“August 24th”…”Great date!!

Please explain.

Congratulations on a very well researched article. Great AFL talent being drafted.

This link says that Queensland AusKick centres had an increase in numbers varying between 10-15% in 2020, despite many of the 900 AusKick centres being closed in the earlier sages of corona.
It also quotes AFL officials saying they expect Queensland football participation to rise a further 7-10% in 2021.
Both growth figures are very impressive

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-24/afl-experiencing-significant-boom-in-queensland/12804800

Assuming the Lions and Suns win about 12-14 games at least, every year for the next 5 years (quite likely, given 2020 form and promising Lists), how much bigger do you think community Australian Football will become?
Care to provide an estimated average annual growth for the “hotspot” of South East Queensland; and for the rest of Queensland?

Can you provide an update on proposed plans to increase the size of the Gabba?
How relevant is Brisbane’s plan to host the Olympic Games in 2032?

@ A. Houghton

I neglected to mention, possibly, the most important point why there will be no AFL Club mergers.

The broadcasters want content, and want 9 games pw to broadcast. Any reduction in games will lead to significant reduction in Rights payments- and thus payments to players & Clubs, less moneys for community development and promotion etc.

@ A. Houghton

Click bait article?

You failed to note the relevant facts. There is no chance of mergers or relocations- & the AFL has publicly stated several times ” 18 Clubs before the pandemic, and 18 Clubs will survive the pandemic”.

Firstly, there will never be agreement by the members of any Melbourne club to merge, or relocate.

Secondly, the AFL has the ability to control its costs, to avoid Clubs or the AFL going bankrupt etc. It has a financial “automatic stabiliser”.

The Football Dept cap, on coaches, assistants & the rest of the menagerie, has already been reduced from $9.7m to $6.2m- this is a saving of $63m per year.

AFL Clubs will make further cuts to the general office & management etc. costs. Tens of Millions in savings will be made.

AFL HQ has announced it has made redundant about 20% of its bloated HQ staffing- and there is plenty of scope for more cuts if needed. $10m+ savings pa.

The AFL Executive, paid about $10.8m pa, has been reduced from 11 to 8 -savings of nearly $3m pa.

The AFL has announced that player Lists will be cut- possibly to 35 players per club- big financial savings.

Remaining player wages from 2021, although not yet officialy detailed, will also be cut. The AFLPA will protest, of course, but have no bargaining power- there is no other wealthy Australian Football competition the players can transfer to.
Further savings in the Millions.

As the AFL now own Marvel Stadium, worth about $1.5b, the AFL can obtain loans at very low,long term interest rates.
(Unlike the NRL, who had to go to a British Private Equity Fund- borrowing at exhorbitant rates).

Only about 1% of Club members around Australia asked for a refund of their 2020 membership. Members have shown they are very loyal to their Clubs.

As I said, my comment was based on a comment from a Roar Poster. I had no direct knowledge of the situation in the late 90’s.

Thank you for the link- I was not aware Victoria had this number of League clubs. It is bigger than I thought.
Do you know approximately how many males played tackle League in Victoria in 2019, in a competition?
And females?

A very well written & comprehensive article, Andrew. Thank you.
The long run of success of the Storm is probably unparalleled, in any country, in modern pro sport.

Only 3 minor “criticisms”/suggestions I would like to make.
What are the details, with comprehensive examples, of Bellamy’s coaching techniques etc. that have made him such a great coach?

League has made very little progress in community tackle player numbers in its 23 years in Melbourne- the numbers are miniscule.
A poster on The Roar said there were more men playing RL in the late 90’s than now (I don’t know if this is accurate).
Why are the tackle numbers so poor- and do you anticipate any major improvements?

If the community tackle playing numbers don’t have a major improvement, and if Storm crowds drop back to an average of about 10- 12,000 when they, inevitably, fall to 12th or lower on the ladder, will their existence in the NRL be threatened?

