As coach of Wales, Warren Gatland had done no wrong. He took the reins of the team at the beginning of the 2008 Six Nations, and against all expectations and bookmaking odds, they not only won the title, but took the Grand Slam.
This was after an horrific 2007, where Wales had lost to Fiji and South Africa to scuttle their World Cup tilt, suffered their worst ever loss to England 62-5 and recorded eleven losses for the year.
For all the men that deserve the title of “the Great Redeemer”, certainly Gatland does.
But a loss to France suddenly has this game looming as a danger match.
Not that any Welshmen worth his salt would be uttering anything but Cymru am byth. But after making nine changes and one positional switch after their loss in Paris, there are ugly murmurs about the Red Dragons.
This is a very good team, but there were two factors when assessing Wales that cast shadows.
The first was were they truly willing to fight hard? To win a battle of attrition, to win a game of rugby where it truly counted – at the all important contact area?
And did they have the character trait that differentiated a good team from a great team? The ability to switch their tactics, the facility to move from Plan A to Plan B?
Against France, both were portended to be true.
On the topic of omens, as they head to Rome, the last time Wales suffered back to back losses was in 2007, when they lost to France, and then Italy.
The reality is that Wales are a good team, but not so good that a loss to Italy is impossible. Many would argue this point based on the fact that Italy has conceded 100 points and 12 tries so far in this Six Nations.
But new captain Alun-Wyn Jones would be nervous about the road to Rome. In two previous visits, the 44 capped Osprey’s lock was part of a Welsh side that suffered disbelieving losses in 2003 and again in 2007.
Despite the numerous changes, this is still a very potent looking Welsh team.
Gavin Henson is recalled to the side and rounds off a backline dripping with natural genius.
The forward pack looks weaker than it has in any other match in this year’s championship, but there is plenty of insurance on the bench, with four of the 2005 Grand Slammers lying in wait.
But it will not be a given against Italy, a nation whose last three matches against Wales stand at 1 win, 1 loss and 1 draw.
For Nick Mallet and his embattled men, there is a huge amount to amend before playing the highest ranked nation in the northern hemisphere.
But, to look at it optimistically, they are simple things.
When playing the English, a wobbly set piece – losing nearly half of their line outs – and lack of intensity at the ruck and subsequent turnovers cost them the match.
Against Ireland, 20 missed tackles, two silly yellow cards and two intercept tries cost them the match. At half time, they were still in the match, before conceding 24 unanswered points in the second half.
But against Scotland, it was not so much in-balance of basic rugby statistics that cost them the match as much as lack of something that Wales has in abundance: X factor and ball playing rugby players.
The Azzuri have wielded a competent enough set piece, and have shown enough in periods to show that they can compete.
But beyond that, it will take a huge amount of Roman passion to record what would be considered a tremendous upset.
Since upsetting Argentina in Cordoba last year, Italy has been unlucky, looking competitive against the Pumas, Wallabies and Pacific Islanders at the close of last year.
But while Mallet has a considerable reputation as a coach, his selection decisions have caused the Italians and himself undue consternation.
Firstly, there was the insane decision to play Italy’s best flanker at scrumhalf against England.
Against Scotland he clearly had not learned his lesson, playing Luke McLean, usually a fullback, at standoff, and Andrea Marcato, nominally a first five, at the back of the three quarter line.
He has made the same choices against Wales, but it is hard to criticise, when there are but a fraction of Test quality players that he had at his disposal as Springbok coach.
It is a judgment match for the Welsh, for not only do they need to win, but they will need to bank the points to ensure that if the title comes down to a differential decision, they have a bigger number than anyone else.
For all the talk though, this is a stung Welsh team, and they will reaffirm their quality against the Italians by some margin.
Knives Out
Guest
I think Wales are better but I don't think they have the confidence to win as well as they need to at the moment. There is still debate over the Welsh backline whereas the Irish backline is working well as a unit, as is the pack. Luke Fitzgerald's work ethic was excellent against Scotland. The back row is more penetrative than in past years and the scrum is more solid. Everything that is working well for Ireland is working badly for Wales. I just think this is Ireland's year. Fitzgerald and Bowe offer the big/little combo. D'Arcy and O'Driscoll are playing well. Kearney is playing very well and Ferris has invigorated the pack. I think that D'Arcy will start and that O'Leary will start. Wales should win but by less than 10. I suspect that France will win by a large margin.
Colin N
Guest
I think Ireland are mentally strong enough, but despite their recent lacklustre performances and possibly arrogant persona, I believe that Wales are a better side and when they get good ball, Wales look much more dangerous. I may take yet another year for Ireland's current set of players to gell properly.
