DAY 2 UPDATE

ok here we go .. teeing off in 10 minutes to complete round 1. …. what to add? didn’t finish as predicted which messes things up … but the new news is the bad weather is pretty much done and they reckon the Thursday arvo field will of course be all done with both their rounds today (with the unique situation where the marquee players about to complete their round 1 back 9 will go straight out on that same back 9 again for their round 2 .. nice) … and the Thursday morning players will need to complete their round 2 Saturday morn … then back on track

the real consideration to take in though is that the course will be able to dry out and toughen up gradually each day … the boys have had it too easy .. its been a bit like a “regular” week on Tour throwing darts at the pins and getting away with murder with the lack of roll … but that’s all about to change and the “experienced” Augusta players should rise to the top as the weekend progresses …

sadly cant do any Head to Heads or Daily Pairings today given round 1 still not complete …

but we can shift the portfolio around in the Winners market

1) Tiger … what a legend … as hoped he’s had a cracking start in the morning and come in from $65 in to $23 (he got in to $13 at one stage) … have sold 1/3rd of the position to cover the stake … if the dream continues will sell another 1/3d around $10 and ride the rest as a “free” bet

2) Schauffele and Reed … happy with them … Xander in to $12 and Reed to $32 .. will just sit with those for the moment believe they can keep going

3) Cantlay … has leaked a little to $34 but in good shape at -2 with the back 9 to come and looks laser focused to me (geez he’s a misery guts though isn’t he ?) … I’ve added 33% to him and will take that off around $20s if he improves …

4) Koepka … oh dear he’s in all sorts … well more just nothing flassh really just not been on it .. nothing “awful” … 1 three put and one missed up and down = 2 bogeys = 2 over … but he’s got the back 9 to come hopefully he’ll kick in a birdie or two on those two par 5s .. then of course straight into round 2 …. i’ve doubled up at $75 and if he gets back in the mix all of that will come off around his start price so 20 ish … i think he’ll just keep improving over the 4 days and if so could easily be top 10 and maybe have a run Sunday … or if he stays at this pace all very flat then hes in danger miss the cut i’m toast …. so you have to be comfortable to lose what you put on him … another way to play it if not on Betfair is to ratio your money over 3 bets top5, top10 and top 20 ..

5) JT … laid the bejesus out of him at $6.80 … we are only 10 holes in here ! so much can happen .. so many good players around him .. he’s holed a couple of good putts that’s all … they’re pricing in that he adds a couple birds on the back 9 if so I might have to be patient but i’m not seeing him run away with it and i’m confident ill be able to cover the risk with half the stake at $12-14 at some point

Bryson … what do we do with him? he’s out to $17 … i’m agonizing whether i should put a saver on him or not … any advice ? he just keeps acting like a pork chop sometimes i cant think he’s got the right attitude to win a green jacket just yet ?

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thanks for the compliment .. seems Adam is messing up our plans for the moment … still the back 9 to go … if you like the trade and it loses consider go again for Day 2 its amazing how often it mean reverses .. and often the bookie offers a better price having shot the worse score day 1 … meanwhile i’ve doubled up on my Smith Top Aussie bet at $7.50 with Sportsbet .. long way to go not even finished round 1 ! good luck

Big Willie i like your crystal ball … i see it exactly the same way indeed its pretty much following the bookie prices except they have Roosters as overall favourites ($3) as opposed to Storm ($4) but i agree have this sneaky feeling the Storm will “do it for Cam” … the one i cant pick is how they go next week .. the LOSER of that Roosters Storm match definitely has a far tougher run not so much because of the extra match the following week but because they would have to do the Panthers in the Prelim then back up against who they lose to next week .. geez that would be earning it the hard way … potential spanner in the works? i’ve just got this sneaky feeling the Panthers have got a shocker in them .. could even be next week vs the Eels .. but maybe im in denial about the Panthers cos it’ll cost me if they end up Premiers! thank for your analysis enjoyed it

