To attain what you suggest is a likely event we need to overcome more than historical stats / records Etc. . All Oz fans will be ecstatic for sure – but it’s more than the win – we will have scaled the biggest wall in rugby history to get there – it truly will be the journey .
It’s not just the awesome NZ record – but on this day – at Twickenham where we’ve done it before – a pretty good Oz back line will endeavor to contain the best skilled backs ever assembled in one team – and the put one over them – just one will do.

Not one Oz back would replace a NZ back from 9 to 15 positionally – but our collective power has been intertwined with three superlative back rowers to give a chance to take the time and space from the Black backs. This is the only way we or anyone else can win .
I’ve said before we can learn from Georgia – we need to swarm like a pack of rabid dogs protecting the last of their young – Aussies call it mongrel. – collective mongrel it is then !

Die hard this game addressed our prior 2 weeks failings – one of which was to never unlock our 13 and wings . Foley / Gits on own cant do it . Izzie also can’t – he is his own train .
But Beale stepped up and got some space for the outside backs with success. His pass is clearly superior to all other backs and receivers benefit. He pus doubt into defenders who don’t know where he is going. He is clearly our fastest dude on the field – so he must start. He is everywhere in general play and takes on many roles – eg kick off tap backs .
Versus Arg I would put Izzie on wing and start Beale full back and flip AAC to left to bring his right fend into play Beale can feed both and TK
Clearly Cheiks didn’t trust Cooper in a tight game – even with Foley making errors and doing nothing to spark others – one of Beale or Cooper must start.
Izzie needs a Beale to create timing opportunities .

forwards I thought there was clear Scot strategy to Bore in on Sio side and transfer stressing Kepu side
The last scrum wAs so blatant it is incredible not penalized Marler was comparative amateur. Sio injured and in my view from dangerous and illegal tactic
Fardy is fast becoming my Oz of tournament.
Hooper was consistently beaten at wide breakdowns and mystery why McMahon didn’t get last 20 mins. Poor bench decision.
Our forwards will need to carry us From now on – our much lauded backs are not the hype. Not one of them would get a start in position for position comparison with AB back line. So from now on our only chance is to dominate enough to close down space.

There isNo TMO available to ref for this . Full stop
Only Foul play and Scoring situation ( or not)
This would be like going to TMO for every scrum penalty.
Joubert called it instantly – that’s it Move on . We got lucky – but otherwise would still have had a scrum put in at worst. And one more chance .

If we get to final we already will have a grand slam if Ireland cut through this weekend. If we won final it would truly be a remarkable journey.

There’s two criteria here – most important – or best win. I have to think there have been more important games to win with all their surrounding circumstances 1991 Qtr , 1999 semi, 2003 semi and selected Bleds.
But the best win in recent time is the Eng game. All the surrounding context – effective knockout for both , demolished in last two match ups , humiliation of uncontested scrums still ringing in ears, arrogance of Eng players in press talking up theirA!B, and C game, Woodward calling us stupid and easy pickings , England having so much more to lose than the game itself , Oz still with many of the same players , – it was all there – all part of a prize package so much bigger than the game itself
Then the win , a crushing unarguable win – not in spite of England’s strength as in the past , but taking that very strength away from them .- at Twickenham on the biggest stage we get to play . Finally the respectful acknowledgement by Eng fans after the game .
This was no ordinary win – It was THE win .

It’s hard to believe we have had two of the greatest Wallaby matches in a row. I have to rate the nature of the win over Englannd at the very top of recent times. The circumstances – recent history , effective knockout for both teams, prior character crushing uncontested scrums, arrogant pre match banter by Eng players , Woodward calling us stupid and some , but most of all England at Twickenham on the biggest stage having been demolished the last two – yes this was the highest privilege to be there . We won , we crushed , we left no doubt . And to credit , many Eng fans walked up and shook mine and my sons hands. Respect all round then.
Wales showed us up in many ways but not our scrum. Repeatedly held up in mauls taking all momentum away , Wales faster to loose ball even when we created loose situation , still no outside back attack 3 games on now, kicking with no catching chasers, limiting Genia to distributor , not recognising that The longer Beale is on field the more confusion there is in defensive lines , but these players will remember the 13 men 13 minutes over many beers, and to their grave – and we will not take a backward step for some time to come . Fans can suck it up – pride is now encumbent.

