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Redondo

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Joined May 2017

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Hack

Your comment about the banks is a bit disingenuous. The big 4 get a multi-billion dollar market advantage because of the government’s bailout guarantee.

The banks earn from that advantage because:

– they can access cheaper money because their lender knows the bank is government guaranteed

– the bank can make riskier, higher return investments because they know the government will bail them out if it all goes pear-shaped.

– it makes the banks more appealing for investors and customers than non-guaranteed financial institutions (including smaller banks).

I’m pretty sure the guarantee also has a negative impact on the government as well by increasing its cost of borrowing money. Taxpayers bear that cost.

Whatever, bank guarantees are another example of how capitalist countries like Australia happily privatise profits and socialise losses (and risks), when it suits them.

Feeling sorry for out of work A-League players? Don’t

More from the Guardian…before reading, just remember the coronavirus is around 7 to 10 times more deadly than a seasonal flu.

“If anyone is still unclear on the numbers risk here, the UK’s Channel 4 has spoken to Hugh Montgomery, who is the director of the UCL Institute for Human Health and Performance at the University College London (and also the guy who discovered an allele of the gene that influences physical fitness, if you need more of his bona fides) about just how contagious Covid-19 is.

If you had the flu, you would give it to about 1.4 people. Then those people would pass it on and so on, so by the tenth time your flu has been passed around, you are responsible for 14 cases.

With coronavirus, everyone infected with it can pass it on to three people (because of how infectious it is), so if those three people pass it on to another three people and so on, until your original infection has been passed on 10 times, you can infect 59,000 people.

That is 59 thousand.

That’s why it is considered so dangerous and that is why the world is shutting down.”

We need to shut down non-essentials right now, A-League included.

Should the A-League still be on tonight?

Not sure if you have seen this Fadida, but it’s one of the best articles I’ve read about our options for dealing with this. It tallies with your comments.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/21/the-case-for-shutting-down-almost-everything-and-restarting-when-coronavirus-is-gone

Should the A-League still be on tonight?

Last year, Morrison announced the budget was back in black…next year.

Next year, Morrison will announce policies to halt the coronavirus…last year.

It’s pentecostal Zen at work.

A-League and national codes' stubbornness shows where priority lies in Australian sport

Yes – I read all of that stuff long ago. I have no problems with using stats to work out what usually works. You would be insane not to. But, the stats are not perfect and depend on lots of subjective judgements.

My particular issue with this article is the assumption that a historical view of what worked in the past can reveal a lie about current table positions.

Surely the way the stats are compiled has to be continually revised to reflect changes in tactics. If not, the tactical innovations and resultant successes of people like Cruyff, Bielsa, Guardiola and Klopp would never be reflected by the stats.

Mourinho’s successes too are highly relevant, because his approach was so different to those four. The xG stats for 17/18 had Mourinho’s Manu team 5 positions and 20 points short of their actual results.

And who knows how the stats would have reflected Ferguson’s successes, which owed more to his people management skills than any sophisticated tactical ideas.

This season's A-League shows that the table does lie

Shabab

I would have thought a good use for these kinds of stats is to help coaches work out what successful teams do that makes them successful.

The problem is ‘success’ is defined by where teams finished on the table in past seasons. So the stats, at best, represent what worked in the past, not what’s working right now.

When the table positions according to the stats don’t align with the actual table positions then it’s the stats that need to be adjusted, not the table position. The table position is the objective fact the stats aspire to predict.

The EPL this season is a great example of how the stats are deficient. Liverpool is 25 points clear of Man City in the real world, but 4 points behind them in xG /xGA world.

With such a disparity in outcomes, the stats obviously need adjustment because Klopp is clearly doing something with Liverpool that the stats are missing.

This season's A-League shows that the table does lie

I don’t think so Shabab – I’ve found no amount of refreshing gets the line breaks back for edits of an already posted comment.

This season's A-League shows that the table does lie

I see what you mean Matthew, but whatever we say it’s hard to argue with the stats sceptics who say “the table doesn’t lie”.

This season's A-League shows that the table does lie

It’s not your fault Matthew – the edit tool messes up the formatting when you edit a comment. A really basic fail for an edit function.

This season's A-League shows that the table does lie

Based on this article, it’s obvious xG doesn’t account properly for the quality of a team’s goal-scorers and goalkeepers. That is, if you have Hoffman on the end of what would normally be an xG then you should multiply the value of that xG by .02 (or thereabouts). If it was Fornaroli you would multiply by 1.5.

