With the double signings of both Berrick Barnes and Drew Mitchell by the Waratahs, it has become obvious that the Australian Super 14 hopes will be a two horse race in 2010.
More to the point, both the Queensland Reds and Western Force will struggle to compete let alone finish in the top half of the table.
Both teams have not done this in recent Super rugby history.
The Force did finish seventh in their second year, but placed one position worse this year and will not have the services of key players next year, most notably Matt Giteau and Drew Mitchell.
Fortuitously for the three year-old team, they still are able to recruit shrewdly, employing a strategy based on the fact that they are still a rugby State in genesis, banking on the reputation of John Mitchell as a back to basics rugby coach – who is still highly regarded despite this year’s controversies – and pulling over players who are “stuck behind” other front line players in other teams.
Headlined by former Springbok Andre Pretorius, the Force has also signed Brett Sheehan, Nic Henderson, Pek Cowan, Tim Fairbrother, Matt Dunning and Sam Harris.
While all are solid signings, these men are not championship winning additions.
The Queensland Reds, however, a foundation Australian rugby state, are in complete disarray.
They have finished no higher than twelfth in the last three years, and haven’t finished better than eighth since 2003. It is a damning statistic for a team whose history books reflect victories over the All Blacks and British and Irish Lions, and who threatened the Super rugby title in the late nineties.
In the long term, for a rugby nation about to host a fifth team, whether it is actually a local side or a “lodged team” from another country, this could present problems: for the ARU, the already tenuous SANZAR alliance, and the market value of the Super rugby broadcasting deals.
If the fifth team is comprised of local players, how will it be manned considering the gross inbalance of the current Australian rugby stocks?
The Brumbies next year will field eleven Wallabies, most of them first choice. Key amongst their new signings is Rocky Elsom and Matt Giteau.
This allows the two time champions to make a concerted assault on the 2010 title.
With Elsom, Giteau, Stirling Mortlock and George Smith, the Canberra based franchise wields a minimum of four players who could be counted as inclusions into a possible World XV.
For the Waratahs, their position is even more impressive, able in theory to roll out an entire starting team of internationally capped players.
Eleven of their squad featured in the Wallabies last match 22 against the All Blacks at Eden Park, and despite losing both Lote Tuqiri and Timana Tahu, they will look to hoist a maiden Super rugby title.
The strength of these two teams is a reflection of precious little control over Australian playing stocks and movement.
Some detractors will be quick to point out that there is lack of balance in both South Africa’s and New Zealand’s Super rugby squads, but this is not based on the players making decisions to move teams or States.
In South Africa, while the Cheetahs and Lions certainly struggle for success, the Sharks, Bulls and Stormers are legitimate title contenders (despite the Western Province side’s poor season this year – they came fifth in 2008).
The three blue chip South African sides are strongly based on their domestic union allocations, not due to an unfair player trading schedule.
The Stormers draw primarily from Western Province, winners of the most Currie Cup titles (32); the Bulls draw from the Blue Bulls, winners of the second most (22); while the Sharks draw from Natal – the current Currie Cup champions.
In New Zealand, it is similar, with the strength of their teams reflective of the depth of their geographical catchment areas and the sides drawing from the 26 New Zealand domestic unions.
The Highlanders and Blues draw from three, whereas the Hurricanes draw from nine local unions.
All five New Zealand Super rugby franchises can lay some claim to success throughout the thirteen year history of the tournament.
Furthermore, the NZRU has a draft system that allows the teams to protect 24 players, but those outside that safeguard are able to be traded fairly – by and large – to other “super provinces”.
But despite ambitious bids for the 15th Super rugby team from New Zealand and South Africa, this is a moot point.
Australia will host the new side.
But with their domestic house not in order, the likely continued hegemony in the local landscape by the Brumbies and Waratahs will need to be addressed soon.
