The Crows have to ask themselves what do they gain, and what do they lose. If there were less than 100% chance on a matching bid, they should go for it. The Bulldogs extraction of bid points from Collingwood tells one that they’re absolutely certain to match.
If they bid on JUH, the Bulldogs have to pay 2400 points and it wipes out picks 26, 33, 41, 42, and 54 and leaves them with a small deficit. If they don’t bid on JUH, the Bulldogs have to pay 2013.4 points and it wipes out picks 26, 33, and 41. Pick 42 becomes pick 64 or so, and pick 54 stands. There is a minimal advantage to the Crows at the bottom of the draft, but their pick, Thilthorpe or McDonald, gets $30,000. There’s no great need to “make a point” since the system won’t be in place for top 20 picks next year.

Collingwood now have 28 primary list players & 6 rookies according to draftguru. At the moment they can add up to 10 primary list players. My comment is that the more players one needs, the less sense it makes to swap 2 picks for 1. Assuming Collingwood upgrade the 3 rookies that played most games this year, they still need to add 7 to their list. I don’t expect Reef McInnes to be bid on before bid 16, which means they’ll have picks 14 & 16, McInnes and a substantial point deficit for next year. They probably want/need more players than that, so they’re left with picks at the bottom of the draft, or delisted free agents.

Draftguru presently has Collingwood with 29 players for 2021, GWS 30 & Essendon 31. North has 33. Shouldn’t Collingwood, GWS & Essendon be using their 1st round picks to increase their list nos?

I dislike Eddie intensely, but if you have a choice between a conspiracy and a stuff-up, you should always choose the stuff-up. It’s still quite extraordinary that they didn’t have it precisely written down.
It seems the whole thing went down to the wire. The Bulldogs had Collingwood over a barrel, and in the last seconds, Collingwood caved and gave the Bulldogs everything they wanted, most notably an exchange of 2020 picks that markedly favours the bulldogs. Now it seems, they have different recollections as to where they were at 7.25 pm on Collingwood’s contribution to Treloar’s future salary. I imagine it was all online, and all recorded. That doesn’t stop Collingwood and the Bulldogs having different interpretations, but it does mean that an agreed 3rd party can probably sort it out.

I’d assumed that this was discussed, I’m amazed that it wasn’t. I imagined the conversation went
Collingwood We know we have to pay Adam $900,000/a but he’s only worth $600,000/a, so we could trade him for a 1st round pick if we pay $300,000/a. But we know you have some salary cap space, so you could meet us half-way, so if you pay $650,000/$750,000/$850,000 we’ll give him to you for a can of beans. And they did trade him for a can of beans. So I’d assumed that Collingwood and the Bulldogs had split the difference in some way. ie The Bulldogs had paid a bit more in $ than market value, and rather less than market value in draft picks. I assume something similar happened with Stephenson and Phillips. It’s extraordinary that the precise details weren’t agreed. In regard to Peter Wright GC->E & Alex Witherden BL->WC, I assume there was a 3-way compromise, because the player who was no longer in the clubs best 22 was keen to move.

Thanks for your comment. I didn’t want to make it too complicated. I figured that only 50-55 players would be drafted, so that picks beyond 60 wouldn’t be used except as points, and picks beyond 73 have no points. I’ve noted your comment about picks climbing, as WB, SS & PP use up multiple points to match, so it’s of some significance.

Over the last few days, several clubs have delisted players, Sydney had 2 spots for 3 players until yesterday, they now have 6 spots for 3 players, so
1. Are they going to list a delisted free agent?
2. Do they have their eye on a player at the bottom of the draft that no one else is considering?
3. Do they want some space for midseason drafts next year?

It’d be rather like another Republican challenging Trump in the primary.

I’m assuming that Gold Coast won’t need picks 27 & 37 and will trade them out. Surely there are several clubs that would like them very much. Carlton, Geelong & West Coast only have much poorer picks, whilst Collingwood, Essendon and maybe Port could use them to point match.

