The penultimate round of the Heineken Cup

Just for the hell of a biol over, it would be great to see Ospreys take down Munster, but they will have to play a lot smarter than they did against Leicester, even in winning. They have talent to burn, especially in the backs, but up front Munster have the smarts to draw them into a street fight, which the ospreys need to avoid. Cardiff will need to be on top of their game to take down Toulouse. Once again, something about these Welsh sides that looks impressive on paper, but you half expect them to do something really dumb, kind of like the Hurricanes. I think they have been flattered to an extent by their pool. Quins vs Leinster: Once again, I am torn. As Spiro mentions, Quins are playing some attractive rugby at the moment, but my Irish heritage always likes to see them stick it to an English side. Quins have pulled off a couple of gutsy victories in this campaign, and I would expect them to do the same at home. Leicester will take down Bath. Of course, there is a lot of rugby to be played before the next round is played. Injuries, suspensions etc cannot be predicted, but if they were playing next week, I would expect the teams left standing would be Munster, Cardiff, Quins and Leicester.

I was most impressed with the Harlequins victory over the Scarlets. Coach Dean Richards has got the Harlequins forwards playing the NZ game of inter-passing. This opened up play for an incisive backline, with one try from the kick-off being the try of the year. The critics of the ELVs, especially the rule on pulling down the maul and thereby reducing its effectiveness (according to them) saw or should have seen that the faster,driving mauls played by the Harlequins, and the inter-passing were far more damaging than the slow-plod maul so beloved of the slow-plod UK rugby writers. David Lyons playing for the Scarlets revealed little improvement or difference in his one-off barging play. Regan King, the one-Test All Black, showed that he is one of the world's best centres. Chris Malone, the former Sydney University player, was excellent at five-eighths for the Harlequins, with Nick Evsn playing at fullback. Why Malone did not have a stand-out career for the NSW Waratahs is one of the mysteries of selection. If England can emulate the Harlequins forward game, they might surprise expectations in the Six Nations. Finally, the youngster Jordan Turner-Hall at inside centre for the Harlequins is a real talent and needs to be fast-forwarded into the England side to give it strength and power in the middle of the field.

Agreed. Saw highlights of match and his 2 runs that I saw were superb particularly the ball skills run with himself, Fitzgerald and Jennings(??) He's definitely taken over from Dempsey. Nacewa is an accident waiting to happen in my view. Not sure he has the right stuff for any position - he's brittle. and I'm losing faither in Contemponi as well - he's become stolid and somewhat predictable. And his place kicking ratio is dropping by the week. Think Leinster should push Sexton to develop more or else nab Keatly and see if he can be developed into something. As for whitaker, the sooner Leinster put a decent offer on the table for Reddan, the better. Bath played in a bath - no other words to describe it. It was fascinating to watch for the dispassionate viewer and after the first 15 minutes you just knew there was never going to be a bonus point in the match -if either team had scored with a limp drop-kick from 10 yards out, they would have won.

it was meant to say "conditions" after "they were some of the worst."

I don't blame Bath or Toulouse, they were some of the worst i have ever seen at a rugby match. Both tried to keep the ball in hand, but there was generally no point because when they did, the ball was usually knocked on.

A 3-3 draw between Bath and Toulouse at the Rec! I bet that was one to bring the fans back in droves. Mind you I believe the weather was awful. Couldn't have been much worse than the RDS. Although the day started sunny and bright, by half time a black cloud had settled over the ground and started unloading its icy contents all over us. Those of us in the uncovered cheap seats got the brunt of it. Leinster were deserved winners but apart from a few swashbuckling runs by the outstanding Rob Kearney it was pretty dull fare. They will need to up gears significantly for the knockout stages if they're to have a hope. Main problem is the half back combination. Whitaker is so slow at getting rid of the ball he is letting a glittering backline go to rot. And what the hell is Cheika doing playing Nacewa at 10? Contepomi should be playing there, with O'Driscoll and either D'Arcy or Nacewa in the centre. Delighted to see Kearney becoming established at full back. Definitely his best position.

