It’s an interesting one re the Tahs as any reasonable person wouldn’t expect RA to be able to do much to turn things around in the red hot minute they’ve been “running” the show but the reduction in RA funding over the last few years is a big part of why the Tahs are where they are. They’ve helped create the mess they’re now obliged to fix.

If the Rebels are done and a larger contingent of key Rebels players end up in NSW (as will probably happen given the holes appearing in the Tahs roster), it’ll give credence to doubts around financial viability being the predominant reason not to greenlight the Tarneit option. There will be plenty for the tin foil hat brigade to sink their teeth into.

Pretty sure they also had the Drua on a card warning at scrum time as well by that point. Midfield scrum 5 out with a yellow a likely outcome or 3 points. No brainer.

I agree that the lineout had a bigger impact that Vunivalu on the Reds fortunes but the improved performances of the other outside backs has surely called into question his selection going forward. Yes without Petaia or Suli it’s a pretty small backline but Grealy, Aubrey and Ryan are coming along nicely and Campbell, Petaia and Annan should all be priority re-signings.

I think Suli still has a year or so on his contract but if we are at risk of losing any of the above I hope the QRU/RA find a way to get Suli into a more lucrative contract overseas so we can allocate more resources to those other players. Not that we would ever find out but it’d be incredibly frustrating if we lost Petaia by $100-200k or one of the other blokes for an ever smaller amount.

I might be wrong here but looking at the 2024 roster to me it appears that academy pathway players make up:

– 4 of the 7 props
– 0 of the 3 hookers
– 2 of the 4 locks
– 3 of the 6 backrowers
– 2 of the 3 halfbacks
– 3 of 3 flyhalves
– 2 of 4 centres
– 3 of 5 outside backs

That’s over half the squad being part of the Tahs system before they became prevalent in Shute or elsewhere and I’m not even taking into account whether they were part of the academy pathway before they left to take opportunities elsewhere and returned so it could well be 3/4 of the squad.

With that sort of percentage you would have to say a lot of your “cronyism” selections are getting through to the main squad. The Tahs fall down where every other Aus Super team bar the Brumbies does in getting that talent to the level required to win at Super level consistently. In my view the talent they have been prioritising is good enough but poor roster management, player development and a few bad lineball calls on which young talent to back has got them unstuck over the last decade and led to the financial malaise and roster exodus.

We could discuss ad nauseam the merits and demerits of selecting based on longer term potential rather than current ability for academies and under 16-20 teams. I don’t think it is necessarily wrong to ignore a 20 year old who you believe has hit their playing ceiling for an 18 year old you believe has a higher ceiling and you want to accelerate their development.

I understand from your other posts that you feel the opposite and you may well be right to do so.

Yes obviously mate but the context of this discussion that you’ve missed is at the time Cale was playing Colts and SS, the Tahs had prioritised Williams, Harris and then Gleeson by the look of things, which isn’t a glaring mistake in judgement re missing Cale because those 3 are good players and you can’t sign everyone. Do you follow?

Halangahu would be a cracking option but the sense you got from that interview he did earlier this year is that NZ is more a home to him these days and he likes the pathway he is on there. Maybe a HC role is the only thing that could pry him away?

Yeh we might have crossed wires here. I’m saying the Shute Shield graduates in the Tahs don’t set the world on fire compared the ones that make the Tahs through the academy.

I think you’re saying that the Shute Shield pathway players are much better than those who’ve come through the Tahs academy, and there’s even more who give the game away rather than stick it out in SS when they don’t get the recognition you believe they deserve.

I watch a little bit of SS as a couple of boys from my club up here have made the trek down south to Easts and Gordon and the players that stand out to me seem to be involved with the Tahs or have been previously. You’re closer to it then I am obviously but just odd to me that they’re apparently missing that many standouts in Colts or SS.

If you were saying that they let other professional programs like the Brumbies or the Force get the better young talent I could completely understand that viewpoint.

