The Wallabies have to win at Perth

Whoever wins this Tri-Nations, it will be the best Tri-Nations win ever, IMO. I'm kinda enjoying our underdog tag. Makes for a bit of a change.

Nice article Spiro. I can see there will be many "must win games" for all three Tri Nations teams this year. If Australia lose in Perth then their first of four Bledisloe Cup fixtures in Sydney will reek of absolute desperation for them. If NZ lose in Sydney it will be their first set of consecutive losses in the Tri Nations since 2004 and they will be under immense pressure to win in Auckland which has been their most successful NZ venue in history. If South Africa lose in Perth then they will need to win three consecutive tests at home to secure the title - a feat that is not beyond them but it does show the scale of the task ahead of all three countries in the extended competition this year. Prior to last weekends game a lot of the talk was about how the Boks were disadvantaged with the draw this year but a second win on the road for them will be an unprecedented achievement for the world champs and gives them a huge advantage over their rivals. This is a position that is normally enjoyed by the All Blacks but I fear that their lack of experience in key areas will find them out this year. Sometimes you need to lose a few fights to win the battle. The Boks impressed me bouncing back as they did from Wellington, they had done their homework against NZ and they still have the toughest defensive screen to crack, conceding two tries in two tests against a team widely acknowledged as one of the best attacking teams in the world is proof of that. The key for Australia will be dominating the breakdown, that is where SA won last week. They were effective in disrupting and slowing the NZ rucks and were very physical in defending close in using their bigger and heavier forwards to great effect. Palu, Elsom and Horwill have that weight and size advantage that NZ was missing and if they can get Australia over the advantage line and recycle the ball quickly then their backline will be more effective. It will be a different level of physical intensity than what they've played to so far, but Deans and the team will know that. Australia will play a similar kicking game to the Crusaders and they will want to keep the ball in front of their forwards but in play. Having two recognised kickers in Giteau and Barnes is another advantage that NZ missed last week to relieve the pressure on Carter and in Luke Burgess Australia have a running halfback to snipe and manipulate the Boks attention unlike Andrew Ellis who doesn't really offer an offensive threat. I would expect the Wallabies to double team Matfield and close down his space as it doesn't matter who the hooker is throwing in the ball - hell even if Habana threw it in Matfield would claim it nine times out of ten he's that brilliant. Percy showed the value of an accurate and experienced goalkicker and in spite of Giteau's perfect record against the French he's still to prove he has the same mettle as his peers in kicking well under pressure. Looking forward to watching another enthralling match, the win by the Boks last week was the best thing that could have happened for the Tri Nations and there is more interest generated in the tournament now than in previous years with the All Blacks dominance.

Re WA rugby, it is worth having a look at the Australian schools squad just announced - there are at leat two lads from WA schools in there, one is the st XV halfback and is already on some sort of development contract with the Force.

Bill I have to disagree ...Perth maybe an AFL town yes ...but Rugby is in no way a minor sport .... The Test over there becomes a fetival and the town really comes alive with a test ....I have been there every year for the Perth test for the last couple of years and from my observations there is no way Rugby is a minor sport there. Perth was definately the right decsion over Melbourne ..there really are a lot of Rugby fans over there ...kids wearing Wallaby jerseys everwhere on the wekend of the test ....it is BIG. Sure the Saffies have a lot of support over there but if they played this test n Sydney or Brisbane they would not be jetlagged as they would only be coming over the ditch (3 hrs) ....this way they are flying 10 - 11 hrs .which is a margin shorter from Jo'berg to Perth ..... actuallly this could end up being a masterstroke ....combine two games on the trot ....jetlag and a sell out crowd ...(much needed revenue for the ARU) I think JON has when you think about this really thought about it and done his homework on this one. Love him or loathe him he is the smartest administrator around and the ARUis lucky to have him ..without him we would be sinking FAST. And as for Saturday .......fingers crossed ....but really I think the Wallabies are gonna need some divine intervention (well the Pope is here so maybe !)

I cant see how the Wallabies will not be up for this game. Having watched and analysed the 2 opponents over 2 weekends must have been a goldmine for Deans. Having said that there wont be any lack of motivation for the Boks to score 2 out of 3 away from home and then come back and watch the others bash the hell out of eachother. The travel factor might play a role but there are players who are now only finding their feet at this level again such as van Niekerk, Pietersen, Kanko, Spies, Jacobs and yes even Matfield and James after their NH stints. Watch this space for another bruiser in Perth.

Well said Spiro, but I can't se it clicking into place this year. the heart says the 'Robblies' but the head says be apprehensive. Coach Deans is still remodeling - even if he has settled on some preferred combinations, his squad selections, including Tahu, show that he is still determing his best selection. The new machine will need a few more runs up and down the highway to settle in. On a brighter not at least one British scribe thinks Deans has alreday had a positive effect: I don't have a lot of regard for Paul Rees' musings but I'm hoping he is right about this: "Until now. The Australia Under-20 side scrummaged hard and effectively during last month's junior world championship, and in the two recent internationals against France the Wallabies showed how hard they have been working on that set-piece with their coach, Robbie Deans, well aware of how important the scrum has become again: even Al Baxter gave his opposite number a hard time and Australia were using scrums as a weapon."

Agree with you Ben, I think the Boks need a couple of forward changes to get some fresh legs in there. Du Plessis is out of hooker but I would be very tempted to play Spies at the back over Juan Smith and Kanko on the bench for whoever of Burger or Van Niekerk looks like they are running out of puff first.....although not sure Burger ever does ?? Dont agree with other comments that this match in Perth will be easier for the Boks to win than if it had been in Syd or Bris. That extra 5 hours travel and I assume an extra flight will knock them around and neutralise some extra crowd supprt they may get in the west. My fear is the Wallabies reverting back to the ELV's again having just gotten used after three tests to playing under the current "official" rules. The Wallabies have not been a side in recent times that adapts on the run or learns quickly and I could see them spending a good portion of this test remembering the things that had become secondd nature during the Super 14.

