China the fly in the Australia 2018 ointment

By Jesse Fink / Roar Guru

There was a diverting little debate in the Fairfax press yesterday debating the chances Australia had of winning the 2018 hosting rights for the FIFA World Cup. Michael Cockerill said yes we could; Andrew Stevenson (who’s he?) said no we couldn’t.

Read the story. I’d be interested to hear your own views. I didn’t find either argument particularly convincing.

For me, the key issue for Australia even getting anywhere with the bid is yet to be resolved.
We have no indication yet of what the Chinese are preparing to do, and if the Chinese throw their hats into the ring the complexion of the Australian bid for the World Cup could change completely.

There’s been a lot of trumpeting in some quarters that Mohamed Bin Hammam, the president of the Asian Football Confederation and the Mr Big of Qatari football, is right behind Australia’s bid.

That is debatable.

What Hammam has said publicly is this: “I support an Asian bid, and that is going to be much easier for me and my colleagues on the committee if only one bid comes from Asia, that would be an advantage.”

He has not ruled out another bid coming from elsewhere in Asia; rather expressed his desire that there only be one.

Back in 2007, when he was in Sydney for the AFC Awards, he said: “As a confederation, we have to go in with one bid, we can’t have two or three … we just couldn’t afford that. We would have to come to a stage where we have to decide which one has the best chance and advise the other bidders to withdraw for the benefit of the other.

“If we have one bid, all Asia can go and fight for that candidate but if there are two or more bids it will be very difficult.”

Chinese football itself might be in all sorts of trouble but there are billions of reasons why hosting a World Cup on Chinese soil will be attractive for FIFA, never the most altruistic organisation. The
recent Beijing Olympics was a bonanza for sponsors, all keen to tap into the commercial bounty of the Far East; the 2012 London Olympics is having a far more difficult time of it finding the money it needs
to make the whole shebang a profitable enterprise.

I wrote about the issue specifically in one of my blogs for SBS.

The team behind the Australia 2018 bid have made a big deal about the numbers of TV viewers in the Far East; that is only to China’s advantage, not ours. Fresh from hosting the Olympics, an Asian Cup and
the Women’s World Cup in the past decade, China also has a distinct advantage from the start in that it already has the required number of stadia in the required number of cities already built and operational.

The hugely influential Zhang Jilong is vice-president of the AFC’s executive committee; Australia doesn’t even have a full member on the committee (Moya Dodd is a “co-opted member”).

Jilong also happened to be director of the Sports Department of the Beijing Organising Committee for the Games of the XXIX Olympiad (BOCOG). He was recently awarded a FIFA Order of Merit by Blatter himself before Beijing 2008.

Like Lowy, he is on FIFA’s Organising Committee for the World Cup.

What mitigates against China, of course, is the poor state of Chinese football, both the national team and the Chinese Super League, and Australia will be hoping that counts for something.

But FIFA and the AFC might just as likely decide that hosting a World Cup is the heartstarter Chinese football needs. If the “future is Asia”, as the AFC likes to tell us, then a healthy, vibrant and strong Chinese football market is a prerequisite.

So let’s get some perspective and not jump the gun.

The biggest challenge to the success of the bid might not be England, Franz Beckenbauer and Michel Platini after all but some AFC “friends” closer to home.

The Crowd Says:

2009-01-19T04:27:43+00:00

jub jub

Guest


My personal belief is that China's biggest downside is their restrictive, freedom prohibitant government. Australia is a much better proposition for travelling fans than China!

2009-01-19T04:24:49+00:00

jub jub

Guest


Anyone who says a $50million dollar investment by the government to host the biggest tournament on the planet is a BAD idea is a complete unadulterated moron. Even if Australia lost the bid, it would be $50million well spent. $50million is a modest, yet very generous amount. Are these people blind to reality? 50m is enough to let the world, and FIFA, know we're serious. I think we are a shoe-in for the 2018 or 2022 WC. Our only threat is China but I think China will be respectful and suport Australia's bid. If so, they can guarantee our loyal support for their inevitable future bid.