Charlie Cale looks special and sounds like the Tahs have tried to get him back recently but failed, but you look at who they prioritised instead in J Williams, W Harris and L Gleeson who are no slouches so it’s understandable that they were the priority. It’s not a glaring mistake like has been alluded to here. You can’t sign everyone.

Sounds like there is too much talent in the state because the NSW kids that I see stay in the local system and the ones that go into the Brumbies, Force and Rebels academies are very handy.

If you’ve got talent as good or better than that giving up the game after Colts then they need to find a way to better monetise the third tier so these kids have a financial incentive to stay in the game and go through to first grade where they become more visible.

It still strikes me as odd as I’m involved with the Colts team at my club here in Brisbane and we have an ongoing dialogue with relevant Reds staff about which of the players in our program they like and which we think they should look closer at. We had them reach about one kid last week who has never been part of any rep set ups before and is playing the house down. I know they do that with pretty much all the coaches here so yeh odd to me that they are missing that many good Colts down your way.

The obvious improvement last year from a punters point of view was in the Rebels attack. Do we attribute that to the introduction of Sampson or was Foote’s vision starting to filter through?

Has Stiles done a good enough job in his role to warrant filling the vacant Tahs one? Or is he too culpable in the position the Rebels find themselves in now? You get a scrum coach as well as a GM with him so cost saving tick.

If the Rebels go my uninformed opinion is go with Friend as head coach with as many of the Rebels coaches as is appropriate in the other disciplines. Making assumptions about their relationship and timelines in Ireland but you would think there are good synergies there with Friend and Schmidt as a result of their previous working relationship.

It’s a bit callous but a clean sweep of staff and an already gutted playing group means you have an almost clean slate to buy into whatever brand of rugby Schmidt espouses, which seems to be a winning one.

As much as I have doubts about anyone’s place in Super Rugby I think the Force are filling a pretty important role at the moment by bringing players like Potter, Dolly, Tizzano, BPA and maybe Porter back into the Aus rugby ecosystem while also ensuring players like Williams and Harris stuck around as well after the Tahs mistakenly (hindsight of course) prioritised other players over them who are now flying the coop.

I agree that NSW problems = Aus rugby problems but I don’t think the Force have been as rapey and pillagey to the detriment of other programs as they and the Rebels have been in the past. It seems to me that lately they’ve mostly been getting the Reds, Tahs and Brumbies rationalised players rather than prefered starters.

I honestly don’t think they will struggle over the next few years regardless of whether the Rebels are around (as long as they can pick up another quality outside back) because the roster is starting to take a nice shape.

Look at some of the transfer lists in the Premiership and URC at the moment. This much blood-letting of “high level” talent isn’t great but it’s not uncommon in struggling programs.

I find this one hard to believe unless you’re saying that these blokes stop playing after Colts or go overseas?

I’m not in NSW but I’ve been watching club footy for a long time up here in Brisbane and I reckon the Reds are doing a pretty good job of identifying the best of the age group talent they can afford to sign while also getting the best that have developed through club land like Ryan Smith, Seru Uru etc. The Rebels have pinched some good club developed players but no one that you would get hysterical over as a Reds fan. Makes me doubt the Tahs have been doing much differently.

From what I can see, the Shute Shield players that go into the Tahs aren’t at such a level to suggest that they are getting it horribly wrong at the academy/development level.

Again I’m not close enough to the NSW game to really know, but who are some of the these former Colts players from the last few years that the Tahs ignored to their detriment as evidenced by them killing it elsewhere? Are you talking about Charlie Cale?

