Brad Sewell of Hawthorn in action during the AFL ANZAC Day Round 05 match between the Hawthorn Hawks and the West Coast Eagles at Aurora Stadium. Slattery Images
As impressive as Hawthorn’s win over Collingwood last week was, you can’t help but feel the reigning Premier has left its run too late. The win made it two in a row for the Hawks, and it has left some believing they could be a dangerous sleeper in this year’s finals series.
We shouldn’t buy that.
Hawthorn was superb in achieving a premiership-winning season last year. But this year, despite their recent form, the Hawks will be lucky to make the finals – let along play a significant part in them.
Hawthorn’s Round 22 clash with Essendon could determine its fate this season.
Causing a shake-up in the finals from eighth position is a tall order – and an unrealistic one.
Given the way today’s finals system is structured, teams must make the top-four to have a shot at glory – there is simply too much to do for those in the bottom-half of the top-eight.
The Hawks’ run home includes a clash with rival Geelong this weekend, and matches with Port Adelaide (in Adelaide), St.Kilda and Adelaide, along with Richmond and the Bombers.
None of those are guaranteed wins and the Hawks need four of those to simply make the final eight.
The Hawks have suffered from a number of injuries this season, along with the below-par form of many senior players.
As a result, they have struggled for symmetry and an unstable team is unlikely to have success.
A late-season win over Collingwood should not be used to justify a finals’ pulse at Glenferrie Oval. If the Hawks defeat the Cats this weekend, they will send a real scare through the competition.
Even an event of that magnitude would leave the Hawks with plenty to do. Is there enough time for the reigning premier to regain their mojo and win four of their last six?
Only time will tell, but I suspect time will run out.
Tom
Guest
Richmond's probably a guaranteed win, if there is such a thing. I think Hawthorn can sneak in with a little luck. Port Adelaide and Essendon have tough draws as well. It might come down to the Hawks-Dons game at the G in round 22. Wouldn't that be something! If the Hawks do make in though, they'll probably have to travel to either Brisbane or Adelaide in week 1. That'd be a tough ask on the back of a big finish to the season.
Kurt
Guest
Luke - I think you're right that we have left our run a bit late but if (and this is a big if) we do sneak into the eight I think we can do some serious damage as the 'dangerous floater'. One of the major reasons the premiership has only been one by a top four side is because generally the sides who finish 5th - 8th are rubbish. If we get close to putting our best side on the park for the finals series and our guns continue to show improved form then we are a definite chance to at least make it to a prelim final. And from there who knows? Mind you I still think the saints will win the flag.