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Joined March 2019
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Shabab Hossain is a football writer with a specific interest in statistics and tactics. He digs deeper than most into the game to find out how and why your favourite team is performing the way they are.
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It’s been a tough couple of years to be a Jets fan. This season started in ominous fashion when their marquee signing, former Ireland…
This season has been poor by Melbourne Victory’s lofty standards. More than two-thirds of the way through the campaign, they sit ninth with only…
In a season where there have been plenty of breakout stars, from the Toure brothers in Adelaide to Jerry Skotadis at Western United, there…
The A-League now has a majority – six of 11 – of teams whose usual formation involves three centre backs and two wing-backs. The…
Over the past few weeks, Brisbane Roar have risen from the foot of the table to a relatively comfortable position as one of the…
The Asian Champions League (ACL) has kicked off this week, Melbourne Victory starting their group stage campaign last night while Sydney FC have a…
It’s hard to talk about football tactics without mentioning formations. Whether your team is playing in a classic 4-4-2, an aggressive 4-2-3-1 or perhaps…
Sydney FC are running away with the league, Perth Glory have bumpy beginnings to continue their ascent from last season, while Melbourne City are…
Ernie Merrick, Marco Kurz and now, after a prolonged period of suffering for the Western Sydney Wanderers, Markus Babbel. In the end, given the…
After only 13 games Melbourne Victory’s board have made the hasty decision to remove Marco Kurz as head coach seemingly due to disappointing results.…
Changes to the Laws of the game in football have always been a decisive factor in how the sport is played at its most…
Adam le Fondre. Kosta Barbarouses. Rhyan Grant. Milos Ninkovic. These are the names that first spring to mind when you think about Sydney FC’s…
The A-League season has been full of surprises, from Wellington Phoenix’s continued rise to the initial hope followed by the familiar disappointment of Western…
From his humble beginnings in South Melbourne to leading Yokahama F Marinos to the Japanese championship, Ange Postecoglou’s football philosophy has captivated players and…
Match result: Western United retain bragging rights as they defeated Melbourne Victory 3-1 courtesy a brace from Besart Berisha, a dagger into his former…
In May Perth Glory were moments away from lifting the A-League trophy when they fell to Sydney FC in penalty kicks. Now, less than…
When James Troisi arrived at Adelaide United, there were mixed reactions about how much of a coup this was for the team. He is…
Match result: Central Coast Mariners kept their first clean sheet in 639 days as they fought to a one-nil victory against Western United at…
Six rounds in and Melbourne City are top of the A-League table, with Jamie Maclaren firing on all cylinders. The team has a visibly…
Match result: The Newcastle Jets will be frustrated after they let go of a one-goal lead against a 10-man Perth Glory as they shared…
xG/xGA is useful because it is a greater predictor than actual goals scored and conceded. Also, xG is not a human, subjected based statistic. It’s calculated based off of thousands of shots to accurately assign values to the probability of a goal being scored. A team that creates better chances will win more often than one that does not. If you win a game because you scored three screamers from outside the box (which is obviously a low chance of going in), it will be harder to replicate in future matches. Another example: If a team misses three open goals, does that mean the opposition defence was good? No, it means they got lucky that they didn’t concede. By that same reasoning, Brisbane have been fortunate that they haven’t conceded as many goals as the stats would have predicted, but they shouldn’t continue to depend on that.
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
They haven’t been organised enough and that’s why they’re fortunate to not have conceded as many goals. Don’t trust the results 😛
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
Sure, people might be saying that then and they’re probably saying it now.
You won’t be hearing that from me, though. The table does lie, even by the end of the season.
I would recommend reading this chapter from Christoph Biermann’s book ‘Football Hackers: The Science and Art of a Data Revolution’, starting from the chapter The Table Does Lie. He will explain it far better than I can: https://books.google.com.au/books?id=uiCIDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=christoph+biermann+football+hackers&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiMira5mN3nAhU0guYKHYRtB8AQ6AEIKTAA#v=onepage&q&f=false
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
Here’s an example of one I did for Roy O’Donovan when he moved to Newcastle Jets https://twitter.com/ShababHossain13/status/1223374329750020096?s=20
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
Kind of. The start of the season they were playing below average but getting really poor results, while now they are playing average and getting really good results.
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
Unfortunately, they’ve moved from a monthly subscription to a yearly subscription, so it is expensive for new users (thankfully I’m still on monthly), but I believe they have a 2 week free trial where you can test it out and see what it’s all about.
Thanks for your support and I’m glad you enjoy it, Redondo.