Yes – clearly longer ago than I thought!!

As v Eng Great engagement by players with fan pods around field. Outside everywhere Welsh and Aussies as one – mind you with Wales it has never been different – their great respect and expectation for the scrum turned to declared admiration for ours. – we didn’t manage a try – so they retained many points of pride.

” never before in the history of Oz rugby did so many owe so much to so few- this was our finest hour – errr 15 minutes ”
At match with my 2 boys – great seats – we live for a family day out like that – atmosphere was great 80.100 crowd and lots of singing red and nervous yellow.

Wales closed out our backs space ( as we did also) which was also the key for our Eng win.
Foley goal kicking a revelation
Folau should not have played – he was completely off in the air from the start although seemed to be able to run – surprised he came back at HT – also reminder what bench used to be for – i.e. Replace injured. But we ran out and we’re lucky not to be tested re Folau in last 7 minutes when he could hardly walk . This is why Foley went for goal instead of corner when Wales could not win.
For third week running we have failed to get Kurindrani and wings into game in attack. But TK executed his mission to close down North brilliantly.
Clearly have game plan for Genia to play conservative attack game and feed others.
Giteau defense fantastic – mind you so was all defense.
McMahon was aggressive in tackle – but multiple times when in ruck or loose or end scrum ascendancy Wales picked up the ball.
We were held up in Mauls countless time and if scrum wasn’t so good this would have been real problem. As it was, we lost go forward.
Again KB was only player who found running space – what is missed with Beale is he throws defenses into confusion as they don’t know where he’s popping up and where he’s going. They simply fear his possibility and that’s enough – The longer he is on field , the greater dislocation of defense patterns otherwise solid .
But all about 56.50 to 70 – 13 desperate men – calm throughout – Douglass and McCalman Fardy magnificent – but the piggies – scrum after scrum one down – then another penalty and Wales don’t take scrum which was a victory right there. Then AAC tackle – guts to stick with blitz defense having drifted for prior 10 .
Ironically Wales made same end game error as Eng did with them. Soon as we were 13 , Warbuton should have taken points , received kickoff and attacked 13 for 10 min . The odds strongly with them. However…
Then a complete demolition scrum at 76 min to ice the cake.
If ever there was an anonymous “team”
win this was it . I say finest hour for 23 band of brothers –
50 years of wallaby watching – since Greg Cornelson put 3 away in Auckland when we were still young !
GP

I’m disappointed that Beale didn’t get his start -on form he deserves it and Wales fear him. Mitchell is a long second at moment.
However if Folou and Gits are a bit tender there is some logic to the bench.( but even then you can switch Beale from wing) Just hope he gets good shot of game time as his skill relies on opportunity which multiplies with time.
However I still think he is better on the field at wing regardless as he proved last week how he gets involved at all phases. No shrinking violet on the sideline . Moving him around certainly confuses the defenses.
Otherwise it’s our front five plus their replacements to do the job . Hope we don’t get over confident like the Poms.

Well , an ” I was there moment” -the face wide grin on Cheikas face as we closed out with a try – and the enthusiastic tribute by the players to the hysterical Aussie fan pods around ground. Personally acknowledging everyone – and climbing into stand for friend selfies. What a night to be an Aussie. !!
Personally I was confident about the scrum all along as England looked a shadow of former self v France and Ireland.
But it was our relentless tackling and holding quickly our defensive lines that took game away from England. They had no answer. We were just short of a pack of rabid dogs protecting their young.!!
The excitement of attack success – KB on BF shoulder to Genias reverse pass and KBs perfect timing on run and pass was sublime. kB taking his opportunity for game time, has consistently showed the best vision since Tim Horan and must start – even on wing.
But the tackling – by everyone – relentless .
This is only way to shake All Blacks and even Georgia showed how a real Pack of relentless dogs can upset the AB play machine – bring them on !!

