Roar Rookie
Joined May 2011
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[caption id="attachment_25106" caption="All Blacks five eighth Dan Carter lines up a kick at the goal during the Rugby Union Bledisloe Cup Australia v New…
[caption id="attachment_43273" caption="The Waratah\'s Lachie Turner is tackled by the Rebel\'s Greg Somerville during their Super Rugby match at the SFS, Sydney, April 30,…
The South Africans are sweating on this match. And so they should be. The Waratahs can clinch a top six spot and only have…
We’re down to the wire in the inaugural Super Rugby, and with semi-final spots up for grabs or possibly pride in the office tipping…
[caption id="attachment_30171" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Queensland Reds players Quade Cooper (l) and Peter Hynes (r). AAP Image/Dave Hunt"][/caption] When two prize fighting heavyweights are squaring…
Scrum injuries are no longer the issue where the serious spinal injuries are happening. In NZ they have a complusory safety course that all coaches do (even Henry, Smith and Hansen do it) and the parents are happily surprised that it occurs. NZ have the lowest spinal injury rate from scrum in the world, even in total numbers since the course came in about 2001. Touch wood so I don’t jinx that stat!
Why more understanding of scrums is needed
There were only 6 scrum resets by my count. At an average of 35 seconds, that is only 3 and a half or so minutes lost. Biggest consumer of time in refs time is kicks at goal. By the time the tee arrives, the kicker has a minute to get his kick in, then 30 seconds to get back for the kick off.
Also you have to factor in that the game can go over 40 minutes a half as play continues until the hooter is gone and there is a stoppage, unlike Basketball where it is when the hooter has sounded.
Didn’t mean to start a debate so hopefully that will provide more complete information
Some observations after the Wallabies win
Not sure about the fitness aspect either. The game wasn’t played at a fast pace. The ball was in play/contestable for 34:56 minutes in the whole game. That’s about average. The Bok played a quick recycle plan with their 102 rucks/mauls for 57% possession and the Wallabies only 60 ruck/mauls suggesting the Wallabies played it at their pace that was not a fast one.
The ball was in play/contestable 6 seconds less in the second half. If the oppostion was the All Blacks, the 2nd half would the ball would have been in play/contestable for around 20 minutes. So maybe they were fit enough for the game plan?
Some observations after the Wallabies win
Call me a nomad or call me lots of other things, if someone wants an article and I can do it justice, then they get it. However I don’t want to use this for as a promo so think where else would there be a place that wanted two Oz kickers and isn’t commerical with real good blokes.
Aaron Cruden a better kicker than Dan Carter?
Missed tackles for the Reds will be of concern heading into the final. The Reds missed 35 tackles or on average 1 in every 4 attempts. The Blues missed 21 tackles also 1 in every 4 attempts.
The Reds turned little possession into opportunities into points. The Reds had 35% possession in the 1st half and 40% for the entire game.
In the 2nd half the Reds spent 29% in the Blues 22. The Blues spent 9% of the 2nd half inside the Red 22.
21 penalties in the game. The Reds conceded 11, but 9 of these were in the 2nd half.
Reds vs Blues: Super semis live scores and Reds blog
Goal kickers: Reds Cooper 70% (68 from 97) Harris 100% (8/8). Blues McAlister 70% (48 from 69); Munro 78% (18/23). #super15 #superrugby #REDvBLU
Drop kick attempts: Reds Cooper 3 from 6, Genia 0 from 2. Blues McAlister 1 from 1 Brett 0 from 1 #REDvBLU
Reds on average (#super15 rank 1=most/highest) per game: 9.6 pens (7); 4.8 pens at ruck (14); 11 missed tackles (15) #REDvBLU
Blues on average (#super15 rank 1=most/highest) per game: 8.6 pens (14); 5.6 pens at ruck (9); 14.2 missed tackles (5) #REDvBLU
Reds v Blues Ref stats: Kaplan forced to award, per game average 18.5 pens (11.3 at ruck) 4.5 scrum resets & 4.5 scrum infringes Reds Blues #REDvBLU
Reds v Blues Ref stats: Kaplan 4 (1=most/highest) from 17 refs to award scrum pens, 11th for pens, F/K and ruck pens #REDvBLU
Reds vs Blues: Super semis live scores and Reds blog
Clearly I need to widen my databases because mine can’t answer this.
I did check on a couple of other sites and this is where differences start showing. superrugby.co.nz has these guys with 11 linebreaks each yet rugbyheaven.com.au doesn’t have them with this many. So there are problems when you try and compare this type of detail, so really stick to things that are more team related with a couple of indivdual stats such as goal kicking. Sorry, but only so many hours in the day.
Can tell you am working on a pressure and momentum scale that is in the middle of testing and programme starts getting excited when the conditions are right for defense to be broken or points to be scored. Haven’t quite got it to the stage when we fully understand, read this to mean its now smarter than its makers and that a little scary!!!