thanks The Barry for the compliment much appreciated .. i run a private blog and decided to see how it goes on the Roar .. and if there is demand will post updates through the Finals Stage .. to be fair i don’t bet individual games in the early rounds as they are so much more random and unreliable in results … indeed i have a rule that i wont trade individual matches in any sport for the first 6 rounds whether it be NRL or EPL or NFL or golf tournaments at the start of the year … over the years that seems to be about the number where the favourites settle and results become more ‘reliable’

i use the term ‘Pretenders” in the sense of the word “aspirants” or new to the party .. but yes there is a bit of tongue in cheek “imposters” implication in there … someone analysed my betting patterns once and described them like trading financial markets .. i tend to go with the flow of proven winners … and that strategy might win say 3 or 4 times out of 5 … but then eventually the new kid on the block gets up and wins .. and i lose that one .. and the trick is to be able to respect the moment and adapt to that new now “proven” winner … maybe its the Panthers will be that team this year .. we will see

hmmm what odds straight sets Eels you ask … here’s a scenario not many are considering … assuming they beat the Tigers this Saturday (who don’t over achieve “doing it for Benji”), then they’ll meet The Panthers next week … they get a genuine shot at going straight to the prelims then Panthers have to do it the hard way … i’m not calling it but worth considering … next week … meanwhile enjoy the next few days !
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what price would you like ? pick it and have as much as you like … or you could back the wooden spoon at $1.48 ?

nice trade even at $4.50 .. if it were me i would take profit on half that so you have a “free bet’ with the balance .. you’d only need to sell less than half to cover your stake … if you’re not on Betfair then consider just back Storm at $2.10 for say 40% of your stake so you cant lose

hi Albo thanks for your thoughts .. no my trades are definitely not a gamble as they are researched and have reasoning … just as yours too isnt a gamble as you have your reasoning also .. there’s a reason they are also at $4 … its would seem i put more weighting on experience come the pressue of the eliminatin stage as opposed to those games during the season .. i dont however put much weighting on events over a decade ago when Panthers last did their thing, more recent years and players still playing who have been there … you might be right that season form prevails this time … do you think they would be underdogs though ? say Panthers beat the Roosters or Storm in the Prelim Final, what price do you reckon they would be in the Grand Final vs the other team ?

sorry for the rambling line .. i have a funny thing about that phrase “gamble responsibly” i hate it every time they say it .. its actually an oxymoron … as “gambling’ is just a game of chance like a toss of a coin or a ball landing on red … whereas “betting” is a calculated risk, a measured risk … hence i prefer to say “only have a bet if you have good reasoning or research, otherwise its just gambling, so don’t do it”

all good points Noosa Duck … i hope youre right Robbos boys do the business tomorrow night .. yep he certainly put a proper team out unlike Storm ort Raiders .. will be interesting to see which strategy works better in hindsight next week …

yes i like your theory … the old “risk a loss by resting key players vs guarantee a win and winning momentum” argument … i’m trying to keep an open mind who i prefer Roosters or Storm until they meet … ill revisit the subject next week assuming they are facing each other .. right now i’m leaning towards the Storm just because they’ll “do it for Cam” … assuming its his last … also they seem to have developed a particularly strong team spirit living in each others pockets up there in their new home … like i say no need to decide yet just back both … nice trade on the Roosters at $7 though you’ll likely have the option to take some profits on that at some stage well less than half that … good luck

Bookies generally prefer long shots to win, if they are ever exposed, which isn’t often, its when the “favourite” comes home same as horse racing .. but for sport by far the majority of turnover goes on the individual games not so much “who wins the Premiership” so yes they clean up .. eventually