Can’t agree. Of course it’s fine if we win 4 . The issue is the high probability/ possibility that we three win one and lose one to each other.
Then the bonus points are crucial against each other and losing bonus points in play. .
It’s not just bonus points but the separation of top of group , then the scrap for the second place. So then for anfd against points may be deciding both top and second.
Eng will know points they need v Uraguay in their last game.
Point is it will heavily involve bonus points unless one of us clean sweeps. Meanwhile we are one down on the par line .

This was breathtaking to watch – it wasn’t just the win – every time they came back at the Boks it was impossible not to feel that they were taking on an impossible strength .
Their huddle and decision to go for the try as a collective force was inspiring but still not guaranteed .
This buildup scenario and the way it played out was identical to Farr Jones and Lynagh decision in 1991 RWC qtr final v Ireland when they turned down a Drop goal strategy to draw the match and ran for the try with Lynagh himself going over well held in far corner – and then the cup.
I hope it augers just as well for the Brave Blossoms

Yes England were not great and breakdown was poor and disorganized At least in that aspect Wallabies may be fortunate that it is Robshaw at 7 . In this game , 2 games v France and one Ireland , there is no evidence of a consistently dominating scrum. In nearly all defeats by Eng the points directly from scrum dominance have exceeded the margin of loss.
If this becomes a neutral field this is good news for Wallabies.
However England’s backs are underestimated – and finally with some talent they are playing a quite different role to recent English backs.
Against the grain I have been a big proponent for Burgess inclusion, if Lancaster is brave , he will start him, and cover him off with replacement if necessary. Burgess is no one dimension 12 . His mistakes will be more than offset by his straight running with offload built In. And then there is his mullering tackling – it’s not often the crowd watch each of them wondering if the victim will get up. Get up or not, they will vary their next plays.
But most of all it is his field and team presence. he is a natural leader with charisma and unreal calm. All his colleagues want to go over the top beside him. That’s why Lancaster took the Burgess gamble. I hope he only has 20 min v Oz .
.

Agree totally. No problem Ref awarding a penalty try but with the chaos of the Maul it should be protocol to review the maul play. Players joining ahead of ball carrier cannot be any different to a forward pass or knock on review. If seen and acknowledged by ref it’s penalty the other way. .
I don’t agree with Argument of two much TMO if it proves the facts it’s good . But the repeated replay time over and over should have a time limit for decision. If not clear then Ref acts accordingly at that point.

Your missing the point. No one wants a no try given as a try. But we have appointed an official and a TMO with full technical support. The ref instantly awarded the try from a position that he nor the linesman scurrying to keep up, could see the final grounding.
The TMO. also did not intervene quickly with the tech back up
The kicker was proceeding with his conversion routine
Only a public screen replay then exposed the error. This replay is a ” home” TV feed. . They did not have to play the edit and particularly so if it had been an England “try” . Without it we would have converted and returned to kick off. When exactly does time run out for a Try clearly awarded by the Ref ? Regardless if he got it wrong ? The next kickoff? The after match review ! After all as you say it was not a try .
Delayed reversals are unacceptable. Once given it should stay given.
The real point is that the Ref protocol must be that he only awards a try he sees. If not, first ask his ref linesman, and then TMO. Equally, the TMO should have a clear time limit to fly his flag if he wants to intervene .
This is all about the Ref only awarding what he or his ref colleagues actually confirm . And then that decision is final. In this case the Ref failed the protocol.

Just imagine a Folau career last three years behind AB go forward and almost always winning team – and so comprehensively that running in more has little or no pressure.

