The Roar
The Roar


Roar Guru

Joined July 2011









If the aim is to give opportunities to kids who wouldn’t have those opportunities otherwise, then lets change the rules to ensure that’s happening. But at the moment it seems the players coming through the NGA academies have access to all of these institutions.

And that’s hardly surprising, because of course the NGA academies serve a political purpose above anything else. They’re the product of a consistent chorus of whinging about the northern state academies, organisations that actually serve a purpose not otherwise met by their communities.

When the perception was that the northern state academies were being exploited, the response from the AFL was to immediately change it. And then change it again and again. And then strip large chunks out of GWS’ zone. And then to give other clubs academies.

The response to the NGAs not working the way they’re supposed to is nothing at all. That’s why I say the political advantages of certain states is having and will continue to have an on field impact.

AFL mock draft 2018: Top 30

It’s crazy. Victoria, WA and SA already have an almost endless number of institutions effectively doing academy work, promoting AFL and developing talented youngsters, in local clubs and major schools.

Jarrod Cameron is a classic case. He hardly played the game in Queensland, but took it up when he went to a prominent boarding school in WA because that’s just what everyone did there.

The sort of cases prompted multiple changes to academy rules when they benefited northern states clubs, but doesn’t even raise a murmur of concern when they benefit heartland clubs. It stinks how much the political advantages of certain states are allowed to have an on field impact.

AFL mock draft 2018: Top 30

Guaranteeing every club a minimum number of games each season at the MCG might be a good idea, but it doesn’t really solve the underlying problem. Maybe it could be part of a broader solution.

A best of three series will inevitably take some gloss off the occasion. No doubt about that at all. It’s a very special day in Melbourne.

But of course it’s supposed to be a special occasion for the game across the country. The AFL Grand Final remaining the preserve of one city is surely only sustainable for so long, one way or the other.

I don’t think the writer’s aversion to playing Grand Finals at the Docklands Stadium is a serious consideration.

Nor am I all that concerned about a season extended by two weeks eating into other codes. The AFL is funding more than its fair share of the Australian sporting infrastructure, and it seems to be getting better at sharing facilities with other codes – the floating fixture to accommodate the A-league grand final is a positive step – so this shouldn’t really be a critical issue.

I see positives and negatives around a grand final series, but we’re going to have to make a decision about the future of the grand final at some point. Maybe sometime soon we can trial a grand final series over three or four years and see how it works.

A best of three Grand Final series arguably makes things worse

There are also others who have chosen other sports; Darryl White’s kids, for example, are pursuing basketball careers despite being promising junior footy players.

Being related to successful footy players is certainly going to be a factor in whether a young person chooses a career in AFL. But as you suggest, geography is another big factor. And geography is the one that has an impact on the equality of the competition.

Josh has pretty much conceded the argument on the academies, but likes to snipe at them from time to time. It’s parochialism seeping through, which is fine.

Of course, John Blakey got to 100 games with Fitzroy first, and the Roys didn’t have many who got to that mark. North got a 100+ game premiership player out of struggling Fitzroy back in the 90s for virtually nothing so getting snippy about not getting his offspring as well seems a bit rich to me.

AFL mock draft 2018: Top 30

Paul’s right. When it comes to trade periods Brisbane oscillate between breaking even and big losses.

Hopefully at some point we can cross a certain threshold and start to attract big name free agents but the evidence suggests we’ll always be at some kind of disadvantage.

So long as we're shaking up the AFL draft, why not make it an auction?

We should do a mock draft auction on The Roar. I’m sceptical about the concept but it might be interesting to see how it works.

So long as we're shaking up the AFL draft, why not make it an auction?

I misunderstood that section. But in my defence, I feel like the following section about ‘more clubs playing for finals spots’ does make the whole thing more confusing. It seems like your system has fewer clubs in contention for finals spots later in the season.

I still feel this is a system with a lot of problems and no clear benefits.

The broken AFL fixture - and the solution

I won’t pretend I looked much beyond the Brisbane writeup, but it looks reasonable. Nick Robertson probably the most glaring omission, and I know some aren’t convinced about him.

I’m really excited about McCluggage. AA in 2019 might be a bit optimistic, but I reckon he’ll get there in the not too distant future.

An early sample of 2019's best 22s

From a branding perspective any Victorian clubs would object to being placed into a conference with non-Victorian clubs. Plus they would be locked into travelling interstate many times more than their rivals down the road.

I’m sure the northern state clubs would pretty strongly object to being locked into double ups with low drawing teams like North Melbourne and the Bulldogs.

I don’t really understand the writer’s conception of how finals would work in a conference system – possibly it’s two per conference guaranteed with two highest thirds going through – but I don’t think it’s necessarily true that would lead to more entertaining finals races.

So all in all I think this system would be a political and practical headache to implement for a dubious benefit.

The broken AFL fixture - and the solution

I’ll have to buy this book.

I’m a bit dubious about tracking shared experience. I can definitely see why it’s valuable, but it would correlate with so many other positives it would be hard to assess it in isolation.

I don’t think there’s much to be gained from looking at the teams with high shared experience and seeing how successful they are. Success will probably lead to shared experience just as much as the other way around, and diminishing returns will kick in at some point.

It might have some utility trying to figure out why certain teams underperform.

