How to boost the number of tries scored in rugby

By The Crowd / Roar Guru

How do we boost the number of tries scored in rugby and reduce the importance of kicked points in deciding the results of matches?

One obvious answer might be to increase the points value of a try and reduce the value of kicked points (penalty and dropped goals) accordingly. The evidence from the only regular annual international tournament played over the last 60 years is inconclusive however, as the graphs below show.

As can clearly be seen, the average number of points scored per game in the 5 Nations /6 Nations has been growing steadily over the decades. The graph indeed shows that there was a spike in the number of points scored per match in the mid 90s but in the long run, the path follows a steady line. More points are being scored per game every year. The next question is: how are they being scored?

The graph of average tries per match is interesting. It reveals that although there is great variation from season to season, there is no long term upward trend in the number of tries being scored. More points are being scored, but more tries are not.

Nor can the two increases in the value of the try account for the sharply rising points per match total. If that really were the case, the graph of average points per match would have experienced two “step changes” in 1972 and 1993. In fact, irony of ironies, the number of tries scored in the immediate wake of both increases in value of the try was sharply reduced for a few years.

What is noticeable is that there was a sharp increase in both points scored and tries scored in the late 1990s/early 200s. The points total has started to slip back in the latter part of the decade; so too has the number of tries. How do we explain all this?

First off, to explain the steadily increasing number of points scored in matches over the full 60 years I would argue that better ball technology, better field drainage at top levels, more enclosed stadiums and greater emphasis on coaching and practising have all contributed to more accurate goal kicking. When Don Clarke kicked six penalty goals for New Zealand to defeat the Lions’ four tries in a 1959 test it was an astonishing kicking performance. Today, if a goal kicker missed more than two out of six, his place would be in jeopardy.

It’s not that they didn’t realise back then that accurate goal kicking was key to winning a match. It was back in the 1960s when the great sage Ray McLoughlin argued that the way to pick a winning test team was first to pick your three best goalkickers and to select the remaining twelve from those least likely to give away penalties in their own half!

How do we explain the drop in tries being scored in the three seasons from 1972-1974 after the value of a try was increased? I would argue that it was the closeness of the competition in those years that saw fewer tries. The teams were fairly evenly matched and few matches ended in ‘cricket scores’.

Remember that in 1972, the championship wasn’t completed because Wales and Scotland didn’t play Ireland. In 1973, there was a five way tie with each team winning all their home matches and in 1974, Ireland won the title outright with only five points out of a possible eight.

This was the time when European rugby was strong, the Lions had won in New Zealand in 1971 and comprehensively in South Africa in 1974. The countries were all evenly matched, with the possible exception at the time of England, surprisingly enough, who were then in a period of slump.

The same thing happened after 1993, with a subtle difference: the teams were evenly matched but now they were largely rubbish. The English team which won back to back grand slams in 1991 and 1992 was over the hill by 1993 when the try was increased in value. Beaten in two 5N matches it then formed the back bone of the Lions tour to New Zealand that year which was thumped by the All Blacks. The midweek team, which lost several games, was even worse than the test team. Not a good period for European rugby.

Following the introduction of professionalism in 1995 the points and tries per match both rose sharply. I would argue that this was not a coincidence. France and England, the two most populous countries, spurted ahead of the Celtic countries and a huge gap in performance arose. Celtic players flocked to English club sides, their national sides descended into chaos. As they gradually got organised in the wake of professionalism the gap started to narrow and then in 2000, Italy joined to make it the 6 Nations.

What this did was introduce more opportunities for mis-matches which result in high-scoring games. Although Italy have performed bravely, and the gap has narrowed sharply over the decade, in the first few years they regularly shipped 60 points to the stronger teams. As they have improved, so the games have become tighter and the number of points and tries have decreased.

So in conclusion, the evidence is that what boosts the number of tries in a game is not the value of the try but the quality of the competition. If teams are evenly matched, you tend to get fewer tries. If there is a gross disparity between teams, you will get loads of tries, all scored at the same end.