Hmmm.... So much for us guessing outcomes, Dublin Dave. Cardiff took top spot as predicted. Munster surprised the hell out of me by putting five tries against Montabaun - poweful result which gave them second spot. Quins as I expected took a qualifying home spot, but didn't think Leicester would get the final fourth spot largely due to an assumption that the winner of the Bath v Toulouse game would get it. Quater-final line up now looks like this: Cardiff vs Toulouse - I'm sure Cardiff must be thrilled getting them as a reward for coming top of the pools! Not. Munster vs Ospreys - Not a match that Ospreys will relish, but with a good smattering of Welsh Grand Slam winners int heir side will fancy their chances. Quins vs Leinster - Leinster knew they were heading for an away game, and this is better than fetching up against Munster - not much though. Leicester vs Bath - an all-English line-up that Bath will be kicking themselves that they didn't get home advantage. There's no dead certainties in any of those, but taking current form and competition experience into account, then I'd plump for Toulouse, Munster, Quins and Bath going into the hat for the semi-final draw. (Dave - would be fantastic if Leinster beat Quins, and then were kept apart from Munster in the semis, but I wouldn't visit the bookies on it.) Roll on April 10/11/12!

I reckon the most likely Q final line up after this weekend's debacle will be: Cardiff v Ospreys Bath v Wasps Munster v Harlequins Leicester v Leinster This assumes that Leicester lose to Ospreys but gain a bonus point and that Harlequins do not get a bonus point against Llanelli. However, as a Leinster fan I will be hoping that Ospreys can a) beat Leicester (a tough enough ask) and b) deny them a bonus point which might result in a much more favourable outcome for us. In that case, and maintaining the other assumptions about the other matches the line up would be: Cardiff v Leicester Bath v Wasps Munster v Ospreys Leinster v Harlequins. Both scenarios assume that Leinster and Wasps win their last games with bonus points, as each will have to do to ensure qualification, and that Harlequins fail to get a bonus point at home to Llanelli. In that case, Leinster would pip Harlequins to fourth place, each having 21 points but Leinster having a much superior try count. There's other permutations of course. But I'm hoping for the above one. :)

Good call on Bath, Dave. Didn't expect Toulouse to lose against Glasgow! Final qualifying round has most 1st and 2nd placed teams with all to play for - Munster are through, as are Cardiff Blues. Difficult to call who will get the home and away spots but I'll have a go. there's a strong possibility that there won't be any French teams playing in the knockout stages. My call is: Pool 1 1. Munster Q with 22 points 2. Clermont win 17 points Pool 2 1. Leinster Q with 20 points (better head to head with Wasps) 2. Wasps win with 20 points Pool 3 1. Ospreys win with 20 points (better head to head with Leics) 2. Leicester lose with 20 points Pool 4 1. Harlequins win with 21 points 2. Ulster win with 14 points Pool 5 1. Bath win with 23 points 2. Toulouse lose with 18 points Pool 6 1. Cardiff win with 27 points 2. Gloucester win with 19 points On this basis, the qualifying teams in winning order would be: Home 1. Cardiff 2. Bath 3. Munster 4.Harlequins Away 5. Ospreys 6. Leinster 7. TBD 8. TBD I've only given a winning bonus point to Cardiff because they'll thrash Calvisano and will get 5 points from the game. Two of the pools have the top two playing each other and the losing side might gain a valuable losing point. Wasps and Leicester are the ones likely to get their names down in the final 8 in that order. So that gives a QF match-up of: 1. Cardiff (1) vs Leicester Tigers (8) 2. Bath (2) vs London Wasps (7) 3. Munster (3) vs Leinster (6) 4. Harlequins (4) vs Ospreys (5) Out of those, I think Cardiff are going to get a rude awakening having emerged from a relatively easy pool, and will falter against Tigers. Bath will be battle hardened having taken on Toulouse, and I think will beat a coming to form Wasps team. The Irish Derby will be full of malice and mischief, but form will win out and Munster will go through to leave the ladyboys rue another missed opportunity. They both will wish they were playing someone else. Difficult to call Quins and Ospreys, but I reckon the Welsh side will do it. Munster to take on Ospreys in the final is my guess, unless they get them in the semis, in which case Munster vs Bath.