I’d assume they would be worth together a 2021 2nd round pick. The problem is that Gold Coast really don’t need picks. Next year, they already have 2 first round picks, and can still list academy and zone selections outside the draft. So the thing that Gold Coast will want is to upgrade an extant pick. Collingwood can trade next year’s 1st round pick if they get more points. I originally thought 27 & 37 & next year’s 2nd would get it done, but if Gold Coast in 2021 have their own pick, their concession pick, Collingwood’s 1st pick and the right to pre-list academy and zone selections, it’s unlikely that they will need other picks, so even though they’ve traded out their 3rd round pick, they could still throw in some 4th round picks.

The point being, that if the Bulldogs are in the top 4 next year, the point value of this years pick 14 & next years 2nd-rounder is less than that of the 3 picks given away, 26, 33 & 42. The swap pick would have been a fair trade, especially since it helped the Bulldogs with bidding for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. Treloar was the steak-knives thrown in. I think he’s worth rather more than a set of steak knives.

I’m sure that if Essendon offered North picks 7 + 8 for pick 2, North would probably take it, but would it be worth it to Essendon?

Essendon has 33 players on their list, I would have thought that taking 6, 7 + 8 would suit them nicely. GWS also has 33 players on their list which includes Jackson Hately. So I think taking 5 players with 5 under 30 picks is their best option.

My recommendation to North (for what it’s worth), is that they target an as yet uncontracted player from another club, sign him, and take him in the pre-season draft, since they have 2nd pick, and the Crows are committed to Hately. This would obviate the need for my suggested pick swap with the Suns.

I and others would be terribly amused if North picked off an uncontracted Collingwood player thru the PSD. “Are you pissed off with what they’ve done to Adam, Jaidyn, Atu & Tom?”. Are you reluctant to sign a long-term contract with Collingwood when they don’t honour them anyway?”.
Sign with us and come thru the PSD.

Maybe if North sign a an uncontracted Collingwood player and commit to him thru the PSD, then Sydney, and then Hawthorn could do the same thing?

I’m sure that if Essendon offered North picks 7 + 8 for pick 2, North would probably take it, but would it be worth it to Essendon?

Essendon has 33 players on their list, I would have thought that taking 6, 7 + 8 would suit them nicely. GWS also has 33 players on their list which includes Jackson Hately. So I think taking 5 players with 5 under 30 picks is their best option.

My recommendation to North (for what it’s worth), is that they target an as yet uncontracted player from another club, sign him, and take him in the pre-season draft, since they have 2nd pick, and the Crows are committed to Hately. This would obviate the need for my suggested pick swap with the Suns.

I and others would be terribly amused if North picked off an uncontracted Collingwood player thru the PSD. “Are you pissed off with what they’ve done to Adam, Jaidyn, Atu & Tom?”. Are you reluctant to sign a long-term contract with Collingwood when they don’t honour them anyway?”.
Sign with us and come thru the PSD.

Maybe if North sign a an uncontracted Collingwood player and commit to him thru the PSD, then Sydney, and then Hawthorn could do the same thing?

I’ve just been running thru the numbers in my head. I think that pick 14 & the Bulldogs 2021 2nd round pick is a fair trade for picks 26, 33 & 42 – 2 2nd round picks & 1 early 3rd round pick.
Considering points, the Bulldogs received 1687 points, & Collingwood received 2109 points if the Bulldogs win the wooden spoon and 1614 points if the Bulldogs win the premiership. If the Bulldogs finish in the top 4, Collingwood receives less points back than they gave away, without considering the issue of Adam Treloar.
Compare the effect of the swap versus no swap-
Bid on Reef McInnes at 19 with the swap vs no swap. Collingwood have gained pick 14, but lost picks 34, 42, 65 & 70 and be 630 points in deficit for next year. (The 759 points to match would have cost them pick 26, and decrease 33 by 30 points reducing it to 34.) Their first round pick next year will be seriously damaged, pick 1 would be reduced to pick 2, pick 5 to pick 13, pick 10 to pick 25 and pick 18 to pick 45.
So they gain 1 pick 14, and probably a late 2nd round pick next year and lose picks 34, 42, 65, 70, and push next years 1st round pick out substantially.
If there were a bid on Reef McInnes at 22 with the swap vs no swap. Collingwood have gained pick 14, but lost picks 33, 42, 65 & 70 and be 527 points in deficit for next year. (The 656 points to match would have cost them pick 26, but pick 33 by will remain pick 33.) Their 2nd round pick next year will be seriously damaged, pick 19 would be reduced to pick 41, pick 25 to pick 54, pick 30 to pick 64 and pick 36 to the end of the draft.
It’s a really, really bad deal for Collingwood.