Personally, I prefer to see tighter tenser matches with the result in doubt as long as possible rather than one sided try-fests. I think my views are not shared by the French who just love to see their side putting others to the sword. The spirit of the bull fight burns bright in southern France’s rugby heartland. But ask any rugby fan which was the higher quality, more memorable, more exciting and more uplifting match: the tense forward-dominated France New Zealand quarter final of 2007, or one of the facile 100 point + Australian victories over Namibia or Romania four years earlier?

No contest, I would think.

The Crowd Says:

2008-03-19T10:33:33+00:00

Ian Noble

Guest


Dave Surely the whole point it changes the mind set and encourages teams to go that extra mile. Of course the first step will be to secure the win but if they know there are extra bonus points even in a small tournament as the 6N's it will make a difference. Looking back at old 6N's may not be relevant, because all teams will start with a blank sheet of paper, the bonus structure and perhaps awarding 4 points for a win would enhance what is, regards of the quality of rugby, an exciting, unpredictable and engrossing championship. Imagine a final game say between Wales and France, France needs one bonus point to secure the 6Ns, Wales needs the win plus a bonus point therefore they must score 4 tries. France will strive to keep Wales within 7 points and Wales would go all out for the big win. great drama, seat of the pants time. For teams such as Italy it would reward more accurately there efforts throughout the tournament and probably lift them away from the wooden spoon. Many pluses few negatives, If there was a tie then it would come down to points difference, if still tied than trys scored by each team.

2008-03-19T10:09:27+00:00

Dublin Dave

Guest


I think in general the bonus point system is a good idea but for a standalone contest of six teams it might have drawbacks. For instance, it is possible for a team to win the grand slam and still lose the championship. Unlikely but it could happen. Back in 2002, for example, if bonus points had been awarded France and England would both have finished on 21 points, even though France beat all other teams that year ie won the Grand Slam. (yes I've been doing more lucubrating but not exhaustively as believe it or not I have a semblance of a life away from my computer.) England would have obtained five bonus points that year, four for tries and one losing bonus. France would only have earned one and that was in the last game of the season when they gave Ireland their customary thumping in Paris. Had France only won narrowly that day, or even won handsomely but not scored four tries, they would not have won the championship despite winning the Grand Slam. I don't think we should run the risk of that happening, which could happen very easily in a small tournament like the 6N.

2008-03-19T09:38:14+00:00

Ian Noble

Guest


Dublin Dave You are to be congratulated on an excellent piece of work. Judging from the posting the general consenus is that we are like to see attacking play, but that is always tempered by the unpredictability of the union game and the close tense contests that have us sitting on the edge of our seats as both team strives for supermacy. The excitment is heighten by the knowledge that any loss of discipline could lose the match and a penalty given away. Remember the QF Eng v OZ, great drama, the result hanging on Mortlocks kick, difficult wind, long distance and the miilions on his back . Crikey what pressure and what a cracking effort as it just drifted pass the posts. I was nervious enough just watching, how Mortlock kicked the ball that distance under that pressure I don't know. I don't believe tinkering with the points for either trys or kicks for goal will make any difference. In close games in league how many times do teams use the sets to gain field position to kick the defining drop goal, eventhough it is only worth one point, I would suggest quite alot. Instead of urging about the points look at awarding extra bonus points for the side scoring four tries in a game. Shaun Edwards has suggested that the 6n's should follow the lead of the GP and introduce the same bonus points system. At the Quins v Bath game, although well beaten Bath still played at full tilt and oressed hard as they strived to get with 7 points of Quins and gain that extra bonus point. Eventually they scored after 3 minutes of injury time a converted try to finish at 22-16, a exciting conclusion to an excellent game of rugby in difficult playing conditions.

