Into the unknown: A 2020 season preview
If there’s been a more bizarre lead-in to an AFL season, then I can’t remember it.
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Adrian loves to settle into an elevated seat looking down on the wing and regularly commutes between Docklands and the MCG. You can follow him on twitter at @adrian_poly where he complains too much about how bad footy is on TV. He likes to rank things.
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If there’s been a more bizarre lead-in to an AFL season, then I can’t remember it.
Stirling started things off with 50-41 on Monday, and Josh had the numbers to back up players 40-31, and now it’s my turn as we enter the top 30.
On Thursday, women’s footy champ Daisy Pearce said on SEN Radio that she thought “Dustin Martin is the best player to have ever played the game”.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but if history is any guide, at least one of 2019’s bottom-six teams will play finals this season.
If five years ago you had suggested Richmond would one day be mentioned in the same sentence as the great dynasties of the AFL era – Brisbane, Geelong and Hawthorn – you would have been laughed out of whatever room or even building you were in.
Not even the most broken, pessimistic Melbourne fan could have seen 2019 coming.
“No, we don’t owe anyone anything, mate, they’re professional footballers with contracts.”
Through good luck and good management, Geelong have played finals in 12 of the past 13 seasons. It’s a ridiculous run of excellence that includes three flags from four grand final appearances.
You couldn’t blame St Kilda’s list-building team if they threw their arms in the air out of frustration after the Suns were handed an extremely generous bailout package to help them out of a hole they dug during years of incompetence.
For the eighth year in a row we have a Victorian team taking on a non-Victorian team in a grand final. The Eagles snapped a five-year Victorian stranglehold last season, defeating Collingwood to take the crown.
Back in 2015, as the Giants were coming good, you couldn’t throw a shoe without hitting someone in the footy community who was fearfully predicting GWS were about to become an unstoppable juggernaut.
Injures and idiocy have done their best to spoil what shaped as the more interesting of the two preliminary finals.
It’s tough to convince yourself this one will be a contest.
In a lopsided first finals round, these sides were at least involved in games that were somewhat compelling.
Semi-final round is always a bit strange. One team coming off a win, the other a loss. The higher-ranked side playing host on the back of defeat.
This is about as good a match-up as you can ask for in the bottom half of the eight.
It might not be the best match-up of the round, but Cats-Magpies is certainly the biggest.
September is always a bittersweet time of the year.
Every team wants to be great, most will realistically settle for good. But it’s OK to be mediocre, or even bad, as long as there’s light at the end of the tunnel and you have a plan to get there.
With the All Australian squad of 40 announced on Monday and the final 22 players to be named in the team of the year on Wednesday night, there have been somewhere between 60 and 60,000 ‘expert’ teams named in the hours since.
Low-quality shots are certainly somewhat to blame for the Dogs’ inaccuracy, but Robert’s numbers account for the expected outcome of each shot and the Dogs are still grossly underperforming.
Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs: Friday Night Forecast
Jesus. No. I’m talking about the 22 players from each side that played last week. The teams and their experience are at the link below if you care to educate yourself. I’m done trying.
https://www.afltables.com/afl/stats/games/2018/070820180421.html
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast
I know I should move on from this, but the Bulldogs had almost 500 games less experience than Fremantle in the game between the sides in round five and were on average more than a year younger. What point has been made?
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast
Come on mate, you literally said to me, “You are talking about the Freo squad. I am talking about the team named this week.”
Anyway, I didn’t come on here to argue about Freo’s list. I just wanted to clarify that the stats in the article were correct. Have a good one.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast
Don, I’m not saying the Dockers aren’t young. I don’t think anyone is saying that. But the numbers you’re presenting aren’t true. Fair enough you’re counting 49-gamer Hamling as under 50 games, that makes 12 players with less than 50 games experience in the named team to face West Coast.