If these stats accurately reflected the real world then over time the stats would tend to coincide with end-of-season table positions. If you were training an AI system to predict the winner of a comp then the only real measure of the system’s quality would be how closely it matches the end-of-season table positions.

If you compare this to how you train an AI system to recognise a disease then the end-of-season table is like the diagnosed disease. The known diagnosis is an objective fact and the system is trained to zero in on those things that point to instances of the disease prior to actual diagnosis. Concordance with the actual cases is how you measure the system’s quality. By analogy, the objective measure of a football AI system’s quality would be concordance with the end-of-season table.

The problem with football though is every competition has a range of different factors affecting the eventual outcome. Omitting any of those factors might affect the reliability of any prediction tool when applied to a particular competition. That is perhaps why overseas coaches have such a chequered history in the A-League. Maybe their predictive stats haven’t been calibrated for A-League conditions.

There is a tactical element that I don’t think the stats capture either. For example, as a regular Sydney FC watcher I could also argue that the raw stats don’t account for Sydney’s ability to shift gears during a game. Because they can do that Sydney’s stats are lower than they might be under real pressure and they regularly beat teams without necessarily dominating them for a whole game. You would have to incorporate something like the heart rate readings of each player to capture something like that in predictive stats.

This season's A-League shows that the table does lie

My knees think up is fine but down is bad.

What happens if there's no more A-League?

When I were a lad, we stayed in a liftless pensione in Rome and had to climb 269 stairs from the foyer to our room. We made sure we only went out once a day.

What happens if there's no more A-League?

‘One dong’ is a bit presumptuous. And none of me secretly admires Robbie Fowler’s coaching, although he does do good gritted teeth.

What happens if there's no more A-League?

I had to go to a pharmacy this morning – it was unavoidable – and social distancing ain’t a thing where I live. About 10 people plus 5 staff, young and old, several obviously unwell, milling around the script counter. The only social distance I saw was people avoiding eye contact. I’m not sure what you have to tell people to get them to behave sensibly.

But for now, I should stop talking to yourself, or, you should stop talking to myself, or something like that – it’s very confusing.

What happens if there's no more A-League?

Suspending interest on credit cards sounds like a great idea, a bit like suspending mortgage payments. Basically, yellow flagging aspects of capitalism for a period.

Did you see Jeff Bezos’ version of Mid’s idea? He suggested Amazon staff with unused sick leave could donate it to staff who have run out already. What a guy!

What happens if there's no more A-League?

Infections seem to be spiking alarmingly so I think you might be right. We know a few doctors/specialists/nurses and they aren’t at all optimistic about how this will turn out. And you guys working in our hospitals and medical centres deserve a medal – already!

What happens if there's no more A-League?

This will all come unstuck as soon as one player tests positive.

A-League and W-League seasons to continue without fans amid coronavirus outbreak

Charity is laudable but nowhere near as effective as government action can be. It’s so much harder for randomly supported charities to distribute money equitably or efficiently. And our government could borrow far more money for nothing at the moment anyway.

Things a gov could do? Like Italy, suspend home mortgage repayments. Or, bump up government support for renters. Or, pay young, low risk unemployed or underemployed people to do home deliveries in unused gov vehicles (gov depts will be in lockdown shortly I think). Just increasing Newstart and eliminating qualification periods would be a good start.

What happens if there's no more A-League?

How are things currently where you work Fadida?

What happens if there's no more A-League?

That’s a horrible situation you had Pacman. I’ve been wondering how many people in places like China, Iran and Italy have died in isolation with no contact allowed at the end with their families.

How will the A-League weather the coronavirus storm?

Apparently the Chief Medical Officer is now recommending cancelling public events attended by over 500 people.

How will the A-League weather the coronavirus storm?

Disinfect the balls at half-time?

How will the A-League weather the coronavirus storm?

Morrison and Frydenberg are the Spinner and Paddlefoot of Oz politics. Sadly they have no Clutch Cargo to bale them out.

How will the A-League weather the coronavirus storm?

I won’t be going to the footy but I do hope Scotty does.

How will the A-League weather the coronavirus storm?

I think you meant ‘mettle’. But, then again, Morrison might as well be a bronze statue for all the ingenuity he shows in a crisis.

How will the A-League weather the coronavirus storm?