If Gold Coast only want 1 pick in the draft, I’d suggest they offer 5 + 27 + 37 to North for pick 2. Nominally, the point swap would favour North. North have 33 players on their list and need 5 picks. They could then swap 37 + 39 to Freo for 32. This would be better for Freo in matching NGA bids.

Norths 5 picks would then be 5 + 11 + 27 + 30 + 32 instead of 2 + 11 + 30 + 39 + 71. Overall I think this would work well for North.

Collingwood will be hoping to get both 1st round picks in before any club bids on Reef McInnes. They have a much better chance with 14 & 16 than 9 & 23. Cal Twomey has Reef McInnes going at 20 for example.

Have a look at draft guru. It depends on how many players they already have. Collingwood has the least with 30, so they need to add 8 to their list. They have Brody Mihocek and 2 other rookies who played most games, so they might have 3 upgrades. They will still have to pick 5 in the draft.
The Crows have 31, but they have 5 picks inside 40, a father-son and an NGA likely to go in the 40s, and their committed to Jackson Hately in the pre-season draft.
Brisbane still have 38 on their list (they’ll probably delist a couple), whilst Gold Coast have 36, and will need to delist 1 just to use pick 5 and to prelist their 2 zone selections.

Mark, I’m not a Collingwood supporter but neither Collingwood supporters or non-supporters believe you.
Firstly, your list is now down to 30 players. If you’re lucky, you’ll get good picks at 14 & 16 before another club makes a bid on Reef McInnes, so you’ll get 3 quality players, but be in point deficit for next year. You’ll still have 5 vacancies on your list to be filled up at the bottom of the draft or by signing players delisted by other clubs. It makes no sense to trade out quality players and leave vacancies on your list, or fill them with pick 88 and/or other’s discards, unless there’s a big problem with the salary cap.
Secondly, whilst we don’t know what precise details have been done, we can make an intelligent guess. Collingwood had a contractual obligation to Adam Treloar for $900,000/a. It was reported that the Bulldogs value him at $600,000/a which would mean Collingwood may still be on the hook for $300,000/a. Now if Collingwood had traded him to the bulldogs on that basis, he would have been worth a first round pick, whereas swapping pick 14 (1161 points) for picks 26, 33, and 42 (1687 points) markedly favours the Bulldogs, enabling them to grab Jamarra Ugle-Hagan without going substantially into deficit. It’s clear the Bulldogs knew you were desperate and dictated terms.
So I assume what happened is that the Bulldogs had some cap space, and agreed to pay maybe $700,000/a providing they received him for a tin of beans.
I imagine something similar happened with Stephenson and Phillips.
So Collingwood have tipped out 4 players, to be replaced by picks at the bottom of the draft, or by offering a 2nd chance to delisted players.
You and the rest of the Collingwood hierarchy are simply digging a bigger and bigger hole. Stop bullshitting. We all know you monumentally screwed up the salary cap.

Collingwood’s performance is quite extraordinary. Picks 26, 33 & 42 (729+563+395=1687 points) are worth far more to WB than pick 14 (1161 points), given that either way they’ll use the points to match a bid on Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. Arguably, they’re worth more to Collingwood too who have to match a bid for NGA Academy prospect Reef McInnes.
So Collingwood gave Adam Treloar away for a 2021 2nd round draft pick, and a 2020 pick swap that markedly favours the Bulldogs.
Let’s suppose that another club bids on Reef McInnes at pick 19, where Cal Twomey has him in the October form guide. Collingwood will need 759 points to match but have only 129 left. A 630 point deficit will be deducted next year, pick 1 would be reduced to pick 2, pick 5 to pick 13, and pick 10 to pick 25.
Or if another club bids on Reef McInnes at pick 22, Collingwood will require 656 points to match, leaving a deficit of 527 to be deducted from the 2nd round next year. Collingwood had better hope that the Bulldogs don’t make the Grand Final, because then their pick will be worth less than 527 points!!!. Even if the Bulldogs are 8th, their 2nd rounder will be worth 653 points, so instead of pick 29, it’ll drop down to pick 62.
The catastrophe will continue into next year.