Derm
Roar Guru
Hmmm Do you reckon Wales will beat Ireland? That certainly seems to be the current thinking abroad. Ireland may have had their best game against France, but they've ground out the wins elsewhere when necessary. Obviously Gatland will bring some of his stalwarts back, but some of the match-winners have not been performing. Ireland have been stifling themselves since the French game - the Italian game was somewhat more open. I reckon both Ireland and Wales would prefer to open up a bit. Could be a cracker if they both go for it. I reckon he'll stick with Darcy in the centre, and possibly Heaslip will keep Leamy out (may be injured anyway). Not sure about Stringer/O'Leary to start - they may get a half each with O'Leary starting. Kearney vs Byrne should be fascinating and may determine who gets the Lions spot. Hopefully Kearney does some more running with the ball this time. I can't see Kidney blooding anyone else at this stage, unless he wants to be different by bringing in Murphy at 15, and shifting either Bowe/Fitzgerald for Kearney but highly unlikely. The current team has got to this stage- they're bedded down for better or worse. Some might argue the occasion may get to Ireland however the Munster rump of them have been in the Millennium before for big occasions - and won. That'll stand them in good stead. The first score will be critical. Whilst I realise the Slam would be ideal, winning the Championship by any means necessary has to be the target. So if they're losing by 6 and with 5 minutes to go there's a choice between a penalty kick to reduce the margin further and leave Wales needing more than a converted try or going for a try to win the game, I reckon they'll take the kick. (I'd go for the try, but I ain't the captain.) France to beat Italy badly means by a lot or a little?
Knives Out
Roar Guru
I was hedging my bets. Wales to bet Ireland by less than 10 and England to beat Scotland. France to beat Italy.. badly.
Derm
Roar Guru
Not 3 any more. Or 2. In fact, If Ireland beat Wales, and England beat Scotland, they'll drop to third. And if France have a field day against Italy - which I doubt - they could go to fourth. Oh joy!
Knives Out
Guest
1, 2 and 3.
Derm
Roar Guru
2nd cos they'll beat Ireland but not by enough points to take title from them? 2nd cos they'll lost to Ireland but have more match points than France? 2nd cos they'll beat Ireland but have lesser points difference than France.....
Knives Out
Guest
I still have a lot of faith in Wales but certain players have been massively over-hyped. Phillips, technically, is an awful scrum half. Whenever he passes he will always draw the ball to himself, and then pass, as if he has a tic. Stephen Jones has proven that despite his experience he still struggles badly in games. He simply does not have the nous to change a game plan mid-game. Even more worryingly James Hook has not progressed at all. Gatland and Edwards have been arrogant and have not manipulated the occasion when things have not been going so well. To that extent this 6N has been a failure for them. They had a great opportunity for the slam and now they're likely to finish 2nd.
Derm
Roar Guru
Agreed. Thought Italy had one of their best 6N games in a couple of seasons. Wales were really lucky. Their pack was atrocious, and if Italy came away with the points, I'd have been cheering them on. Wales have gone backwards this season, and I think their supposed dominance of NH rugby has been shown up as falsely based. Wales were obviously missing some key players yesterday, but people like Williams, Hook, Henson, even Byrne didn't fill you with confidence. It'll be a tough game against Ireland next week, even with only 13 points in it. Between some of the recent S14 games and these 6N, rugby has been less than stellar this year. Some of ELVs have taken their toll on the game - and it's now glaring which ones have to be dropped or amended.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Watching that game I sympathised with all the NH fans will think the ELVS should go. The kicking in that game was attrocious.
Derm
Roar Guru
I don't know - was drunk at the time.
Knives Out
Guest
What does that mean?
Derm
Roar Guru
Italy 15 20 Wales Enough said. The SH poster boys of NH rugby are dead and buried. Led by Warren Gatland
Knives Out
Guest
I'm not sure that this pack is any weaker than the previous Welsh pack. Bennett and Thomas were the lineout lynchpins from the Grand slam season so that will strengthen the set piece, as will Luke Charteris - although with him and Jones being middle jumpers there will have to be a compromise. The two props are far better ball carriers than Jenkins and Jones, so I suppose it's a question of semantics really. I would imagine that this pack is heavier than the pack selected against France, and possibly more damaging ball in hand. But that said, I would expect Perugini - a superb scrummager, and general beast about the pitch - to put Rhys Thomas under serious pressure. I'm not the biggest fan of Nieto though. He tends to drift through games and with Castrogiovanni being a punishing carrier I think it would make sense to play Gatland at his own game. Rhys Thomas is just match fit and John Yapp rarely plays more than 40 minutes. Bergamasco versus D. Jones will be an intersting sub-plot. Why, if Martyn Williams is going to be game managed until 2011, has Gatland not given the 7 jersey to Sowden-Taylor? What a wasted opportunity. Jones is undoubtedly versatile, if a little too tall, but Martyn Williams had a field day at the breakdown versus the French so can he step up to the mark? The absence of Josh Sole should make his life easier as Zanni seems confused a to whether he is a 6 or 7. I'm taking Wales by a large margin. They need the points and they know that they need them. The lineout should run well and with Hook intent on running the backs could have a field day.