Bay35Pablo
Roar Guru
hammer, here's my reply I couldn't post Friday. I stand corrected. I knew I would get my head shot off if I was wrong, but frankly couldn't be arsed spending 30 seconds on a Google search to check. I seemed to recall they had been better a while ago, but recent form had been poor. I agree we may not have the depth for a 5th side, but I'd rather have 5 years of pain to expand our playing depth by another 30 pro players, to be frank. Given JON & Co seem intent on not building the game lower down. Further, I think the Force have done OK, and the Reds have had as much problems with admin and coaching as with player depth, so we may not be as weak as would seem. Another couple of years and I suspect those teams would have slowly built/recovered. An extra team is like that repeat set of waves at the beach when you are struggling in the surf .... In many ways we are going to follow the Saafies, in having a couple of good sides, a half decent side, and a couple of crap sides. yet the Saafies can chirp on about wanting a 6th? Further, in many ways NZ usually has a couple of under performers each season, it just varies who. I agree the ARU should do more, and many Roarers clearly think the same way. I like how JON apparently said the ARC lost $5m, and the ARU has $15m, in reserves, "you do the math". My response would be (i) are you working out how to avoid losing $5m next time? because we can't use the S15 as our national comp, and (ii) what's the $15m for then? That's a frigging wet rainy day you are waiting for. I am all for having reserves of cash, but we have some issues to resolve too!!!
Gary
Guest
Here we go again. The same malicous drivel towards the Force that has been eminating from Sydney in particular ever since the Force was formed. Lets get a few things straight: 1. Giteau (who went home at the conclusion of his contract, and good luck to him) was the only genuine super star that left the Force last year. Mitchell is easily replaced from the existing squad (has everyone forgotten Cameron Shepherd and Nick Cummins) and the Force has recruited well this year, not only for the main squad but also for the academy. In particualr the pack should be much stronger this year. 2. Rugby WA is financially sound. 3. The WA Club and Junior competitions are expanding rapidly. My club fields 24 teams every weekend and is not the largest in Perth. Many clubs, certainly mine) have a problem of too many players, not one of trying to fill spots. There are a lot of talented youngsters working their way through the system. There will be many more Haylett-Petty's. In adiition there is a steady stream of young hopefuls moving to Perth to try and secure a spot with the Force. 4. The WA Government has just committed to a new $160 million stadium similar to Skilled Park in Queensland. The Force is here to stay and not in any danger of floundering. As one Roarer said last week, the Force is " A success in progress" .
sheek
Guest
The Yanks, bastion of democracy & personal freedom, have draft & salary cap in their major leagues. Works for them, works for us.
sheek
Guest
Spencer, You have lost me on several counts. "QRU teams have always played in Red"????? I would be most appreciative if you could provide some backup for that comment. Otherwise, I've been colour blind for these past 40 years. I understand why RL went to SOO, because all the best Queensland players were playing for the richer Sydney clubs. And NSW was usually half-full of Queenslanders. But I'm not a fan of the state of origin concept at all, even though it works very well for RL. People can't help where they're born, but they have a choice later in life where they would like to live. Take me. Born in PNG to NSW country bred parents. Boarding high school in Sydney. I chose Queensland as my home state because it was geographically closest to Qld, with similar climate & lifestyle. I remain in Sydney for work, marriage, family & friends. But I hope to retire to Qld. In any case, my wife has been instructed to sprinkle my ashes over the Qld border, if or when that happens. I follow Qld in every sport, through good & bad. And I'm thankful in rugby players have a choice where they want to play & live. Unlike RL. In the mid to late 70s, Qld's RU stocks were strengthened by the arrival of 3 NSW country players - Greg Cornelsen, Peter Horton & Geoff Shaw. Plus Sydneysider Chris Carberry. In the early 80s came David Codey. All these guys wore the maroon (I say) jersey as proudly as any native born Queenslander.
Dave
Guest
As well as Viv Richards, Alvin Kallacharin, Wes Hall, Ian botham, Graeme Hick , Majid Khan, Ray Lindwall, Rusi Surti, Gary Cosier, Dirk Wellham and Peter Taylor
Nipper
Guest
Until the 'Tahs revamp the awful game plan from last year, they won't be doing much of anything. There's a time and the place for kick and chase, but that shouldn't be the primary facet of your game, should it? Especially given the supposed talent they have.