DAY 4 CLOSING UPDATE

WOW … a truly significant moment in golf … they’ll all have to rethink this now … rewrite the record books … and rethink golf course choices for Majors … or go back to the boring old equipment debate or like change the Tournament ball to something like 80% distance (can you imagine Jack going off watching the tele today) … the rough concept don’t work no more they need more trees or lakes and running creeks … not one of the so called “experts” I read around the world picked the slowcoach Bryson … or had him even on their radar … the course wasn’t supposed to suit him … the lowest number of fairways hit (23) over 4 days by the Winner in the history of the US Open … and he did it at what we thought was one of the HARDEST of US Open venues … they’ll have to start growing the rough NOW at Torrey Pines for next year!

and what is extra amazing is he was the lowest round of the day … and by a FULL 3 SHOTS! rarely is one of the last Pairing the low round of the day late afternoon with crusty greens … he was the only player under par today -3 as well as in the tournament -6 which he won clean by 6 shots. he beat all the so called “chasers” in the final 3 groups by 5 shots today

but here’s the thing … really it was his putting and short game … he gained 3 strokes to the field putting today (only Lucas Glover was better) … and 5.4 “Around the Green” over the 4 days .. leading that stat with Xander … he had every facet of his game this week .. the only surprise against his recent form was the chipping round the green … seems he fixed that this week… will it work at the tighter lies at The Masters ?

so do Augusta National have time to “Bryson proof” the course by November like they did after 1997 for Tiger?? he’s into $12 already … from $20 last week … and you could have got $60 a few months ago … I’ve been getting on him (and Tiger and Brooks) for months as my regular followers know but its shrapnel really

So hopefully you fared well in the Tournament Head to Heads and Daily Pairings? ouch got Matsuyama wrong last night his turning point was on the 1st hole ! we didn’t even get to see the chip that came back to his feet thanks to Foxtel’s genius willy-nilly timing of getting their add break in (whilst the coverage continues in the States .. can someone please ask them why t f we cant just watch the NBC coverage and their insights and Feherty and player interviews instead of keep chopping around to the B team) …. Hideki then bogie’d the next 3 holes

thankfully Blubber Watson did his job shooting a 79 finishing bogie bogie … thanks mate such a reliable bet that one on the last day you’re a Champion

now then for the Tournament Head to Heads were you with the TAB ? … well learn this lesson … whilst 2 came home (Berger vs Cantlay and Fitzpatrick vs Rose) and sadly Simpson got smashed rather by the slow coach carthorse .. can you believe i actually called it Thursday that if JT and Rory shoot the same score over the 4 days (both ended up + 6) with the TAB you LOSE the bet … whereas at Sportsbet (and most bookies around the world) you get your stake back .. so over there 1 out of the 3 came home and 2 were a half (Scott and Day both +14 would you believe it) … so in the black at least even if you multi’ed them up

Top Aussie was a lottery as predicted … did anyone call Lucas Herbert to be the lowest at +12 ?? deary me

but the one I’m really not happy about is the Winning Score bet -2 or better … everyone did the right thing crashed and burned … except Bryson … -6 … there was no need to win by 6 mate … pity just no pressure on him on the last few holes … amazing …. oh and a special mention to my great mate Harro … he’s the only person in the world I know who picked it … his man Bryson … which cost me a lunch vs JT .. ouch

6 weeks of mediocrity till we get to Augusta for more opportunities afforded us by the added betting options and extra liquidity of the Majors … A$23 million traded on the Winners market on Betfair this week .. that’s way up this year thanks to some of our US friends joining the fray now allowed to bet … it will only go up and up … couple of interesting tournaments in the middle worth trading now they’ve moved the CJ Cup from Korea to Shadow Creek … great course in Vegas .. followed by the Zozo Champs moved from Tokyo to Shadow Creek … Tiger will be defending there so we’ll get a look at him ahead of the Masters he’s been preparing for all year (the safe power cut drive, draw 3 wood for the 13th, his practice greens at home already stimping 15 like he did last year…)

happy trading … and remember .. only have a bet if you think you have good reasoning and research … otherwise its just gambling … so don’t do it

