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The Roar

Noiret

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Joined November 2020

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Then he should receive alien-ent penalty.

Crows stand down Stengle over third off-field incident

You don’t get something for nothing. Collingwood have traded away their 1st (GWS), 2nd (Hawthorn) & 4th (Brisbane) picks for 2021. They have the Bulldogs 2nd round pick and three 3rd round picks, their own & the Crows and the Dockers. If they need to match a bid on Josh Daicos at pick 1 next year, they could easily be 600 points in deficit for 2022. This would turn pick 10 into pick 24.

Collingwood's draft night

At this risk of adding to the deluge of commentary about the Collingwood Football Club, I feel I should comment on their trading & drafting strategy. Collingwood traded their way back into the draft rather well (from a 2020 perspective) but seem to have dug themselves a massive hole for 2021. By my reckoning, by matching a bid for Reef McInnes at pick 23, they created a deficit of about 250 points for 2021. To get back into this year’s draft, they also traded away their 2021 1st round pick (GWS), 2021 2nd round pick (Hawthorn) and 2021 4th round pick (Port). They received 2 2021 3rd round picks (Adelaide & Fremantle). They have previously received the Bulldogs 2021 2nd round pick & according to Wikipedia appear to have sold their 2021 4th round pick to Brisbane on 2 December. So overlooking the fact that they may have sold their 2021 4th round pick twice, they now enter 2021 with the Bulldogs 2nd round pick & 3 3rd round picks. These picks will be probably be worth 1500 points.
So Collingwood may have to bid match 2400 points for Josh Daicos, already being 250 points in deficit and having only 1500 or so points in the entire 2021 draft. They will take a deficit of 1200 points or so into the 2022 draft, wiping out their 1st pick. 1200 points would turn pick 1 into pick 6, and pick 10 into pick 55. So Collingwood have done well, but the price might be only Josh Daicos in the 2021 draft, and no 1st round pick in 2022.

2020 AFL draft: Club-by-club review, my take on every team

After the draft, I’m going to write an article on this. I think it should have only been swapped for points in this year’s & next year’s draft. If I were Collingwood, I would have offered it to Gold Coast for picks 27 & 37 this year (subsequently traded for not much), and 2 or 3 picks in next year’s draft.

AFL draft 2020: The facts on top 10 picks and the latest phantom rumours

So Collingwood get picks 8 & 14 and then match a bid on McInnes at 15, leading to a deficit of 700 points or so. They then match a bid at 1 for Daicos next year requiring 2400 points, but they don’t have a pick in the 1st round. They go into 2022 with a 1500 point deficit wiping out their 1st round pick.

AFL draft 2020: The facts on top 10 picks and the latest phantom rumours

Since we’re being pedants, I’d like to point out that call between he and Matthew Wade is grammatically wrong. Call between him and Matthew Wade is grammatically correct. Object – it was a call between them, becomes it was a call between him and Matthew Wade. Subject – They are good players becomes he and Matthew Wade are good players,

Green ton makes tough call even tougher

Yesterday draftguru had the Crows with 31 players including Hately, today they have then as 30 excluding Hately. So they may have 7 vacancies. They may use their 5 picks up to 40 and then match on Newchurch.

Why the Crows shouldn't bid for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan with pick one

Yes, but if Campbell and Jones were bid on at 10 or 11, the effect would be similar, rather picks in the 50s would be spared. I’m curious, but it’s possible that there are informal agreements. For example, if I were Essendon trying to persuade Ports to bend my way over the Fantasia deal, an informal promise not to bid on Jones might get the deal thru.

Why the Crows shouldn't bid for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan with pick one

The difference is fairly minor. The Bombers have pick 44, which will move up slightly, and the next pick after that is 77. Probably only 50-55 players will be chosen, so most picks after 50 will be passes and it won’t alter who’s available at 77 and beyond.

Why the Crows shouldn't bid for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan with pick one

If the Crows bid on JUH, the Bulldogs need 2400 to match. This wipes out picks 29, 33, 41, 42, and 52 (2269 points) and pick 54 now worth 220 points decreases to being worth 89 points, between picks 65 & 67. If North bid on JUH, 2013.6 points are needed to match. This wipes out picks 29, 33, and 41 (1628 points) and pick 42 now worth 395 points decreases to being worth 9.4 points, between picks 72 & 73. Picks 52 & 54 stand. In both scenarios, the Crows picks 1, 9 22, 23 & 40, change to picks 2, 10, 23, 24 & 39.

