Numbers Game: Which teams will rise and fall in the AFL in 2019?
Numbers! Football! It’s time for our annual dispassionate look at some of the numbers behind the numbers in the AFL and see whether we can jag a bit of signal amidst the noise.
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Ryan likes his sport played efficiently, effectively and elegantly, like a Nic Naitanui hit out to advantage. Always searching for an interesting angle, Ryan loves nothing more than digging deep into the play and searching for the signal others miss in the noise. You can follow Ryan here (@RyanBuckland7).
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Numbers! Football! It’s time for our annual dispassionate look at some of the numbers behind the numbers in the AFL and see whether we can jag a bit of signal amidst the noise.
Let’s do two sets of rankings for the final BBL column for this year: the finals teams, and four things Cricket Australia should do to fix the Big Bash.
The past 18 months have been challenging for a thinking fan, with the repeated administrative malfeasance of AFL HQ. This year, we cast all of that aside, and go back to what makes Australian rules football the best sport in the world.
With five games to go, this season’s finalists are all but decided. All that’s left to do in these penultimate power rankings is work out who’ll host them.
We can equivocally draw a line under two of the competition’s eight teams with 13 games remaining. With a season-defining week ahead, another team or two could find themselves out of it sooner than later.
The BBL took the back seat to international cricket this week, and perhaps fortunately so given the standard of play once again failed to reach any great heights.
The top two is unchanged, and we’ve still got no idea what’s happening in between. Halfway – yes, halfway – through this season’s Big Bash, and it feels like it’s anyone’s tournament.
Ranking the BBL teams is my own personal Bird Box Challenge.
Just four games to go on, but there’s been enough signal amidst the T20 noise to make some subtle changes in this week’s BBL power rankings.
Each team has two games in the books, and there’s been plenty of change in this week’s edition of the Big Bash power rankings.
The best short-form cricket competition in the world is back, figuratively and literally bigger than ever. Each week we’ll be running through the games, power rankings style.
Christmas comes but once a year, and in my very particular case, a day later than usual. It’s time to unwrap the 2019 AFL fixture, and see who got lumped with this year’s coal.
No one has won or lost this year’s trade period, because you can’t be a winner or a loser this far out from the 2019 season. This column doesn’t crown winners and losers, but it does have views on the most important outcomes from this year’s trade period.
Player exchange in the AFL needs an overhaul. The last time the Collective Bargaining Agreement was thrashed out both sides failed the challenge of change. Let’s start the process early this time around.
This season there has been far too much talk about what is wrong with the AFL. Let’s celebrate what’s right by running through the best moments of the season.
Our last two premiers have something in common: they were expected to fall out of contention, but surprised us all and won it all. There’s something else: active off seasons.
From the editors: The West Coast Eagles won the 2018 AFL premiership yesterday – but what if they hadn’t?
New colours, new logo, new stadium. More than that, in 2018 West Coast changed its approach to football, built on its strengths – and now they’re a four-time AFL premier.
Two extraordinary football stories are set to duke it out for the premiership cup. Here’s the Xs and Os that will shape the outcome.
It’s official: we’re living in the post-truth AFL, and nothing makes sense anymore.
Melbourne wouldn’t want to be getting too conservative though, they have given up bursts of goals to the Eagles on a couple of occasions today.
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q4 – 5m – The ball spends some time on the broadcast wing, and the Eagles get a clean look inside 50 on the back of some great work in the clinches. However the entry kick is shanked, and Melbourne exit with ease switching to the outer side. The game certainly looks a bit less skilful to start the last, perhaps the effects of the warm temperature are kicking in.
West Coast: 11.6 (72)
Melbourne: 13.8 (86)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q4 – 3m – Melbourne gets the first of the quarter with some strong pressure locking the ball in from a centre clearance. Jake Melksham continues a very good day for Melbourne’s half forward line, and the Dees are out by 14 points again.
West Coast: 11.6 (72)
Melbourne: 13.8 (86)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Three quarter time – An eight point Melbourne lead at the last change. Still anyone’s game. West Coast will be happy with everything but the scoreline in that quarter.
West Coast: 11.6 (72)
Melbourne: 12.8 (80)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 32m – With a minute to go West Coast strikes back through Dan Venables, after a rare clean centre break. We’re going to head to the three quarter time break with the game well and truly up in the air. The Eagles get a free kick for high contact that should’ve been converted to 50 for a poor return. The siren sounds, and the crowd expresses its feelings in the usual way.
West Coast: 11.6 (72)
Melbourne: 12.8 (80)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 30m – And just like that they get a break with some stellar work from Clayton Oliver at a back 50 stoppage. Mitch Hannan takes a mark out the back and kicks the goal. For all the great play the Eagles had in the first 15 minutes of the quarter, Melbourne has managed to eek it back out to the half time margin (14 points).
West Coast: 10.6 (66)
Melbourne: 12.8 (80)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 28m – West Coast has its press well set and are getting some repeat entries inside 50. But no reward, it’s still eight points.
West Coast: 10.6 (66)
Melbourne: 11.8 (74)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 26m – Melbourne gets the centre break with some great follow up work from Max Gawn, and Charlie Spargo (who has done some great stuff from the half forward line) finds Tom McDonald about 20 metres out. He kicks the goal, and it’s back to eight points.