@ Spruce Moose
Citing the supremacy of the NRL, over the AFL, in Brisbane can be a double-edged sword. “Faint praise”!
Even though Brisbane has only 1 NRL team, in the 2001-2005 period, the Lions crowds were often superior to the Bronco- amazing for a League stronghold.
Broncos are clearly far more popular, but remember they often play in Prime Time (Friday night) , and on the main channel.
This contrasts with the Lions- also playing on a secondary channel is guaranteed to demolish ratings vis-a-vis the same game being played on the main channel.
This was demonstrated when Melbourne Storm played on Friday night on the main Channel 9 channel a few weeks ago (AFL had not resumed)- it rated about 95,000 in Melbourne: compared to its usual (secondary channel) rating of about 30,000 in Melbourne. And, of course, the Storm have been Australia’s most successful pro team, of any sport since 1997. League tackle community club numbers in Melbourne are tiny, in the few clubs where it is played.
The Lions have been poor for most of the last 15 years.
However, Australian Football club and school competition (both primary and secondary, state and private) registered numbers have had great growth in the Gold Coast-Brisbane-Sunshine Coast corridor . Amazingly, they are now are close to League tackle numbers (not including the Ipswich and Toowoomba areas).
It is not surprising that there over 100 current AFL players, who were born in NSW, Queensland, or the ACT.
In the NRL, about 45% of players were either born in NZ or the Pacific Islands; or were born in Australia, but come from a NZ or Pasifika background.

This is the NRL Penrith reference I alluded to above, about the major decline in League tackle numbers- it is from Greg Alexander, former Penrith captain, and now a League junior coach in Penrith.

https://www.sportingnews.com/au/league/news/next-nrl-ceo-must-address-the-grassroots-says-greg-alexander/od8e592kopqn1et03izo3k1tc

It should be remembered that Penrith, and other areas of the western suburbs, are considered a League stronghold in Australia- but even in the western suburbs, competitions have had to be merged, due to the major decline in tackle numbers.

eg the junior WSDJRL with the Canterbury Bankstown DJRL, from 2017.

eg in 2019, the senior Sydney Combined Competition (where senior players from the very small number- about 5- of remaining northern and eastern suburbs senior community clubs have had to travel to the western suburbs, to be able to continue).

Phil Gould, Joey Johns, and other League experts have recently stated that, due to the decline in League playing numbers, that the NRL should not expand from 16- but that it should contract, to improve the playing standard.

@ Cliffo
I agree with you that, in NSW and Queensland, NRL TV &and Foxtel ratings far exceed those for AFL matches. As does the usual “watercooler’ conversations.
It should be remembered, however, that AFL matches go for much longer, compared to NRL matches- so, on the metric of total viewing minutes of NRL &and AFL matches in NSW and Qld., the AFL has slightly more relevance.

What Mark did not mention- registered player numbers of both codes- was that Australian Football player numbers are making great progress in both NSW, Queensland and the ACT. In contrast, male League tackle numbers are in a major long term decline.
Even a Penrith NRL club official admitted, in a recent newspaper article, that the NRL is “padding” its numbers by including non-tackle touch and tag players- to disguise this decline in contact players.
And other League officials, journalists, and ex-players have also commented publicly on League’s decline in tackle player numbers.

In Sydney’s northern suburbs, eastern suburbs, and inner western suburbs, community club League junior and senior playing numbers have had a major decline. Adult community League players have almost disappeared in these areas. Former NRL North Sydney President David Hill , in a speech, commented on this large player decline about 4 years ago.

Australian Football club playing numbers, however, in Sydney have had major growth (nearly tripling all over Sydney) since the introduction of GWS in 2012.
Furthermore, primary and secondary school (State and private) competition numbers in Australian Football, have also had major growth in Sydney. League’s school presence is minimal, and is also in decline.

Community Australian Football club player growth in Queensland has also been very strong- particularly in the Gold Coast-Brisbane-Sunshine Coast areas. League tackle player growth is also in decline there.

@ crosscoder

Roy Masters (in my above link) quoted anonymous media industry insiders that said the AFL conceded much less in their new media deals -about half of the decrease that the NRL did on their new deals. Masters is, of course, very pro NRL.

Journalist J. Stenshalt (& G. Mc Lachlan) said the AFL conceded about 12-13 % on their new deals, and this % was half of what the NRL conceded.

The deals are not like-for-like, since the AFL & NRL have different expiry dates on their new deals.
As to which organization will be, relatively, “in a better position” in the FUTURE cannot be known now. As the AFL has always received previously much better media deals, it can be assumed this will continue.

The details of the NRL’s new deal with Foxtel have not been revealed.

The fact that the NRL is not willing to release the details of its new Foxtel deal is telling- this implies it is poor, compared to the pre covid deal.
We know the NRL new deal with Nine (ie 2020-2022, with no extension) was poor. Nine made a statement to the Stock Exchange, after the new deal, that the NRL would be paid $119,000,000 less.