DAY 3 UPDATE

and only 5 questions remain …

1) will the “Smash & Grab” strategy continue to work for one more day for Wolff and / or DeChambeau … 2 of the longest hitters on Tour … or will they get found out like Reed today ? … poor Reedy … bye bye Reedy …

2) will the USGA tighten up the course a bit tomorrow? I think so .. they liked the story of the over par winning score 2006 … and did you notice how the wind died a little at the close combined with the Northerly meaning the normally brutal 16th 17th and 18th were gettable … tomorrow expect pins to be tucked and greens to be dried out with the sub air system … and scores to be higher … which gives the chasers more of a chance

3) will they bring in fake crowd noise like in the footy? picture big speakers all around the course how good would that be ? otherwise if Wolff becomes the youngest player to win a Major since Tiger 1997, and the youngest to win The US Open since Bobby Jones 1923 which combined with (where is he now?) Morikawa’s win in also only his 2nd Major a month ago, people are going to question their validity and how much easier it was without the pressure of the crowds … the serious question being .. is there less pressure tomorrow than normal ?

4) when the f will the USGA grow a pair and penalise that carthorse Bryson for ludicrous slow play … “they’ve been threatened to be put on the clock” they said … 3 times … he took 2 mins 30 for that putt on 17 … then over 3 mins over the approach shot to 18 … tragically missing that 5 footer for par cos he rushed it (only 1 minute 30) … European Tour guidelines are 45 seconds from when your opponent strikes his shot or putt … it might just do Wolff’s head in tomorrow

5) beware fatigue today … some of those top players who have been right in the mix lately banking millions like DJ, Rahm, JT, might just get tired today given they cant win they just want to get out of there .. its been a long 6 months squeezed into 3 playing more tournaments in a row than ever before and in partic the mental exhaustion of being in contention so many times .. they have a month off before readying for Augusta in 7 weeks time … avoid the top players in Head to Heads they are unreliable today

THE WINNERS MARKET

there are only 7 players can win it now .. no-one below Rory on +1 can win … so lets assess each one

-5 $2.80 Wolff … inconsistent over the 3 days is why we missed him … 66-74-65 and tomorrow I’m calling more like 74 … minimum … maybe worse .. its well published he hit only 2 fairways today but still made 13 greens in reg … wow .. he is 12 fairways total for 3 days which is 58th in the field .. wow .. 2 things have saved him a) as the commentators rightly pointed out he has a steeper descent into the ball which assists out of this rough b) his putting has been awesome … 26 putts today .. on those crusty things ! only Schauffele and Oosty have better “strokes gained to the field” putting stats .. but can he keep hitting those unbelievable irons from the rough onto the greens? will the lies continue to be so kind? and if he gets edgy will the putting stats continue or fold like Reedy today? his first 5 holes are critical .. over the 3 days he went -1, +4, -2 … if he starts understandably nervous and starts like DAY 2 the lead could be gone by the 6th and question is whether ha can recover … then this thing is wide open

-3 $3.50 DeChambeau … did you know he was 3 back of the leader at The Rocket Mortgage just over 2 months ago and overhauled the leader to win by 3? know who the overnight leader was who choked … you wouldn’t believe it … Matt Wolff .. I cant believe the press isn’t all over that … Bryson’s stats though a different story to the leader … yes same same smash and grab tactic and he also only hit 3 fairways today but whilst irons to the green saved Wolff (so far) its the chipping around the greens saved Bryson .. wow he’s been so weak in this area this year … you saw all the up and downs today .. I feel like its a toss of a coin he gets away with it one more day or goes to water like Reed…. but why is it you just don’t feel like putting your money on him ? if he hits 9 fairways tomorrow he wins .. if he goes edgy he shoots 72 or worse easy

-1 $13 Oosty … sorry but its not him … I want to be on him as he’s the only previous Major winner in the last 3 pairings … but does that count so much without the crowds anyway? more importantly its only his putting got him there … 5.4 strokes gained on the field ! 2.6 just today … thick rough not his strength he cant go forward from here I’ll pass

