Why is Eden Park so hard to win at? - The Roar Rugby Podcast
The Reds face a tough assignment this weekend playing the Blues. Alex Hodgman gives Christy Doran and Matt Toomua an insight into repping NZ…
Finally, a semi-decent weekend where we don’t look like we predict from cave drawings.
Super Rugby Round 8 Predicted vs Actual | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Season accuracy: 35 from 59 (59.3%) | Season margin of error: 13.8 | |||
Weekend accuracy: 4 from 6 (66.7%) | Weekend margin error: 16.17 | |||
Teams | Actual score | predicted score | correct | margin of error |
Rebels | 24 | 24 | No | 19 |
Stormers | 41 | 22 | ||
Crusaders | 43 | 37 | Yes | 11 |
Highlanders | 17 | 22 | ||
Bulls | 32 | 45 | Yes | 5 |
Reds | 17 | 35 | ||
Chiefs | 33 | 35 | Yes | 10 |
Blues | 29 | 21 | ||
Sharks | 17 | 35 | No | 42 |
Jaguares | 51 | 15 | ||
Brumbies | 31 | 20 | Yes | 10 |
Lions | 20 | 19 |
So, here are the algorithm’s predictions for the next round of Super Rugby.
Super Rugby Round 9 Predictions | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Season accuracy: 35 correct from 59: 59.3% | Season margin error: 13.80 | |||
Teams | Predicted Score | Chance of Winning | Prediction | |
Chiefs | 36 | 69.60% | Chiefs win by 8 | |
Lions | 28 | 28.60% | ||
Sunwolves | 20 | 13.30% | Hurricanes win by 15 | |
Hurricanes | 35 | 85.10% | ||
Sharks | 32 | 80.20% | Sharks win by 12 | |
Reds | 20 | 18.30% | ||
Highlanders | 34 | 78.30% | Highlanders win by 11 | |
Blues | 23 | 20.20% | ||
Waratahs | 36 | 79.10% | Waratahs win by 11 | |
Rebels | 25 | 19.30% | ||
Stormers | 29 | 67.20% | Stormers win by 6 | |
Brumbies | 23 | 31% |
The Chiefs are three wins to the good after beating the in-form Blues (yes you heard that right, the Blues are in form) in a tight encounter 33-29.
How will they go against their South African opponents? The Lions haven’t been great recently, losing two on the bounce, first suffering a heavy defeat against the Sharks (5-42 at home) and then losing to the Brumbies in Australia last week.
We have had a look at the previous results between these two sides.
Head to head
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chiefs | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 368 | 264 | 70% | 36.8 | 36.8 |
Lions | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 264 | 368 | 30% | 26.4 | 26.4 |
Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
---|---|---|---|---|
3/5/2016 | Chiefs | 32 | 36 | Lions |
5/3/2014 | Chiefs | 38 | 8 | Lions |
5/5/2012 | Chiefs | 34 | 21 | Lions |
4/23/2011 | Lions | 30 | 34 | Chiefs |
2/19/2010 | Lions | 65 | 72 | Chiefs |
4/4/2009 | Chiefs | 36 | 29 | Lions |
5/10/2008 | Lions | 33 | 27 | Chiefs |
3/16/2007 | Chiefs | 34 | 7 | Lions |
2/17/2006 | Lions | 21 | 16 | Chiefs |
4/15/2005 | Chiefs | 45 | 14 | Lions |
The algorithm has the Chiefs to win by eight at home. Fingers crossed for them.
The Sunwolves have home advantage for Round 10 but have had mixed results when playing in familiar territory.
Here we can see the recent games the Sunwolves have hosted. Not great. However, it is worth noting they play in a variety of ‘home’ locations so perhaps the actual advantage that is inferred by playing at home is lessened.
Sunwolves last ten games at home
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sunwolves | 11 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 296 | 388 | 27% | 26.91 |
Opposition | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 388 | 296 | 73% | 35.27 |
Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
---|---|---|---|---|
3/16/2019 | Sunwolves | 31 | 34 | Reds |
2/23/2019 | Sunwolves | 30 | 31 | Waratahs |
5/19/2018 | Sunwolves | 26 | 23 | Stormers |
5/12/2018 | Sunwolves | 63 | 28 | Reds |
4/14/2018 | Sunwolves | 10 | 24 | Blues |
4/7/2018 | Sunwolves | 29 | 50 | Waratahs |
3/24/2018 | Sunwolves | 10 | 61 | Chiefs |
3/3/2018 | Sunwolves | 17 | 37 | Rebels |
2/24/2018 | Sunwolves | 25 | 32 | Brumbies |
7/15/2017 | Sunwolves | 48 | 21 | Blues |
5/27/2017 | Sunwolves | 7 | 47 | Cheetahs |
The Hurricanes come off a narrow 28-31 win against the Highlanders, taking their win tally to five. However, they haven’t been the most consistent team this season and will come into this game as strong favourites winning their last meeting 43-15 in Wellington.
The algorithm has the Hurricanes to win by 14.
The Sharks got mauled last weekend away from home against the Jaguares.
Although the Argentinian side have been playing well enough, few will have seen the 51-17 scoreline coming.
The Reds have struggled to win away from home, only winning two games outside their home ground in the last ten they’ve played. They also lost last weekend (at home) to the Bulls.