Why the Crows shouldn't bid for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan with pick one

It’s interesting to compare the performances of the Collingwood Magpies and the Port Adelaide Magpies between about 1950 & 2000. In 1950, the clubs were similar, both being the 1st among equals, having the largest supporter base and the most premierships. After 1950, they went in different directions, with Collingwood falling behind other clubs, only occasionally winning premierships and losing a high proportion of grand finals. In the SANFL, Port became quite dominant winning 19 premierships between 1950 and 2000. Rightly or wrongly, the move of Port into the AFL and the decline of the SANFL has stopped the experiment.

How good are Collingwood really?

Collingwood are unquestionably number 1, beyond any peer in the AFL or elsewhere at generating publicity.

How good are Collingwood really?

Quite possibly true, although since neither Collingwood nor anyone else knows how much they’ll be contributing to Adam Treloar, it’s not entirely clear. Nonetheless, if they do elevate 3 rookies, they will need to add a minimum of 5 others, 2 of which will be either bottom of the draft, or delisted free agents. I can see them trying to spin a wrong’un, but it’s still a mess.

Compromise and pandemic define the 2020 AFL Draft

I would like to see the NGAs stand. Perhaps the discount should be reduced to 5%.

Compromise and pandemic define the 2020 AFL Draft

The Crows have to ask themselves what do they gain, and what do they lose. If there were less than 100% chance on a matching bid, they should go for it. The Bulldogs extraction of bid points from Collingwood tells one that they’re absolutely certain to match.
If they bid on JUH, the Bulldogs have to pay 2400 points and it wipes out picks 26, 33, 41, 42, and 54 and leaves them with a small deficit. If they don’t bid on JUH, the Bulldogs have to pay 2013.4 points and it wipes out picks 26, 33, and 41. Pick 42 becomes pick 64 or so, and pick 54 stands. There is a minimal advantage to the Crows at the bottom of the draft, but their pick, Thilthorpe or McDonald, gets $30,000. There’s no great need to “make a point” since the system won’t be in place for top 20 picks next year.

Compromise and pandemic define the 2020 AFL Draft

Collingwood now have 28 primary list players & 6 rookies according to draftguru. At the moment they can add up to 10 primary list players. My comment is that the more players one needs, the less sense it makes to swap 2 picks for 1. Assuming Collingwood upgrade the 3 rookies that played most games this year, they still need to add 7 to their list. I don’t expect Reef McInnes to be bid on before bid 16, which means they’ll have picks 14 & 16, McInnes and a substantial point deficit for next year. They probably want/need more players than that, so they’re left with picks at the bottom of the draft, or delisted free agents.

Compromise and pandemic define the 2020 AFL Draft

Draftguru presently has Collingwood with 29 players for 2021, GWS 30 & Essendon 31. North has 33. Shouldn’t Collingwood, GWS & Essendon be using their 1st round picks to increase their list nos?

Compromise and pandemic define the 2020 AFL Draft

I dislike Eddie intensely, but if you have a choice between a conspiracy and a stuff-up, you should always choose the stuff-up. It’s still quite extraordinary that they didn’t have it precisely written down.
It seems the whole thing went down to the wire. The Bulldogs had Collingwood over a barrel, and in the last seconds, Collingwood caved and gave the Bulldogs everything they wanted, most notably an exchange of 2020 picks that markedly favours the bulldogs. Now it seems, they have different recollections as to where they were at 7.25 pm on Collingwood’s contribution to Treloar’s future salary. I imagine it was all online, and all recorded. That doesn’t stop Collingwood and the Bulldogs having different interpretations, but it does mean that an agreed 3rd party can probably sort it out.

Clubs who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it

I’d assumed that this was discussed, I’m amazed that it wasn’t. I imagined the conversation went
Collingwood We know we have to pay Adam $900,000/a but he’s only worth $600,000/a, so we could trade him for a 1st round pick if we pay $300,000/a. But we know you have some salary cap space, so you could meet us half-way, so if you pay $650,000/$750,000/$850,000 we’ll give him to you for a can of beans. And they did trade him for a can of beans. So I’d assumed that Collingwood and the Bulldogs had split the difference in some way. ie The Bulldogs had paid a bit more in $ than market value, and rather less than market value in draft picks. I assume something similar happened with Stephenson and Phillips. It’s extraordinary that the precise details weren’t agreed. In regard to Peter Wright GC->E & Alex Witherden BL->WC, I assume there was a 3-way compromise, because the player who was no longer in the clubs best 22 was keen to move.