E $16 Matsuyama … yep def main contender to hold in there if the top 2 falter .. he’s the best ball striker so far this week (with Rory) 24 Fairways .. but his putting is the worst by far of the top 10 GIVING UP -0.8 shots to the field … he’s the new Simpson … he’ll likely just hang around , half a chance to get under par and possibility he gets the putter going … but then should he hit the lead he wobbles too … his best hope is doing an Ogilvy

E $12 Schauffele … worried about him … its a miracle he’s here really given his ball striking .. its the putting has kept him in it .. testament to the grinder that he is and why we were on him from Thursday … haven’t given up on him of course but he’ll need to strike the ball a lot better tomorrow if he’s to get under par hopefully he found something on the range in the dark … most of his wins have been coming from behind so this is how he likes it

E $27 English … hmmm under the radar … he’s been consistent all year its not surprising he’s here really with strong all round stats .. he came 2nd a few weeks ago Northern Trust so he has form not denying that .. but that’s the point he came SECOND .. he’s the perennial make a string of cuts and the occasional top 5 bank the cheque guy .. he hasn’t won since the OHL Makayoba who cares in 2016 … he’ll just miss

+1 $17 Rory … blo*dy hell here we are again what do we do with Rory ?? .. if there’s one guy can go play laisser-faire its him .. and he has the ball striking stats too 24 fairways and 36 greens better than anyone above him … he was just unlucky day 2 with approach shots … but i worry about his frame of mind .. in particular if he gets in the lead its been a long time since he tasted it and all year that’s when the putter lets him down … as per my Betting Preview on Thursday ill just have to leave him alone cant back him cant sell him

STRATEGY

sadly experience tells me both players wont falter, one usually hangs in there … I just don’t know which one they both look unreliable to me … but my head says don’t sell them … if Bryson does the job I’m already exposed but I can afford it from the head to heads cash but i wont add any risk … and if they both falter I’m happy with my 2 horses in play Schauffele from Thursday and Matsuyama added yesterday as per the DAY 2 update

if you have no exposure pick one you like whether Matsuyama or Schauffele or Rory for a bit of fun at good prices … which you could possibly lay some in running if the lead closes

DAY 4 PAIRING BETS

2 main ones and 2 little ones for fun today

1) $1.85 Matsuyama vs Oosty … Hideki ball striking more reliable as above and i love the little bonus thing that he’s a shot behind its uncanny how often they end up being square meaning we win the bet as shoots 1 less on the day

2) $2.00 Todd on Watson … partly because Todd is the most boring player in the world .. which is a good thing here has hit 30 fairways in 3 days ! .. meanwhile Blubber Watson will get bored at some point and just want to get home to see if there’s anything of his property left thanks to Hurricane Sally

3) $3.50 Bezuidenhaut vs Rahm … just a little one for fun really … its not like me to be backing a $3.50 outsider … but just in case the spoilt Spanish schoolboy has one of his hissy fits its so much fun to make money watching him do it ..

4 $2.60 Pieters on Reed … same same as above just a little one at good odds in case Reed blows up Sunday once out of contensh as he often does … NOTE TAB have the pairing wrong you’d have to back Noren if you’re operating in cash

well that’s it girls … should be a cracking finish tomorrow morning … leaders tee off a little earlier 3.30 am Aussie East Coast time to allow time for a play off … ooh wouldnt that be fun … my heart says back it … don’t count it out just yet

(oh and back the winning score to be -2 or worse at around even money)

enjoy

DAY 2 UPDATE

now and again the Punting Gods give you a “free” bet … imagine this … you can LAY Reed and / or Bryson and they’ll pay you money to take on JT or anyone else you fancy down the page … and just because they have a 1 and 2 shot lead … but a) there are still 2 full days to go and b) the course is going to get tougher … and tougher … no rain … the fairways will run out further so wayward cut shots will run through fairways into the rough … and greens will firm up … and get crustier in the afternoon … light headed nervous nellies beware … those tentative putts will all be missing at the hole …