Reds away form
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reds | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 234 | 349 | 20% | 23.4 |
Opposition | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 349 | 234 | 80% | 34.9 |
Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
---|---|---|---|---|
3/16/2019 | Sunwolves | 31 | 34 | Reds |
3/9/2019 | Waratahs | 28 | 17 | Reds |
2/22/2019 | Highlanders | 36 | 31 | Reds |
6/29/2018 | Blues | 39 | 16 | Reds |
5/18/2018 | Hurricanes | 38 | 34 | Reds |
5/12/2018 | Sunwolves | 63 | 28 | Reds |
4/14/2018 | Waratahs | 37 | 16 | Reds |
4/7/2018 | Brumbies | 45 | 21 | Reds |
3/24/2018 | Stormers | 25 | 19 | Reds |
3/17/2018 | Jaguares | 7 | 18 | Reds |
With the Reds away in this round, the algorithm has the Sharks to win by 12.
The Highlanders lost to the Hurricanes in Round 8 and then lost to the Crusaders in Round 9.
Both are good teams that there is no shame in losing to, but given the Highlanders are currently bottom of the NZ conference they will be looking for a big win here. They need to grab maximum points and make sure they don’t lose to another Kiwi opposition in the process.
The Blues will take some confidence from their win over the Waratahs in Round 8. They also played well enough in their last round loss to the Chiefs. That game could have gone either way.
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Highlanders | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 289 | 230 | 70% | 28.9 |
Blues | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 230 | 289 | 30% | 23 |
Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
---|---|---|---|---|
3/22/2019 | Blues | 33 | 26 | Highlanders |
4/20/2018 | Blues | 16 | 34 | Highlanders |
2/23/2018 | Highlanders | 41 | 34 | Blues |
4/8/2017 | Highlanders | 26 | 20 | Blues |
3/11/2017 | Blues | 12 | 16 | Highlanders |
2/26/2016 | Blues | 33 | 31 | Highlanders |
6/12/2015 | Blues | 7 | 44 | Highlanders |
4/18/2015 | Highlanders | 30 | 24 | Blues |
3/29/2014 | Blues | 30 | 12 | Highlanders |
2/22/2014 | Highlanders | 29 | 21 | Blues |
History is clearly on the Highlanders’ side. The algorithm has them to win by 13 at home.
The Waratahs were rocked in Round 8 losing to the Blues, a trend which dates back to 2016, both home and away.
Blues wins since 2016
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Blues | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 111 | 100% | 32.5 |
Waratahs | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 111 | 130 | 0% | 27.75 |
Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
---|---|---|---|---|
4/6/2019 | Blues | 32 | 29 | Waratahs |
5/5/2018 | Waratahs | 21 | 24 | Blues |
5/6/2017 | Waratahs | 33 | 40 | Blues |
7/15/2016 | Blues | 34 | 28 | Waratahs |
The Rebels also are in damage control for this round after losing at home to the Stormers 24-41.
We have had a look at the previous matches between these two teams below.
Head to head the last ten games
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Waratahs | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 332 | 217 | 80% | 33.2 |
Rebels | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 217 | 332 | 20% | 21.7 |
Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
---|---|---|---|---|
6/29/2018 | Rebels | 26 | 31 | Waratahs |
3/18/2018 | Waratahs | 51 | 27 | Rebels |
5/21/2017 | Waratahs | 50 | 23 | Rebels |
3/24/2017 | Rebels | 25 | 32 | Waratahs |
4/3/2016 | Waratahs | 17 | 21 | Rebels |
4/25/2015 | Waratahs | 18 | 16 | Rebels |
2/20/2015 | Rebels | 28 | 38 | Waratahs |
5/23/2014 | Rebels | 19 | 41 | Waratahs |
3/21/2014 | Waratahs | 32 | 8 | Rebels |
5/24/2013 | Rebels | 24 | 22 | Waratahs |
The Waratahs have clearly dominated the recent fixtures, with the last Rebels win coming back in 2016. The algorithm agrees and has the Waratahs to win by 11.
The Stormers played Rebels, who sit on top of the Australian conference, last weekend and won handsomely.
However, the Brumbies also won against last year’s finalists – the Lions – 31-20. Good credentials for both sides.
How’s this game going to go? We have had a look at the previous results between these two sides.
Head to head the last ten games
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stormers | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 201 | 196 | 50% | 20.1 |
Brumbies | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 196 | 201 | 50% | 19.6 |
Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
---|---|---|---|---|
3/19/2016 | Stormers | 31 | 11 | Brumbies |
6/20/2015 | Stormers | 19 | 39 | Brumbies |
5/9/2015 | Stormers | 25 | 24 | Brumbies |
3/22/2014 | Brumbies | 25 | 15 | Stormers |
3/23/2013 | Stormers | 35 | 22 | Brumbies |
5/28/2011 | Brumbies | 3 | 16 | Stormers |
2/26/2010 | Stormers | 17 | 19 | Brumbies |
4/11/2009 | Brumbies | 17 | 10 | Stormers |
5/3/2008 | Stormers | 20 | 10 | Brumbies |
3/9/2007 | Brumbies | 26 | 13 | Stormers |
The history is tight, with both sides winning equally. However, most have been won by the home side. The algorithm is going with the home side again and has the Stormers by seven.
What do you think? Leave a comment below and give us your thoughts.