2008-12-16T02:07:17+00:00

dan the sydney fc fan

Guest


another thing i would like to add about englands bid for the 2018 world cup...... their major flaw, and it has been a major worry for a long time now...... is the racist behaviour of their fans at games (both domestic and national games), and also the disgusting behaviour of their travellings fans around europe anytime england play abroad....... the chaos and carnage these so called english fans have done at major tournaments in the past will be a huge worry for the FIFA executive committee i can assure u....... and i bet u michel platini will be onto that in a flash, if he isn't on to that already, in one of the many gripes he has with the english football establishment....... very interesting times ahead indeed...... watch this space........

2008-12-16T01:56:54+00:00

dan the sydney fc fan

Guest


the more i read about the 2018 world cup bidding, the more i realise it is all about the east versus west time zones and it's huge impact on the tv revenue stream in europe that FIFA wants, more so then pretty much anything else...... frank lowy will have to use all his charm and persuasive pwers in his magic bag to get the fifa executive committee to beleive that the 9-hour time difference between us and europe won't be to the detriment to fifa's coffers in relation to the massive amounts of money european tv revenue makes for the world cup. that is the real question in my eyes.... much more so then stadiums, rail networks, training facilities etc...... has been done before when asia hosted the event in 2002, and can be done again with our bid for 2018...... it's a 50/50 call.......

2008-12-13T23:15:50+00:00

True Tah

Guest


http://www.thestar.co.za/?fSectionId=3268&fArticleId=vn20081213084211756C886043 Just found the above article, the SA Govt is having troubles in implementing mass transit systems it would seem. And for those who havent been to SA, taxis are a completely differant concept to what they are in Australia.

2008-12-13T00:45:30+00:00

True Tah

Guest


Jesse have you ever been to South Africa? Sydney's PT network may not be as good as Melbourne's, but it is light years ahead of anything in South Africa - to say it is appallingly bad is way over the top.

2008-12-13T00:02:17+00:00

Pippinu

Roar Guru


I doubt very much Chinese authorities would not be able to deal with it - the question should be more: would the half cut fans be able to deal with it?

2008-12-12T23:16:22+00:00

Albert Ross

Guest


It is suggested that the Chines authorities would not be able to cope with "thousands of half cut fans hanging out of ‘pubs’". I suppose in OZ they would be hard put to compete with our homegrown AFL and NRL players on a spree.

2008-12-12T21:44:41+00:00

Dave

Guest


Jesse “There are very few suitable football stadia currently built and operational, training facilities are thin on the ground (even now for the Socceroos) and, as anyone will tell you who has had the misfortune of braving its CityRail network, public transport in Australia’s biggest metropolis, Sydney, is appallingly bad. Any World Cup bid is going to require a massive injection of capital and a hell of a lot of groundwork?” As a visitor only to Sydenee (holidays 3-4 times) l have found Sydneys rail network very good and used it often. l'm sure it compares well to PT in SA and Brazil where the next 2 WCs will be held. Also the fact that a WC is coming may actually help to instigate improvements in the system. PT to Melbs venues is first class and l doubt could be bettered anywhere in the world. Stadiums are an issue for any country bidding. Oz will need to spend maybe $550m plus but this is not unreasonable considering the economic gains of holding the tournament. On a level playing field Oz would be a shoe in to win the bid for either 2018 or 2022. World football politics is the only hinderence but you couldn't ask for anyone better in our corner than FL. The other aspect about gaining money to put forward the bid is the continuing exposure the code will receive in the media until decision time.

2008-12-12T12:46:19+00:00

Pippinu

Roar Guru


Sheek SA was a private project of Sepp's and also had the good fortune of the short-lived rotation policy (which basically existed long enough to get the WC to Asia and Africa before being disbanded). Without both those elements - the WC would never, ever have ended up in SA.

2008-12-12T10:12:14+00:00

sheek

Guest


Thanks Jesse, & thank God for Karen Pini in our time! She was so beautiful, I only needed to look at her to turn into a blithering mess. I will read your link, but in the meantime, may I be so bold as to suggest we have time on our side? If SA can do it, so can we. In fact, I recall reading some years ago when SA were touch & go to meet the critiria for their stadia, that hopefuls in Australia suggested we might get the world cup.