2008-03-17T15:19:37+00:00

Dublin Dave

Guest


It's analysis, mate. It's the product of many hours of lucubration and working out how to use a spreadsheet. It's not meant to be FUNNY! If there's a conclusion to be drawn it might be: careful about what steps you take to change the game. They may not have the consequences intended.

2008-03-17T09:44:48+00:00

Dexter William

Guest


This analysis is as boring as the English team. Where's the punch line?

2008-03-16T22:44:46+00:00

Michael C

Guest


Midfielder - as with Dublin Dave - I had the same thought reading your ideas. It's interesting. Cricket has 3 product offerings - quite distinct. Test, 50 over ODIs and 20/20. Rugby Union has regular Union and Rugby 7s. I do know of AFL 9's in Bali, Dubai and I think Dublin are kicking off an annual tournament. Not at the level of 7's at all. Now - I am just curious & ignorant - is 'touch rugby' a deliberate off-shoot of Rugby or a separate entity all together?? Matty P - re the ELV's, just a line I'd heard. I wouldn't really know the intricacies of it all.

2008-03-14T14:09:32+00:00

matty p

Roar Rookie


Great article Dave, interesting analysis. Interesting to see the spikes in both charts after professionalism, then the slow drop off. Obviously the field did level off - I think it has a lot to do with the fitness of the players. In recent years, in very few games have you seen the top players completely gassed, nothing in the tank, like in Sam's example of Zinzan and Fitz after the SA games in 96. That's why I love the ELVs, on evidence to date. As Michael Linagh said in commentary during the first round, they've brough fatigue back into the game. Fast fit teams wear the others down by quick taps and exciting running play from wing to wing. Big strong teams wear the other teams pack down by grinding their scrum into the dust, leaving backs to pick up some slack in the loose. So to Michael C's point about ELVs making the game more like league - no way. The scrum is back, and more important that ever, it's how the backs get their best ball. Maybe in a couple of years even the wallabies will re-develop their scrum to international level... And let's stop comparing union to league please. The games were divorced 100 years ago. Rugby fans should focus on what makes our game great, not what makes it different.

2008-03-14T14:02:19+00:00

Midfielder

Guest


OK you may be right, but in 7's there are no real scrums, with six forwards you do. Dave you are being a bit kind to me on football forums when I suggest the modern sportsman is fitter faster so comparing ears is hard because of the overall rise in standard, meaning the more skillful can be closed off and given less space so when I reduce to 9 or 10, people say we already have a 6 a side game. My point is one from an occessional watcher of Sydney Park rugby (my son has played for about 14 years now) and test match watcher. But the greater defensive efforts by teams now and stabding only one yard apart given fitness levels I still ask does modern rugby need 15 players. Just a point of frustration with rugby is in the maul you cannot see the ball, you can guess by the position of the half who is winning but I like seeing the ball. A scrum is Ok I see it go in and come out reasonably quickly so that is OK. Sorry Dave wondered off the point, but my question to rugby bloggers do you need 15 players as les would open up the game.

2008-03-14T13:26:11+00:00

Dublin Dave

Guest


Midfielder, Far be it for me to put limits on what can and cannot be debated here. :) But isn't there a game like that already called seven a side rugby?

2008-03-14T05:51:57+00:00

Midfielder

Guest


This is an old chest nut,...............one which I support as I like attacking styles regardless of code. Reduce the number of players. So as not to speak of things I am no expert in, I will discuss football and ask bloggers with more union knowledge to apply similar logic to union and consider. Football has 11 plaers per side, and the laws of football have changed little over the past 100 or so years. However the fields are better as is mentioned by Dave, the plaers are much fitter, than ever before, clothing, footwear have improved so much as players depending on position wear diferent shoes (boots no longer appiles) shirts are designed to capture allow the shirt to take in fresh air so as to keep the body cool. So many in football believe to open the game up a bit more the number of players should be reduced to 10 maybe even 9 a side, thereby creating move space to use in attacck. IMO I think it is a good idea but I must admit most dieagree. What about union dropping say 3 players leaving six forwards an six backs,......................a lot more space, ball control and winning the ball in the ruck would be even more important than now. Imagine you have scrun half, and fullback not in the defensive line, leaving only four players to cover the width of the field. Sorry Dave if this is all rubish and totally out of left field..............but it would be exciting to watch, and the centres better learn how to tackle and cover defend.