Hamling 49
McCarthy 45
Blakely 38
Tucker 34
Langdon 29
Pearce 26
Ryan 16
Brayshaw 5
Banfield 5
Cerra 4
Crowden 4
Duman 1
That’s 12 named players under 50 games before the bounce, eight under 30 and five under 10.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast
The concerning part is that most of the guys in the 26-29 range – Jones, Lamb, Phillips, O’Shea, Mullett – aren’t much good. Ideally players at that age are in their prime and doing the heavy lifting.
I think the Blues are on the right path, but there’s still a lot of work to do to get the balance right.
Unfortunately, you can’t really rush development, those guys in the 18-21 range need games and time together.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast
Don Freo, I’m talking about the teams named this week and as Freo are playing Sunday they have named a squad of 26, not yet their 22.
An average age of 22 would be incredibly young and very rare, you’d have to go back to the Giants in their second season to find a team that young.
Where are you getting your information from? The Dockers have 13 players in their 26 for Sunday with fewer than 50 games and that’s before they cut four players: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/afl_team_selections#9567
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast
I assume you’re looking at the entire list, I’m talking about the team being put on the park.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast
Fremantle an average age of 24 years and eight months and average games of 81.5, but that’s a squad of 26 so it’s likely to end up a little older and more experienced once it’s cut to 22. They were a little more than a year older on average than the Dogs in round 5 with 12 players with fewer than 50 games compared with the Dogs’ 11; Freo had four 150-gamers, the Dogs none.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast
Unfortunately this was written before I knew Lynch was out. I wasn’t confident in my tip then and am even less so now. Crows are great at plugging holes but there comes a tipping point and Lynch might be it.
Essendon vs Adelaide: Friday night forecast
Can we get the complete list thus far at the bottom of the piece?
The Roar's 2018 AFL Top 50: 40-31
Ellen, it wasn’t intended to be. My response to Franko below accidentally posted here. I tried to have it removed but for some reason it’s just left blank. Nothing more to it than that.
AFL Power Rankings 2017: Round 2
Brett Ratten, Matthew Pavlich, Luke Hodge, Steve Johnson twice.
2000 Brett Ratten
2007 @mattpav29
2007 Luke Hodge
2011 Steveie J did it 2 weeks in a row
2017 Robbie Gray— Swamp (@sirswampthing) April 2, 2017
AFL Power Rankings 2017: Round 2
Yesterday’s piece was great fun and an excellent piece of writing. But Ken is an alleged expert on this site and to not have Scott Pendlbury is worse than ridiculous. If that’s what he truly believes, it hurts Ken’s credibility as a football analyst; If he’s taking the piss, then by collaborating with you guys (who do take it seriously) it’s potentially doing damage to yours. Either way, it damages the trust of the readers.
The Roar’s 2017 AFL top 50 players: 10-1
He was average (at best) week one and good but not great in the prelim. But he was best on in one and one of the best players in the grand final. And he was 20. He also won the B&F at the premiership team. He’s already extremely good.
The Roar’s 2017 AFL top 50 players: 20-11
Bontempelli played a so-so finals campaign? He took the Hawks apart in the semi-final.
The Roar’s 2017 AFL top 50 players: 20-11
*Says Cam through gritted teeth at the Lynch ranking.
The Roar's 2017 AFL top 50 players: 30-21
Respectfully disagree about Taylor. He was terrific last season.
The Roar's 2017 AFL top 50 players: 40-31
With Tom Scully in the 30s, I can’t wait to see how high you guys have Stephen Hill.
The Roar's 2017 AFL top 50 players: 40-31
Unfortunately the McCluggage news came out after I’d submitted the story. But I would have put him and Christensen in anyway as they should be available most of the season (barring further mishaps, which are impossible to predict).
For the Brisbane Lions, the only way is up
Thanks Keagan. Who do you think Bewick and Lester would replace in the 22 I’ve named?
For the Brisbane Lions, the only way is up
I’d suggest you wait for the entire 50 to be revealed before slamming the exercise as a Victorian love-fest.
The Roar's 2019 AFL Top 50: 30-21