The Waratahs may be regarded as very unlucky to narrowly miss a semi-final position because of points difference. But that situation basically arose because of the underlying problem with the team – the Waratahs have forgotten how to score points.
For each of the past five years their average number of points scored per match has been less than in the previous season!
Look at their average points scored for the past ten seasons:
2000 24.8
2001 27.8
2002 30.6
2003 29.1
2004 31.1
2005 29.3
2006 27.8
2007 20.5
2008 19.6
2009 18.5
It can be seen that the Waratahs’ point scoring peaked in 2004 and has fallen each year since. Even in the nightmare season of 2007 they scored more points than in the two most recent years.
With an average points score of 18.5 the 2009 Waratahs rank 11th out of 14 teams. By contrast the Force at 25.2 rank 5th; the Brumbies 6th at 23.9; and even the Reds 9th at 19.8.
The decline in average points scored is in large measure a result of the team’s decreasing ability to score tries.
The table below shows the total number of tries scored each season by the Waratahs together with the average number scored per match. The latter statistic allows for the increase in the number of teams from 12 to 14 in 2006.
2000 24 (2.2)
2001 33 (3.0)
2002 41 (3.7)
2003 42 (3.8)
2004 40 (3.6)
2005 38 (3.5)
2006 41 (3.2)
2007 24 (1.8)
2008 31 (2.4)
2009 27 (2.1)
It can be seen that in 2003 the ‘Tahs were scoring 3.8 tries per match. This declined in each of the next three seasons before collapsing to 1.8 in the annus horribilis of 2007. It partially recovered in 2008 before declining further this year.
Declining attendances at the Sydney Football Stadium contradict the notion that supporters are only interested in their team winning and are content for them to “win ugly”.
Not only is it more entertaining to watch teams endeavouring to keep the ball alive and shift it through multiple hands, but the performance of the ‘Tahs this season suggests that such tactics are more effective than an over-reliance on kicking and cut-out passes.
Tahriffc
Guest
Many thanks Bruce - appreciate your efforts on this one
Maxxy
Guest
Thanks Bruce - look forward to it
Bruce Ross
Roar Pro
Maxxy and Tahriffc I have endeavoured to respond to your requests by writing another article with overall statistics which should appear tomorrow. It's not exactly what you asked for but should throw some light on the changing patterns of scroing.
mother teresa
Guest
when dissecting all the mediating variables that affect the scoring ability of a team like the tahs please do not overlook the obvious COACHING PHILOSOPHY.clearly the board wanted a new expansive direction when changing successful mckenzie et al but this promise of bigger and brighter failed to materialise so very clearly hickey must be responsible or do you feel the captain had the casting vote.if so hickey must go.
Tahriffc
Guest
Maxxy - while the other information will be useful to assess the performance against the whole comp However - the fact that defence and attack statistics move in the wrong direction simultaneously - is very disturbing (especially on a seven home game season) You amy decide to concentrate on defence or attack - and as a result the other side may be sacrificed - but both is disturbing Also - Bruce do you have any info on what the teams in the finals statistics are usually like over a period (i.e. is there a greater divide being created between the top and bottom teams)
Tahriffc
Guest
Good pointsmaxxy - bruce do you have that information at hand?
Maxxy
Guest
Good points Tahrrific Bruce it would be valuable to compare the competiton trends over the same period as there were rule changes the whole way through that saw some seasons where you could score 60 - 90 points in a game. I recall that a season or two ago there were only two games in the whole season where 50 points were scored and therefore your hypothisis about the Tahs needs a competition context to see if it is specific to the tahs or a trend with rules and the move to S14 etc.
Tahriffc
Guest
Bruce - good post with some good qualitative data the other disturbing point is that the tahs had seven home games and six away games. It is reasonable to assume that with the odd numbered seasons you should score more points Also - it looks like as well that both points scored and conceded have both gone in the wrong direction what frustrates me is the song and dance made by NSWRU - hanging Mckenzie out to dry last year about boring Rugby - they sack a winning coaching team - all in the name of creating exciting rugby - and everything gets worse less points scored - more points conceded - from grand finalists to missing finals I am just SO frustrated - I hope someone does something - and they don't roll out the learining experience rubbish (there were there were eleven wallabies in the XV - why are Wallabieson a learning experience???)
