Perhaps ...maybe ...possibly the Waratahs can win the Super 14 title

By Spiro Zavos / Expert

The Roar hasn’t been great on predicting, what with not even picking South Africa to be a 2007 Rugby World Cup contender.

But the prediction that the finals lineup for the 2008 Super 14 tournament would come down to the last match of 98 games in the 14 rounds, the Sharks – Chiefs, proved to be correct.

After 52 minutes when the Sharks had their four tries for a bonus point and a handsome lead, the question of the make-up of the final four was settled. Once again, as they had throughout their South African leg of the tournament, the Chiefs collapsed rather than rose to the occasion.

You can have only so much suspense before all is revealed, anyway. The Crusaders play the Hurricanes at Christchurch and the NSW Waratahs play the Sharks at Sydney.

Looking back on the tournament, a bit like one does after Hercule Poirot explains everything at the end of an Agatha Christie thriller, this finals line-up becomes obvious.

The Crusaders lost only two matches in the tournament, both to NZ teams, the Chiefs (for their biggest scalp of the year) and the Highlanders, a team that played better than its results suggested.

The Hurricanes played strongly throughout the year, had a good trip to South Africa and were unlucky to be robbed of 2 points against the Sharks at Wellington when a refereeing blunder allowed the visitors to escape with a draw. That draw meant that the Sharks could make the finals. There’s an irony here which wasn’t apparent at the time when Conrad Smith, a lawyer, was in referee Paul Marks’ face demanding he go to the video referee.

The Sharks were one of the form teams early on in the tournament. They had a strong tour out of Africa. Then they faded slightly. But they have ended the round-robin part of the tournament with momentum, which is what teams going into finals look for.

The Waratahs enter the finals with momentum, as well. They played ugly but winning rugby early on in the season. But when Ewen McKenzie finally gave Luke Burgess his chance at halfback the team had some spark in its play to go with the grind.

So we have the first final between the Crusaders and the Hurricanes – both teams that have lost momentum with losses in their last match of the pool round. In the second final, the Waratahs and the Sharks have the momentum of an on-rushing train hell bent to reach its destination as soon as possible.

I watched the Reds-Waratahs match in the Nelson Hotel in Bondi Junction (Bondi Junk, according to Madame Z). There was a large crowd of good old boys, a giggle of attractive women, and even a baby in a pram (they breed Waratahs supporters young apparently) all going through the emotions of elation (‘go, Lote, go’ was the cry as Lote Tuqiri made breaks) and of despair (‘Oh noooo,’ as Kurtley Beale missed his first three kicks at goal) as we watched and listened (to the indistinct voices of the commentators) in front of two screens on the back wall.

After the match a couple of the good old boys asked me why I didn’t watch the match at home. ‘Madame Z wanted to watch “Big Love,” the melodrama about Mormon polygamy that’s on at the same time as the Reds-Waratahs match,’ I replied.

‘Same thing for me,’ one of the good old boys replied. ‘The wife said I could watch the Crusaders and then booted me out so she could watch ‘Big Love,’ too. She’s from Melbourne,’ and no further explanation seemed to be needed.

We chatted about the prospects of the Waratahs in the finals. Perhaps emboldened by the Waratahs strong record of wins at the SFS I ventured the suggestion that they perhaps, maybe, possibly could win the entire tournament.

‘You heard it here first,’ one of the good old boys said, making a motion of scribbling some words down on a piece of paper.

‘You heard it here first,’ I replied.

I didn’t have the heart to tell him that the last time I made a prediction was when I fearlessly predicted the All Blacks would win the 2007 Rugby World Cup …

The Crowd Says:

2008-05-21T03:15:51+00:00

Jameswm

Guest


Guys - the stats on the respective attacks and points scored are rather misleading. The Tahs played more than half their games in either torrential rain or mud-wrestle type conditions. As for Beale - he is getting more and more consistent each week. He is starting to run the team well - his passing is good, his options mainly sound, and his kicking improving. His defence is improving and there are many worse. I'd like to see him back himself a little more in attack, as he has lightening feet. I agree with 2 other points made. Firstly, the Tahs' imrpovement coincided with Burgess and Sam Two-Dads coming into the team - but also Tatafu Polota-Nau starting. He makes an enormous difference to the scrum (watch it this weekend without him) and in defence, not to mention his general work around the field. And I hate to say it but Link only started those two sprogs (PN and Burgess) after he had been sacked. The other one is what is this ridiculous tactic of Turner's to send an up-and-under every time he gets it? He's so blinkin fast, so RUN the BLOODY ball, or at the very least mix up your options. Rant over

