Opinion
Carlton slipped out of the top four on Sunday after a narrow defeat against the old enemy Collingwood, but they didn’t lose an admirer in me. And it shows, realistically, where they are at.
The Blues have improved significantly in season 2022 under new coach Michael Voss and have cemented themselves as a genuine finals-calibre side in the first 11 weeks of the season.
But they’re still a few players away from a genuine premiership tilt and the absence of two superstars in Jacob Weitering and Harry McKay is going to test out the Blues’ system and spirit for the first time under Voss’ tenure.
Charlie Curnow having an injury-free run at it is a dream for the Blues as he leads the Coleman Medal at the halfway point of the season. It was a glaring issue at the beginning of the season for those who thought he wouldn’t get on the park again.
It is now an issue again, but this time the absence of McKay is what is proving to be the problem regarding a second option in that forward line.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
On Sunday, there was no other option. Aside from Curnow, Matthew Owies was the only other multiple goal scorer with both goals coming in the last quarter.
Jack Silvagni tried but in all honestly, he lacks both height and talent to be a damaging forward. Patrick Cripps had to play elements of the game in the ruck and never looked likely, and the smalls Jesse Motlop and Corey Durdin were unsighted.
Without both the key forwards in the side, the forward half lacks potency, and it’s one of the reasons why they are still most likely a year away from a premiership challenge.
The defence has been okay without being fantastic this season and Jacob Weitering is arguably the All Australian full back at this point in the year.
However, without him, it’s going to be a struggle. At the start of the season, I cited that a lack of a second key defender (and third to an extent) would be the Blues’ downfall.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
While Weitering, Adam Saad and Sam Docherty have held down the fort in brilliant fashion, this latest injury is a dagger to the heart of the Blues.
Lewis Young is going to have to play as the main key defender and get the job on the likes of Peter Wright (25 goals), Tom Lynch (31 goals), Matt Taberner (14 goals), and Max King (32 goals) over the next month.
And with injuries to the likes of Mitch McGovern, Oscar McDonald, and Luke Parks, it is more likely than not that Lachie Plowman will now have to play on the second key forward, which will include Jack Riewoldt (21 goals), Rory Lobb (17 goals), and Tim Membrey (18 goals) over the coming month.
The one saving grace for the Blues is that they have made their system all about them winning clearance and then controlling the ball, and the superstar midfield is still near full strength.
Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, Adam Cerra, George Hewett, and Matthew Kennedy (depending on fitness) are facing their most critical month of football in the navy blue colours. They simply must dominate the contest and control the football, or else it could be a very long month for the club.
This also stretches to the pressure inside 50.
The likes of Owies, Durdin, Motlop, and Silvagni need to apply a huge amount of pressure when opposition teams are trying to come out of their back 50.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Obviously, this can also help provide goals from turnover, but maybe more importantly, reduce the quality of ball coming in to their own back 50, which will help the likes of Young, Plowman, and Docherty.
I think the Blues are here to stay and will compete in the finals for the next few years, but the next month is what separates good teams from emerging great teams.
If they can take three wins out of their next four games against Essendon, Richmond, Fremantle, and St Kilda, the draw really opens up for them with West Coast, Geelong, Greater Western Sydney, and Adelaide awaiting in their next four.
Lose three of them and all of a sudden, they are back with the pack and fighting for their spot in September again.
It’s big boy month for the Blues, as Richmond coach Damien Hardwick would say, and we will soon find out whether they’ll sink or swim.
My thoughts? I think they’re a top-six team who are a year or two away from competing and that the next month will probably prove that.
But the beauty of football is that I could be very wrong and come away from Round 16 thinking they’re a premiership chance. Let’s wait and see!
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