With the Super 14 in its final throes, much discussion abounds as to who is in possession of a genuine chance to add the Tri-Nations trophy to their cabinet.
Before a team has been named I intend to compare and contrast on the level of probable personnel and briefly suggest which units from which country have the early advantage on paper.
Let us begin with a glance at the foundation of any good side, the front row. Early indications suggest Australia to be lagging when it comes to depth in this area. Argument and discussion suggest it will be Baxter, Moore, Robinson with Polota Nau and Alexander being inserted in most speculations.
On the next level, the AB’s should line up with Afoa, Hore and Woodcock, although there are no shortage of Test quality players in the mix with Mealamu, Mackintosh and Schwalger another top quality front row in their own right, with DeMelmache showing strong potential and the ability to play right across the front row.
Depth in the front row for these two sides pales in comparison with the veritable smorgasbord of first class options the Springboks are afforded. The probable front row of Smit, B DuPlessis and Steenkamp is backed by Kruger, Kuun, J DuPlessis, The Beast, Calldo, W Du Preez and Adrian Strauss. The only problem is who to pick for the Boks selectors methinks.
With the Boks having to play the Lions before the Tri-Nations, this depth is going to come in quite handy, the AB’s look solid but Woodcock really needs to stay fit, while one or two injuries will put the Aussies in real strife.
The locking combinations only do more to place the Boks in further stead above their rivals, boasting world rugby’s premier locking combination (Matfield and Botha) with some Test quality options waiting in the wings should durability become and issue.
Matfield and Botha are a cut above the rest but doubts have arisen as to their effectiveness under the new ELV’s. With options like Bekker, Muller, Russouw and Venter in reserve, the Boks are spoiled for choice.
The All Blacks look to go with the proven pair of Ali Williams and Brad Thorn (injuries notwithstanding), however their much publicised depth problems in the second row appear to have abated with many old and new options emerging (or re-emerging) in the current super 14.
Players such as Eaton, Boric, Thrush and Triggs have proven themselves to be quality options should the selectors need to look further than the incumbents.
The Wallabies resources in the locking position seem meagre in comparison, but some new faces have been standing up to be counted in this years Super 14. A probable combination of Horwill and Sharpe gives the Australians a test-proven duo, and the less experienced names of Mumm, Caldwell and Kimlin have shown promise this year.
The Boks have an edge over the Kiwis here due to the immense experience possessed by the second choice combinations, whereas the Aussies and Kiwis have a majority of up and comers showing promise standing by as replacements, but lets not forget such up and comers could be world-class incumbents by the time the next World Cup rolls around.
The back row is where the waters get muddied, as the combinations for all three countries are only speculative at this time and with many players eligible for selection in more than one spot, we can only really off a preliminary picture.
Australia has been dealt a cruel blow recently, with the oft-injured Hugh McMeniman being ruled out for six months. McMeniman was looking close to finally fulfilling his potential and was a real chance to fill the gaping hole left by Rocky Elsom.
However Dean Mumm, Ben Mowen and Scott Higginbotham have all shown much promise in the Super 14 season, with Mumm being an obvious choice having had test experience and adding extra height the the 6 position.
George Smith has maintained his firm stranglehold on the openside spot, making a good case for being the worlds best in that position, with Phil Waugh fighting to keep his spot from promising force flanker David Pocock, a revelation for his team this season.
At number eight, figure for Palu to keep his spot based on potential and incumbency but he really needs to become more consistent, but with Brown and Hoiles nipping at his heels, he’s going to have sink or swim quickly.
The All Blacks boast a truly world class back row with McCaw, So’oialo and Messam being my bet to pack down at the back of the scrum.
Some very interesting contenders have emerged through the present competition, Lauaki, Kaino, and Adam Thompson really showing good form this season, but a suitable replacement for McCaw in the event of injury is vital.
The Boks once again are spoiled for choice, at the seven position, Juan Smith is a true world class flanker, with Deysel, Daniel and Potgeiter needing experience to be able to step out of Smith’s shadow.
Kankowski and Spies represent two super athletic, all-round talents emerging at the number 8 position.
