda, Essendon) and big wins (Carlton, Richmond) against teams below them and 26-point (Sydney) and 31-point (Geelong) losses to sides above them. Obviously there’s something to be said about just getting the four points, but we’ve seen sides above North in these rankings absolutely blow out the Saints and Bombers in recent weeks. The Roos were different and when taken alongside their recent matches against good teams, for me it has them around the middle of the pack right now.
It’s important to remember I’m not saying they are drastically worse than Port Adelaide. There’s one spot between them. Often there can be almost nothing between sides. But I am saying, in an assessment of where each team is at right now, they’re on a similar pegging. I’m happy to stand by that assessment.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 12
Macca, where are they at, right now?. I’ve been pretty consistent from week one saying this is what the rankings are about. You can put the winning percentage stats away.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 12
Train, as I’ve said all year the rankings are designed to answer the question where are they at, right now?. This isn’t a ladder predictor or an assessment of the season so far with round 1 being worth the same as round 12. That North are first, or are one game clear, tells me little about the question I’m asking. Two losses by more than four goals in three weeks does.
Nonetheless, I’m sure you have noticed these rankings haven’t been too kind to North at any stage of the year really. That’s because I factor in who they’ve come up against when assessing a team’s performance. Making this adjust for North has made it clear they haven’t been playing at the level of a top two side.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 12
Thanks for reading as always TomC. You’re correct in assuming a gap between 7th and 9th. Your comment made me look over it again and I’ve just realised how close 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th are right now. There’s barely anything between one spot and the next, which guarantees the Dogs/Eagles will head in different directions. The Giants, actually, still have a bit of a buffer — but the rankings are rarely kind to teams that win twice in a row.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 10
Bill, always happy to explain. The Giants went into the round with a bit of a buffer behind them. They were the clear No 1 side last week and the side that did happen to be closest to them (Geelong) obviously weren’t going to take their spot this week. Hence, they were able to weather the loss to the Crows.
The spots last week from about 2nd to 7th were very tight, very little separated 2nd from 3rd, 3rd from 4th, 4th from 5th, etc… Therefore, the results at the weekend had a big say in whether those teams went up or down.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 10
Bit disappointed in the clickbait comment Macca. If I was only in it for the ‘clicks’ it’d be pretty pointless responding to the amount of comments I do every week. We can discuss the rankings respectfully without shots like that.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 10
Hey Pete, thanks for reading and taking the time to comment. I’ll try to respond as best I can.
In the case of Geelong, their -5 was really a culmination of two weeks of below-par performances. Yes, the -5 this week may seem harsh, but in hindsight the -1 last week could be considered light. Personally I think dropping six spots over two weeks is a fair outcome given their performances. I’ll also point out that it is very tight at the top end right now, so if you lose and others below you win, you’re almost guaranteed to have your ranking affected.
That also helps explain North’s drop. I know it looks harsh, but there really wasn’t much of a buffer behind the Roos going into the round, so it was always going to be hard for them to maintain their spot when each of the three teams below them had quite reasonable wins.
Another thing to point out is that these rankings are an assessment of where teams are at *right now*. It’s weighted so that the most recent games are worth more than those further in the past. That the Crows has lost four games matters less than how they’ve gone over the past fortnight, for example.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 10
G’day Pope. Hope I can explain it for you. The Giants staying the same and North dropping three can obviously be questioned, but some teams have enough of a buffer behind them to weather a loss. In the case of GWS, they were the clear No 1 last week. That meant there was a reasonable gap between them (in No 1) and the No 2 team. But there was a cluster of teams (I think 2 down to about 7) where very, very little separating the teams. North, as a team in that cluster, were going to struggle to maintain their spot if others in the cluster won, which happened.
Take this week’s rankings. Melbourne are one spot above Fremantle. Maybe you don’t agree with that, but let’s roll with this example. If Melbourne lose next week and Fremantle win, there’s a good chance they won’t even swap places. Why? Because there’s a bit of a gap between 14 and 15 in the comp right now, a gap one game probably can’t overcome.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 10
I hate pies, thanks for reading. West Coast I’ll admit is a bit of an awkward one. They could beat Gold Coast by 150 and people would still dismiss it as irrelevant. But you can’t ignore their last three weeks has featured a 100+ point win and 75+ point win, with a decent win against one of the stronger mid-table sides in between. They’ve done what they had to do to rise up the rankings when sides previously above them (Geelong in particular) have demonstrated a need to be lowered.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 10
Hey Spruce, thanks for reading. Yes I have the Dockers above the Bombers and I think it’s fair. These rankings aren’t a measure of wins and losses. Winning helps obviously, but we look at the strength of performances and quality of opposition mostly. It’s also weighted so more recent games count for more. That means Essendon’s win no longer carries too much sway.
Both Fremantle and Essendon have shown competitive stretches. Taking all into account, I think the Dockers have demonstrated better form (or less bad form, if you want to look at it that way!).
AFL Power Rankings: Round 10
Me either Rick! You’ll probably recall a bit of a skeptical tone to my entries on the Giants early on. Oops.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 9
Are people genuinely saying that, Hal? I think I’ve underestimated the Richmond hype machine.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 9
Thanks for the comment Paul. The archives of The Roar will reveal I was among those pointing out things could turn for the Queensland clubs. I don’t think I went as far as saying it would happen within 12 months though. My thinking was more if the correct off-field changes were made (whether the problem areas were coaching, fitness, welfare, whatever…) then turnarounds were plausible. Both clubs have some handy footballers. Another dip (or two) on the draft and bringing in some quality support personnel could do wonders. Of course, I’m not sure either club had that type of off-season.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 9
Thanks for reading CatsFan. Geelong play in patches so they are certainly capable of looking ordinary. At the weekend there was more of that than the impressive side of their game, hence the loss. If i were you I’d still be confident about their overall form though. There was a fair gap between 1st and 3rd last week, so one week want enough to see them drop further than to 2nd.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 9
Big four, like the optimism but it’s the next five games that will probably decide the season for the Tigers.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 9
Crows a bit lucky perhaps Damo, but you wouldn’t mark them down after a good-looking 75 point win either.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 9
Macca, you may want to check Fremantle’s percentage. You may find it’s higher than a certain team you are fond of.
AFL Power Rankings: Round 12