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Roberto Bettega

Roar Rookie

Joined February 2011

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The value of the license is not dependent on the existence of fans.
It’s value likes in the fact that it’s a closed league and normal clubs are barred from playing in it.
For example, in the last round of expansion, prospective bidders were bidding up to $20 million for a license, but they all had precisely zero fans.
So clearly the number of fans a club has does not overly affect the value of the license.
The license itself is valuable in its own right, and if a global brand like Man Utd wants that license, none of us should be surprised that they would prefer to be located in what they would view as being global city rather than some backwater.
Now you’re right that the owners will have a say in approving the sale.
It’s equally true that they are all cognisant of this key point: they all want to be sure that when their time comes to cash in, no one will stop them.
Always trust self-interest, at least you know it’s trying.

Mariners hit back at Manchester United takeover rumours

Yes.
Last I heard that prospective buyer pulled out because of COVID, but they will find another billionaire to cough up the money.

Manchester United’s Mariners plans make no sense

That’s a fair question.
At a guess, the owners would prefer to retain a presence in Newcastle (don’t forget that the license at the moment is effectively owned by 3 or 4 other club owners, some of whom have picked the eyes out of the Jets squad).
As for the Mariners, well, as you say, they still have an owner, and it’s the owner wanting to sell (presumably at a profit). He also owns the land where the COE is located, he can actually sell that separately, or continue to hold on to it as an investment.
It’s not for nothing that recently we’ve seen property developers keen on landing A-League licenses, and in the case of WU, their anonymous owners hit the jackpot.
Who ever he sells to, the sale needs to be ratified by the other owners (not sure if that means all or just a majority). Also, not sure how much of a say the FFA has now.
All in all, it always pays to back self-interest…at least you know it’s trying.

Manchester United’s Mariners plans make no sense

Franko
Mooy and Arzani across 6 or 7 years, and probably just enough to pay the bills for the whole of that period.
In the meantime, the value of the license is worth more today than what they paid for it.
So that’s the key point, if you can break even on year to year costs, and own a license which continues to increase in value, well of course these sports businesses will express interest
in the A-League.
As long as we all understand where they are coming from – don’t expect them to invest huge amounts of money and make huge losses – that will not be happening!
Also, it follows that these licenses only hold value for as long as it’s a closed league, which is why I say repeatedly with absolute confidence that we will not be seeing any P&R for many, many years, if ever.

Manchester United’s Mariners plans make no sense

Longer term, I can see a few clubs returning to 10,000+ averages, and a few others knocking around the 10k figure on a regular basis, but the rest, about half the clubs, will perpetually be below that 10k marker, some much, much lower.
That’s why I said that we were unlikely to ever see 10,000+ attendance averages across a whole season ever again.
Of course, individual clubs will fluctuate greatly depending on their onfield fortunes.
As you know from your lengthy experience, like death and taxes, we can state with absolute confidence that at any point in time, half the clubs will be in the top half of the table, and the other half will be in the bottom half of the table.
That equation will never change.

Despite its clear quality, the A-League is being swamped by revitalised winter codes

The thing is, to buy an A-League license is petty cash for Man Utd, and that in itself has value because the league is a closed league and it’s likely to remain that for a very long time to come.

So the license itself has value.

Forget everything else, identity, the fans on the Central Coast, or whatever else you think might be important, it’s the license that is the valuable bit.

Sure, thereafter, they only need to find one young talent every 2 or 3 years to make the cost of running a smallish club break even. It’s nonsense to think they are best equipped to achieve that by remaining in Gosford.

Manchester United’s Mariners plans make no sense

As Brainstrust says below, part of the reason for the owners wanting to break away was to have greater freedom in being able to sell their license anytime to whoever they want.

The thing they own with the most value is the license to play in a closed league.

Man Utd would not want to alienate their 10,000 fans on the Central Coast?

Once they own the license, as if they would be worried about that. The actual license is the valauable bit, whether it comes with fans or not is neither here or there.

Mariners hit back at Manchester United takeover rumours

The CEO might view it as pure speculation, but to be honest, the buyers wouldn’t be talking to him about buying the club.
He might know who is talking to the owner, but then again, he may not know.

Mariners hit back at Manchester United takeover rumours

At the moment, I would be viewing 7,700 as a very good attendance in the A-League.

We need to bear in mind that attendances had been declining for 5 years before COVID hit, so there should be no surprise that there has been a further drop off.

On top of that, we have 2 new clubs trying to establish themselves under difficult circumstances – even in the very best case scenarios they were going to cause a further drop in average attendances.

We might have another season of this before we see it improving.

We will see it improve, but we probably have to accept that we may never again see a season which manages an average attendance across the whole season above 10k.