2008-03-14T05:27:24+00:00

sheek

Guest


Sam Taulelei, Thanks for refreshing my memory on the 1993 Lions. I almost had it, was going purely off suspect memory!

2008-03-14T05:26:39+00:00

sheek

Guest


Sam tauleei, Thanks for refreshing my memory on the 1993 Lions. I almost had it, was going purely off suspect memory!

2008-03-14T05:21:00+00:00

Sam Taulelei

Guest


Michael C Yes I agree with you, outside of the traditional followers of the game both codes do appear to be the same. I know my wife who grew up following AFL had a difficult time understanding the complexity of rugby however she surprised me by enjoying watching rugby better than league which is a simpler game to explain and understand due to its laws. By the way looking forward to another AFL season and seeing whether Collingwood will kick on from last year that promised so much and challenge Geelong to be Victoria's premier team. Enjoy the weekend.

2008-03-14T05:14:49+00:00

Michael C

Guest


JimC point taken - please accept my apologies. I do need to remeber the tensions that may exist. btw - let me state my opinion: "the drop goal has been devalued so much in rugby league that they should scrap it and I do find the sport repetitious due to the 6-tackle rule." cheers ;-) 'ave a good weekend, off to my AFL fantasy team 'draft night' - the best night of the year!! btw - Sam to the more casual the observor - it's all just rugby.....but, aside from that, I've heard the ELVs as being bringing Union more alike to League, and certainly, the moves to reduce the goal values similar to League - those things combined make me just wonder about the overall direction, just who's' in charge!!!! Where does the game want to be in 150 years?? anyway, as above, off for the weekend, cheerio!

2008-03-14T05:09:22+00:00

JimC

Guest


Fine - but you could have said the drop goal has been devalued so much in rugby league that they should scrap it and I do find the sport repetitious due to the 6-tackle rule. Instead.... you said: "League is boring, and predictable, and along with the 6 tackle rule - it just drags on, your turn, our turn, etc etc." That's just an attempt (maybe unconscious) to start a league vs union fight which is not the subject matter of this thread. Why can't you just use "I believe, I find, I think, My preference is" instead of making a positive statement like "league is boring" which some will disagree with, and which is likely to provoke a response. Poor form in my book.

2008-03-14T05:08:07+00:00

Sam Taulelei

Guest


For what it's worth I believe the only similarity between the two codes is the defensive alignment from the rucks and mauls and objective of scoring tries. The current style of forward play in rugby involves punching the line to advance the ball a metre forward or so to try and suck in defenders which closely resembles the dummy half in league trying to burrow under defenders to score a metre out from the line. Otherwise the two codes are very distinct: - in the setpieces, the contest for possession, the scoring values, the number of players, the overall physical builds of players, restarting play, kicking, tackling techniques, speed and dynamism of the game, the visibility of the ball, the number of laws and in Australia anyway the hold each code has at the junior and grassroots level. I think the decision has already been made - both codes are cousins but definitely not alike.

2008-03-14T04:56:17+00:00

Michael C

Guest


JimC - Hmm, I thought it WAS the Union people who hated and loathed Rugby League - y'know, the 100 year war and all that people are celebrating this year. I simply gave my opinion - that to me, Union is more dynamic strategically than League and better for it - there are other elements that can be improved - and I'm not alone in that thought - and, by crikey - what do we have, the Stellenbosch Rules......go figure!! My main point still is that some people have to decide whether they want both codes 'more alike' or 'more distinct'?

2008-03-14T04:49:46+00:00

JimC

Guest


Micheal C So you hate rugby league. We get it. Don't soil every thread with your predjudice.