2008-05-20T13:14:19+00:00

Sam Taulelei

Roar Guru


I agree Benjamin - has anyone else noticed the parallel between the performances of the Waratahs in this years Super 14 and England in the 2007 world cup? Both teams had an epiphany of sorts after getting their bums spanked earlier in the competition, and then surprised their fans and critics by slowly building a momentum of wins and qualifying for the final. They were accused of having an ineffectual coach, yet a strong pack of forwards. They possess some talented backs but play a limited but effective gameplan featuring a strong defence which didn't win over many fans but did win them games. I posted a halftime review of teams chances in this years super 14 and boldly predicted that no Australian team would make the semifinals. I was wrong about that and in knockout matches all previous form guides can be misleading about teams chances to make the final and win. I still believe that the Crusaders are the best team in the competition although their recent form doesn't support my belief and the Hurricanes are the type of team that can upset them in a knockout match. Likewise the Sharks are a similar threat to the home advantage of the Waratahs but I expect the Tahs to scrape through in a close one and travel to Christchurch for the final. Then we'll see if the fighting words from Phil Waugh after their thumping last time in Christchurch will come true and they deliver the perfect farewell gift for Ewen McKenzie. I'm sure that will provide many Aussie fans decrying the Wallaby job being given to a Kiwi further ammunition to fire at the ARU for their decision - unless of course the Wallabies win back the Bledisloe Cup.

2008-05-19T11:33:59+00:00

Benjamin

Guest


I think what a lot of fans are neglecting to mention is that the Waratahs are playing a very northern hemisphere style of rugby. That seems very much at odds with a competition like the Super 14 and illustrates why the Super 14 is necessarily a good breeding ground for potential test players. The style of the Harlem Globetrotter Chiefs is hardly grounded in reality, and yet look at the prag,atic Tahs.

2008-05-19T08:03:34+00:00

LeftArmSpinner

Guest


Chas, State of Origin is stale. Sure it is a big game, but its not what it once was. It is a sanitised version. Tip footy with tackles. Artificial Scrums, what a farce and frankly an insult to the player and viewer. Predictability and homogeneity are killing it: 4 one off hit ups, through the hands once and then kick it. As Warren Ryan on ABC 702 says, a penalty invariably results in a try. Establish field position and then kick for a try or to get the ball back from a drop out. SOO players are the best players at executing this procession. Therein lies the problem. Look at the selections of both teams. NSW was considering playing a non kicking full back at pivot (7 or 6). QLD chose Hunt as pivot, despite him having never started in 6. Further, Hookers and halves interchange; Back rowers and centres interchange; Wing/fullback/6 interchange. back and front rows interchange. The game has become homogenised!

2008-05-19T07:46:47+00:00

Dexter William

Guest


Link The simple answer is that I rather watch the Brumbies play week in and week out than watching the Tahs. And so do the Rugby fans - judging by the half empty SFS. It is about Rugby passion, not just winning. You just don't get it do you?

2008-05-19T07:32:00+00:00

Glenn Condell

Guest


I think the Link should go to France. He may arrive as the champion S14 coach. The break and the different culture would do him good, and the team I think needs a new face and a different approach. How can I say this when they are close to the title? Well, had the suits stood 4-square behind McKenzie all season I don't think the Tahs form would have turned around as it did after the announcement was made. It was a catalyst. Beale went OK but I don't think he should play Tests this year. Aust A perhaps. I have concerns about Giteau but the way he dug in to turn his side around the other night augurs well for us. Barnes too had a real dig so I'd be happy with those two at 10 and 12. So would my daughter, who thinks both are 'cute'.

2008-05-19T07:11:46+00:00

chas

Guest


Roger: How you can compare the Waratahs/Reds game with the SoO is beyond me. We have professionals playing one game and, if Saturday's game was any indication, we had kids trying to entertain an impatient and bored audience.

2008-05-19T07:02:33+00:00

The Link

Guest


Dexter, the man that has got his team to 3 out of 5 finals, you don't do so without being flexible. Lets compare Link's record to Fisher's who has had a superior roster, inherited a better culture and came up with Dohnuts from 4 years. I agree that every 5 years it may make sense to change things up, but lets not get carried away with the unjustified Link bashing.

