Australia will be watching with bated breath on Thursday night to see if Ash Barty can become the first local man or woman since Lleyton Hewitt in 2005 to reach an Australian Open final.

The other women’s semi pits second-time semi-finalist, Danielle Collins, up against Polish seventh seed Iga Swiatek, who will be hoping to reach her second major final after previously claiming her maiden Grand Slam title at the 2020 French Open.

For the first time, both women’s semi-finals will be contested on a Thursday evening, a move from previous years when they were both contested in the afternoon.

This means that the first men’s semi-final will now be played on Friday afternoon, shifting from its Thursday night semi-final slot so as to give the two prospective finalists a close-to equal amount of time in which to recover and prepare for the Sunday night decider.

That match will be contested between Italian seventh seed Matteo Berrettini and Spanish veteran Rafael Nadal, who will start odds-on favourite to qualify for his sixth Australian Open final and shoot for a second title, 13 years after winning his first in 2009.

In years past, the winner of that match would have two full days off, and therefore a 24-hour advantage on whoever would win the second men’s semi-final, thus creating an unfair advantage on the other finalist.

Now, both men’s semi-finals will be played on Friday – with the second men’s semi-final remaining in its evening timeslot. This latter semi will be between Greek fourth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and reigning US Open champion Daniil Medvedev.

Let’s now get to previewing each of the women’s and men’s semi-finals.

[1] Ash Barty (AUS) vs Madison Keys (USA)

Thursday, January 27, 2021
7:30pm
Rod Laver Arena

Head-to-head
All matches: Barty 2-1
At the Majors: Tied 1-all
Last meeting: Barty won 6-3, 7-5, quarter-finals, 2019 French Open.

Barty will carry the hopes of a nation on her shoulders when she takes on Keys in the first match of the women’s semi-final double header.

While the Ipswich native has been in ominous form over the past fortnight and has been going about her business as has been expected of her, she has also seen several of her title contenders crash out of the tournament progressively.

Her would-be fourth round opponent, Naomi Osaka, and would-be quarter-final opponent, Maria Sakkari, both crashed out before their projected matches against Barty, with the Queenslander instead defeating their respective victors Amanda Anisimova and Jessica Pegula in straight sets.

Now, as was the case in 2020 when Sofia Kenin stopped the 26-year-old in her tracks, another American stands in the way of Barty and a spot in the Australian Open final.

Awaiting on the other side of the net will be Madison Keys, who has enjoyed a hot start to 2021, winning eleven matches and matching her entire win tally from the previous year alone.

En route to her fifth major semi, Keys has accounted for some other major upsets in the top half of the draw, defeating 11th seed Kenin in the first round, Spanish eighth seed Paula Badosa in round four and reigning French Open champion Barbora Krejcikova in the quarters.

This will be the Rock Island native’s second Australian Open semi-final, having lost to Serena Williams at this exact same stage seven years ago, and as was the case then will be facing a world number one in this semi-final.

It is a clash of the Adelaide champions, with Barty winning the first iteration of the tournament in the first week of the new season and Keys winning the second iteration a week later.

Both have previously traded wins at Roland Garros, with Keys winning a first-round clash in 2017 when Barty was on the comeback trail having taken a sabbatical from the sport in 2015-16, before the Australian returned serve with a quarter-final win on her way to the title in 2019.

The Queenslander also won a Fed Cup tie against Keys in Brisbane in 2019; thus, tonight’s semi-final will be their fourth career meeting, and third at a Major.

While Keys is on a career resurgence after a mediocre couple of years, Barty’s hot form should see her win through to a third Major final, and first at the Australian Open.

Prediction
Barty in straight sets.

[27] Danielle Collins (USA) vs [7] Iga Swiatek (POL)

Thursday, January 27, 2021
Following the Barty vs Keys semi-final
Rod Laver Arena

Head-to-head
All matches: Swiatek 1-0
Last meeting: Swiatek won 6-2, 3-0 ret., quarter-finals, 2021 Adelaide International

The stakes will be highest in Danielle Collins’ case should Madison Keys cause an unlikely upset in the preceding semi-final, as she would have the chance to set up an unlikely all-American final, which would be the first at the Australian Open since 2017.

However, it’s Polish seventh seed Swiatek who will start favourite to reach her second Major final, and if she does so will set up what promises to be a blockbuster final against fellow Major champion Barty on Saturday night.

The 2020 French Open winner raced through her first three matches without dropping a set, but had to come back from the brink against Sorana Cirstea and Kaia Kanepi in the fourth round and quarter-finals respectively, coming from a set down to defeat them.

This has seen her reach her first semi-final at the Australian Open, and just her second Major semi-final overall, following her run to the title at Roland Garros less than two years ago, where she defeated Sofia Kenin in the final.

For Collins, this is familiar territory, the American having gone this far three years ago where she lost to Petra Kvitova in straight sets.

The 28-year-old cashed in on a draw that opened up in the third quarter, which saw the likes of Anett Kontaveit, Emma Raducanu, Garbine Muguruza and Simona Halep all crash out before the quarter-finals.