Having worked through the various permutations, I reckon the group winners will be Harlequins, Cardiff, Bath, Ospreys, Leinster and Munster. Best placed runners up are likely to be Toulouse and Gloucester. All this could change next week, of course. :)

eh James best of luck with the writing career. Something I've always enjoyed doing. I think Steffy was pulling your wire as we say in these parts. He was being mischievious and picking up on the fact that you said all of Europe was competing, so where was Germany, Spain, etc. It's the 6 nations who compete - that's it. Bold dog, Steffy, bold!

Hi Steffy - would have loved to feature more about the qualification route for the Heineken Cup, but the opening paragraph's were more as a preface to explain before getting to the meat of the article - the upcoming matches and pools. I could have gone on about the earlier qualifying - but that was not my intention of my article. And pothale and LAS - I've actually quit my old profession and am forming the beginnings of what I hope will be a long and fruitful writing career. The only payment I recieve is your kind words and support.......

Roger, well said, rah rah union needs to look forward. Going back to the original article, this bit caught my eye: "with all of Europe competing, what is it all about?" the article then goes on to explain the pools and how teams qualify (if they have to qualify, some don't) but I was disappointed that with all of europe competing the author left out the pools featuring clubs from German, Denmark, Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Norway, Russia, Greece etc.

Oh LAS, "Aust. Club rugby would revert to amateur and be stronger and more viable as a result." is a pipedream going back to Dally Messenger's days...what young aspring fulltime athlete will play rugby for a sydney club side for nought whilst pulling beers to pay the rent when they can play PU overseas or play mungo league for a reasonable salary? A nice dream but far too nostaligic.... Aust Rugby needs to move forward into more professionalism in a global market so it can flood the market (TV and sponsors) with more professional games rather than go backwards...in turn, with more exposure, grade and subbies will be flush with collateral interest anyway.

Prolific is an understatement. More like unemployed or needs to get out more!!! just joking. great article. I dream of a SH comp that follows a similar structure replacing Super 14. We in SH, are miles away from that. In Aust, for example, you would have a pool of Tahs, Brumbies, Reds, Force and four others (West Syd, Gold Coast, Vic and one more) from which 4 teams would qualify for the SH tournament. More local derbies, less travel for the players and a larger comp across the nation. A way of doing it is to combine the academy teams and players into the expanded professional comp and draw players from other codes. CAn this be done. I believe so, and probably sooner rather than later if player stocks are anything to go on. There are plenty of backs but still a shortage of tight 5's. Lets go to Argentina for an infusion of props, and AFL for second rowers. Aust. Club rugby would revert to amateur and be stronger and more viable as a result. NZ and SA already have a suitable structure in place with NZ Cup etc.

Hmmm Good summary James. You're certainly being prolific in the writing these days. Some comments on the pools and likely outcomes. Pool 1 Munster are staggering at the moment. Despite O'Gara likely to be included for the Sale match, I think Sale are going to take this match and Clermont will take Montauban despite their feistiness as the surprise newbie team of the tournament. That'll take it to the wire - with Munster away to Montauban which they just might win cos at that stage Montauban will be out of it. Sale are at home to Clermont and should win. Whilst Munster are favourites with the bookies, I think Sale will top the table, and Munster will hope to be one of the top two second finishers and the EU Champions facing an away game likely against Toulouse or Quins. Pool 2. Contrary to what you've said James, Leinster are 1/6 favourites for this group, having thrashed Wasps in earlier round. However, their loss to Castres away have allowed Wasps back into even though Leinster have a four point lead. I reckon Wasps will win the match against them in Twickenham, and then both teams will win their respective final matches. Wasps to top table - Leinster to be the likely best second place finishers. Pool 3 Hmm.. If Perpignan come out of this group, Carter will be canonised in the Languedoc. He can make a start by beating Ospreys in front of an adoring home crowd. Since Leics will whack Treviso, that'll potentially put the Tigers into the driving seat. Carter's next game will an easy one against the Italians and put 5 points in the bag. Then he'll have to wait on the outcome of Osprey's v Leics. Nenreke Meyer may not return as Tigers coach due to family illness back home, so Tigers may be off their game. Ospreys to go through. Pool 4 Quins have it. Pool 5 Toulouse have it. Bath to take second spot and possibly be better than Munster meaning the current champions won't qualify. Pool 6 Cardiff have it.