Mick Gold Coast QLD
Roar Guru
Sheek says "From the 70s through 90s, quality players flocked to Randwick" - as a then local I was well aware the mongrels pinched some bloody good young prospects (Kellaher etc) from the Mighty Woods! I also remember our first grand final for eons, at Concord, that we were in for about 15 minutes after which Poidevin, John Maxwell, Eddie and others cut loose and streeted us (late 80s-early 90s). Your conversation, recounted from Friday night, echoes what I hear on Fridays from several NZ mates I watch the Super 14s with at the local - ex NPC backs men in their early 50s constantly muttering "run the bloody thing!" I much appreciate your thoughtful analysis, Bruce. I have long thought the ONLY thing that keeps the Waratahs competitive is excellent defence. Their experiments over the years with Rogers, Tuqiri and others did not bring permanent improvement and the loss of supporters this year is a huge problem for NSW. It is difficult to win back the Sydney mob when there is so much else on offer there. I have expressed my view today on the Waratahs in the article "Waratahs somewhat successful season good for Wallabies". To score tries they need to: 1. move onto the ball; 2. catch it (catching a ball is a good thing to do!); 3. know when and how to pass to someone in a better position; 4. run with real purpose; and 5. when this ends, protect the damn thing like it was your last ever schooner of Tooheys and do it all over again. 6. Do not read what any journo (apart from Spiro) writes of your grand successes and excellent Wallabies prospects until season end. NSW has yet to learn, or even acknowledge these things.
Bruce Ross
Roar Pro
Sheek, I am in total agreement with your last point, “all tactics are useless without a support game. If players aren’t willing to back-up a run, pass or kick, then I reckon everyone’s wasting their time!” That seemed to be one of the areas in which the Waratahs this year were lacking in comparison to the other Australian sides; a focus on backing up the ball carrier and a determination to keep the ball alive. With regard to backing up a kick, how many times was the much maligned Tom Carter the only one in serious pursuit? Too often the outside backs gave the impression that they either didn’t think it was part of their job or they wanted to conserve energy for when they were passed the ball. The Waratahs’ reduced emphasis on point scoring may well have been a subconscious reaction to their improved efficiency in defence. Here is their average points conceded per game for the past ten seasons: 2000 23.5 2001 27.5 2002 25.8 2003 31.3 2004 24.9 2005 15.8 2006 14.8 2007 24.4 2008 14.3 2009 16.3 From 2004 onwards, 2007 excepted, the Waratahs became increasingly effective in defence and perhaps came to rely too much on their ability to keep the opposition at bay. This year they allowed the opposition to score an average two points more per game than in 2008, and this in itself was sufficient to deny them a place in the semis. With regard to your follow up post, I take your point about the running style of the Brumbies. The same also now applies to the Reds and the Force. But I can’t agree that at the Brumbies: “Players are allowed to express themselves.” Try telling that to Luke Burgess who got almost no game time in five years because he didn’t fit in with their playing style.
sheek
Guest
Bruce, Another thought. From the 70s through 90s, quality players flocked to Randwick. They loved the running game. Many players who might play first grade elsewhere, were happy to run around in Randwick's 2nds, or even 3rds. Today, the Brumbies are the provincial equivalent. Quality players want to play for the Brumbies because they love their running style. Players are allowed to express themselves. There must be a moral in this somewhere!
sheek
Guest
Bruce, The Tahs got what they deserved. I don't know why too many players & coaches remain obsessed with this attitude of "winning 3-0 is better than losing 30-33". Such an amateur era attitude is no longer relevant or appropriate. Even Bob Dwyer said recently he would rather watch the Reds lose than the Waratahs win! Besides, I've always thought if players enjoyed the style of game they were playing, they would naturally strive to be better at it. Had an interesting conversation Friday evening with two mates, while watching the Brumbies-Chiefs match. One mate, whose son is in our local school's 1st XV, lamented the fact his son's team was running the ball out from their tryline too often, rather than kicking for territory. Another mate, who played a lot of first grade with Randwick, in the backline alongside the Ellas, disagreed. He argued that running from the tryline was often a good tactic, because you had depth of field in which to attack. A true, typical Randwick man! I adopted a middle path, agreeing that running out from the tryline was a good tactic, but one which shouldn't be over-played. Like everything else, a good team needs to mix its game up to keep their opponents guessing. A random thought. Whether running, passing or kicking, all tactics are useless without a support game. If players aren't willing to back-up a run, pass or kick, then I reckon everyone's wasting their time!