Your claim that the new NRL Foxtel deal, for the period 2023-2027, “was a little higher than the prior Foxtel deal expiring 2022” is extraordinary. Can you provide a link, or other evidence?
There is now a major Australian & international recession, likely to go for several years. All the media experts are stating that the value of sports Rights are in decline. You claim to know more than them?

Why won’t the NRL reveal the details of its new Foxtel deal for 2020-2027?

@ Walter Black.

It IS clear that the AFL’s new broadcast deals are much better than the new deals that the NRL achieved.

Even Roy Masters, League guru, agrees that the discount that the AFL conceded was “roughly half” the discount the NRL was forced to agree to (because the NRL was in a much more desperate financial position).

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/nrl/v-landys-dismisses-reports-afl-got-a-better-deal-out-of-tv-partners-20200612-p5521d.html

Also, Nine announced to the Stock Exchange, after the NRL deal was signed, that Nine had achieved a discount of about $119,000,000 in total, compared to the old agreement. This discount was for the period 2020-2022 (& the biggest discount, about $60,000,000, was for season 2020).

Do you really think if the NRL had achieved a better deal, compared to the AFL, it would remain silent on the exact worth of their new deal?
Unlike previously, why is the NRL now refusing to divulge the details of the new deal?

The details of the NRL’s new deal with Foxtel have not been announced.
The NRL, however, would have been granted a much lower amount compared to the old deal. Because of the coming recession, all codes (all over the world) are experiencing a decline in the value of their Rights.

John Quayle says the global pandemic will cause permanent, damaging changes to the NRL.

https://rugbyleaguehub.com/2020/03/27/leagues/nrl/john-quayle-says-pandemic-will-hit-rugby-league-more-than-the-super-league-war/ cause

Cricket will have the least impact of professional sports in Australia, since its season is over- although there has been reports that the World T20 Cup may not occur in Australia in October.
Hopefully, coronavirus has little impact in India.

As the UK is predicting coronavirus will exist for at least another 4 months, the UK cricket season will be delayed.

The problem for the A League is that, since their season has stopped prematurely, Foxtel can legally rip up their contract, for its full term- which is feared, due very low ratings.
This loss would be a disaster for the A League, since no other broadcaster would be willing to offer a sum remotely similar to Foxtel.

@ Big Daddy

Your comments about Steve Mascord’s recent articles on RugbyLeagueHub are pertinent, & present the NRL in a very dangerous position now, due to the health/financial crisis..

Macord is claiming that Channel 9 will make a (lower) broadcast deal DIRECTLY with NRL clubs, starving the NRL HQ of funds for game promotion, expansion, any chances to build up savings for a Future Fund- “the Clubs will hold sway” completely over the NRL. The NRL digital arm is also endangered by this “money grab” by the Clubs. A power struggle will ensue.

Discord: Is Australian rugby league headed for another rebellion?

In his other article interviewing former RL chief John Quayle, it is almost certain there will be a reduction in NRL clubs in 2021- with some Sydney clubs to be merged etc.
All NRL clubs will have to make cuts to their expenses- Football Departments, player wages, etc.; and NRL HQ expenses.

G. McLachlan has announced that all club Football Departments will cut their spending from $9.4 – $6.4 million pa. million from 2012. This will save the 18 AFL clubs $54 million pa.
AFL HQ & Club HQ spending will also have permanent major reductions from 2021- perhaps another reduction of a further $20 million+ pa in total.

There may be additional permanent reductions in AFL spending, depending on how much of the banks’ Line Of Credit (up to $600 million, obtained yesterday by the AFL) the AFL is forced to draw down- with increased interest payments.
McLachlan has said all 18 AFL clubs will survive, and be playing in 2021.

@ Chris
You are the deluded one. The figures I quoted come from the official FFA and AFL 2018 Official Participant Reports these organizations publish.

The links of both have been produced in numerous other articles in The Roar. I’m sure you know that, and recall the figures.

@ Munro Mike

Good statistical analysis.

You failed to mention that the FFA also includes, in its latest 2018 official report, the number of volunteers who assist in community soccer.
Thus, its 2018 (and previously) official participant figures of 1,851,683 include all volunteers, coaches and referees.

In contrast, the AFL does not count/categorize Australian Football volunteers, coaches or umpires in its official participant statistics (which in 2018 were a total of 1,649,178 participants)
If these 3 classes were counted, then official Australian Football participant numbers would probably surpass official soccer participant numbers in 2018.