Master stroke ? He has a plan ? revolutionary ? None of these. There has always been a plan – almost an insult to suggest otherwise. All the Roarers ruminating about Chiekas first 15 team ( of course it’s fun ) totally miss the real plan . He doesn’t have a first 15.
Some time back , probably an hour after appointment, he concluded he will never win a majority of tests v top countries and definitely not win RWC with his ” best 15 ” team which will always come up short ( just) .
Chiekas has committed to a ” 23 man first team” It’s easy to chat and rap about it on basis all Coaches give it good lip service. But this is truly different and we all need to get on board for the ride. This may be the first real “squad ” strategy. All players like to start – but all the evidence is that he has instilled in all the players that the bench has an equally critical role in the Goal – winning the match at 80 + min . Whether some key positions vary on perceived current form or the nature of opposition ( eg. Wales compared with England ) is just part of the 23 man team .
Chieka has taken this road as best bet to to beat equal or better teams on one off basis eg. RWC knockouts. . Others have said he doesn’t have the same talent as 2007/2011 coaches had – but it is convenient to forget that Deans had an extraordinary list of injuries and literally no depth. Cheiks has played this luck card and it allows him to implement this plan.
So big issue for me is not who starts but the bench plan.
It is a backwards selection . First 6/2 or 5/3 . ? V England 6/2 is likely . This has big impact on inside backs. .Foley can’t be on bench as no positional flexibility . So he starts or not at all . If only 2 backs , Gits covers 9 so must be bench . This drops Toomua into starting 12 . I speculate that Beale will be other back for talent, Chieka love, and flex cover – Beale and Gits. For England , toss your coin for Foley or Cooper..but choice will play full match . Same with 9. starter will finish . Even though Genia is solider , England backs are much quicker tan recently and Phipps may be best
All other games including Wales can play 5/3 . 2 9s and Giteau to start as not restricted to bench . Toomua Beale are bench . That’s not so hard then .
This 23 man interchangeable team can win – and certainly has better chance than a best 15 man strategy for Oz
Only caveats are not this strategy. . But are – not having a long range goal kicker likely to start – a Twickenham essential normally –
AND only 2 hookers and 7 front rows when 6 are legally required for every match seems like risking not insuring your house for fire and then being smug about it when it doesn’t burn down. A risk too far I say while swamped with wings.

Please help me on Chiekas outside back selection ( in face of controversial reductions in Hooker and halfback )
AAC , Kuridrani, Horne , Tomane, Mitchell, Speight – and Beale , Cooper , Folau all who can cover wing if need be .
AAC covers 13 and AAC and Beale Cooper cover 15 .
Therefore none of the excess selection has anything to do with covering a risk. So how can they be used? What would one more game against USA tell you that you didn’t already know from this group. ? Nothing.
AAC has started wing recently and probably continue ( unless needed elsewhere for injury ) that leaves one slot for four of these selections. This is RWC not End year tour so more important to hone your first pick form than give others a run. So no game time.
So I am concerned with bench impact. Why would you pick so many if not to allocate a bench slot to one of them. ?
This interferes wit the recent utility approach where a 2 man combo of Giteau, Beale , Toomua covered the backs and freeing up a slot for an extra forward. Three of them cannot play any other position and like Foley are not good bench candidates unless extra back included . ( Foley not bench candidate at all – he is start or nowhere) and none of them can goal kick . So without White there is no long distance kicker except Beale who may only get 10 mins. I can just see Ford/Farrell/Halfpenny 3 for 3 from 48 Metres and Cooper /Foley/Gitau 0 for 3 – or worse – just kicking for line.
So can anyone propose what the outside back selection strategy is here ?

Living in England I always see lots of posts added already – and lot of good ones here.
What I can’t accept is 2 hookers. Just one injury we are under gun . They will both have to play all four pool matches with no other cover. and then each of knockouts if we make it.
After first two matches which are only four days apart – wed then Sunday , we have eng only 6 days later and Wales one more week
Whatever happens v Eng we almost certainly will need to beat Wales in the last .
How can it be expected that two hookers stand up through that program .
So to me this is not selection opinion . There is an unacceptable and unnecessary high risk strategy here. Why ?
If Moore or TPN have a recoverable injury before Eng or Wales , we will need to declare them on plane home to get our third specialist to give us chance to get to knockouts – and we would then have lost for the tournament our first/second choice hooker. I say this is madness . And this scenario has a relevant % likelihood.

On other hand , having been quite judicious in multi cover at 9/10/12/15 he has picked all of Horne, Mitchell, Tomane, Speight, with AAC also in the bag and playing wing last 4 tests . What on earth is this about . ? There is no comparison with Hooker risk. Include Beale and Cooper with AAC and we are not exactly short of wing cover whoever your starting 2 are .
So I ask again what is this about ? All other positions are arguable on opinion – With Douglass game time a mystery as big as not including Smith in train on group. Cheiks already said he had a role for smith in mind – so what can it be?