Knives Out
Guest
OME, in my opinion he is superior. Hines is the same size or bigger and has wonderful hands, is a great carrier and is a good lineout option. He fulfills the role of 4 but adds that little bit more. He's often been very good in poor Scotland packs and I can't wait to see him in a Lions jersey. The dry grounds of the Republic should suit him. I don't buy into this 'He's so tough!' Botha stereotype. He's a cheap shot artist, plain and simple, and given the physical condition of most professional athletes I seriously doubt he is capable of anything more than the average test lock. He is a good player - tough, durablle and athletic - but not a great player. Martin Johnson was what I would call a great player and if you ever watched him closesly then you would have seen the different dimensions he had to his game. Botha does not possess any of those dimensions. What happened to Matfield during the 3N? The lineout went awry so where was the back up plan? The carrying game etc? Just because you are very, very good at one thing does not make you a great player. I am a fan of Matfield, but - and I cannot stress his enough - I do not think that he or Botha have been consistently dominant over the past 5 years. I have seen Matfield have bad games, but I haven't seen Ali Williams have bad games.
Jerry
Guest
Loftus - they may be the best combo, but I don't think they are necessarily the best 4 and 5 playing the game.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
I remember when we beat the Springboks in Durban with Rawlinson, Filipo and Flavell. Even if we agree that Botha and Matfield are the best combination in Test match rugby, it doesn't always materalise into an advantage on the field. Even lineout dominance doesn't always win Test matches. I think a lot of people see Matfield in the lineouts and think he's this great lock because that's the most visible thing a lock does apart from taking the ball up and tackling (which itself isn't always clear.) Lock is not really the standard bearer position that it used to be and I think it's been largely eclipsed by the back row in recent times. In that sense, I think Botha is more valuable than Matfield, though if the Boks were truly organised then it would be a better combination along the lines of Williams and Thorn, who were the best pair in rugby last year.
Loftus
Guest
Knives Out,you don t have a clue what you re saying.Botha and Matfield is the best lock pairing in the world for the last 5 years.There s no comparison.They ve won numerous Currie Cups,a Super 14,a Tri Nations and a World Cup together. I don t know about you, but I can t think of a lot of locks that can show that on their c.v. Ask any rugby panelist and he will tell you the 2 best locks are the Springboks 4 and 5.When any team manager hear the good news that any one of these two can t play against them they immidiately think they have a better chance of beating the Boks. Bring those 2 Irish locks any time of the day!
OldManEmu
Guest
Jarius you jumped in and said the sort of things I was going to say. I first noticed Botha and Matfield during the 2003 World Cup - I thought both were outstanding during that tournament. Botha's game against Western Samoa was huge - there were missiles going off everywhere; Brian Lima was going completely nuts. I vividly recall Botha with a big smile on his face during a stoppage - he was loving it. Look, it might be simplistic, but if you put Botha in a cage with any other lock in World Rugby and said "no holds barred" - no one would come out on top of Botha - for pure physicality I really do not see anybody else matching him. I suppose however that the proof will come in the Republic when he and O'Connell match up. KO - Hines a better lock than Botha? I guess he must have improved since the days he could not a run in Queensland. This is what it is - not saying Australian Rugby has a plentiful supply of locks - patently we do not. I will watch him closely during the Lions Tour. Matfield is without peer at lineout - this is a major part of a locks game. In combination with Botha he forms a great combination and I just do not buy that they are over rated.
Knives Out
Guest
I agree, Jarius, but if Botha and Matfield are great then they need a very good showing during the Lions tour and the 3N.
Knives Out
Guest
That seems accurate to me. You obviously played close attention to the Super 14, van der Merwe.
van der Merwe
Guest
Damn, out of form backs, weak props and overrated locks. What exactly do we have? Lions 3-0 surely?
JariusVII
Roar Rookie
Hmm you make a fair point, and there are different styles of lock that are used in different manners i will agree. I guess we'll have to see who stamps themselves this internaitonal season.
Knives Out
Guest
Fair enough but talking about combinations isn't a viable debate. Over the past 4 years no nation has used the same locks in the manner that SA has - bar Ireland. I think that Matfield is better than O'Callaghan and that O'Connell is better than Botha. As a combiantion I think the Irish pair are more reliable.
JariusVII
Roar Rookie
Pardon me, i thought we were talking about COMBINATIONS, my mistake. I don't recall stating Botha on his own was a better lock than anyone.
