The Roar
The Roar


Roar Guru

Joined July 2011









Yeah his whole shtick was that everyone but him was deluded.

Carlton veteran Dale Thomas announces AFL retirement

Something of a thankless job for Adrian, having to write this article.

It’s a very strange feeling for the Lions to be the centre of attention. Just over a year ago when we last played the Cats we barely got mentioned in the ‘expert’ tips, while the Demons and Swans were both involved in critical games that would shape the finals.

The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 19

I must admit I’m finding it very hard to focus on any of the other games.

Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans: AFL Friday night forecast

“Has a side on top with two rounds left ever flown so easily under the spotlight?”
Probably the Bears in 1996. They were on top going into the final round and I don’t think anyone took them seriously as premiership contenders.
Fremantle in 2015 would be another example.

The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 22

For my own curiosity, Peter, how much of your pro-Cats talk this week is wishful thinking, and how much is genuine confidence?

The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 22

I’ve watched quite a lot of both teams in the past few weeks, and it’s just chalk and cheese at the moment. GWS are not playing good footy and the Dogs are.

When Western get their fast movement game going they’re very difficult to stop, and I just can’t see the Giants managing to do that right now.

The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 22

When in doubt tip the home team, I suppose.

I’m not doing any footy tipping but I’d have no hesitation tipping the Dogs this week.

The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 22

You’re probably right, but I reckon strange things could happen in this year’s finals. Everyone is beatable.

Hawks veteran Roughead's farewell game secure

I think Port would be mad to sack Ken Hinkley, and my guess is the speculation around his job largely comes from the poorly expressed comments of David Koch.

To me, Port look to have a bright future.

The AFL coaching massacre isn't done yet

I honestly think they should consider inquiring about doing an off-season training camp there.

The AFL's alternative scheduling in 2019 is a success

To be honest I was surprised how many turned out.
I’m afraid I didn’t manage to get to the end. Not even close.

The highs and lows of a long AFL season

You’d think Brisbane would be strong favourites against the Cats. Geelong are definitely capable of a big performance though.

I don’t know what to expect from Richmond – West Coast. Both teams appear to be going along okay without always looking convincing. Obviously Richmond have a great record at the MCG, but the Eagles have won both their games there this season, and not against mugs.

On paper I’d say West Coast are a slightly stronger team but ultimately it feels like we just don’t really know enough. And when in doubt, I generally back the home team.

The AFL's top four go to war in Round 22

One of my favourite things about footy is how so many premiers over the last 20 years appeared to have been out of contention at times during their premiership season.

Brisbane in 2001 were dead at 3-5. Geelong had a similar record in 2007. Richmond lost four in a row in 2017.

It is more unusual though to find teams that go through a form slump in the second half of the year and recover to win the flag, like Geelong and Collingwood will have to do. Arguably Brisbane in 2003.

But there really isn’t much of a gap between first and eighth; some teams are just a bit more consistent than others. No results in the finals would truly be a surprise.

I reckon Adrian’s views on the snow game are those you could only have if you watched it on TV. It was *very* cold. And while five minutes of snow was a novelty for us Canberrans, standing around for a couple of hours getting buffeted by sub-zero winds was not. It should not have been scheduled for a Friday night in early August and hopefully it won’t happen again.

The highs and lows of a long AFL season

Macca, to find examples of you shamelessly manipulating stats to suit your wishful opinions, all we need to do is lift our eyeline a couple of centimetres.

Are Essendon actually in a funk, or did we all just fall for the hype?

“I do love the way people try to dismiss stats as being able to be manipulated just because they don’t suit their faith based opinion.”

If I didn’t know Macca I’d assume this was self-referential irony.

Are Essendon actually in a funk, or did we all just fall for the hype?

Hawthorn probably won’t lose, but there’s still quite a lot at stake in this game.

The Suns have had three losses by 90+ points in the last six matches. If the Hawks can manage a similar margin it puts their percentage right up there with the Power and the Crows. They’d probably still need to beat the Eagles away, but West Coast aren’t invulnerable.