2008-03-14T04:03:03+00:00

Sam Taulelei

Guest


Dave Agree with Sheek, well written and researched. Thanks for your time and effort and I too love the contest, even if it means the result sees the All Blacks finish up on the wrong side of the ledger.. It brings into stark daylight the fallacy that many of us had believed regarding the number of tries scored in the "modern" game as opposed to earlier years. It is a pity there is no comparable tournament in the southern hemisphere over the same period that we could run our eye over to see if there are similar statistics. I support your logical conclusion with one rider that even with two evenly matched sides, their quality still generates many scoring opportunities and tries as a result. As an example my three favourite test series of recent times have been the 1992 Bledisloe Cup that we lost 2-1 however the series was so tightly contested that both sides scored the same number of points and the winning margin of each test was 1 point, 2 points and 3 points. It was a brilliant series. The next is NZ's historic series win in SA in 1996, a monumenal achievement beating the world champions in their own backyard and I'll never forget the sight of a physically spent Zinzan Brooke and Sean Fitzpatrick who were too exhausted to even stand and celebrate at the end. The Lions series win in SA the following year also stood out to me, what a forward contest, like watching the classic heavyweight boxing bouts with Ali and Foreman, jousting toe to toe, last man standing type of stuff. However they weren't dour, penalty ridden kickfests and featured thrilliing attacking passages of play and skill. I much prefer these games over the high scoring, exhibition type games where the scores threaten to hit the century mark, if there is not much effort required to score the try then how can you treasure and relish the score? Sheek, the 1993 Lions series in NZ saw them lose the first test to a controversial last minute penalty that Grant Fox kicked from over 40 metres, they were then far more convincing than the scoreline indicated in narrowly winning the second test and the third test could have been a much tighter affair if a disallowed try (I think to Scott Gibbs) had been scored early in the match. As it was NZ ran away with the game in the second half and the scoreline blew out but they were not that superior to the Lions as opposed to the 1983 version.

2008-03-14T03:44:45+00:00

Michael C

Guest


Alas, I lament that the art of kicking is being lost to TWO codes of football. Originally the try was not worth any points. It allowed a try at goal, fair enough, not a direct one, but a kick back to seek a marker who could kick the goal. And, it was all too hard? Or just too many drawn games. And so the Try gained a point, and progressively to today where the tacklers and runners continue to dominate the kickers and aim to exclude the Johnny Wilkinsons of this world from the game. A game is won by accumulating MORE points. Not Trys. Devaluing a goal even more - such as in League, means that the ONLY use for a field goal is to break a dead lock with 30 seconds remaining. Why not just flip a coin?? If you don't encourage that elelment of play the rest of the time - then why let it DECIDE a contest. The fact that field goals are still a valid means of accumulating points means that Rugby Union is multi-dimensional compared to League. League is boring, and predictable, and along with the 6 tackle rule - it just drags on, your turn, our turn, etc etc. The fact that field goals are worth attempting now and then means that the defense needs more than one focus. Is that too tough? That actually should mean there is a greater chance of scoring tries in a scenario where the defense is not entirely certain what play is coming at them. Surely. Please though, if you do legislate away the field goal - then, please, don't call a 'TRY' a 'try' any more. It is the OBJECT of the game, a try is the new goal. Don't call the 'conversion' a 'conversion', because, the 'CONVERSION' converted the try to the value of a goal. That's long since NOT been the case. Is it now, simply that it 'converts' a minor try to a major try? Maybe that stays. Decide now though, DO YOU WANT a game clearly distinct from Rugby League - or, are you nudging the 2 games ever closer towards the economic rationalist demanded re-unification of the code of Rugby? As the author says - the quality of the opposition has a bit to do with it. Hmmmm, a long way to get to an obvious point one might think, but, at least proven scientifically? If the game on the day demands a one sided thumping, then, better that be what happens - rather than a contrived negatively geared game that produces close but insipid and mediocrity rewarding results.....otherwise, why bother TRYing?

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