Knives Out
Guest
'As far as i can see nobody has named a better combination and i think claims that they have only been rated since the World Cup win are a bit rich considering Bakkies has over 40 caps and has been a member of the national team since 2002, with matfield having 66 caps since 2001 to his name as well as a world cup player of the tournament award.' What other nation has had a locking partnership that has played that many games together - bar the Munster pair? None, thus there isn't an apt comparison. It's not really a logical argument. From my perspective I think Nallet, O'Connell, Hines and Thorn are all better 4s than Botha. That Botha has played since 2002 is irrelevant unless somebody would care to highlight a wonderful set of games that he played from 02 until 06 caps don't mean much. Botha has never been a media favourite until post-WC 2007, and you are a perfect illustration of that Jarius. Horwill certainly isn't flavour of the month because nobody ever said he was world class. Critics and fans merely noted that he had a superb 3N, something that Botha did not. I didn't notice Bekker weaken the team in any way. -- Pothale, you of all people will recognise the value of the maul to the Lions, especially as they will have more games to practice the re-introduced laws.
JariusVII
Roar Rookie
Good point Pothale, i did write my post based mainly on the performance i have seen overall in the past, influenced by super 14 form. Seeing as the SA locks are dominating discussion, i would say keeping the maul would only strengthen their case. I don't see it changing the combinations at lock for the rest as they are the same as they were on last years non-ELV tour. Im sure nobody would complain about having Bakkies driving their maul while Victor is pulling down all the throws and disrupting opposition ball under these rules. As far as i can see nobody has named a better combination and i think claims that they have only been rated since the World Cup win are a bit rich considering Bakkies has over 40 caps and has been a member of the national team since 2002, with matfield having 66 caps since 2001 to his name as well as a world cup player of the tournament award. Hardly the numbers of flavours of the month, for reference and comparison see Horwill, J. Knives, i understand where you are coming from with "They are clearly good players but a lot of new supporters are led by media hype." It must be like when the Kings of Leon were just a good alternative band and now are everyone's favourite due to a great media campaign?? There there it happens all the time.
Derm
Roar Guru
Hmmm. From May 23, the new ELVs become part of the Laws of the Game. No more ELVs. And the rolling maul is returned for the Lions series. Does this change anyone's views of the forward line-ups?
Knives Out
Guest
* The pair had hardly delivered years of complete dominance over all and sundry prior to the tournamen.
Brian Peppers
Guest
Gees Jarrad. These rugger types are a disagreeable lot.
Knives Out
Guest
'No Knives, Botha and Matfield, didn’t “suddenly” become acclaimed after the WC.' In the media they certianly did. And in what way was the WC the icing on the cake? The pair had hardly delivered years of complete dominance over all and sundry.
van der Merwe
Guest
No Knives, Botha and Matfield, didn't "suddenly" become acclaimed after the WC. They had built that up their reputation during the previous four years. The WC win was just the icing on the cake.
Knives Out
Guest
OME, Botha and Matfield were only suddenly acclaimed as rugby heroes following the most recent WC. They had a poor 3N and a mediocre European tour. What happens if the pair don't shine in either the Lions series or the coming 3N? Is Botha labelled a one-dimensional cart horse once more, and Matfield a simple lineout jumper? For me, Botha is nowhere near a great Springbok lock. He is too easily distractable and doesn't have enough variation to his game and I certainly don't think that he has been as talismanic or vital for SA as O'Connell has for Ireland, or Johnson for England. I simply do not think that the pair have had enough consistently good games for SA together. Their rise to prominence reminds me of Hernandez, a player who despite his severe limitations was branded the rugby Maradonna, and the greatest player in the world. Now look at him. He is yesterdays story and has had a typically erratic season. They are clearly good players but a lot of new supporters are led by media hype.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
I'm actually a fan of Botha, but Matfield and Botha regularly get outplayed by Williams and Thorn. Matfield was awful in last year's Tri-Nations; one of the prime reasons why they had such a bad campaign. I'd say he'll be better this year with a Super 14 season under his belt, but they'd be crazy to let him anywhere near the captaincy again. One of the worst Test captains in recent memory. Only Steve Borthwick has been worse. Matfield's better in the air than any lock in international rugby, but that's only one facet of a lock's game.