The finals spots in the Super Rugby tournament since 1996 have invariably come down to results in the last round.
Often the last match of the tournament decides which team is in the finals and which team isn’t.
Going into Week 11 of the 2008 Super 14 tournament, we have a crowded race to the finals, a bit like the run in the long straight in the Melbourne Cup as the leading bunch gathers itself for the desperate run to glory.
We have two faltering (slightly) leaders in the Crusaders and the Sharks. And a gathering bunch challenging the leaders (the Waratahs, the Stormers, the Chiefs, the Hurricanes and the Blues, the Force and the Brumbies). Some of this bunch have momentum (the Waratahs, the Stormers, the Chiefs and the Brumbies), and the others needing to regather and put in now or else face the prospect of drifting out of contention.
Some of next week’s matches will provide strong clues to a possible outcome. The Crusaders play the Blues at Christchurch. The Blues are coming off a bye and a couple of dreadful games after a tremendous start to their season. If the Blues lose you’d have to write them off. If the Crusaders lose (most unlikely) they still have enough points up and a couple of easy games (the Reds and the Highlanders) to ensure a finals spot.
The Waratahs play the second-placed Sharks at the SFS. My feeling is that the Waratahs will win this game and at least two of its remaining games (the Bulls and the Reds) to take them into the finals. The Sharks have a much harder run to the finals playing the Crusaders at Christchurch, the Cheetahs and the Chiefs at Durban, all winnable but tough matches and which has only lost one match and drawn another against the Hurricanes (which should been another loss but for a terrible mistake by the referee Paul Marks).
The ACT Brumbies play the willing but toothless Lions at Canberra: Chiefs play the improving Reds at Hamilton: the Hurricanes play the under-rated Cheetahs at Blomfontein: the Stormers play the unlucky and inexperienced Highlanders at Cape Town. All these teams in the chasing bunch have to win these games to stay in touch with the leaders.
The Stormers look to me to be the best of the South African sides, and a most likely finals team. They have a relatively easy run home playing the Brumbies and the Waratahs at home and then finishing off with the Lions at Johannesburg.
At this stage in the run home I’d expect the Crusaders, the Waratahs, and the Stormers to be in the finals.
This leaves the Sharks and the Chiefs, in my opinion, in the race for the final spot. This match just happens to be the last match of the tournament, to be played at Durban on May 17.
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Is Spiro right with his predictions?
Run home for the Super 14 finals contenders:
CRUSADERS (1st, 38 points) – Blues (home), Sharks (home), Reds (away), Highlanders (home)
SHARKS (2nd, 32pts) – Waratahs (a), Crusaders (a), Cheetahs (h), Chiefs (h)
NSW WARATAHS (3rd, 31pts) – Sharks (h), Bulls (a), Stormers (a), Reds (a)
STORMERS (4th, 27pts) – Highlanders (h), Brumbies (h), Waratahs (h), Lions (a)
—————————————————————————————————–
CHIEFS (5th, 27pts) – Reds (h), Force (a), Lions (a), Sharks (a)
HURRICANES (6th, 26pts) – Cheetahs (a), Lions (h), Force (h), Blues (a)
BLUES (7th, 25pts) – Lions (h), Reds (a), Highlanders (a), Hurricanes (h)
BRUMBIES (8th, 24pts) – Lions (h), Stormers (a), Bulls (a), Force (a)
WESTERN FORCE (9th, 24pts) – bye, Chiefs (h), Hurricanes (a), Brumbies (h)
** Going to watch the Waratahs take on the Sharks this Saturday night? Why not have a beer at the Olympic Hotel opposite Aussie Stadium before and after the game? **
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