2008-12-12T09:57:26+00:00

Jesse Fink

Guest


Sheek, glad someone's keeping the Pini debate alive! Yeah, she had it. A very beautiful woman, but so different to what we would regard as the apotheosis of beauty in the noughties. I think the biggest complication for the Australian bid is, as I wrote, for Soccerphile back in February: "There are very few suitable football stadia currently built and operational, training facilities are thin on the ground (even now for the Socceroos) and, as anyone will tell you who has had the misfortune of braving its CityRail network, public transport in Australia's biggest metropolis, Sydney, is appallingly bad. Any World Cup bid is going to require a massive injection of capital and a hell of a lot of groundwork?" In June I wrote a notorious blog for SBS called "The Windmill of 2018", for which I copped a lot of heat from people associated with the bid. You can find it at http://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/blogs/halftimeorange/the-windmill-of-2018-119988/ I expand on a couple of issues there that I think are problematic for the Aussies, and my views haven't changed too much.

2008-12-12T08:04:56+00:00

sheek

Guest


Firstly, Karen Pini. In the 29 years since she graced the pages of BOTH Playboy & Penthouse, I've seen few to match her beauty, if at all! She was definitely m-m-my generation! And she gave a whole new meaning to Tasmania!! Now, reading the other posts, the only thing to save us against China is another Tianaman. Will the Chinese be ever so obliging again??? There's no doubt had it not been for that unfortunate incident, there's no way the avaricious, corruptible good people of the IOC would have given Sydney the 2000 Olympics games. In any case, we only won the right to host the games by the odd vote. And FIFA is cut from much the same cloth as the IOC. Might I add, in my humble opinion! 2018 is looking a very, very long straw if China throws its hat in the ring. Besides, Australia is only grudgingly regarded as Asian. We're not really kosher Asian, you realise. All that said, Australia would put on a beauty of a FIFA world cup. But even nice gys need plenty of grunt behind them. And money. And one wonders if we have enough of both, Frank Lowy aside.

2008-12-12T06:55:36+00:00

Anthony Siokos

Guest


The bid for the 2018 FIFA World Cup is really going to be the ground work for the 2022 bid. Australia will not succeed in landing the World Cup in 2018 no matter how much money is invested for the following simple reasons: 1. It is unreasonable to expect that 3 consecutive tournaments will be held outside of Europe, that being "16 years" with no World Cup (assuming they'd get it in 2022). 2. Australia has not displayed enough success in Asia nor has it taken steps to welcome Asian football (and its players) into Australia. Culturally, we are still way behind and so is our football. 3. Perhaps most importantly, our performances at the next two World Cup's (if we qualify) without our golden generation of Socceroos, Viduka, Kewell etc. could be less than impressive, which would not be good for our bid. However, 2022, for all the positive reasons, which have been widely published, could work well for us and be both well-timed politically and for the good of the game. Don't be fooled by Sepp Blatter, he loves to pee in everyone's pocket!

2008-12-12T06:42:02+00:00

danny

Guest


i recon our chances will come down to two things: 1 - whether both 2018 and 2022 are voted for at the same time, and 2 - whether a nation can bid for both simultaneously. if 2022 is voted for in 2011, then the chinese will not have had a chance to compensate for their woeful on-field performances of late. fifa will love to have china host, however their most recent memory of chinese football will have been the failure to progress from the third round of world cup qualifiers. a fair indictment on the state of chinese football. however, if the vote gets split up and 2022 isn't decided until 2015, then china will have a chance to redeem themselves on the pitch. dangerous. additionally, there's word out that nations may only be able to bid for one world cup. it's been clearly established that europe is the overwhelming favourite to win the rights for 2018. god bless frank lowy, but if i was having all my eggs in one basket, i'd like that basket to be labelled '2022'. if we can only bid for one, and choose 2018, you can bet china will be right behind us for 2022. i firmly believe that between 2018 and 2022, one will be in europe and one will be in asia. fifa will want to bang the cup in china's time zone to capitalise on the tv numbers. if the bids are made at once in 2011, and australia can bid for both, i think we're a solid chance to take out one of them. if, however, the 2022 vote is delayed OR we can only nominate for one (and foolishly choose 2018) then china are likely to take it out. that's my stance on the matter.

