A mate told me a few weeks ago that, for the past few years, a bottom eight team the previous year made the top four the next year. I wasn’t convinced, so I did my own research and found out that it’s true.
Here’s the proof.
1998- Melbourne made the top four after they finished last in 1997.
1999- Brisbnae finished third first after finishing last in 1998.
2000- Melbourne finished third after finishing 14th in 1999.
2001- Richmond and Port Adelaide finished fourth and third respectively after finishing ninth and fourteenth respectively in 2000.
2002- Collingwood finished fourth after finishing ninth in 2001.
2003- Sydney finished fourth after finishing eleventh in 2002.
2004- St Kilda and Geelong finished third and fourth after finishing eleventh and twelfth in 2003.
2005- Adelaide finished first after finishing twelfth in 2004.
2006- Fremantle finished third after finishing tenth in 2005.
2007- Geelong, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne finished first, second and fourth respectively after finishing tenth, twelfth and fourteenth respectively in 2006.
2008- Western Bulldogs and St Kilda finished third and fourth after finishing thirteenth and ninth in 2007.
What does this mean for this year then?
If trends continue, then at least one team from the bottom eight in 2008 will finish 2009 in the top four.
So out of the current teams, which ones are capable of doing it?
You have three realistic chances and two half chances, depending on how the season goes.
The three realistic chances are Richmond, Carlton and Port Adelaide. These teams have juniors who have stepped up or could step up this year and, in Port’s case, they have a team which two years ago made the finals.
The two half chances are Brisbane and Fremantle.
Brisbane because they have Premiership stars and a new coach in Michael Voss, while Fremantle lost a lot of games by under ten points so they have the team that could be a top four contender if they win the tight games.
I don’t believe that Melbourne, West Coast or Essendon have the depth or the capability of making the top four.
Shane Jones
Roar Guru
Yeah drewster interesting point you raise. To answer your question the clubs that changed coaches included Melbourne in 1998 who went from Neil Balme to Neil Daniher, Brisbane in 1999 who went from John Northey to Leigh Matthews, Sydney in 2003 who hired Paul Roos in 2002 to replace Rodney Eade, Adelaide in 2005 when Neil Craig replace Gary Ayres midway through 2004. So not many coaching changes. I think the draft system and salary cap are the better reasons to explain this than coaching changes but they do have some influence on it. Hope that helps and sorry bout the wait.
Michael C
Guest
This year - given for some teams, holding a spot in the top 8 from the previous year can be subject to a couple of injuries, alas, I dread for my North Melbourne, and the Swannees. For teams coming from outside the 8, I very much like what I've seen from Carlton - their on field organisation, especially around stoppages and rebound from defence - - they are looking assertive and well drilled and key young players are just ready to really 'announce' themselves. Port Power - definitely under performed and had no luck last year, and might be cherry ripe pull it all back together this year. Brisbane, any team with Brown and Bradshaw - and their need is to find more goals from the smalls. Do that, and tighten the backline up, then, they should be there abouts again, really, should've made it last year.
drewster
Roar Pro
southendaussies - After looking at those interesting stats, I was wondering do you know how many clubs changed coaches after their bad seasons. The coach seems to be the first head on the chopping block when things don't go to plan and you mentioned Brisbane as a chance with Vossy as new coach. Great food for thought these stats if your team had a bad year last season.
Shane Jones
Roar Guru
Yeah Brett sorry bout the confusion yeah should of mentioned the AFL. Agree with your opinion on Carlton. To Pippinu the team I believe will go out of top 4 are Bulldogs and St Kilda can see Carlton in top 4 and Collingwood.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Yes - agree - amazing stat - I've always been aware that there's always a bolter, but hadn't thought it would have been that consistent. Both Carlton and Freo seem good tips for this season (to improve dramatically). But where there's a bolter, there has to be someone dropping out? Who? St Kilda?
Brett McKay
Guest
first of all Southender, it took me to the fourth year of your analysis to realise your were talking about the AFL top 8!! Got confusing when Brisbane and Melbourne are the first teams you mention, and the start of your stats coinciding with the begininng of the NRL comp!! Richmond and Port set me straight... Secondly, what an amazing set of stats!! Every year for the last eleven, and sometimes with several teams. No doubt, officials would point to the eveness of the comp, the salary cap, the draft, etc as measures ensuring a pretty level playing field. (The NRL can offer a similar comp-levelling stat that has something like 11 or 12 teams playing a GF since 1998, but I doubt a bottom-8-to-top-4 stat like this would be likely.) And if last night's display is anything to go by, you'd have to say Carlton would look good for the top four this year. Nothing like a big early call...