As you correctly state, both the AFL and FFA (and other sporting organizations) have very rubbery official numbers- more than 50% of their counted “participants” are not playing in a club, or school, full season competition.

Volunteers in Australian Football would far exceed soccer volunteers.
Do you have any official numbers for volunteers in Australian Football?
(I recall seeing a figure of about 80,000 volunteers in about 2008, contained in an AFL report)

@ Joel

You use a lot of relevant facts in your analysis, and draw sensible conclusions from those facts: that quirky behaviour can get you into some trouble on The Roar.

Good comments about AFLW being played in grounds without grandstands etc, being exposed to the wind, is important.

Since the AFLW started, do you have any knowledge (or an educated guess) on the approximate number of games that have been played:

. partially, or mainly, in the rain?
. under very windy conditions?

(Your comment is interesting that scoring would be, probably, 30% higher, if played in the current, “protected” AFL stadia)

@ Chris White

Fair point.

I accept some soccer fans never had Foxtel, so didn’t watch the A League on a subscription service (but did on FTA)- and decided they wanted to watch more A League, so went with the cheaper Kayo.

In SBS days, what, and when, were the best SBS A League average game ratings?
SBS averages were better than the last few years on FTA.

@ R. Bettega
and your comment

“57k is not too bad” re the early 2018/19 Australia-wide metro Foxtel average A League game ratings before Kayo launched a few months after the A League started).

57K was a very poor average for the A League average game on Foxtel- and most Foxtel games are only averaging around 20 k now on Foxtel.

On the ABC FTA A League game, the average in 2019/20 is about 48k- also very poor. The numbers have crashed, compared to early SBS averages.
Neither Ch 10, nor ABC, are paying any money for the broadcasts, so poor are the ratings.

Unless these average A League ratings rise considerably, the worth of the next broadcast deal for the A League will be very low – and the A League will be compelled to be re-organized into a semi-professional League.

@Nemesis

You said above 5.2, 6.09pm

“2018/19 Foxtel ratings were 57k (before Kayo launched)
2018/19 Foxtel ratings, after Kayo launch (a few months into the season) were 32k”

Ha!
So Kayo was probably delivering about 25 K viewers (57k-32K) in season 2018/19.

As virtually all mainstream media soccer experts are saying the A League is continuing to decline in popularity, the Kayo average viewing figures are probably less than 25K per game now.

Correct- but 57K average (Australia-wide) for A League games in 2018 is “still very low” for a mainstream sport.

Or are you claiming 57K is a high, or a good figure, for the A League?
(If so, then one can conclude that the A League will never attract a large Broadcast rights deal)

Similarly, A League ratings, on FTA TV for the last 5 years, have also been very low- thus the reason why Ch. 10 & the ABC were/are making no cash payments for the broadcasts.

Pre 2018, the A League ratings crashed well before Kayo started- so it is incorrect to assume that the big drop in ratings on FTA and Foxtel “indicates” the losses migrated to Kayo in equal numbers.
There would have been some migration, because it was cheaper than Foxtel.

In the 2018/19 A League season, Kayo started a month or two after the A League season started- but even before this Kayo start, A League ratings were still very low for the commencement of the 2018/19 season.

@ Brainstrust
and your comment ” Where are all these fuel burns?”.

Massive bushfires have occurred in Australia, probably for 1,000,000+ years- and they will continue to be an inevitable and integral part of the south east Australian oil-based eucalypt forests’ regenerative ecology.

You have asked a very good question- which the Greens and leftists/ABC/SMH/The Age etc. wish to deflect.

The 2010 Victorian Government Royal Commission Report into the devestating bushfires was probably the most extensive Commission into bushfire issues ever conducted. It quizzed, extensively, the most respected, specialist bushfire scientists and firefighting experts.

In 2010, it recommended as a major priority
“The Commission wants the Government (State- fighting bushfires is, legally, a STATE responsibility) to roughly QUADRUPLE the amount of controlled burning it undertakes”.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-07-31/final-report-into-black-saturday-released/926484

On 6.1.20, on Channel 9’s Today program, Julie Bishop and the panellists discussed briefly this Report and recommendation- and Bishop said the Victorian Government since 2010 had only done 16% of the recommended fuel reduction burn-offs!