Actually it’s Uruguay not Russia, and it’s 4 games not 6. Impact about same though.
As I said in an earlier thread there is a highly possible result of Eng Wales Oz all winning one losing one. In that case it goes to points differences for Pool and the games v Fiji and Uraguay have extra importance as we play them first and England plays Uruguay last and would know what is required. Basically we need to beat England !

Roarers are certainly excelling in the Selection analysis/ speculation .
But not much relative consideration of what is needed in England in a RWC match against the group A opposition. Tactical kicking, line kicking, 90%goal kicking , long range goal kicking and drop goal kicking. No matter how much of it you do , what you do do must be spot on and all history shows this wins RWC knockout matches. Did I Say kicking?
OZ plays Fiji and Uruguay first. We traditionally have often started rusty. Eng will already have played FIJi and we can see if Pacific Championship form over Samoa has travelled .
But we also need to prepare our ( new) halves for the last two key games – ( they’re all new as combo) – as well as piling on points. There are highly probable scenarios for points difference deciding BOTH the 2 top slots , and also possible no 1/ decided but 2nd/3rd is point difference shoot out.
In first 2 games We have no choice but to play those who will have greatest chance to run in tries and kick all points.
England plays Uraguay last and if this above scene unfolds , will know exactly what their target is. This they achieved to good effect against the odds in similar 6 nations final day this year when it looked Wales or Ireland would win . Last is powerful. So our first two games are really important .
Sat night in Paris will confirm to us the England level. This last French game France dominated the scrums to many s surprise – this week England will start the A team scrum . We will see.
With WBs scrum improvement we may even get parity part of game – but in last three matches v Eng we have given away directly in scrums more points than our losing margins.
However just when we might right some or all of this deficit, England has finally put together a fine set of backs and is choosing to use them instead of just forward juggernaut. They all playedthis week collectively better than WBs did in each of our last two matches .( win and loss)
I predict Sam Burgess will start against us – after early skepticism he could adjust to Union 12. Not only is he nearly 19 stone, he has immense presence on field with his fellow players – he is everywhere and already a leader even on debut. Here is calm, clearly has the confidence of fearing no one, and infects his team with this notion. He ran and passed well enough in attack making right choices. But his defense was AWESOME – twice absolutely mullered the French centre ( only15 stone) and one wondered if he would get up each time. A new passing genius outside him Slade made sure the extra quick outside 3 got the ball in space. . This then is the new enemy and our inside back set up is not large except Kurindrani who has not excelled in rush tackling of late. It’s hard to see us having an offensive defense against this lot – containment will be issue. Particularly 10/12 channel (as bravely as Giteau and Toomua tackle)
Wales are not firing yet and we play them at twickenham which I consider is an advantage Oz. we play them last , but it would be a pity to be playing for 2nd /3rd . It’s winning Group that gives path to final , and 2nd is Boks then ABs before final .
So against England I would start both Pocock and hooper to maintain parity / ascendancy in one forward area.
I would start Simmons To secure line out. . We can’t give them strategic line/Metres kicking option that they believe have 50/50 to win back
Halves – I would start White – as long range kicking points are essential v England and they can’t believe they have free run mid park.
For England it is Genia to finish for me – can’t have passing risk at end of game v England.
Cooper Fly Toomua 12 Kurindrani AAC Mitchell Folau
Reasoning – Toomua is the only one of our midfield selections that will contain Burgess early and stand up to his tackles so want to start him Giteau to sub either – if Cooper then Toomua to fly. You could start Toomua Giteau but if we want Giteaus attack sharp we can’t wear him out tackling or being mullered by Burgess. I know GIS punches above weight in defense but we need hom fresh for attack.
Finally give Beale more than 5 mins. Anywhere . In the big game I would bet on Beale to anticipate and pass better than most – he also tackled well at Eden. Let him run in 5 tries and 7 assists v Uraguay to get his timing spot on for the tighter defenses to come.
I can’t wait.!!