2008-12-12T04:44:12+00:00

Koala Bear

Guest


If some of the money, most of the money?, is spent on improving sports facilities in Australia, then even an unsuccessful bid will have its success. The biggest challenge to the success of the bid might not be England, Franz Beckenbauer and Michel Platini after all but some AFC “friends” closer to home. Some of the comments here I agree with, and hopefully it will continues down the path of positive language, I am finally reading instead of the pessimists who really don't want to see a Football WC in Australia ever .. hey Pippi..?. I think the biggest negative for China is the recent Beijing Olympics. Was it successful I'm not sure..? It appears to me that they are struggling to decide if they should summit a WC bid or not.. To manage and to provide the necessary freedom of movement for a large number of visitors that travel to the Olympics was a ligistical nightmaree for them I believe with the terroists reports that occured in China during the event.. How would they cope with the millions of visitors for a month long tournament.? With their paranoia with freedom of movement in and around China's Football Stadia.?. China, now seems to be the obstacle in most everyone's eyes.. Well they have not made any approaches to MBH of their intentions to summit for a 2018 bid .. I am one now will say they won't ... Reeling from the the Olympic torch run from Athens to Beijing I would feel they are somewhat a bit hesitant to travel down that same path again. With Tibet just looking for an excuse to display their rebellious political intentions for independence.. Security over 10 venues and movement of some 2m tourists in China may be the telling factor of no China Bid yet, or ever .. All the contenders have come out already and made their intentions clear yet still we have no firm commitment of a proposal from China's intentions. So therefore if China are looking to hold the WC it will wait for the next opportunity say when it's Asia's unofficially turn after the other confederations .. I am becoming more and more confident that the Australian 2018 Bid will be successful .. We will be position by 2018 in the Football world as a real contender to make the final (I hope it would be against England) just for the spectacle of it all.. Nonetheless, as Frank Lowy said recently their will only be plan A.. plan B is properly in the mix with plan A so not really concern about that or what that means except it shows dedication and determination to secure the 2018 WC for Australia .. The good news and I will bet FL who is very influential and grows with every year passing that the respect within the FIFA executives is undoubtedly an ace with the Australian bid.. Working his executive skill with his age of long life experience and will milk it for all of its worth.. As a sympathy vote that he will not be around in 2022 to lead the charge or even see it.. That may sound funny but when aqquaintances turn into friendships do not discount it... This bid will be the best ever chance to win the WC for Australia as we won't have a committed man as Frank Lowy to pull it off in 2022 .. It's imperative we all get behind him and make the taxpayer's money count.. There will not be a another chance as good as this one .. ;) ~~~~~~~ KB

2008-12-12T03:45:07+00:00

Mick of Newie

Guest


Scott B I am certainly not a Gooner. Having never been to the Emirates or wembley my impressions are drawn from what I see on TV and have read and heard. By all accounts the Emirates is a great football stadium.

2008-12-12T02:23:29+00:00

Midfielder

Guest


I think Asia will get the WC in 2022 & 2030, Australia will get one of these spots. As Jes says FIFA want to ensure they are the main Asian sport. I think Australia will win 2022 as its more sellable to Europe & South America IMO.

2008-12-12T02:14:19+00:00

Redb

Guest


Mick of Newie, That's a good call re freedom to move around for a tourist in China. The Olympics certainly lacked a fun factor. I can't see how the Chinese authorities would react to thousands of half cut fans hanging out of 'pubs' in Beijing et al with the occasional nudie run thrown in. :-) For me, the same attraction of tourist dollars, contruction of stadiums, hotels, roads and therefore GDP growth will attract more bidders than usual. Many countries will be looking to secure a special event to give the population something to look forward to. Previous economic evidence would suggest the winning city receives a huge boost to its GDP through the lead up stages/years. There is a post host slump, but most cities and indeed countries want the run to the event to snap their economy out of reverse gear. China's growth seems to be faltering, they might get interested in 2018, as 2022 is an event too far away. Redb Redb

2008-12-12T02:06:05+00:00

Jesse Fink

Guest


Jimbo, those yellow shorts in the clip are an eyeful. Can't think straight now. Also great to see Hoges in glasses. Thanks for the link!

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