WINNERS MARKET

LAY Reed (-4) at $5.80 … he cant possibly keep these scrambling stats up for another 2 days .. maybe 1 but not 2 .. he might even do his back in with that helicopter twirl seems to be getting more and more exaggerated

LAY Bryson (-3) at $5.90 … his strategy wont work at the weekend as the course gets tougher .. his short game is the weakest of the the top players … save your bullets on him for Augusta where its wide open

BACK JT (-2) at $6.60 … my views on JT were enunciated in Thursdays preview .. he wont give up …

BACK one other .. take your pick … or sprinkle some around on 2 or 3 of these puppies …. Xander (E) is at $10 only couple shots back (although he did miss plenty fairways today need to keep an eye on that tomorrow ) … I’ve added Matsuyama’s (E) at $22 as his ball striking stats were the best up top today and he seems to be getting comfortable with these greens … not sure he can win under pressure Sunday but if he’s in the mix we can lay some back in single digits from this $22 price … and I haven’t given up on Simpson (+2) although he needs everyone to fall away around him as he just stays there like a cockroach … or he gets on one of those tears of 10-15 foot putts like 2 months ago when he won … I’ve added some at $50 …

DAY 3 PAIRING BETS Top 3

only half stakes today girls … we had a great day today 2 out of the 3 came home averaging almost 2 to 1 so bank some of that … the pairings just didnt fall well for tonight .. players i don’t like paired together … or favourites i do like playing absolute jubs so very short priced under $1.50 yet as my regular followers know i don’t like DAY 3 bets really as strange things can happen they’re just not as reliable as DAY 2 when people might have to make putts to make the cut or DAY 4 when everything is on the line … but for a bit of fun take:

1) Matsuyama vs Blubber Watson

2) Simpson vs Hovland

3) Berger vs Westwood

TOURNAMNET HEAD TO HEADS UPDATE … so far so good … Fitzpatrick BANKED vs Rose who choked the last few holes to +10 .. noice … JT on Rory looking good … not counting chickens there yet though … and Berger and Simpson on Cantlay got few shots in the tin … only bummer is Simpson on Bryson but certainly haven’t given up on that one just yet !

set the alarm for 4am … enjoy !

DAY 1 UPDATE

well that was the easy day … was always forecast to be the best day for weather … tomorrow gets chilly … and greens start to firm up …. scores will deteriorate tomorrow .. and i’m worried the afternoon field today might have got the right side of the draw as the wind died completely … might not be same for tomorrows afternoon field .. and did you notice how the greens slowed a little as the poa grew in got a little bumpy here and there .. you know that thing when the whingers do the “tap the spike mark down it was clearly that and not my fault” when they miss a 5 footer ?

WINNERS MARKET

LAID 33% of JT position at $5.10 … (he got down to $4.80 in running) … scores will be tougher in the afternoon not confident he’ll be still leading by days end … he tees off the 10th so gets the tough stretch of the last 3 holes out of the way early so GET BACK ON HIM in running whatever the price before he tees off the easy par 4th 6 (should be about 6am our time) for an easy run his last few holes

BACKED Dustin at $46 … do it at least for “a saver” (enough to cover all your bets in the winners market should he win) .. he was actually unlucky today with his putting he gave up 0.77 strokes to the field .. he’s rarely in the negative on that stat … did you see how many middle distance maybe makeable ones rolled by the hole? his fairways hit (6) and GIR (12) not that bad … he plays in the morning and could be a different man

LAID Reed $13 … cant possibly win … hitting it everywhere (only 5 fairways) just got lucky this morning with recovery shots .. will be found out possibly even tomorrow hes too inconsistent lately

DAY 2 PAIRING BETS – TOP 3

1) BACK MATSUYAMA around $2.50 vs Reed and Spieth … he should close the gap to faltering Reed and hopefully Spieth behaves and keeps missing his drives