West Coast: 10.6 (66)
Melbourne: 11.8 (74)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 25m – West Coast has the game on its terms, with the play starting to move further to the outside. Melbourne gets caught on an overlap and Elliot Yeo scores from just inside 50 on the right wing. Back to two points. This is pretty fun.
West Coast: 10.6 (66)
Melbourne: 10.8 (68)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Both sides lining up with a spare man off the back of the square.
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 22m – Melbourne replies instantly. Some fluky bounce of the ball stuff results in a Mitch Hannan mark close to the tip of the goal square. Eight point Melbourne lead.
West Coast: 9.6 (60)
Melbourne: 10.8 (68)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 21m – Two in a minute! This time Mark Hutchings is in the right spot after some heavy play on the front of the West Coast centre square. Two point ball game.
West Coast: 9.6 (60)
Melbourne: 9.8 (62)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 20m – Another West Coast break, this time on the left wing, and Dom Sheed passes the ball to a sprinting Willie Rioli, and it was almost as though he passed it to his feet on purpose! Rioli soccers the ball home like an EPL striker and we’re back to a single digit margin.
West Coast: 7.6 (48)
Melbourne: 9.8 (62)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 19m – West Coast break through the middle of the ground and scrub the ball inside 50. A 2v2 breaks out and Melbourne manages to neutralise the ball. It’s getting tense out there, West Coast starting to press a bit harder as the Dees get a bit more conservative with their ball movement – perhaps a product of the conditions.
West Coast: 7.6 (48)
Melbourne: 9.8 (62)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 15m – Jamie Cripps takes the first shot for goal of anyone for about five minutes but misses left from the right forward pocket. West Coast set up well to intercept the ensuing kick out and we’re back inside West Coast’s 50. Dom Sheed gathers the ground ball and kicks a goal. Suddenly we’re back to 13 points.
West Coast: 7.6 (48)
Melbourne: 9.7 (61)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 13m – The play breaks open a little after Brad Sheppard intercepts on the Melbourne back line. West Coast work the far side boundary but mess up the entry, and the Dees get back inside 50 with some long, cross-ground kicks. However they can’t get a shot off and West Coast has another go at exiting via the boundary. It’s getting a bit more open all of a sudden as Sheppard runs the centre and gets the ball inside 50. It’s all happening all of a sudden! But West Coast can’t get a shot off.
West Coast: 6.5 (41)
Melbourne: 9.7 (61)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 10m – We get what I’d hazard is our first bit of rolling stoppage play in the game on West Coast’s left attacking wing. Players are heading to the bench looking pretty fatigued, you’d have to think that’ll be a factor as the game goes on. We’re mostly one on one around the ground for what it’s worth.
West Coast: 6.5 (41)
Melbourne: 9.7 (61)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 8m – The Eagles get a break from the ensuing centre bounce and Nathan Vardy takes a neat mark on the 50 metre line. His kick travels high and looked to have been touched, but the review confirms it was over the line. A goal for the Eagles and didn’t they need it.
West Coast: 6.4 (40)
Melbourne: 9.7 (61)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 6m – Melbourne looked to have a clean break from the half back line with a disorganised West Coastt back line, but Tom Barrass catches Jake Melksham holding the ball. However the Eagles make a hash of the possession and Melbourne gets a shot at goal through Tom McDonald. He kicks the goal and Melbourne is now up by 27 points. That’s going to be tough to chase down.
West Coast: 5.4 (34)
Melbourne: 9.7 (61)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 4m – The Eagles break out of their back half with a Jeremy McGovern contested mark on the wing. But the entry kick misses the mark and we’ve got a couple of repeat stoppages on West Coast’s left forward wing.
West Coast: 5.4 (34)
Melbourne: 8.7 (55)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q3 – 1m – Melbourne gets a bit of a break in the context of the game, with Jake Melksham kicking a low set shot from just inside 50. Eagles will want to get a bit more from centre bounces in the second half.
West Coast: 5.4 (34)
Melbourne: 8.6 (54)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Half time – We’re back on deck. Jeremy McGovern starting at notional centre half forward as the umpire messes up the centre bounce.
West Coast: 5.4 (34)
Melbourne: 7.6 (48)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Half time – A delicately poised game, and the players on both sides look absolutely stuffed. It’s a 14 point lead to Melbourne. I’ll be back for the second half shortly.
West Coast: 5.4 (34)
Melbourne: 7.6 (48)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q2 – 28m – The Eagles look to have an overlap on the right hand wing but an excellent open field tackle from Neville Jetta on Willie Rioli shuts it down. He follows that up with another excellent one on one spoil and the ball is on the West Coast left forward wing.
West Coast: 5.4 (34)
Melbourne: 7.6 (48)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog
Q4 – 10m – We’ve definitely entered a different phase of play here, with the ball spending time going back and forth around the West Coast forward 50 arc. There’s skill errors and fumbles galore, and all we get out of it is a West Coast behind. On the ensuing kick in another incisive Melbourne kick opens up the fat side of the ground, and Jake Melksham finds Mitch Hannan inside 50. He misses, and we start it all again.
West Coast: 11.7 (73)
Melbourne: 13.9 (87)
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons: AFL live scores, blog