Clubs who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it

Thanks for your comment. I didn’t want to make it too complicated. I figured that only 50-55 players would be drafted, so that picks beyond 60 wouldn’t be used except as points, and picks beyond 73 have no points. I’ve noted your comment about picks climbing, as WB, SS & PP use up multiple points to match, so it’s of some significance.

Over the last few days, several clubs have delisted players, Sydney had 2 spots for 3 players until yesterday, they now have 6 spots for 3 players, so
1. Are they going to list a delisted free agent?
2. Do they have their eye on a player at the bottom of the draft that no one else is considering?
3. Do they want some space for midseason drafts next year?

Is it a good thing for your club to swap picks?

It’d be rather like another Republican challenging Trump in the primary.

Clubs who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it

I’m assuming that Gold Coast won’t need picks 27 & 37 and will trade them out. Surely there are several clubs that would like them very much. Carlton, Geelong & West Coast only have much poorer picks, whilst Collingwood, Essendon and maybe Port could use them to point match.

I’d assume they would be worth together a 2021 2nd round pick. The problem is that Gold Coast really don’t need picks. Next year, they already have 2 first round picks, and can still list academy and zone selections outside the draft. So the thing that Gold Coast will want is to upgrade an extant pick. Collingwood can trade next year’s 1st round pick if they get more points. I originally thought 27 & 37 & next year’s 2nd would get it done, but if Gold Coast in 2021 have their own pick, their concession pick, Collingwood’s 1st pick and the right to pre-list academy and zone selections, it’s unlikely that they will need other picks, so even though they’ve traded out their 3rd round pick, they could still throw in some 4th round picks.

Are first-round picks redundant in the 2020 draft?

The point being, that if the Bulldogs are in the top 4 next year, the point value of this years pick 14 & next years 2nd-rounder is less than that of the 3 picks given away, 26, 33 & 42. The swap pick would have been a fair trade, especially since it helped the Bulldogs with bidding for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. Treloar was the steak-knives thrown in. I think he’s worth rather more than a set of steak knives.

The bluster of the Pies

I’m sure that if Essendon offered North picks 7 + 8 for pick 2, North would probably take it, but would it be worth it to Essendon?

Essendon has 33 players on their list, I would have thought that taking 6, 7 + 8 would suit them nicely. GWS also has 33 players on their list which includes Jackson Hately. So I think taking 5 players with 5 under 30 picks is their best option.

My recommendation to North (for what it’s worth), is that they target an as yet uncontracted player from another club, sign him, and take him in the pre-season draft, since they have 2nd pick, and the Crows are committed to Hately. This would obviate the need for my suggested pick swap with the Suns.

I and others would be terribly amused if North picked off an uncontracted Collingwood player thru the PSD. “Are you pissed off with what they’ve done to Adam, Jaidyn, Atu & Tom?”. Are you reluctant to sign a long-term contract with Collingwood when they don’t honour them anyway?”.
Sign with us and come thru the PSD.

Maybe if North sign a an uncontracted Collingwood player and commit to him thru the PSD, then Sydney, and then Hawthorn could do the same thing?

AFL phantom draft 2020: A very early top 25

I’m sure that if Essendon offered North picks 7 + 8 for pick 2, North would probably take it, but would it be worth it to Essendon?

Essendon has 33 players on their list, I would have thought that taking 6, 7 + 8 would suit them nicely. GWS also has 33 players on their list which includes Jackson Hately. So I think taking 5 players with 5 under 30 picks is their best option.

My recommendation to North (for what it’s worth), is that they target an as yet uncontracted player from another club, sign him, and take him in the pre-season draft, since they have 2nd pick, and the Crows are committed to Hately. This would obviate the need for my suggested pick swap with the Suns.

I and others would be terribly amused if North picked off an uncontracted Collingwood player thru the PSD. “Are you pissed off with what they’ve done to Adam, Jaidyn, Atu & Tom?”. Are you reluctant to sign a long-term contract with Collingwood when they don’t honour them anyway?”.
Sign with us and come thru the PSD.

Maybe if North sign a an uncontracted Collingwood player and commit to him thru the PSD, then Sydney, and then Hawthorn could do the same thing?

AFL phantom draft 2020: A very early top 25