2) BACK DJ around $2.60 ($2.63 Sportsbet) vs DeChambeau and Finau … hopefully he closes the gap to them after todays round hence shooting the better round of the day which is all we need

3) BACK SCOTT around $3.25 vs Rory and Rose … bit dangerous this one so tier them and leave this last if youre multying up …. i think he’ll close the gap to Rory but Rose might do also

enjoy

thanks ozinsa … not counting 1 chicken yet though … tables might reverse a bit and ive just sold some of him out as youll see in my DAY 1 UPDATE post shortly …

one thing about DJ most have missed … and which he alluded to in his presser .. is he doesn’t like to hit draws odd the tee … so the course layout doesn’t suit him really … so he’ll have to dial back on some of the tees and only saw a few holes he would hit driver as he would run out of fairway on those dogleg lefts … i cant decide if thats a bad thing for him as hes not used to hitting more than 9 irons into par 4s (!) … or could be a good thing as he wont be visiting the rough as often … we will see he certainly has all the tools if he and his equally smart brother caddy can work it out ! we’ll know in a few hours now …

that will be some feat if Morikawa pulls it off .. back to back Majors .. youd have to respect that … looking forward to seeing how he handles the test frankly as i like him long term .. enjoy !

hi Long_Grass … my top 3 Tournament Head to Heads this week are :

with Sportsbet :
1) Scott $1.94 vs Day
2) Simpson $1.70 vs Cantlay
3) JT $1.81 vs Rory

with Ladbrokes / Neds:
1) Berger $1.91 vs Cantlay
2) JT $1.91 vs Rory
3) Simpson $1.91 vs DeChambeau

with TAB:
1) Simpson $1.80 vs DeChambeau
2) Berger $1.93 vs Cantlay
3) Fitzpatrick #1.80 vs Rose
4) JT $1.75 vs Rory
(but remember TAB count the “Tie” as an outcome even for the 4 day Tournament Head to Head so if they happen to shoot the same score and believe me it happens then you LOSE whereas with most bookies like Sportsbet you get your stake or half the potential payout back … Ladbrokes same as TAB but at least they compensate it with better price)

for the thrill seekers multi up 2 or 3 of them you like but do please keep the larger stakes on the individual Head to Heads … the reason we like Top 3 is if 2 come home you’re AHEAD of the game, if only 1 comes home you’re still IN the game … occasionally you win all 3 but you rarely lose all 3 …. you only need to win over half your bets averaging even money to be a consistent winner … good luck !

hi there hammertime .. i know what you mean “he owes you” but i’m not sure Day will repay this week .. but who knows which “Day” will turn up ?? … wouldn’t talk you out of Matsuyama though .. hes been showing the signs last few weeks he was under the radar nicely then found his putter at BMW finished 3rd then 15th Tour Champs .. been consistent at US Open layouts last year 21st and 16th prior and 2nd at Erin Hills 2017 … consistent but as you say his putting is the problem esp on these greens …. so i cant see him winning but might be worth a hedge top 10 or top 20 or if you use Betfair back him at $40 and lay some off if hes in contensh Sunday … (oh and ill see you at the RSGC CUp Saturday morning then!)

hi Paul … and thanks for the compliment .. yes i like Fleetwood hes on my “looking to back” list for Head to Heads and Daily Pairings trades … he likes the tough US Open layouts whilst only 65th last year he was 2nd and 4th prior … consider hedge his juicy $38 WIN price with a top 10 or top 20 … he wasnt great since Covid comeback but did strike the ball lovely last week in Portugal finished 3rd .. Hatton i find too hit and miss and can be a hothead not sure he’ll handle the adversity of all the bogies … but was 26th last year and 6th prior and recent form trending nicely 25th 16th then 7th at Tour Champs so i wouldn’t talk you out of him .. but less reliable as Fleetwood for a consistent finish maybe … good luck