Brett Emerton might have blown out his knee and given Pim Verbeek a hell of a headache, but Australia got the best kind of present on Tuesday when China declared it would not submit a bid for the 2018 and
2022 World Cups.
I wrote about China some weeks ago for The Roar and said it presented the biggest challenge yet to Australia’s hopes of being the anointed bidder from the Asian Football Confederation.
Japan, Qatar and, surprisingly, Indonesia are still in the hunt but China’s withdrawal has firmed Australia as race favourite in the AFC.
Japan, though not to be taken lightly, is dogged by the fact it
co-hosted the event as recently as 2002. Qatar’s climate and lack of carnival atmosphere will play against it, while Indonesia really is only there making up the numbers and undoubtedly playing a political card.
Korea, looking to do a spoiler on its 2002 co-hostee Japan, has also lodged a late bid with FIFA, though
Australia would still have the wood on it for historical reasons.
But it’s outside the AFC that Australia looks to be facing opponents far more difficult to overcome.
The threat of the European armada is the most obvious obstacle, including the Russians, which I favour as the real dark horse.
The United States has also played its hand and given the great success of USA 94 and its significant political clout within FIFA itself it must be regarded as a serious contender. Mexico and Egypt are the other two bidders from outside the AFC and UEFA, but stand no chance.
So out of the twelve confirmed bidders, arguably the half-dozen favourites are, in order of likelihood of success, England, Russia, United States, Australia, Spain/Portugal and Japan.
Australia is an outside chance at best but at least it’s in the mix. Had China expressed its interest formally, we would have been goners.
This is now where Frank Lowy’s vast experience as a football diplomat comes into play. And it’s Football Federation Australia’s X-factor.
Few men have risen to prominence so quickly in international football circles as Lowy, who seems to be permanently surgically attached to either Mohamed bin Hammam’s or Sepp Blatter’s side at photo ops from Sydney to Shanghai.
Few men, too, have achieved so much in so little time. The establishment of the A-League. World Cup qualification. Entry into the AFC. A seat on FIFA’s World Cup Organising Committee. The securing of the Rudd Government’s $45.6 million donation to the 2018/2022 war chest.
You have to credit him for his drive and chutzpah.
My personal view has long been that Australia cannot win 2018 but stands a very realistic chance of getting the 2022 tournament.
Unfortunately for Lowy, though, for all his billions, he cannot buy time.
In 2022 he will be in his 91st year on this earth. He is by all accounts in good health. But mortality is a fact of life, whether you’re a billionaire or a pauper.
As we saw with Johnny Warren, who never got to see Australia qualify for the World Cup in 2005, there aren’t always happy endings in football.
The sad reality is, and I hope it’s not the case, Lowy’s gift to the nation is one he might never see himself.
But that makes his mission, foolish to some, quixotic to others, even the more nobler.
Jesse Fink
Guest
Wolanski is arguably the second most powerful person at the FFA. Interesting to see him on the list. He has very little public profile, though.
Midfielder
Guest
Gordon Butler of Win TV fame or Con Makris Ron Walker maybe .... me
dasilva
Guest
yeah but he has money and therefore influence. But you are right silly example
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Palmer? He's a completely different kettle of fish to Lowy - Palmer knows bugger all about the game.
dasilva
Guest
Perhaps Clive Palmer - although I doubt he is much of a charmer. Les Murray is a member of a FIFA ethics committee so he has insiders knowledge. Perhaps time for Mrs Soccer to have his moment in the sun Fozzy - He will be dealing with "foreign" dignitaries and normally his very polite to those people. Sure he may cause some problems with English and scottish representatives but hey everyone in FIFA hate the british don't they? Kossie - nah he probably undermine the national team like he always does
Slippery Jim
Guest
Kazama, fascinating question: who will be the next great football ambassador for Australia when Frank Lowy shuffles off this mortal coil? Needs to be a lover of football, a great 'politician', charismatic and able to charm people and win them over, a great people person, and have the respect of all...I'm thinking either John Kosmina or Craig Foster? Discuss. (I've always secretly despised yet envied those who end a post with 'discuss' apologies to all)
dasilva
Guest
I assume that we will concede 2018 to the europeans. After a long hard fight of course The 2022 - we'll be fighting against Japan, south Korea, qatar, indonesia, mexico and USA IMO I see as duking it out with USA for it JApan/south korea too soon, mexico - 3 World Cups - that's too much, qatar and indonesia - footballing backwaters (fifa ranking 86 and 144) That leaves USA. IMO they should be favorites in getting it despite having hosted it in 1994. Their football team is rank above us 22 compared to 29. they have the large market, international superpowers, they have all the stadiums already ready while we have to build it after winning the bid, they have a member of executive committee that chooses who host the world cup, and football is becoming mainstream in USA which is a large contrast with back in 1994. I think if anything what will determine who will win it is performance in the 2010 world cup. Every pray that USA loses 3 match and finish bottom of the group and Australia repeats or exceed 2006 world cup performance. IMO if Australia are outperform by the USA or we perform poorly such as getting knocked out in the group stages then that will cost us the bid.
