The Roar
The Roar

SR1

Roar Pro

Joined May 2019

26k

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Even if they did reset, I think they would have to bring back the old clubs (in the areas you mentioned) as well as add the new teams in the plan because they all have their own personality and connection to their areas that has been gradually grown over many, many years. This plan will mean clubs have to grow their personalities and connections all over again. This is a great plan if the league was to fold however I don’t think everything would be as smooth if completely everything was reset.

What would the NRL look like if we hit the reset button?

Nice, interesting take on pre-season predictions.

Expert ladder predictions are offensive

It’s probability fundamentals I’m talking here, so it should make perfect sense. But maybe I’m just not phrasing it correctly for everyone to understand. It doesn’t really matter anymore anyway. Sorry for the fuss over the past few days. It’s been fun arguing with you. Maybe we’ll unexpectedly bump into each other some day.

Crowd catches are a disaster waiting to happen

Yes, I understand this. I do agree with it. All my argument was based upon was your reasoning for why we should be more careful with wayward boundaries. You were saying that the more something doesn’t happen, the more likely the event becomes which IS against fundamentals of probability. I mentioned earlier that each boundary was an independent event, which is why I used coins as an example. That’s all I’m saying. I hope we can get over this and be in agreement. I’ve nearly had enough of this but it’s been good talking with you while it’s lasted.

Crowd catches are a disaster waiting to happen

I interpret and analyse statistical data and compile associated reports.

Crowd catches are a disaster waiting to happen

I have studied probability! I work with it all the time. You just must be that type of person that just jumps straight to conclusions without caring of any details or factors involved.

Crowd catches are a disaster waiting to happen

Probability, the chance, the odds – it doesn’t matter which, is directly linked to this topic of whether protective measures should be installed to help this issue. These decision-making for these measures would have considered whether it is in fact needed by looking at the chances and statistics. So by writing about Factual statistical probability, I am thinking in a realistic sense to the situation in question. All my evidence has already been said so there’s no need for additional information from research.

Crowd catches are a disaster waiting to happen

If you read what I typed below, that ‘no hit in the future’ logic is purely statistical while also displaying that maybe there shouldn’t be too much concern about the issue at this time. Statistically, it would never happen, but in real life it may happen occasionally though nothing yet. I’m just saying that the likelihood isn’t increasing because it hasn’t happened yet. That is true regardless if you are talking statistically or in a real life situation. Hope you understand.

Crowd catches are a disaster waiting to happen

No, no. As mentioned directly below, Nothing gets more and more likely just because it hasn’t happened yet. That is a fundamental of chance, odds and likelihood here which is what this whole article is about. In your example, for each of the 10000 times you threw the dart, you would have an equal chance of hitting the bulls-eye because throwing a dart for the first time and throwing a dart for the ten-thousandth time is the same in terms of probability. All that’s changed is the number – nothing else. I can understand how you think this because it is a very common mistake. But this logic of the chance increasing as you miss more times can only be correctly applied if it is certain to happen in the future, which it isn’t in this case. I’m just trying to help you out here, no hard feelings please.

Crowd catches are a disaster waiting to happen

“as near misses increase in number, the likelihood of a hit increases. If you disagree with that, you’re disagreeing with risk analysis, theory and logic”
Look, I can understand where you’re coming from with possible injuries but your justification here is totally out. This isn’t correct use of logic. Read my other comment for more.

Crowd catches are a disaster waiting to happen

That’s not the point. The point is for whichever flip it is, the odds will always be the same.

Crowd catches are a disaster waiting to happen

You really need to learn about chance. Nothing gets more and more likely just because it hasn’t happened yet. It’s like if I flipped a coin 10 times and got heads for the first nine times. It doesn’t suddenly mean that I am very very likely to get tails; there is still a half-half chance of getting either heads or tails on the tenth toss. The Chance, or risk in this scenario doesn’t change as the events aren’t all directly connected; theyre independent events (results dont depend at all on other results). And statistically, right now, with no injuries, there shouldn’t be any in the future either, not to say that there can’t but statistically speaking. So, to use the logic above isn’t technically valid.

Crowd catches are a disaster waiting to happen

Wow this is the most views I’ve ever seen an article have on The Roar. Good Job!

If AFL clubs were NBA franchises

I’m not sure exactly how this would work; the League always wants only one game played at a time. Maybe a bit later for perth but other than that, I can see that working in sports here.

What needs to change in the NRL's next TV deal

…though they wouldn’t in this deal as I thought being able to select matches would be seen as more valuable to them than being given the Saturday game for the last five weeks.

What needs to change in the NRL's next TV deal

They already do a similar thing in the Big Bash League with regards to the late Perth timeslots…

What needs to change in the NRL's next TV deal

Fox already promote the game and have a dedicated channel – though it’s only seen by Foxtel and Kayo subscribers. As I said earlier, there is a great opportunity for a FTA broadcaster like the ABC or Network 10 to get the rights and make a big deal of it – dedicated sports channel, have it on advertisements in all periods of the day and attempt to change and rise the standard that Channel 9’s broadcast was. Both broadcasters have had successful broadcasts in the past with Ten having the popular Big Bash League and the ABC hosting football events such as the Premier League and the world cup. There is lots of potential there for these two.

What needs to change in the NRL's next TV deal

They do in the last five weeks of the regular season; the 7:35 game.

What needs to change in the NRL's next TV deal

I reckon Fox will get the rights as no one can compete with them in terms of money on offer in combination with FTA broadcaster – Network 10 or ABC is what I think.

What needs to change in the NRL's next TV deal

Well they (ch 9) have recently got streaming rights for the games they show but I only watch that broadcast if I have to with its significantly lower standard in comparison to that of Fox League’s broadcast.

What needs to change in the NRL's next TV deal

If say ABC earned the rights for 2023, they could create a dedicated sports channel consisting of Rugby League and other sports such as the A-League on the channel. As they also own a 24 hour news channel, the rugby league taking news’ timeslot on the channel wouldn’t be such an issue as the viewer could tune in at any time.

What needs to change in the NRL's next TV deal

I’m pretty sure that the Premier League control their international feed for most countries and that’s been pretty successful.

What needs to change in the NRL's next TV deal

Yes I considered this when coming up with this. For the FTA broadcaster, even though they’ve lost Thursday night games get the 17 free selections which would have been a huge bonus for channel 9 this year if you think about it. I tried to limit this number to not disadvantage Fox overly but I thought that they still are the only channel who is guaranteed to haves every game on Saturday and Sunday under this system – no other party except for them can advertise that.

What needs to change in the NRL's next TV deal

This would be great for the current system, though football-like transfer windows may be introduced relatively soon to the league. This would allow for the disgruntled players to express desire to leave as well as clubs being able to lock up their players on longer contracts for as long as they aren’t pursued on the market. I wouldn’t mind either of the ideas – transfer windows or a one season contract limit though it’s a good discussion point.

One rule to bind them

Well the Kayo broadcast is the Fox broadcast….
There’s no way Fox would produce a game without letting their original subscribers on Foxtel view the game.

What should the next NRL TV deal look like?