My understanding is that Roughead has been struggling when playing forward in the VFL, and presumably he’ll play forward against the Suns. It’s not exaggerating to suggest that his presence might cost the Hawks three or four goals, nor is it an exaggeration to say that might be the difference between making finals or not.

I really do approve of the sentiment, and I’m sure this is hugely popular with the playing group and the fans, but in my opinion they should have stuck with a team first approach.

Hawks veteran Roughead's farewell game secure

I don’t think they’ll schedule a Queensland derby for round one.

There’s probably a solid chance the Lions play away to GWS at Manuka in one of the early rounds next year, maybe round one. They’ve never actually played there, which is a bit of an oddity when the reserves have to go to Canberra once a season.

What Round 1 of the 2020 AFL season should look like

Looks like Josh has Brisbane beating Geelong, Richmond beating Brisbane, West Coast beating Richmond.

All reasonable, but as he points out himself it almost seems a waste of time doing a ladder predictor when any of those results changes and it drastically changes the top 4.

We have so little form on the current top 4 playing each other; there’ve only been three match-ups involving these teams all season, and only one since round 6. Brisbane last played another top 4 team in the first round. Richmond’s only matchup this season was a 67 point loss to the Cats at the MCG.

According to one betting agency, after the Suns the biggest outsiders of the round are the Eagles at $2.40. Incredible to have so many close matchups at this stage of the season.

One disappointment is that the only fully dead rubber – Demons v Swans – happens to be the Friday night game. At least someone will snap a losing streak.

Five talking points from AFL Round 21

And swirling.

Greater Western Sydney vs Hawthorn: Friday night forecast

Manuka is roughly normal length, but very wide. Similar to the MCG.
The big difference to the MCG is the way the wind gets a hold of the ball without the protection of the stands. It is a tough ground to play in windy weather.
EDIT: Excuse me, this was intended to be a response to Mango Jack’s comment.

Greater Western Sydney vs Hawthorn: Friday night forecast

Saints-Dockers is the most interesting match of the round, for mine. St Kilda had one very impressive performance against the Dogs, but otherwise have largely looked like a bottom six team. Even though Freo’s form has been similarly sparse I think their best is a lot better than St Kilda’s. Even in Melbourne I’d call this a 50-50.

GWS-Hawthorn is going to be a mess of a game. Neither side is playing particularly well right now, and in one of the dumber bits of scheduling they play each other in the coldest city in the country, in the coldest time of the year, at night. It’ll probably be close and low scoring. The Giants should grind out another win, but they are not at all in good form approaching finals and this probably won’t be a game to get their free-flowing, attacking footy going.

The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 21

Yeah, it’s amazing to be three weeks out and talking about sixth place as a worst case scenario.

However this season ends when we take stock and look back we’ll shake our heads in amazement at how well this year has gone.

Why the Brisbane Lions will win the flag

Fifth maybe. I can’t imagine Collingwood winning all of their remaining games.

But you’re absolutely right. Lots still to happen.

Why the Brisbane Lions will win the flag

Jesus, what a terribly stupid tweet from McGowan.

Of course people don’t understand how Champion Data work. They are deliberately opaque. That’s the problem.

Footy fans aren't worthy of access to stats? Give us a spell, AFL

And now they play each other.

Obviously it’s likely Brisbane will win comfortably, but the extent of the margin might make a big difference for finals positioning. Gold Coast can still have a real impact on the season by doggedly hanging in and preventing a blowout.

Five talking points from AFL Round 20

That Sydney-GWS game was really hard to watch. I didn’t come away feeling anything good about either team.

It seems incredible that the Giants could continue to narrowly win these poor games and still fall into the top four. I suppose you could say the same about the Lions but I feel they’re playing better footy.

On the Bombers, I don’t think they’ve ever quite gotten past the confusion and listlessness that was so obvious at the beginning of the season. Sure, they’ve improved a lot since then, but it still looks like there are patches in games when it’s just too easy for the opposition to move the ball around. To be fair, this time it was the super performances of Robbie Gray and a handful of other Power forwards that did the damage.

The wins by Adelaide, Freo and the Power prove what we all know but often forget; the rumours about internal strife and discontent are more often than not an oafish media projecting narratives onto a team’s form.

Five talking points from AFL Round 20