Good article Spiro Interesting observation regarding van Niekerk running skills, he could have scored that try himself. For the Perth test the Boks will have a very interesting selection issue. Schalk Brits who is a sevens Bok will be the hooker, he has by far the best sidestep in SA and can be used as a 4th loosie. Then you still have Kanko and Spies available. Van Niekerk has had 2 good games and for once SA has 3 worldclass 8 men to choose from.

I think Elsom, Smith and Waugh have already proved they are world class. But yes it is time for them to play like there is no tomorrow.

Time for Palu, Elsom and Smith/Waugh to prove they are world class - particularly Wycliffe and Rocky. Hope Vickerman's fit.

Good article by Spiro and he's spot on; also agree with Sheek ( again).Like so many Tests this will hinge on whether the Australians can generate sufficient forward firepower for 80 minutes plus to counteract a rejeuvenated 'Boks pack.My initial reaction is no. I'll be intrigued to see the team selections. Will the 'Boks go with the heroes of Carisbrook or make some subtle changes?Have Spies and Kankowski really made this tour to sit in the stand for three weeks?Who will the Australian locks be, because if the Aust scrum proves to be vulnerable,then oh dear.

Brisbane gets a Bledisloe as they got the short straw for a number of years in terms of Tests, getting the poor cousin awarded to them each year. They have shown that at Suncorp they get good crowds and also Brisbane is the second home of Rugby in AUS. Suncorp has the best atmosphere of any venue in AUS IMO (although this has little to do with it being awarded a Bledisloe I would think) I'm not saying the cant win in Sydney or Brisbane but they have much more support in Perth, likewise the ABs on the eastern seaboard. The Bok crowd for Sydney was more down to the pathetic side SA brought over here if my memory serves me correctly. If your side is not winning will that not hurt the bottom line more in the long run? Again its no guarantee of victory but I think the players would prefer to play the tough matches with a crowd that is 80% behind them rather than 50-50.

Peter K, if revenue was the big thing, why are they playing the 2nd Bledilsloe in Brisbane (52,000) as opposed to Melbourne (85,000)? Is it something to do with the fact that the Reds underperformance has somehow guaranteed them choice test matches? I think people are buying into the whole "South Africa cant win in Sydney" too much. Didn't Australia beat South Africa A by less than 5 points or so last year? Did I see a stadium with a scratch over 50,000 in Sydney? The ARU needs the cash, IMO. Whilst winning is important, if the ARU goes broke, then we would face Australia being an amateur nation and getting smashed by the Boks and the Blacks.

The ARU is almost broke. It is imperative that the revenue gets maximised (and costs kept down). This seems to be more important than whether we win or lose. It relies a lot on gate takings for internationals. AB's bring the most revenue from Melbourne and Sydney so they play there. SA from Perth so they play there. However there are a lot of English and Irish in Perth as well so the Ireland test could of been in Perth, and the Bok test in Brisbane. This should of served both needs revenue, and winning chances.

Firstly, Re Perth. There must be some pain if you want to expand the game of rugby around Australia. It also makes geographic sense to play SA in Perth & NZ on the eastern seaboard (most times). But at the end of the day, all pitches are more or less the same length & width. What happens between the ears usually determines victory. Secondly, The Wallabies are still off the pace I believe. If they do beat the Boks, they can thank the itinerary. SA have to travel to Perth after two very tough tests in NZ. The Wallas will also need to display the same intensity at each engagement as demonstrated by both the Boks & ABs.

I think against SA there is little advantage. Against NZ there would be but they wont play NZ there as it doesn't produce enough cash.

I don't think anyone would argue that Perth shouldn't get any internationals. I think many would argue they shouldn't get must win, crunch tri-nations game as Australia has no home ground advantage in Perth.

They started playing Tests in Perth before the Force arrived due to English & SA population but now that rugby has gained a reasonable following I think that this should be looked at. Why not a June Test in Perth and have the Boks in Bris or Melb. I think that Perth is showing they are very much a rugby town with the crowds that the Force have produced with what is a losing side so far in S14. I agree about kick being only as good as the chase and the Robblies have learnt their lesson after the Irish Test. A kick into the 22 as James continued to do is useless no matter how good the chase! I think SA still has some upside if they get their selections right. Percy did not do what he was picked for last week and James just doenst appear up to it at the moment. Also no Stankowski or Spies is a massive blip IMO.

I fully agree Benjamin they need to send plenty of chasers through and just as importantly get plenty of people around the ball when receiving kicks. For the record, SA last beat Australia in Sydney in 1993 and in Brisbane 1971! But I think Perth and WA generally is growing as a rugby town - while all those expat Saffa's will be wearing green their children and an ever increasing number of local supporters will be in gold! I understand the new stadium they are building over there will accomodate 60,000 odd in a rectangular format, so i think it needs to be persisted with. Although I'd prefer it if we had given this weekend's test to Melbourne, and sent the Ireland test over to Subiaco.

" think you are being a bit presumptuous in saying that there is no way the Boks would win in Brisbane or Sydney, until Saturday the Boks had never won a test in Dunedin either." Obviously "no way" is an exageration but the Boks would have an enormously reduced chance of winning in Brisbane or Sydney as opposed to Perth. The stats don't lie. Zero wins from 10-15 games in Brisbane and Sydney over the past decade and 2 from 3 wins in Perth. I agree with Bill. If the ARU want the Wallabies to win Tri-Nations home games they need to stage them in the stadiums our opponents least like to play. Sorry True Tah but Subiaco is not one of them.