2008-05-19T06:24:12+00:00

LeftArmSpinner

Guest


dexter, EM is going for all the reasons you state. he wont, or shouldnt be reconsidered either. As regards Beale, look at the facts. they just dont support your opinion. he is the seconc best 5/8 in aust behind Gitteau. the others are good also but not in Beale's league this season and in the ARC. When the inevitable injuries and overseas contracts come, we will need them all. All four S14 teams scored about the same points: Tahs, 255, reds 258; force 247; brumbies 277; this is a little misleading given the poor weather the tahs played in, but equally, as dexter says, EM's default strategy has not been ball in hand rugby for the majority of his tenure!

2008-05-19T06:04:24+00:00

Dexter William

Guest


Couple of quick observations from the above posts: The reason EM has got to go is simply he has got no nous in playing clever. Wins are ugly and dour at best. His captain was comparing the Tahs to the England team. Firstly the only reason the Tahs are where they are is because it has more potential Wallabies than any other Australian S14 teams. Secondly the defence was the main reason why they are in the semi. Defence coach Les Kis should take the credit for that. Having to play like demons in defence every week can have its toil on the body and is not much fun. Remember that no Rugby player start out to play this game because they love the defence part of the game. When the team has no fun, great players head to other teams. To win the final in the "England way," the Tahs need someone who can kick as accurately as Jonny Willkinson. EM can not continue to play this dour strategy if he does not have a good kicker in the team. But perhaps he is just limited on knowing how to play any other way. As far as Beal is concerned, not taking age and experience into consideration and based on this year's S14 form, he is behind Giteau, Barnes and Lealiifano. Perhaps at the same level as Cooper, considering that it is Cooper's first year at S14. A great 5/8 like Lahkham always manage to beat at least one player or take him out of the defence when attacking the advantage line. Beal does not do that (yet) and does not attack the advantage line hard enough. By not attacking the advantage line hard and committing defences, his passes invariably become "hospital passes." From the way Beal plays the game at the moment I can understand why Roger criticizes him. Beal does not look like a guy who likes contact sports at all. He passes too early to avoid a tackle, and he does not go hard when the team needs an extra guy at the ruck. Giteau jumps into a ruck if the support does not arrive fast enough, whereas Beal move out of the way to allow others do the work. I can forgive the hard defence that he does not like, but not taking a tackle to nullify an opposing defender to create holes is what every good 5/8 do just before passing the ball. He is not living up to the potential we have been hearing for the last 5 years. This is yet another example of why EM fails as a good coach. He does not play to a strategy where he makes the best use of what his players are capable of. I believe KB is playing to some stupid tactic that is not freeing him up to do what he does best. Last year ARC, KB played really well, so why is he under performing. Agreed that Turner played terribly, but in the eye of EM he is playing great. Ulysses is dead right with his comment: "consistently putting up weak up and unders (did the tahs win the ball back off one of them?) when receiving Reds kicks around the half way mark. A strong run back would have seen the Tahs with good attacking ball centre field 35-40m out!" Obviously EM has instructed the team to do as many up and unders as possible, so by following instructions Turner played fantastic in his eyes. EM just does not have any idea on attack except from up and unders - Did I say he had to go? Yes Many times.

2008-05-19T06:00:31+00:00

chris ash

Guest


ps stop doing the sponsors a favour and calling the stadiums with the sponsor its the SFS and stadium Australia end of story

2008-05-19T05:59:00+00:00

chris ash

Guest


tickets go on sale 2mrw (tues) LUNCHTIME ! hopefully a crowd of 30k plus for the home semi !!! tell all ur mates to come get tah'd this wend!

2008-05-19T05:18:21+00:00

PaulMC

Guest


Roger I agree a bit about the leather patch brigade - but who would wish to attend SFS for a sellout. Leftarm wouldn't get any medication and would never get home in time for the juniors next morning. I think the "north shore" batallions are slowly realising the advantages of Homebush. Not travelling is still an advantage & having the crowd on your side is a definite plus The worst bit is I have a booking but agreed (6 weeks ago) to go to one of the wife's best friends 60th on that night - Oh me of little faith

2008-05-19T05:06:07+00:00

Roger

Guest


Lets say Tahs win and Crusaders lose...what do we think of a s14 final at ANZ? Not nearly as much of a home ground advantage when they havent played there before (tahu excepted). And what will the leather patch brigade think about it? Will their members tickets be honoured? Can they bring themselevs to cross from east to west over anzac parade? Stay tuned.