If you have a Twitter I produce a lot of graphs there for individual players and you can ask me for requests as well because I probably won’t be writing about this again anytime soon.
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
I’m not sure analysing a team through statistics is a “route fraught with danger” by any means. In fact, I believe it would provide a far more accurate reflection than the emotions and cognitive bias that we humans have when watching a game ourselves. Jamie Young has definitely been an outstanding performer for Roar, and I questioned why Crocombe was even selected over him in the first place, but you cannot rely on a keeper to stop every single shot. He might produce a few spectacular saves, but it would be a lot nicer if he didn’t have to make those types of stop, right? Maybe the defence should work on making his life a bit easier is all I’m saying.
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
Very curious about this. What have you seen/read in the years past Fowler’s retirement which has shown him to be a “deep thinker”? Brisbane are not doing anything out of the ordinary under him.
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
Newcastle Jets is a VERY interesting case. Plain xG numbers suggest they are one of the most unluckiest teams EVER in the league. Their xG differential is about 20 goals or something crazy like that. Victory meanwhile will definitely have it tough with all the travelling. I could see Jets getting one up over them.
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
The stats are from a subscription service called Wyscout 👍
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
I agree that Roar’s desperation has saved a few goals. In the first few games, WSW’s desperation in defence also saved a few goals to keep that win streak alive. It’s more effective to stop the chance being created in the first place rather than lunging to block a shot once it’s there, because sooner or later, they will go in.
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
Thanks for the congratulations Waz. I am not downplaying the mental aspects such as confidence and momentum, which do play a part. Very interesting to hear you say that apparently Roy’s departure was in part due to his numbers, would be curious to know why in my DMs 😛 It doesn’t really matter whether “the team ignores the statistics”, because the statistics will exist either way. They are playing like a top six side, but their recent results aren’t an accurate reflection of the performances. But anyway, it’s good to hear you are enjoying Roar this season, because in the end, that’s what’s most important anyway.
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
I predicted Roar to come third! 😂
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
Thanks Franko — the main point is that Brisbane’s defence has been a bit fortunate in this stretch of form to not have conceded as many goals as they should have. There’s positives in this Roar side, but if they start to concede a few too many goals in the next few weeks, it shouldn’t be unexpected.
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
This column is kind of a pros and cons. Roar have improved since last season, but not so much so that they should have only lost once since the start of the year. The foreign signings do get a lot of crap, and I think for the most part they’ve been pretty good. But the defence has been fortunate to not concede as many goals as they should have in recent weeks, so if Roar’s results do dovetail in the next few weeks, it shouldn’t be a surprise.
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
Thanks Lionheart, think you’re talking about Perth Glory when they were last on the ladder, not Roar, but yes it’s nice that one time a prediction actually works out! As I stated in this piece, Roar are a top 6 side, but perhaps not one that should have only lost once in their past 8.
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve
I agree that they are better technically, not sure I agree with better tactically though. I think their technical skill just makes them very hard to beat no matter the tactics. Robbie Cornthwaite has previously said he’s found Australian teams to be more tactical than the Asian ones from his experience, too. So I think the way to succeed is by making up for the technical disadvantage by tactical prowess for A-League teams. Long term, the goal should be to improve the technical skills of the next generation, of course.
How A-League teams can replicate the Wanderers' ACL success
Thanks Chris, I agree it’s nothing too complex, but sometimes it’s important to get back to the basics, I think a lot of the A-League teams have struggled to do that in recent years. Absolutely agree with your point though that defenders are now reading the game more in possession in case their team lose the ball. Definitely present in the top European divisions, but I’m not sure the Asian teams are as tactically astute, so I think there is still an opportunity to attack on transition.
How A-League teams can replicate the Wanderers' ACL success
Too kind Will, now that I’m an Expert you’ll see my pieces at least every Wednesday on here! Will try to make some more thought provoking and educational stuff for you and let me know if you have any questions too!
The evolution of the A-League's wide men
Thanks Mark. I get the stats from a website called Wyscout which has a (relatively) affordable subscription fee and then I make up the graphs using Microsoft Excel and Datawrapper! Feel free to DM me on Twitter (@ShababHossain13) if you need some more help.
The evolution of the A-League's wide men
Thanks very much Jack, I’m glad to hear you enjoy it! I agree that Adelaide United wingers are probably not completely like the old fashioned wingers, since Halloran and sometimes even Mileusnic do come deep to support build up. I was more focusing on their role in the final third where they definitely look to exploit their pace to get into good areas like ‘traditional’ wingers.
The evolution of the A-League's wide men
80 (now 81) of those are probably mine 😂
Don't be sucked in by recent form, raw Roar still have to improve