md
Guest
My guess is that Japan's bid announcement is largely a political stunt, aimed at the domestic audience. It is also apparently dependent upon Japan winning the 2016 Olympics. It seems unlikely that Japan would be awarded 2 world cups within 20 years. Similarly, the USA has hosted the cup in recent memory will have had one just down the road in Brazil in 2014. Will the cup go to the Americas twice in three? That brings it down to Spain/Portugal, England, Russia and Australia. One will go to Europe and one should therefore go to Australia. There is much to do to get there though and having a diplomat PM may turn out to be pretty useful. Cheers md
Finno
Guest
Mark, Lowry is a Jew so you best be praying to God. Actually I read a book on the bloke hes is a tough man, he fought in war to create the modern state of Israel. But he is a good thing for Australian Football and I can see if the Football becomes a success that he will be named as one of the founding fathers of Australian Football
Midfielder
Guest
Jes Excellent article and I think Obie One's would be happy just to get it like he may not even make 2018 TBH. Sorry Jes to do this to you post but the smh ran an article yesterday about the rich involved in football today tis worth reading and without Obie One and the world Cup bid and Asia these guys would not be there. Good article about the people getting involved in the A-League. Interesting some of the names and there backgrounds. I cut most of the article out but boy if you had told me this 5 years ago I would have laughed. More powe to Obie One he will get us thw WC in 2022 I think and I pray he is around to see it. Agian Jes great article and good topic. http://www.smh.com.au/news/sport/foo...423135230.html The masters of the universe underpinning football's stratospheric rise Michael Lynch February 3, 2009 BACK in the bad old days of Soccer Australia and the National Soccer League, the game was chronically underfunded and largely mismanaged. It stumbled from crisis to crisis, with clubs going bust mid-season and the game's governing body constantly teetering on the verge of insolvency. And as the Australian Football Rich List published in Australian FourFourTwo magazine shows, the has moved not just beyond those boundaries, but into another hemisphere. Nowadays Australia formally launched its bid for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups at the weekend with $46 million worth of Federal Government funding to underpin the campaign. It is inconceivable that such state largesse would have been forthcoming in the pre-Lowy era. But Lowy aside, in this collection of property developers, actors (step forward Sydney FC director Anthony LaPaglia) and ex-pop managers (Perth Glory's John Spence once managed Bananarama, the Eurythmics and Culture Club) are some of the best-known names in Australian business. It is perhaps significant that it is soccer rather than the more "traditional" Australian sports that is attracting significant investment from many individuals that hitherto had little connection with the sport. "I think the people on this list speak volumes about the kind of respect the game is now getting," he said. "The people it has attracted are serious players in the business world. Many of them were not that involved in the game before but can see growth potential and are confident about the game's future direction." AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL'S RICH LIST 1. Frank Lowy, $5.3bn.FFA chairman; founder of Westfield shopping empire. 2. Clive Palmer, $1.5bn.Gold Coast United owner; mining magnate. 3/4. Con & Ross Makris, $1bn.Involved with South Australian State League club Adelaide Galaxy; property developers. 5. Paul Ramsey, $810m.Incoming owner of Sydney FC; chairman of private hospital operator Ramsey Healthcare. 6. David Traktovenko, $500m.Incoming owner of Sydney FC; stakeholder in one of St Petersburg's largest banks with interests in property. 7. Kevin McCabe, $455m.Chairman of Sheffield United, investor in Central Coast Mariners and other clubs; businessman with property interests. 8. Ron Walker, $375m.On board of FFA; current chairman of Fairfax Media. 9=. Phillip Wolanski, $200m.On board of FFA; interests in real estate. 9=. John Singleton, $200m.Major sponsor of Central Coast Mariners; interests in media, advertising, brewing and thoroughbred racing.