Book review: Footballistics

I’m pretty sure that GWS Essendon game is in Sydney, rather than Canberra.

I’d have thought the Giants would start solid favourites, but it wouldn’t surprise me too much if the Bombers won.

AFL ladder predictions: Round 1

Your definition of ‘clearly’ is entirely subjective, Kandeepan. And you wind up excluding those minor premiers who performed less well than the Tigers, and including those who performed significantly better. It’s a methodology that will always skew in favour of a particular outcome. You’re not making any similar exclusions on your comparison groups.

It comes across as rather contrived.

Why the stats predict a Richmond premiership next year

This very much looks like the writer has engineered the criteria to get the results they want.

Limiting the reigning minor premiers to those that finished at least a game clear on top of the ladder excludes Adelaide, Fremantle and Sydney just from the most recent three years, none of whom of course went on to win the flag. I don’t know what it works out to over 30 years but I imagine it substantially changes the results, and it’s just an entirely arbitrary inclusion made by the writer.

Setting a lower limit on a sample group but not an upper limit is generally a bad idea. There’s no reason to exclude the above three teams but include Geelong in 2008, who finished four games clear of second place, failed to win the flag, but of course won the flag the next year.

Why the stats predict a Richmond premiership next year

I’d forgotten that too.

McLachlan is certainly very different to Demetriou. I understand the need to build consensus but McLachlan seems to see it as an excuse to making informed, solid decisions.

The winners, the losers and other insights into the 2019 AFL fixtures

I had forgotten that. I’m probably less inclined to notice when they schedule it so fewer Suns fans will attend.

The winners, the losers and other insights into the 2019 AFL fixtures

I’d pretty much discounted the idea of that leaked round 2 fixture as being genuine, because it seemed so unlikely the AFL would schedule the Queensland Derby for Sunday twilight, and hold it at 4.40pm local time, which would be 5.40pm AEDT.

But perhaps I’m giving the AFL too much credit. It does rather feel that their administration is becoming less and less competent, relying on the clubs to save them from embarrassing mistakes.

The winners, the losers and other insights into the 2019 AFL fixtures

Sorry, the agreement was signed between the AFL and the Brisbane Football Club.

AFL reveals fixture for 2019

That’s true about Fitzroy playing out of the Whitten Oval in their last couple of years, but the agreement actually mentioned Optus Oval (Princes Park) specifically, and not Whitten Oval.

After a bit of googling it turns out the Whitten Oval ceased to be a regular AFL ground in Fitzroy’s last season. The Dogs played a farewell game there the following year, and that was that.

AFL reveals fixture for 2019

Yep, the agreement that was signed between the AFL and the Fitzroy Football Club. It’s a short document, and one of the few requirements was that the Brisbane Lions would play at least six games a year in Melbourne. More specifically, at Princes Park and the MCG.

Obviously that can no longer be followed literally but it really wouldn’t take much to follow it in principle. But the AFL simply ignore it.

AFL reveals fixture for 2019

Yeah, I’m being a bit too gloomy. We’d have to give ourselves a chance in almost all games. We seem to go well against Hodge and Fgan’s former team.

If I was more confident about the Lions’ prospects I might be quite excited by the draw. Almost every game looks potentially interesting. But mostly I’d like to make sure we push ourselves out of the bottom four.

AFL reveals fixture for 2019

To be honest I was hoping the Lions would get a helping hand from the fixture, but that hasn’t really worked out. Double ups against Hawthorn, North, Port, the Dogs and of course the Suns. No home games against anyone else from last year’s bottom six, so there aren’t going to be any easy wins. Although arguably only maybe a couple where we are no chance at all.

Of course, you can’t really tell how tough a fixture is until the season is over. It’s looking like a pretty even year.

Once again, the AFL happily ignores the merger agreement to play six games a year in Melbourne, sending the Lions off to Tasmania and Ballarat for matches against Victorian teams.

AFL reveals fixture for 2019

Yeah, it’s a very minor point. I don’t know why I bothered, to be honest.

As Paul points out, Frost’s health is more important.

Brisbane defender Frost calls time on AFL career at just 26

Yeah, I’m really not going to bother correcting mistakes that come up because DF misrepresents my posts. I wouldn’t have time for anything else. I’ve made no judgement at all about Hamling and don’t need to be lectured on him.

Without even bothering to look at Blakeley’s DE, it’s almost certain to have improved as Lyon had him playing more of an outside role and there is a strong correlation between proportion of uncontested possessions and DE, for obvious reasons.

‘Nope nope nope’. Far out.

Why your club will make the top eight in 2019

Maybe he’s overpaid at the Suns. Maybe Dew sees him as a bad influence. Maybe they have someone else in mind for that list spot. Maybe all three.

I don’t see what difference it makes whether Frost’s retirement was a complete surprise. They might well have pushed him for an earlier answer, although they probably shouldn’t. They can’t force him to give up a year of his contract. He can retire whenever he likes, trade period or not.

This looks pretty simple to me. I’m not sure what alternative Macca and Col have in mind but the Lions doing something elaborate and dodgy to avoid having to trade a late pick for Lyons seems very unlikely.

Why your club will make the top eight in 2019

I think it’s simply that the Suns were really keen to move him on, and the Lions didn’t have a spare list spot for Lyons until Frost retired.

Why your club will make the top eight in 2019