As quoted by PeterK at 8.35 am 8.1 above, Professor Ross Bradstock, NSW bushfire expert, also advised that “research showed that funding for hazard reduction burns need to be increased five-fold in NSW to manage the increasing bushfire threat”.
Yet this did not occur- it was reduced!

The ALP is desperately trying to retain its inner city seats around Australia from the Greens. The ALP, to retain these many seats, strongly promotes its “green credentials”.
The Greens consider CO2 anethma, and are opposed to major burn-offs etc.(AND the considerable CO2 produced). The Greens are also very agitated that these burn-offs might displace or kill furry animals.
The ALP and LNP don’t want to “unnecessarily” invite Greens’ opprobrium, and/or alienate green-leaning, animal-loving voters- so have not implemented the required, vast controlled burn-offs, full clearance around dwellings/roads etc.

Bushfires can’t be prevented- but, obviously, reducing the fuel build-up, having more cleared areas around dwellings and roadsides etc. can certainly reduce the effects of the inevitable fires.
Failure to do so has been a significant contributor to the current damage that has occurred.

Note that when, during a bushfire, wide containment lines are bulldozed and undergrowth backburning done- traditional measures to prevent the spread of bushfires- the Greens and left don’t complain. They know these types of fuel clearances actions can be EFFECTIVE!

The left also dont wan’t to discuss that, according to experts and the police, about 40% of bushfires are caused by arsonists- bushfire arson has greatly increased, and demonstrates the moral decline of society. Another 40% of bushfires are caused by “carelesness”- another damning fact. Trees and overgrown undergrowth don’t suddenly combust- lightning is responsible for about 20%.

@ Daniel Jeffrey

First your article completely ignored the major roles of arsonists, and inadequate fuel reduction burn-offs, in the current tragic bushfires- again, I ask you why?

Then, in your brief reply to my questions to you above , you did not properly address my questions? I request you address them.

Do you accept that the about 40% of bushfires are caused deliberately by arsonists?
And this is evidence of a moral decline in our society?

You AGAIN completely ignored the crucial issue of inadequate fuel reduction burn-offs (usually opposed by the Greens) as contributory factors for the fires.
On Channel 9’s Today Program, Julie Bishop & the panellists raised the issue that the Victorian Royal Commission on the 2009 bushfires recommended much more major fuel reduction burn-offs, and more bush clearances in rural areas; and Bishop said only 16% of the recommended burn-offs and clearances had been performed.

Perhaps your reticence to discuss properly, or even address, these crucial contributory bushfire issues reflects The Roar’s (which is supposed to be a SPORT website) increasing leftist political agendas? What say you?

This link below was an embarassing example (the tweet was hilariously withdrawn by the MEAA on the same day) by the journalists’ union, just after the LNP Federal victory, that it sees its role as promoting leftists issues.

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6041510927001

The MEAA refuse to discuss publicly their embarassing, withdrawn tweet (“Angry at the result of saturday’s election. Join the Union”).

Do you agree that most of the mainstream media promote leftist views?

@ Daniel Jeffrey

Why did you not mention in your article that it is estimated about 40% of the current fires are deliberately caused by arsonists (and the other 40% are caused by carelesness; or car exhaust sparking the side of roads)?
And why (in your reply to Phil) did you not respond to Phil (at 6.09pm, 5.1.20) who also mentioned “fires lit by arsonists”?
Do you accept that the high number of fires caused by arsonists represents a moral decline in our society?

We don’t just have a bushfire crisis. We have an arson crisis, too

Why did you not mention in your article that the failure to do fuel reduction burn-offs has contributed also?

@ Joe Frost
and your comment “Australia is not young” is misleading, and incorrect (in reference to the National Anthem’s lyrics).

Australia, as a nation/political entity, is young- having been formed in 1901.
The continent of Australia is, of course, many millions of years old.

Prior to european settlement, there has never been an Aboriginal nation on the island continent, now called Australia ie a united political entity.
Prior to european settlement, there were a vast number of Aboriginal tribes, in defined territories, with many with different languages, often at war.

The desire for the various separate colonies to become part of a Federation began in the 1860’s.

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/online/AustFederalism

The word “young” in the anthem, written in 1878, represents this desire, by the songwriter and others, for the young colonies to unite- and to become a new, young nation.
“Young”, therefore, is appropriate, and recognizes the desire to become a new, united nation.

There will probably never be an anthem where there is unanimity re the words and tune. It is fine, however, if people don’t wish to sing it.