Finno
Guest
England - have the olympics and I cant see that 2018 be on for them maybe 2022 Russia - Politically a problem USA- why do they need another big sporting event and they have hosted a WC before Japan - same reason they have already hosted a WC I can see it go to Spain / Portugal - it will tick the boxes for europe But Australia has the grounds, the transport, foriegn vistor are common hear and the country is set up for visitors. But all these thing dont matter when politics and power are involved. I have been talking to my family in South Africa and they are in deep trouble - the public transport is a joke, crime and security is a major head ache. The stadiums are stuggling to be complete and will not meet the required standard for building practises in SA let alone a global standard. but they will still host a world cup because it a political choice not a logical choice
Mark
Guest
A World Cup in Australia would be a dream come true. I'll make sure I'm going to church regularly to pray for Frank Lowy to be around then to see a WC in Australia.
Koala Bear
Guest
China out ... Lowy's chutzpah ... we're in like Flynn ... I was secretly worried about China, but so relieved now that they are definitely out of the picture ... I also now have no fear of England as many in the 24 man FIFA committee have issues with the English FA .. Maclife of TWG also has written an article with interesting views, pointing out that the task ahead is a difficult one but not impossible. The key .. to convince the Advertisers of the benefits to support an Asean FIFA world cup... However, at the same time, PM gave an interesting scenario of TV prime time viewing throughout the world from the Americas, Europeans, Africans, to the world's populous and fastest economical region in the world ... Asia .!.! I can't see that, the Advertisers will not, and indeed cannot afford to support, the concept of having the 2018 World Cup in our part of the World, nor ignoring Australia's bid... Remembering that nearby Oceana, who will never ever come as close to being involve with the WC.. Also with the countless millions of Football fanatics north of us, with India's middle class and the East Asians only a Hop, Step and Jump away... This part of the world, our region, is the last frontier, and will be FIFA's focus to spread the gospel .. We need to work hard on the Corporates/Advertisers of the immense opportunity for Football to have covered the entire 4 corners of the globe with FIFA Football ... Keep supporting the Lowy Dream .... So he will enjoy it in his life time .. where we were too late for Johnny Warren ... ~~~~~~~ KB
Kazama
Roar Guru
Dave, I wouldn't write off joint bids just yet. We all know what Sepp Blatter is like. Lowy has given so much of his time to helping football in Australia reach a higher level that you have to wonder who will be willing to step into his shoes and sacrifice themselves for the good of the game when he has to stop. I can only hope that he and Johnny Warren have inspired a new messiah of Australian football. I agree that 2022 is more likely than 2018. Either way, Australia hosting a World Cup would be a dream come true for everyone who has ever been involved with or given a damn about our sport in this country.
Millster
Guest
Of this short list, without my Aussie-centric hat on I'd actually be delighted to see the USA get one of the two tournaments. Football there is on a steady rise at national and club levels, and certainly every time I am in the US (which has been about twice a year for the past half decade) I've seen that little bit more evidence that it is becoming part of the sporting consciousness over there. The boost of a well-run US World Cup 25 to 30 yearts after the very successful '94 tournament would be a fantastic boost to this globally vital market.
Dickroo
Guest
Lowy will be happy if he sees the World Cup is awarded to Australia later next year - no matter it is 2018 or 2022 or whether he can experience the event or not. The successful bid for a World Cup will be his ultimate legacy in Australian football history.
Dickroo
Guest
In China, national Football team, which is out of 100 in FIFA ranking, has lost the support from the people and the government. After the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the Chinese central government is not interested in showing off their development on a sport event in the near future. 2022 looks pretty good for Australia. 2018 will be a big surprise. Good luck, Mr Lowy.
dasilva
Guest
Dave I think there is one way the joint bids can go back to attention Sepp Blatter "As things stand in regard to bidding, if there are an adequate number of single bids we do not accept joint bids. "If we are going to do anything different it will have to be addressed at our next meeting in March." I imagine the next meeting, Spain/portugal and Benelux are going to fight really hard. Spain originally announced as a single bid and then only recently join up with portugla. They probably be fuming. I'm thinking that those bids are not dead yet until March. Of yeah and Egypt are not bidding for the world cup. They only made clarification about whether they are elegible for hosting it or not. So they are not in the mix as well.
Dave
Guest
Joint bids are out according to SB so forget Spain/Portugal. It comes down to 4 for 2 spots. US who are looking for the Obama factor to work in their favour, England, Russia and Oz. There are still a number of political issues that may lessen Russia's chances so l'd put them 4th. England will be a favorite for at least one so in my view it may well come down to US vs Oz for the 2nd WC. FL has done a great job for football in this country and whilst you may be right about 2022 l hope he is around to enjoy it as l hope Mandela has the energy to enjoy seeing the WC in his homeland for the first time.