It seems like the NPC is a point of difference not just in preparing players for Super but also because it allows development players to earn decent extra coin on top of their academy salaries or the like.
That’s part of the issue in Aus in that to secure good talent we need to be paying decent coin for “academy” players because our clubs can’t offset a low academy wage with club footy payments. By the look of it NZR has realised they are haemorrhaging money through the NPC and are taking steps to address that aspect of it.
I don’t buy the idea that NZ go after footballers first. I think their longer school comps result in the greater skill level and game awareness which make them all look/play a bit better than some of our boys, but they are constantly looking for size and athleticism as a priority because the modern game demands that in most positions.
The challenge for rugby in Aus is how do you create a self sustaining third tier so that development players are playing a high enough level of footy and getting remunerated for it so it isn’t as large a drain on Super teams resources.
As to the Tahs specifically. Sure they’ve missed talent and it appears they haven’t developed what they do have effectively enough, but they are between a rock and a hard place in massive French clubs are offering substantially larger academy wages now while they and Japan also rip the main squad to pieces. You can see through the way they’ve developed Walton that they aren’t clueless to the process but they also get shafted when they do take their time like with Wilson and Tuipulotu who have left for greener pastures. Rough when two of the three blokes they had for life after Perese leave when he leaves.
This is a problem of rugby’s own making in Aus as we didn’t expand sustainably so RA and Super teams finances are diabolical but I think we’ve gotten better as a whole at identifying and developing talent across the country which can be seen through improved performances at under 18 and 20 levels, just that improvement has come 15 years too late and we are struggling to retain the ones that don’t becomes Wallabies.

You would be hoping that the familiarity that those who step into first receiver (Gordon, Paisami and Campbell) have with Tate mitigates the sloppier parts of his service. TWI only takes you so far when someone has deficiencies in their game compared to alternatives right?

As an aside my preferred backline for Wales is currently White, Gordon, Daugunu, Paisami, Ikitau, Wright, Kellaway but the inconsistency of the Aus teams/players has had me changing my tune on an almost weekly basis. Not heavy on the TWI but enough combinations and familiarity there that it should go alright. Don’t ask me about goal kicking…

I always thought Lucas was a better 15 than 10 as he was pretty elusive in the wider channels, had a good turn of pace and was really good at creating space for his wingers.

Thinking aloud, I don’t think you’d ever be able to get it over the line because of club commitments but would love RA to try and organise tour matches against a predominantly Aus qualified Baabaas team in either Japan or Europe on spring tours.

Japanese clubs might go for it if there was a good mix of Japanese players getting a run but can’t see the Frogs coming to the party. You would think you’d get a decent crowd in Twickenham/Japan for something like that and it would be provide valuable data for the ongoing conversation around eligibility.

It would be unreal from a fans perspective to see how a Maddocks or Lucas shapes up to incumbent backs or how a Hockings or Staniforth compare to local piggies.

Haven’t seen much of Lucas but from what I have seen he plays more 10 than 15 over in Japan.

Maddocks was in fantastic form in France when I was paying more attention a month or two ago. Has thickened up a bit and does really well in the wider channels facilitating space for the blokes outside him. If he was playing like that but in Aus I reckon he would be close to first cab off the rank. Like you would be interested to know if he’s still in that vein of for.

I’m admittedly biased but Carter and Hunter have a really good combination stemming from club footy that I think counts heavily in their favour to be selected at 10/12. I don’t go all in on the Darwin stuff like some but a backline of McDermott, Gordon, Petaia, Paisami, Ikitau, Daugunu and Campbell has TWI in spades. Not saying it’s the best backline but food for thought.

And he was fantastic in those two or so games. He also played some really good footy last year but this is besides the point as swap Hooper in for him and you’ve still got two very even teams whereas historically when we’ve played/postulated a possibles vs probables there is usually a disparity somewhere.

Mate I’m a Qlder 😂

He’s been out of the game for a few years, not a decade like Vunivalu and he also isn’t trying to protect a bung hammy. I think you’re over-selling how difficult it will be for him to get those instincts back, particularly after a full pre season or a Spring Tour as a development player.