Aaron Cruden a better kicker than Dan Carter?
I wish I could have slapped a table in the article so that it hides even less, it would also add to the forum discussion. Just happen that it was recieved as well as it was.
Aaron Cruden a better kicker than Dan Carter?
The challage is writing it up and hitting the word limit.
Aaron Cruden a better kicker than Dan Carter?
Postnote. Been contacted by a outlet to do a piece on Carter v Steyn v JOC v Cooper. Just about halfway through that.
Aaron Cruden a better kicker than Dan Carter?
LOL I have a pretty good balanced life and this is just like a small hobby. Think of it as a outlet as I have a pretty stressful real job where I am an international expert and this helps me clear my head. Just hope the wife doesn’t read this…;)
Aaron Cruden a better kicker than Dan Carter?
Agree with the faith in the Captain, but this can work against the kicker as the Captain calls for a attempts from a more difficult position. I think JOC this season has had it happen to him on occasion.
Yes it can be adjusted and does for different comps, but for professional players there isn’t too much difference and that the benefit of a huge database of kicks taken you can check for such an effect.
The benefit of Roar is I can post the type of stats pieces here. I had pitched them all to major media and they were interested but passed. The Roar is a great outlet for things that wouldn’t get published by mainstream. Plus who knows after a while and enough people commenting on it the left side might take notice.
Aaron Cruden a better kicker than Dan Carter?
Cheers. Sometime kicker won’t get a choice such as a conversion from the sideline. It does depend on the kicker, the conditions and the ground. Sometimes they have a crack at a distance because they have landed a few already. But I would say that the 65-70% range is the opimium for a establisdhed kicker in the competition. I believe McCaw know where these spots are on the field and seems that he is penalised in spots (last kick v Reds excluded of course) that are out of the optimum for that kicker,
Aaron Cruden a better kicker than Dan Carter?
Too hard for me to do live, but nice challenge. I do know 80% of tries are scored with the first 4 phases and the scrum is the starting point of most of the tries, lineout the second most starting point, its not broken play or from a game of foce back is my point. I’ll have a look aas there are less games this weekend, but more media and people chasing me for data. I’ll post it here rather than do an article???
Do more Super derbies equal more tries?
Cheers. I wish commentators would use them as well. That’s the advantage of the roar. I’ve pitched to main stream media this and one I’ve got one Cruden v Carter using difficulty on place kicks and it was too stats heavy…
Do more Super derbies equal more tries?
I’m pretty sure in one of my articles on the roar I’ve said Lies Darn Lies and statistics. You points are quite correct.
Do more Super derbies equal more tries?
The NZ conference was the only one that had a statistical signficance using 95% CI, but didn’t have the word count to put it in. And cheers for the comments.
Do more Super derbies equal more tries?
Cheers. Wasn’t sure about doing it, but am happy that people wanted it.
Do more Super derbies equal more tries?
Good question and the missed tackle can give this. When I loaded the programme code I forgot to tell it to grab line breaks by stupid error of myself. It not something I can fix but can reset at the start of a competition, so sorry. I do collect line breaks but short of going back and re-doing every game I can’t supply it in the same format. Also line break definitions vary heaps. The one the pro coaches I asked about this use “when the attacker turns the defender’s shoulder” which isn’t what I would have said was a line break, but that why I’m not a coach. But thanks for the comments and the assesments of other comments here 😉
Waratahs vs Brumbies: a tale of the tape
I got a number of emails during the weekend from South Africans wanted to know all the Brumbies and Waratahs stats I had. This is so they could work out what might happen, First time they have asked me for an Australian derby stats. I also supply some for the SA forums and there is some dicussion on it, so I put the by-line in.
Waratahs vs Brumbies: a tale of the tape
Correct, except in the last couple of weeks where they have won they have the same stats profile. Clearly they must be not making the same errors at the same times.
Waratahs vs Brumbies: a tale of the tape
Sometime yes, but I also do probability of success of each kick and it factors in the difficulty. But then againt he can miss some easy ones. His conversions is around 63%
Waratahs vs Brumbies: a tale of the tape
I’ve coded every game and every kick from the hand from the start of the season, for every team. I can break it down by game so I know it’s 38%. Don’t know where you got 20% from, but would be in interested.
Waratahs vs Brumbies: a tale of the tape
The difference is NZ make it an annual requirement, with Under 6 its a bit different, but coachs still have to do it. I think SmartRugby is every 2 years. NZ started that way but not results so when annual. NZ started with RugbySmart and then SmartRugby. RSA recently got the kiwis and Aussies to help and created BokSmart.
The problem is it is a real good news story and as such not news worthy…
Why more understanding of scrums is needed