The Roar
The Roar

Peter Staines

Roar Rookie

Joined April 2021

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Dees-Lions GF Exacta is $11.00…Dees v Port $8.00 or Lions for me…

The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Finals Week 1

The winner of Port-Cats has a 85% chance of getting to the Grand Final based on last 20 years of results if you are trying for an exacta for the GF…Dees-Port is $8.00

The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Finals Week 1

For what it is worth, the last 10 years have seen the following mouth-watering statistics when it comes to 1 v 4, 2 v 3, 5 v 8 and 6 v 7 in the finals. 1 v 4 80% chance of winning, 2 v 3 is 60%, 5 v 8 is 60%, 6 v 7 is 20%. Last 15 years, pretty much the same thing…1 v 4 80%, 2 v 3 60%, 5 v 8 53%, 6 v 7 20%. This is for favourites to win. Or it is 12 wins from 15 games 1 v 4, 9 from 15 2 v 3, 8 from 15 5 v 8 and 3 from 15 6 v 7. Better put a dollar on GWS?

The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Finals Week 1

Look up the history of sides winning 3 flags from a block of 4-5 years…History says no flags for the Yellow and Black in the next 10 years, maybe 15-20. Dees 57-60…still waiting, Roos ’75-’77, 19 years (’96), Hawks ’88-’91, 17 years (’08), Lions 2001-2003…still waiting, Cats 2007-2011…still waiting. Get out the dvd pack and be thankful for that. The aflw tigers will win one before the seniors do…

Don't write off Richmond just yet

Like a lot of us, my bias is from childhood handed down to me as a kid who couldn’t know any better. My dad grew up in Clifton Hill besides the old Vic Park (Collingwood) Footy Ground and my earliest recollection was the 70 grand final and 71 prelim final and I remember listening to it on the radio while we were washing my dad’s car in Sorrento, Victoria. Hafey’s Heroes and all that, they just grew on me. Yes, I know we suck at GF’s. I’m not about to say were are better than any-one else rah, rah, rah. I’m just pointing out history and time allows sides to win either one or a block of 3 in the tigers scenario, hawks, lions, etc and none of those teams ever went on to repeat it. For round 20, you’ll be doing well to beat Freo…And if the Cats fall over to the Roos this week, or just win, my suspicions will be confirmed that it’s Melbourne’s to lose…Dees beat Cats 4 goals earlier in the year, Cats lose to Crows 4 goals, Dees lose to Crows 1 point, Dees beat Roos 30 points…work out the math…Dees are a 3-4 goal better side if those 2 play off…
I’ve had to bet against Pies all year, but best bets for this round would be Pies over WCE by 15, Freo 10 points over Tigers in Total Points Under (Tigers win 40% (2-17-2021) if they don’t score 84 or over), Blues lead HT into Saints FT, Swans HTH & Over Total Points, Cats to lead at HT into Roos heart attack at the death 1 point…I’ll own it if these don’t come off…

Don't write off Richmond just yet

100% agree…be funny if they started missing the 8 3 or 4 years in a row not unlike that many years ago…Everyone thought easy draw, they’ll come home like a steam train…4 losses to crap…bottom line is this…Tigers, WCE, GWS and Pies (my mob) all were the dominant 4 for at least 3 or so years…And they are all where they are at simply because lists change and sides slide…No more flags for any of them for another 5 to 10 years minimum. WCE might have a GF appearance in them (would have to be next year or 2), the others are done.

Don't write off Richmond just yet

I’m sorry, you’re not talking about Richmond winning the flag, are you? 4 flags from 5 years belongs to the Hawks in the 80’s, Dees in the 50’s, etc…It won’t be 4 from 6 either. Other sides have gone past them, they’ll find it impossible to do a rebuild and tease their supporters another one is on the way…not going to happen. Sorry, Ghost, get out your dvd set with the tigers in ’17,’19 & ’20 and keep watching it…and as for your coach, stop whining where you’re playing your games at…be grateful you’ve got a well paying job and listen to the other coaches…never hear them sook about grounds having no soul… please!

Don't write off Richmond just yet

As a long suffering pies supporter (70’s – now) I absolutely love this talk. Not because I have a dislike of Buckley. What Eddie and Buckley have done together since the Malthouse days (didn’t agree he had to go) has been fine. But, I do agree they need some-one from outside the club to shake things up a bit and put their own stamp on it. Malthouse, Matthews, Hafey were all outsiders and brought with them great success. Collingwood personnel being coaches doesn’t seem to have the same history of success to it. Nathan’s had a fair crack at it. Giansiracusa sounds from media reports to be a great coach, I’d be ok with him coming in. History says if you’ve had a year or 2 of success at the last 2 weeks of the year (2018-2019) and the slide happens, it’s a rebuild. Would have to agree with you on your article…perhaps a partition for the members to sign? Wake them UP!

A letter to the Collingwood Football Club

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