It’s simply not correct to dismiss the RWC draw path and pool s .
NZ and SA have guaranteed Qtr finals having played no opposition in Group.with NZ no opposition in Qtr Even abject failure gets them through as 2nd in group . oz Wales and Eng could be dumped/ advanced just on points differences impact with Uraguay .

To get to Final France will have to only beat either Ireland or England or Oz. one big game. If oz comes second on goal differences we play Boks then NZ before final. If we win those we get France or Ireland. You pick .
Point is like tennis you don’t have to beat everyone , that is also the job of others in a knockout . Eg semi 1999 when France cleared out NZ for us
Soft path is clearly the most helpful in attritional tournament.
Finally a soft group gives a second chance. Eg For Paris WC , England got mullered by South Africa in Group , lived to take us out in Marseille and played Boks in final .
Beware the points difference impact on Group A either for both top 2 or just for 2nd slot.

Ted said | August 12th 2015 @ 8:04pm | Edit your comment. (Up to 10 minutes available to edit.) | Report comment

I see Eden as a poisoned chalice. What we need is a very solid game . We don’t NEED a win to go forward to RWC
Wins V Boks, Argies ABs all strong finishing plus a solid game Saturday. That’s what we need . A win would be great – BUT – remember at RWC ( if we advance from Pool A ) we face NZ in either Semi or final .
Three wins Over the ABS in a row is beyond any reasonable expectation. If we meet in Semi (2nd in pool) we will also have just played and beaten BOKs in qtrs.
for me save my next win V NZ for the one that counts.

Also lot of talk about selection V NZ as if that is same set of needs as playing other RWC teams. We will have 4 pool matches. Uruguay and Fiji can be very relevant . It is a likely event that Oz /Eng/ Wales each win one and lose one to each other. If so the for and against points will, decide top 2 . Sad but true We need incisive players in group to pile on the points in those games as eng and Wales will be tight . Finally there is no win at RWC without field position kickers in backs, high penalty % , and long range penalties and drop goals .
Therefore for all above its Toomua , Quade, Giteau , Beale -all flexible positions -( sorry Foley – no strategic kick, goal kick, running X factor no bench flex – good but just short) genia , White ( sorry Phipps this is a knockout competition) the rest pick themselves with depth options. For a mom remember poor Robbie Deans with up to 20 injuries at one point and no further depth. Cross fingers our key guys stay fit Pocock, Sio, and Kepu .
We are in with a show but need to Top pool A , 2nd place will be knackered by time final comes after beating Boks and NZ.

Reply

I see Eden as a poisoned chalice. What we need is a very solid game . We don’t NEED a win to go forward to RWC
Wins V Boks, Argies ABs all strong finishing plus a solid game Saturday. That’s what we need . A win would be great – BUT – remember at RWC ( if we advance from Pool A ) we face NZ in either Semi or final .
Three wins Over the ABS in a row is beyond any reasonable expectation. If we meet in Semi (2nd in pool) we will also have just played and beaten BOKs in qtrs.
for me save my next win V NZ for the one that counts.

Also lot of talk about selection V NZ as if that is same set of needs as playing other RWC teams. We will have 4 pool matches. Uruguay and Fiji can be very relevant . It is a likely event that Oz /Eng/ Wales each win one and lose one to each other. If so the for and against points will, decide top 2 . Sad but true We need incisive players in group to pile on the points in those games as eng and Wales will be tight . Finally there is no win at RWC without field position kickers in backs, high penalty % , and long range penalties and drop goals .
Therefore for all above its Toomua , Quade, Giteau , Beale -all flexible positions -( sorry Foley – no strategic kick, goal kick, running X factor no bench flex – good but just short) genia , White ( sorry Phipps this is a knockout competition) the rest pick themselves with depth options. For a mom remember poor Robbie Deans with up to 20 injuries at one point and no further depth. Cross fingers our key guys stay fit Pocock, Sio, and Kepu .
We are in with a show but need to Top pool A , 2nd place will be knackered by time final comes after beating Boks and NZ.