Her recent experience in reaching the business end of Major tournaments proved to be the difference in her straight-sets win over Frenchwoman Alize Cornet, who was contesting her first Major quarter-final in her 63rd appearance at 32 years of age.

Swiatek goes in as the sentimental favourite, having won their only previous clash in Adelaide last year when Collins was forced to retire halfway through the second set due to injury.

Prediction
Swiatek in straight sets.

[7] Matteo Berrettini (ITA) vs [6] Rafael Nadal (ESP)

Friday, January 28, 2021
Time TBC
Rod Laver Arena

Head-to-head
All matches: Nadal 1-0
Last meeting: Nadal won 7-6 (8-6), 6-4, 6-1, semi-finals, 2019 US Open.

As the only former major champion left in the draw, sixth seed Nadal will start a prohibitive favourite to reach his sixth Australian Open final when he comes up against Italian firebrand Berrettini in the daytime men’s semi-final.

The Spaniard is now in the box seat to assume the outright men’s record for the most Grand Slam singles titles, a tie he currently holds with career rivals Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer (20 each), neither of whom were able to participate at Melbourne Park this year.

Before that, though, he will need to quell the threat that is seventh seed Berrettini, who has played through two gruelling five-set matches in which he won the first two sets, then dropped the next two before prevailing in the last.

In the third round, he escaped the threat that was teen sensation Carlos Alcaraz, winning the final set after the young Spaniard crumbled under pressure in the tiebreak, while in the quarters he held off a stern challenge from Gael Monfils to win in five.

In the second set of the match against Monfils, Berrettini held his nerve to win in the fourth game, which featured ten deuces and lasted just over 20 minutes.

It proved crucial as he then went on to win it before the French showman pegged back two sets to force a fifth and deciding set, which the Italian won, as he did at the 2019 US Open.

As was also the case at Flushing Meadows just under three years ago, the 25-year-old will next face Rafael Nadal in what will be his second hard-court Major semi, and first at the Australian Open.

The Spaniard also endured a five-set quarter-final rollercoaster against Denis Shapovalov, winning the first two sets then dropping the next two, raising fears of a second consecutive quarter-final collapse from two sets up at Melbourne Park, having lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas at this stage last year.

However, the King of Clay held his nerve to win 6-3 in the final set to advance to his seventh semi-final at the Australian Open, where he has a 5-1 record (with the only loss being a straight-sets hiding by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in his first semi-final here, in 2008).

Other than that impressive semi-final record in Melbourne, he also has one other advantage up his sleeve – it’s that he defeated Berrettini the only other time they met, which was in the semi-finals of the 2019 US Open, which he went on to win for a fourth time.

Since then, though, Berrettini has rocketed into the top ten, and reached the Wimbledon final last year where he lost to Novak Djokovic after winning the first set.

In fact, Djokovic was the only man to beat the Italian at the Majors last year – this does not include the Australian Open, where he was forced to withdraw before his fourth round clash against Tsitsipas due to an abdominal strain.

In the end, Rafael Nadal’s experience and desire to claim the outright men’s record for the most Major titles should see him win through to a 29th Major final, which is two short of the 31 finals that Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have made.

Prediction
Nadal in four sets.

[4] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) vs [2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS)

Friday, January 28, 2021
Not before 7:30pm
Rod Laver Arena

Head-to-head
All matches: Medvedev 6-2
Last meeting: Tsitsipas won 6-3, 7-6 (7-3), 7-5, quarter-finals, 2021 French Open

The second men’s semi-final is a repeat of last year’s corresponding match between Greek fourth seed Tsitsipas and reigning US Open champion Medvedev

For Tsitsipas the chance lies to advance to his first final at Melbourne Park, where he would be lined up against either Berrettini, whom he was due to face in the fourth round last year only for the Italian to withdraw due to injury, or Nadal, whom he defeated from two sets to love down in the quarter-finals, also last year.

The Greek star has proven a revelation at the Australian Open in recent years, defeating Roger Federer in the fourth round in 2019 to reach his first Major quarter-final, while last year he lost to Daniil Medvedev in the semis after his five-set heroics against Nadal in the quarters.

After being taken to five sets against Taylor Fritz in the fourth round, the 23-year-old was at his ruthless best against Italian youngster Jannik Sinner in the quarter-finals, winning in straight sets in what was his shortest match of the tournament thus far this year.

Standing in the way of him and a second Major final to go with reaching the French Open final last year is second seed Medvedev, who edged out Canadian ninth seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in a near-five hour epic that finished at 12:30am this morning.

The Russian’s tournament appeared over when he fell behind by two sets to love, before he fought back into the contest to force a deciding set, claiming a pivotal third set tiebreak and fighting off a match point in the fourth set in the process.

While he has beaten Tsitsipas in six out of eight encounters, including a win in the semi-final last year, it was the Greek star who won their most recent encounter, a quarter-final clash at Roland Garros last year en-route to reaching the final which he then lost to Novak Djokovic.

Prediction
Daniil Medvedev in four sets.