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numpty

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Joined March 2019

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Here is a look at work rate – the other half of the story.
Attack – runs per game
F/back: Banks 8.7, DHP 7.8, Beale 6.2
Wing: Speight 7.3, Mark N. 7, CFS 6.8
Centre: Kuridrani 8.5, Paisami 7.8, Meakes 7.3, JOC 7.2
8: Wilson 12.6, Naisarani 12.3
7: Hooper 8.3, Wright 5.1, hardwick 4
6: LSL 7.4, Valetini 7, ASY 6
Lock: Philip 8.7, Staniforth 7.3, Hocking 5
THP: AAA 5.2, Tupou 5, R Smith 3.3, HJH 3
Hooker: Rangi 5.5, McInerney 5.3, Mafi 5.1, FF 5
LHP: Slipper 6, Bell, 4.8, JP Smith 4.7
Defense: tackles/game
F/back: Campbell 2.4 at 65%, Beale 2.2 at 65%, DHP 2.2 at 68%, Banks 1.7 at 83%
Wing: Speight 5.3 at 74%, Newsome 4.8 at 64%, Korobeite 3.3 at 63%
Centre: Simone 9.2 at 74%, Meakes 9 at 79%, Stewart 9 at 82%, Kuridrani 6.2 at 69%
8: Naisarani 9.2 at 83%, Samu 7.5 at 77%, Wilson 7.3 at 80%
7: hooper 14.2 at 87%, Wright 12.6 at 88%
6: Swinton 9.5 at 77%, ASY 7.7 at 88%, Valetini 7.5 at 73%
Lock: Staniforth 11.5 at 92%, simmons 9.8 ay 85%, Neville 9 at 98%
THP: AAA 11 at 91%, HJH 8.8 at 86%, Ainsley 7.4 at 92%, Tupou 5.3 at 82%
Hooker: Mafi 8.6 at 86%, FF 7.7 at 82%, McInerney 7.5 at 83%, Rangi 5.7 at 72%
LHP: Bell 6.3 at 88%, Slipper 6.2 at 82%, JP smith 6 at 87%

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

Korobeite was the WBs most damaging ball runner last year and John Eales medal winner. Also, when you look at work-rate related metrics – tackles made, runs made, passes etc he is the 2nd busiest wing behind Speight. And although he doesn’t have as many linebreaks, he is right up there in terms of tackle busts. So, if you look across all stats he is still well and truly in the conversation imo.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

The wbs actually did make good meters in tight, the problem was a lack of continuity meant that they couldn’t build and sustain the pressure. Rewatching the reds and WBs in 2010-11 I never realised how much Quade and Genia kicked. They are remembered for their flare but both those teams did alot of tactical territory based kicking. Just like kiwi teams, not many realise how much they kick.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

No I wouldn’t. I’d have Uelese in the wider squad maybe as he is a bloke I would hope to develop given his raw potential. But, tbh there isn’t really a standout hooker in Aus atm considering FF was injured so early on. Mafi is good around the ground but the poor lineout at the reds worries me. McInerney has a pin point throw but is on the smaller side.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

Never said i would pick him, just explaining why he is picked.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

Totally agree, just how it seemed to play out.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

Its hard to know. Tbh I don’t think it would’ve mattered the structure they employed (to an extent) because it was more about poor execution. The WBs too easily left holes and got disjointed in defense. On top of this the high error rate and lack of a kicking game meant that no matter the defense employed they would’ve played too much in their own half. I think you could also say that IF they had a better kicking game and turned it over less often (regardless of their D), they would’ve beaten Wales as Wales would’ve had less opportunities, and the WBs more who scored at ease in that 2nd half.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

Or how pre-conceived biases can cloud judgement in the face of evidence. No player who tackles at 62% should make the WBs.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

Uelese is definitely picked on potential, not body of work. But, he is in summary – a big unit. He has an extra 3in of height on Rangi and 4in on FF. Kellaway is far from the best performing winger in Aus, and imo rightly doesn’t get a look in. He would be a boy among men in intl rugby.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

I don’t disagree, it was a gamble that didn’t pay off, but I don’t think they would’ve won with a rush defense either. tbh I kind of respect the balls it took to try it, but obviously was not executed well enough. Japan and Jamie Joseph are lauded for trying a similar thing (attacking wise at least) to the WBs because it paid off for them, the WBs not so much. Look at Kolbe, when all your opponents are big, it pays to be swift. If all the attacks were designed to try and get around a rush, a slide defense could’ve been effective in theory.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

Funnily enough I think that SA game probably meant Beale was retained. He made an impact off the bench running that line close off the ruck and setting up a try. This was obviously well after the game was sewn up and he wouldn’t have stopped any of the SA tries from being scored. But just one of those little quirks. He took the opportunity he was given, Banks didn’t.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

TK also responsible for rushing and shutting down as the last man in the line often. Needs to be compared against other 13s for context.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

Yes I agree with all that. Just to make the case in his absence, I think that Cheika made a gamble and picked a high risk high reward game plan to try and combat rush defense. To make it work he tried to go through it with big ball carriers in Naisarani, LSL, Kerevi MK. This actually worked (WBs often made good meters with ball in hand), but was let down by the high turnover rate due to factors you raise like poor ruck security and a lack of the top 2″ in players making poor decisions/too many errors. The new defensive system they employed also never really gelled, and a lack of akicking game meant hey played too much in their own half.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