Despite its clear quality, the A-League is being swamped by revitalised winter codes

I reckon the “don’t want to go out factor” might still be affecting all sports.
Afterall, at the moment, who’s really that keen to mill around with hundreds or even thousands of people, even at the entrance gates just to get in.

This season has made me fall in love with the A-League all over again

VAR comes to the rescue as far as the Nix go, and rightly so too.
A reminder that the VAR discussion is a complicated one.
While linesmen remain as hopeless as they often are, there is an argument for putting greater reliance on VAR.

Anyway, the big discussion point of the weekend is the W-League grand final. No, I’m not talking about the fact that the game went to ET, and that the Victory scored a dramatic winner right on the 120th minute of the game.

I’m talking about the absolutely minimal coverage the game got.
The Roar didn’t bother putting up a page for it.
Waking up to Radio National this morning, their regular 7:45 sports update did not even give it a mention! (but covered the womens AFL extensively)

This season has made me fall in love with the A-League all over again

On the subject of women’s football, very disappointing that the Roar site did not see it fit to cover the W-League grand final which was held today and which went to ET in a very exciting climax to the season.

Matildas stumble to 5-2 loss in first pre-Olympics hit out

I can recall that back in the 2000 Olympics, Germany was a 3 goal better team than the Matildas.

I expect that gap has probably been only marginally closed over the last 20 years or so.

Currently our NT players are a bit spread out and with COVID it probably makes it very difficult for the coach to bring the squad together.

Matildas stumble to 5-2 loss in first pre-Olympics hit out

You’re probably right.
I’d be guessing that their 1 billion loss is off a far greater revenue base.

Is what's perfect getting in the way of what's good for football?

Definitely something that needs to be worked out, and I’d say there are a few options available.
Anyway, at the moment it’s all academic because it still looks years away.

Is what's perfect getting in the way of what's good for football?

Actually, the billionaire who was going to pay $325 million for a license has already pulled out, but it’s likely they’ll find another billionaire to take his place:
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/apr/05/mls-cost-for-new-team-soccer-us

The MLS lost a billion dollars in 2020.

Is what's perfect getting in the way of what's good for football?

If that’s the case, either:
1. Adelaide never gets a team in the NSD, or
2. one makes it, lasts a season or two and then gets relegated back to wherever it came from.

Is what's perfect getting in the way of what's good for football?

I’m guessing he means enough revenue to sustain a professional league.
Enough revenue to allow a small increase in current player salary levels.
Enough revenue to ensure that on average club owners don’t have to contribute more than $1 million per season to break even, which is a reasonable goal I would have thought (the average across the life of the league has been around the $2 million mark).

Is what's perfect getting in the way of what's good for football?

If there was to be a 2nd division, and if there was to be an Adelaide team in it, I don’t think they would be pursuing Adelaide United supporters to form their fan base.

Is what's perfect getting in the way of what's good for football?

This system works well for those who joined early (a bit like Amway).
More and more share in the sale proceeds of the license, the one who buys the last one is in a fair bit of strife.
A bit like a Ponzi scheme.

Is what's perfect getting in the way of what's good for football?

I understand that re-set of the discussion, I’m not even sure that does justice to this topic.
Personally, talking about the perfect destination is a waste of time for a different reason: the die has already been cast, was cast a long time ago, there is no re-set, no starting over, no getting it right from now on.
The minute we accepted that this had to be a licensing/franchise system, then that’s what we have, that’s what it will remain.
In an environment where the owners have collectively spent at least $300 million since inception, the one thing they are not going to get rid of is the ability to generate dollars by selling licenses (and often re-selling them).
That’s there for a long time to come.
We are stuck with it. There will be no movement to some perfect future state, we have what we have.
It’s actually a pointless discussion.
Follow what we have…or not…but don’t start thinking it’s about to evolve into something different.

Is what's perfect getting in the way of what's good for football?

I was heartened by the attendance of a mid-week game last night, some 9,500.
The interest is definitely there, we just need to keep plugging away.
Agree P&R is light years away, we may not see it in our lifetime.

Is what's perfect getting in the way of what's good for football?

You’ve watched 3 games of AFL!
In the eyes of us football fans, that makes you a dyed in the wool AFL fan!

The future of Australian football: How to rebuild interest in the beautiful game

Ad-O
The bulk of that 2006 squad played senior football in the NSL before going to Europe.

The future of Australian football: How to rebuild interest in the beautiful game

MC and AU each have a game in hand on the Mariners.
Outside the 6, both the Roar and Glory have 2 games in hand on the Wanderers, who are 5th, and only 6 points ahead.
Macarthur remains well placed to make a run on the Premiership – can they emulate what the Wanderers did and win the Premiership in their very first season?

Is the A-League's final top six already set?