2008-05-19T04:56:45+00:00

LeftArmSpinner

Guest


Sheek, you scribe your comments as if it is something insightful and unique. (joke) Of course we were sloshed. its a pub! and its rugby and self medication is the best form of medication, even if you have to be at St Ives for junior rugby at 83am the next morning.. all good. go the Tahs. as for your predictions, Sheek, you have them all wrong. canes over crusaders and Tah over Sharks late in 2nd half. Tahs over canes. home team advantage is worth a lot!!!! but, lets review the position next monday.

2008-05-19T04:27:42+00:00

sheek

Guest


This weekend is easy. Sharks to beat Tahs, Crusadrrs to beat canes. next week, Crusaders to beat Sharks. There you have it, no splinters on me. LeftArmSpinner, I watched the game at home. After the first 2 beers, I thought what a terrible game. After 4 beers, I thought this game's okay in parts. After 6 beers I thought this one of the best games of rugby I'd seen. After another half a bottle of red I was declaring this the greatest rugby match ever played! Then I fell asleep..... Moral to the story - all you guys at the Bayview hotel, Gladesville, were sloshed out of your trees!!!!!

2008-05-19T04:17:29+00:00

LeftArmSpinner

Guest


Roger, The stats come from fox sports fantasy comp. we have been having a great time playing it. http://s14fantasy.foxsports.com.au/M/home.mc

2008-05-19T04:01:40+00:00

Roger

Guest


By the way leftarmspinner...where did you find those fantastic stats?

2008-05-19T03:50:03+00:00

Roger

Guest


Chris, Like Leftarmspinner, I certainly enoyed the Reds v Tahs game too. My recollection of last year's State of Origin games were that they were fairly boring. I suppose it is all in the eye of the beholder. Leftarmspinner and PaulMC, I think we are on the same page regarding Beale generally, as I certainly dont want him sacked. He just looks tentative in contact to me. Perrhaps as I have always been critical of Beale means I only see the bad and not the good, but having watched all the tah's games this season with varying amounts of beers under my belt, he doesnt seem like he has the natural inclination to back himself in contact, be it in defence in a tackle, or in attack when he gets tackled. I certainly know he can tackle, it just seems like he doesnt want to. Maybe in a situation where you dont have someone like Barnes or Horne who naturally want to put hits on that someone without those god given inclinations like Beale needs a confidence boost. He is certainyl big enough and athletic enough to make a real impact in defence like the other smaller young 5/8s in Oz have showed. Belive me, I know he is our only real hope at the moment, and I want him to suceed, but for goodness sake, 'get in there and have a go son'!

2008-05-19T03:48:48+00:00

Fox

Guest


Chris Bell, don't be silly. It was as good a game as one could hope and better than most that preceded it. The problem for you and many others is, I expect, that you simply don't appreciate the defensive element of the game or how to play the conditions. The Waratahs defense was immense! That is as exciting in itself for me than some flashy inside back chipping for a flashy winger to chase and dive over for a try (chipping and chasing mainly because the defense is too good). Furthermore, a relatively dry Suncorp track that got an absolute torrent of rain just prior to kick off was going to be greasey and difficult to play a typical ball-in-hand type of rugby. The smart thing to do is to actually kick for position and pressure with your (in the case of the Tahs, formidable) defense. I enjoyed the contest and I enjoyed it even more because the Waratahs only hope of winning the competiton is to win that battle of the packs and to be aggressive in defensive and hold a tight line. You take care of that first and THEN you think about scoring. The Reds pushed the Crusaders with strong forward play and the Highlanders beat the Crusaders the same way. I was in a lather. Go Tahs! LeftArmSpinner - I agree wholeheartedly and thank you for the tackle stats. Quaide Cooper is by far a worse defender than Beale, who I think is growing into his defensive assignment and getting a real feel for it at this level. He will get there. Cooper's constant lack of arms in tackles and lack of ability to use his legs is making him more of a mockery than Beale has ever undeservedly been cast as. Kurtley is going to get there - right now he's a work in progress and most of us should be pretty pleased we have him (certainly most of us with some grasp on reality would be pleased if we had half his skills and ability). He is going to get there; you can see him growing in stature each week. I just hope the missed goals don't eat at his confidence though Link says he just ups his work in that area when he has bad weeks (a sign of a good player). Anyway, I am bleeding blue right now and loving it. Well over a decade of misery and misfortune may be at an end. First stop another annihilation of the Sharks (even Chris Bell would have loved that match a few weeks ago)

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