Yes true forgot about McAffrey. I get your pt that Banks at least got a sniff, but judging him by that SA game is a bit harsh. The WBs defense was a leaky sieve and in large part due to poor fringe defense by two who made the squad – DHP and Hodge.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

Agreed – you need to look at both and likely pick some players for impact, and some for work rate. A tupou vs AAA conundrum. This to me explains quite a few of the WBs 2019 selections last year. Picking LSL, Latu, Naisarani, MK, Kerevi, Petaia and Beale. There were arguments to be made against all of these players in the lead up to RWC as to whether they should be in or out. But, I think were picked on there impact and game breaking ability/x factor. Some paid off, some didn’t.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

I love it – Speight is better in every metric but ‘looks a little slow’. Kellaway gets a couple of intercepts and is all of a sudden the better choice. Kellaway has made a total of 15 tackles at 62%. Speight has made 37 at 74%! In attack Speight has made 20 more runs then kellaway. Kellaway isn’t ‘not far behind’, he’s miles behind.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

I think you’ll actually find that the selection panel (read: not Cheika) weren’t far off picking the best squad possible. At least half the players noted above were in the RWC team. Add on top some high work rate candidates like Arnold, AAA, MK, Kuridrani and then picking a couple on potential in Latu, LSL, Naisarani and Petaia and you aren’t far off. The only big omissions in last years squad for mine were Speight, Samu and Banks.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

Nice little piece bentnuc, well done on putting the time in. I think your attacking stats as a ‘first stab’ have captured the standout players this season in general.

But I have to agree with PK that you focus on ‘impact’ not work rate, making a similar mistake to those armchair experts who only watch the highlight reels. e.g. looking at hooker you list Abel because he has 4 pilfers/forced turnovers (I wonder if this is a double count in the stats?). But, he only makes 5.6 tackles/game. Mafi makes 8.6, almost double. Similar for backs, you suggest Koro is out of form but when you take into account work rate he is still there or there abouts (I’ll agree he has been quiet but makes my team). He has made the 2nd most tackles (well behind Speight though), equal 2nd most runs, and has the most passes (i.e. touches on the ball). This may also explain his higher error rate.

The error stats you list are interesting and I’m glad that you raised the pt about Hooper, JOC, Tupou etc. Those players that are busier are likely to have more errors. This is an important caveat.

Does the ghost of Michael Cheika live on in our Roar Wallabies team?

That chiefs game showed the value of a good hooker. Chiefs lost their lineout as a platform and couldn’t capitalise on any territory they got. Brumbies rely on alot of off the top variations in their lineouts now so if the throw is off their first phase doesn’t fire which creates alot of their tries. Connal was pin point (0:55) and his throw allowed their 2nd try to happen. I don’t like his lack of urgency though. He doesn’t break his jog to support when a break is made for try 1 (0:22) or try 4 (2:13).

Is the Bell ringing for change in the Wallabies front row?

There is a lack of standout players here imo. FF injured too early to get a good look at him. Stats say Mafi is best around the ground in attack and defense. Lineout has stuttered at the reds but hard to tell if its the throw or lift that is the issue. Mcinerney good at throwing and mobile, but he is on the small side. Unsure of rebels lineout stats to say if Rangi’s throwing is good or not. But his tackling is only at 72%…

Is the Bell ringing for change in the Wallabies front row?

His tip on in that last bulls game also a touch of class

Is the Bell ringing for change in the Wallabies front row?

Tupou looks like the real deal prop to me in that regard. Anything less than about 30m is his best race 😂 imagine the friction of the thighs! His jocks would be smokin’. His hands in combo with bells line running is a tasty prospect. They would have their front row licensed revoked by the old dogs if they saw all this flashy stuff though.

Is the Bell ringing for change in the Wallabies front row?

I think they are fundamentally two different style of players Dilks. hard to know on ruck involvements (which I assume AAA would top), but I think Tupou’s work rate is good. Fox stats has him out ahead in everything by a mile in terms of attack (runs, run meters, LBs, tries etc). But, AAA has nearly double the tackles and obviously works harder in that area. And although AAA is smart very few players of their size have the athleticism that Tupou does. His hands, speed and power – how do you quantify that? Tupou has 3 tries next closest TH is 1, 7 line breaks next closest TH has 1, 12 tackle busts next closest has 5, 4 offloads, next closest is one.

Is the Bell ringing for change in the Wallabies front row?

Stats show that TT gets through plenty of work. Obviously they’re only part of the story but he has played the most minutes this season of any TH prop in SR, most tries (3), most possessions, most runs, most run meters, most linebreaks (7! the next closest is one), most tacklebusts etc etc etc in attack. In D, AAA has made nearly twice the tackles. Both have over 80% completion. This shows that they are fundamentally two different styles of player, but that both get through a good amount of work. https://www.foxsports.com.au/rugby/super-rugby/stats/players?position=tightheadProp&category=summary&sortBy=minsPlayed

Is the Bell ringing for change in the Wallabies front row?

Throw in Valetini, Wilson, Wright and a couple of the young locks in Swain, Blyth etc and there is a good crop of big boys coming through as future WBs.

Is the Bell ringing for change in the Wallabies front row?