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A week is a long time, it’s said, in politics – and even longer in sport.
This time last week the Springboks were faced with being shunted out of the Tri-Nations and losing their legacy from winning the 2007 Rugby World Cup.
But now with an historic win 30 -28 at Carisbrook against the All Blacks in the bag (only the fourth loss ever by a NZ side in 104 Test rugby matches at the ground), the Springboks are back in the Tri-Nations tournament with momentum, and the RWC legacy can still be retained.
The Test against the Wallabies at Perth now becomes a crucial game in the Tri-Nations tournament. It is the last away match for the Springboks. If they defeat the Wallabies they will regard a two-out-three away wins outcome as a terrific result.
And the ARU has made it easier for the Springboks by allocating it to Subiaco Oval at Perth. The Springboks won their first Test at Perth in 1998 14-13 and drew 14 – 14 in 2001. I was at the first Test and it seemed like a home game for the Springboks with all the support from South African ex-pats urging their team on.
Against this, however, is the fact that the Springboks somehow have to get from the deep south of Dunedin and travel across the continent of Australia to reach Perth. They’ve played two really intense Tests in two weeks. At Dunedin it was noticeable that both the All Blacks and the Springboks were slightly flatter than they were for the first Test at Wellington.
What struck me most about the Dunedin Test was the way Peter de Villiers out-coached Graham Henry, something that doesn’t happen very often.
The All Blacks still have not got in place an effective system for setting up a drop goal to win a Test. Clive Woodward told me that he worked for some years on what he called a Z-play, last gasp play presumably, that called for the halfback to make a dash, for the forwards to drive forward together to take the ball further up field and for Wilkinson to be deep in the pocket to kick the easy goal, as he did in the 2003 RWC final. Why don’t the All Blacks have this type of rehearsed play?
The All Blacks, too, insist on taking short drop-outs. This gives the opposition field position and at Dunedin the Springboks scored a try and kicked a penalty (8 points) following mistakes by the All Blacks after their 22 kick-offs.
The Springboks toughened up their scrum. There was only one reset (by the Springboks) in 14 scrums. When the Springboks needed a steady scrum they got it for Joe van Nierkerk, the best runner from the back of the scrum since Zinzan Brooke, to set up an easy try for J. P. Pietersen.
The Springboks won the battle of the lineouts under the ELVs, even when Ali Williams was on the field. When they took a short lineout and put forward runners out wide, the All Blacks kept their 8-man lineout. But Matfield, despite the double teaming, was able to win the lineout easily and feed from the top. Once the Springboks were unlucky not to score out wide, and twice the All Black forwards were penalised for coming through the lineout in an offside position, an inevitability considering there was no one blocking their path.
The Springboks’ aggressive, counter-attacking defensive system held up well. The try the All Blacks scored was a superb effort of hard direct running and clever inter-passing, something that couldn’t be repeated in a fiercely contested match with huge tackles being launched all over the field.
John Connolly has predicted a Wallaby triumph in the 2008 Tri-Nations tournament. I wouldn’t be so confident. Both the Springboks (who must be now seen as favourites) and the All Blacks (but less so without Richie McCaw and Ali Williams ?) look like formidable sides.
So no predictions from this reporter, except to say that whoever wins at Perth on Saturday (and particularly the Springboks) will be well-placed to go all the way to win the tournament.