Spencer
Guest
Should I have said the Western Reds??
Spencer
Guest
Sheek - You are being awfully childish for a chap that is normally sensible. QRU teams have always played in Red and League teams in Maroon. Actually in 2009 QRu reverted to the more traditional Red. I am sure you can appreciate that as dedicated lifelong (and we are talking more than 40 years in my case) Reds supporters we are all feeling rather disillusioned about rugby. I suspect you are old enough to remember why league invented SOO. Are we heading in the same direction Sheek? Good luck to the NSW Reds in 2009.
sheek
Guest
I wasn't aware we had a state called Force?!
sheek
Guest
Spencer, Maybe the Reds are suffering an identity crisis? I thought Queenslanders wore maroon? Back in the early 80s, Bret Harris wrote a wonderful book, 'The Marauding Maroons'. Ever since I saw that title, I thought it ought to be the nickname of the QRU team - Marauding Maroons. These days, the Qld jersey seems to have less maroon, & more red. I would suggest the marketing buffoons are stealing Queensland's heritage.
sheek
Guest
Spencer, I thought Queenslanders wore maroon? Maybe the Reds are suffering an identity crisis? Bret Harris wrote a wonderful book in the early 80s - 'The Marauding Maroons'. Ever since I saw that title, I've always thought that ought to be the nickname of the QRU team - Marauding Maroons. These days the jersey appears to be getting less maroon, & more red. I would suggest the marketing morons are stealing Qld's heritage.
sheek
Guest
I thought they were Maroons. Maybe the Reds are suffering from an identity crisis? Bret Harris wrote a wonderful book in the early 80s - 'The Marauding Maroons'. I've always thought since I saw that title, this is what the QRU team ought to be called. These days, that Maroon jersey seems to be getting less maroon & more red. I would suggest the marketing morons are stealing Qld's heritage.
sheek
Guest
Spencer, Was having Greg Chappell (ex-SAu), Jeff Thomson (ex-NSW), Allan Border (ex-NSW), Ray Phillips (ex-NSW) & Kepler Wessels (ex-SAf) all in the Queensland cricket team at the one time such a bad thing??? I reckon they helped give the banana benders the skills & will power to become the force they did in the 90s & 2000s.
Spencer
Guest
Good point Dave....eh, actually not! Being a Queenslander is in the heart and soul. You can ask AB how he feels about it.
Dave
Guest
you must have been fuming when they let AB hold up the Sheffield shield in 94/95 then.
AndyS
Guest
And that probably lies at the heart of all this angst, because while still identified with all that heritage the Reds are in fact now a professional rugby franchise. Technically, there would be nothing to stop the ARU reassigning it to new management on the GC. Perhaps it would have all been so much neater had the Reds (and maybe club rugby in general) remained what it always traditionally was - the pinnacle of amateur rugby. Things could have continued as were, local lads playing for the love of the sport and taking on the other State amateur teams, probably still well supported as the highest possible level a player could aspire to without actually giving up his life to play the sport professionally. The Super competition could have then developed separately but without the millstone that all that tradition can sometimes impose.
Spencer
Guest
That's the key distinction: The Reds represent Queensland. That is our heritage.
AndyS
Guest
No, no argument at all. Just observing though that, once implemented, the draft is actually no threat to tribalism etc. Speaking for myself, I love to see local lads playing locally, but the reality is that I follow the team not the player. Similarly, I have not the least attachment to Sydney club rugby (and wouldn't even if they called it the national comp) because I have no connection with the place or any of the teams. It doesn't matter that some of our local players are playing there - I just don't and can't care.
Dave
Guest
That’s great but AFL teams aren’t states. I barrack for the crows but I don’t live in Adelaide so I don’t care if all the players come from Adelaide or not.
Dave
Guest
The draft doesnt dilute passion and a tribal following in the NFL, let alone the AFL