Aussies to beat the ghosts of The Oval and take the Ashes

Australia’s Mitchell Johnson, right, is congratulated by teammates after taking the wicket of England’s Alastair Cook on the second day of the fourth cricket test match between England and Australia, at Headingley cricket ground in Leeds, England, Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009. (AP Photo/Tim Hales)

Why do St George nearly always lose to The Raiders? Is it the biting cold air in the nation’s capital that is so different from the balmy seaside locations at Wollongong or Kogarah that gets the players literally out of their comfort zones?

It’s a similar question that England generally face when playing Australia at Lords. Or anybody playing the Springboks on the highveldt. Or the All Blacks in Dunedin.

So what happens at The Oval when Australia have the Ashes on the line?

Australia have only won twice since 1948, and that was in 2001 during the clean sweep and Ian Chappell’s resurgent DK Lillee spearheaded team in 1972.

In 2005, with the greatest upset in modern cricket on the tables, Ricky Ponting could not get his team across the line, even with McGrath and Warne as the attack.

In 2009, it is England that a draw will not satisfy and Andrew Strauss has the job of finding a way to get 20 wickets and more runs than the Australians. On the most recent of form, Strauss has a momentous task in the wheelbarrow.

During a straw poll of Pommie backpackers at Coogee Beach during Sunday’s heatwave, I could not find a single one who disagreed with the premise that “England were dreadful.”

The ‘packers often added some descriptor that I will not go into here. Needless to say, they were not ameliorating.

I have been trying to convince myself that we will see a repeat of the tension and drama of the Oval Test in 2005. I was lucky to be at the ground for all five days and it is perhaps the most electric atmosphere I have ever felt at a sporting event.

And that is for every minute of the five days.

Matches like that are exhausting to the fans as well as the players. The climax was none the less enthralling for the draw.

England (the nation) was awash with wide-eyed adulation and red eyed pride. With the glove on the other hand, imagine the hysteria if the home team can turn around the pathetic procession of Headingly.

I’m not expecting the drama of four years previous for a number of reasons, principal among them is the manner of the result in Yorkshire.

Toss won, England are humiliated with the bat due to a combination of helpful (but not impossible) pitch and atmospheric conditions, diabolical shot selection, disintegrating mental state, improved Australian bowling, followed by a bowling performance that the under 12s would have been embarrassed by.

The Australians have improved in most departments and will bring a significantly reinforced bucket of self-belief to south London.

The Australian team always talk a good game. In the past eleven months they haven’t walked the walk and by inference, actually haven’t believed what has come out of their mouths.

Unrealistic introspection is rarely helpful and this has been reflected in the highly inconsistent performances of the Ponting team during their loss in India and since, but especially in this series.

However, thanks (largely) to England’s ineptitude, the Australians had the swagger back in their steps and the invective back on their lips.

England, on the other hand, have the usual problems that losing teams encounter.

They need to change the starting XI and the debate has been wide as to whom is best suited to replace the woeful Bopara (obviously Ravi has been severely effected by Justin Langer’s dossier and will now step back to county cricket where his “swagger” can be more closely appreciated).

With 28 year-old Jonathon Trott (another former South African) now listed in the squad and Flintoff a certain starter no matter what the state of his knee, their selectors haven’t panicked.

Monty Panesar is in the 14 man squad, which may point to a dusty one at The Oval, and the corollary is that Nathan Hauritz will get a start at the expense of … Stuart Clark, the man who should have been in every Test of the series and was certainly the catalyst for the destruction at Headingly.

It doesn’t help if the Chairman of Selectors tells the press that you are the fourth best bowler in the attack. Australia’s problem is whom to leave out, England’s is who to put in.

The Dragons have merely had a hiccup, the veritable loss that is “good for you”, much like St Kilda to Essendon (Ross Lyon was talking like they deliberately lost because it was better in the long run to lose that one than to win!), and they won’t have to play in Canberra again this season.

But Australia have to beat a bit of a hoodoo at the Oval starting Thursday, just like England overcame theirs at Lords.

This should be an Aussie win, but history suggests we may be on the edge of our seats late on day five, just like we were in 2005.