Of course we don’t know how he will go but you can make an educated guess from the ability he is showing in the other code. I haven’t seen anything from the Tahs wingers this year that says a base line Sua’ali’i won’t be better than them. That line of thinking isn’t crap or just a mungo based selection. It is the reality of the Tahs situation now that Nawaqanitawase and Wilson are gone, Reilly is still unsigned and Karawalevu is still raw. Pietsch is a serious goer but sometimes still looks like a flanker pretending to be a wing.

If it makes you feel any better the Tahs are bringing through some exciting union “developed” talent in the back 3 in Saunders, Tonga and Jacques so you might not have as much to moan about in a few years.

This year feels like the first one in a long time where you could do a possibles vs probables and it feel like two even teams facing off. Particularly in the forwards:

1. Slipper
2. Faessler
3. AAA
4. Smith
5. Swain
6. Hanigan
7. Tizzano
8. Valetini
16. Pollard
17. Gibbon
18. Talakai
19. Frost
20. Leota

vs

1. Kailea
2. Uelese
3. Tupou
4. Holloway
5. LSL
6. Wright
7. McReight
8. Wilson
16. ?
17. Hodgman
18. Nongorr
19. Williams
20. Cale

might answer a few questions and that’s with Wallabies like Rodda, Hooper, Swinton etc. missing out (not saying they should miss out either I just typed whichever players came to mind first above). You’ve also got players like Uru and Wilkin who are not far off the pace.

Definitely have better depth than in years gone by but maybe that is tempered by less individuals putting their hand up across a whole season?

I’d be picking Hanigan ahead of Swinton if he returns from injury to his form from earlier in the year. More complete game than Swinton.

Campbell is starting to play some better footy and it’s the sort of footy he was playing when Rennie picked him, but I would be hesitant to go back him as a fullback at international level because he is at his best when he gets through gaps or traffic untouched and there is a lot more space at Super then there is in the international arena to do that. I don’t think you are afforded as many counter attacking opportunities either which is a big part of his game.

Kellaway and Wright seem more robust in contact while still being good at poking their nose through/getting an arm free or breaking the line. I’d feel better about Campbell if we were picking say Petaia and Koroibete on the wing but if Kellaway or Toole is on one I’m less bullish about him there.

You’re right though in that it’s never been articulated why Campbell isn’t considered when you compare it to say Wilso whose reasons for not being selected were often publicised. I don’t think it’s size but yeh wouldn’t be surprised if it’s because he can’t play big when needed like say a Kolbe can.

You’re right he should start in Shute Shield and work his way into the team because there’s so many people playing the house down in front of him…

You can rightly think think his deal was a bad one given the financial state of the code and the ramifications it has likely had on other contact negotiations, but you’ve got rocks in your head if you can’t see how a player of his ability won’t be a value add to the team as it is currently.

It must be exhausting lugging that giant salt shaker around all the time…

Like Christy I’ve had a suspicion that Nella will end up at the Tahs if the Rebels fold and wouldn’t be surprised if Uelese has become a key retention target with the form he has displayed this year. The Tahs is the only logical place for Uelese and while the Force would make sense for Nella as well, I can see RA wanting him under their supervision.

If they can get the injury monkey off their back:

1. Bell
2. Uelese
3. Tupou
4. Holloway
5. Amatosero
6. Hanigan (hopefully)
7. Gamble
8. Gleeson
9. Wilson
10. Gordon
11. Sua’ali’i
12. Foketi
13. Walton
14. Kellaway
15. Jorgensen

is a team that could really give the comp a shake. Won’t matter who they have though if they can’t bring in someone to formulate an attacking structure that actually creates space and doesn’t solely rely on individual brilliance.

As much as I love my Reds and Wests, Zaccy has shown in very limited minutes that consistent game time should see him come into the Wallaby conversation and the re-signing of Hunter, the improvement in Flook and the upside in Annan/Goldsborough might make it difficult for Zaccy to get those minutes at the Reds.

The Brumbies might be the place for him given Tua’s ineligibility. Centralisation get to work!